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The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

"clearly demonstrated commitment" !!!

These f@ckers don't want to understand the era of statement-therapy is over. but can't blame them for an 8 years working habit.
They still think they are dealing with people like Zarif and Rouhani.

However, Iran should not do something that makes Biden look stupid and incompetent. That would be against our own interests.
Now it's the perfect time for reducing our tensions with the United States in statements, while at the same we postpone negotiations to the near future and buy time. We should welcome negotiations with open arms and maintain a respectful tone towards the Biden administration, pretend that we are after better relations with the US, while we continue to buy time and ignore them.
 
They still think they are dealing with people like Zarif and Rouhani.

However, Iran should not do something that makes Biden look stupid and incompetent. That would be against our own interests.
Now it's the perfect time for reducing our tensions with the United States in statements, while at the same we postpone negotiations to the near future and buy time. We should welcome negotiations with open arms and maintain a respectful tone towards the Biden administration, pretend that we are after better relations with the US, while we continue to buy time and ignore them.
I hope by the end of Biden regime every Iranian would have some enriched Uranium at home :azn:....Ok..it was a joke..but Yes absolutely we need Uranium and lots of it..for what purpose!!..let Israelis figure that out..!!
 
I hope by the end of Biden regime every Iranian would have some enriched Uranium at home :azn:....Ok..it was a joke..but Yes absolutely we need Uranium and lots of it..for what purpose!!..let Israelis figure that out..!!
We need to step up uranium mining as well. Our current uranium reserves are too insignificant for a self-sufficient nuclear program.
I've heard rumors that there are sizable reserves of uranium in Azerbaijan and Khorasan regions of Iran. Hopefully they're true.
 
We need to step up uranium mining as well. Our current uranium reserves are too insignificant for a self-sufficient nuclear program.
I've heard rumors that there are sizable reserves of uranium in Azerbaijan and Khorasan regions of Iran. Hopefully they're true.
Iran's Uranium reserve data is one of the most classified info in the country..Even during the shah it was kept away from the Americans...no one knows but I guess there should be enough if they decided to go for an industrial scale nuclear program..
 
I heard that Raisi administration,or to be precise foreign minister,lower Iranian request for gurantees that no US administration will withraw from JCPOA,since Biden team said they cant make commitments for other administration...to request that Biden give just guarantees that his administration will not leave JCPOA...lowest from this cant be..and they were not willing to give commitment even for own administration with excuse that it may lower Biden chances for re-election...and according to this source after this response Iranian government completly abandoned any negotiation except re entering current deal only after US lift all sanctioned related to JCPOA,Iranian banking and oil sector, and remove IRGC from FTO...now Iran not only request that Biden lift all sanctions that Trump invoked,but they also want Biden remove all sanctions that Obama failed to deliver,including those related to human rights and terror designation...which can make tricky since some of those require congress to remove
 
We need to step up uranium mining as well. Our current uranium reserves are too insignificant for a self-sufficient nuclear program.
I've heard rumors that there are sizable reserves of uranium in Azerbaijan and Khorasan regions of Iran. Hopefully they're true.

I don’t know where you been, but Iran already has uranium mines and by 2015 2/3rds of Iran had been surveyed for uranium mining.

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I heard that Raisi administration,or to be precise foreign minister,lower Iranian request for gurantees that no US administration will withraw from JCPOA,since Biden team said they cant make commitments for other administration...to request that Biden give just guarantees that his administration will not leave JCPOA...lowest from this cant be..and they were not willing to give commitment even for own administration with excuse that it may lower Biden chances for re-election...and according to this source after this response Iranian government completly abandoned any negotiation except re entering current deal only after US lift all sanctioned related to JCPOA,Iranian banking and oil sector, and remove IRGC from FTO...now Iran not only request that Biden lift all sanctions that Trump invoked,but they also want Biden remove all sanctions that Obama failed to deliver,including those related to human rights and terror designation...which can make tricky since some of those require congress to remove

We may well be starting to see the first signs that the west has begun to blink on the jcpoa,tho I personally wouldnt put much faith in anything that any us regime says.Nonetheless,the fact that he now feels that he publicly has to make this pledge,whereas before he was totally unwilling to give any sort of guarantee even in private, may be a sign that he has finally realised that the era of rouhanian appeasement is firmly at an end and that western concessions are now necessary if the deal is to be preserved,after all at this point the west has few,if in fact any,other alternative options to the jcpoa.
The next step is for iran to firmly hold out for the complete removal of all of the trump era sanctions.

US would only quit Iran nuclear deal if Tehran were to renege, Biden pledges
President makes commitment alongside Germany, France and UK not to repeat Donald Trump’s walkout on agreement

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/31/us-iran-nuclear-deal-tehran-joe-biden-pledge

Joe Biden has given a pledge that if the US returns to the Iran nuclear agreement, it will only subsequently leave if Tehran clearly breaks the terms of the deal.
The US president made the commitment, which addresses one of Iran’s key negotiating demands, in a joint statement issued with Germany, France and the UK. The statement followed a meeting on the margins of the G20 in Rome attended by Biden, Germany’s Angela Merkel, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Britain’s Boris Johnson.

The key paragraph of a lengthy statement read: “We welcome President Biden’s clearly demonstrated commitment to return the US to full compliance with the JCPOA [joint comprehensive plan of action] and to stay in full compliance, so long as Iran does the same.”

The pledge was welcomed by Mikhail Ulyanov, the Russian ambassador to multilateral bodies in Vienna, where talks on the future of the Iran nuclear deal have been on pause since June.
Throughout the talks Iran has been seeking an undertaking, ideally legally underpinned, that if Iran returns to the deal, future US administrations will not repeat the walkout of the previous president, Donald Trump, which was accompanied by the imposition of tighter economic sanctions on Iran’s financial institutions and political bodies.
Biden is hamstrung in the value of the guarantees he can give to Iran because the nuclear deal is not a signed treaty endorsed by the US Senate, and he cannot bind the hands of future US administrations.
However, the Biden pledge, underwritten by the main three European powers, may be a sign that the US wants to create a more positive atmosphere before the resumption of the Vienna talks that Iran has – after much pressure and delay – promised will happen at some point in November. There have already been six rounds of talks, but they broke off in June to allow the new Iranian government, led by the president, Ebrahim Raisi, to review its negotiating strategy.
During a speech to the G20 summit in Rome on Sunday, Biden said the US will respond to Iranian attacks on US interests in countries such as Syria, but implied that America preferred using economic leverage rather than military force if Iran refused to return to the negotiating table in Vienna to discuss the future of the 2015 nuclear deal.
He added the US was still paying the price of bad choices made by the Trump administration, including the decision to quit the nuclear deal in 2018. But he insisted he and European leaders at the summit had agreed diplomacy was the best way forward in handling Iran over the future of the nuclear deal. He said: “We came together to reiterate our shared belief that diplomacy is the best way to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and discussed how best to encourage Iran to resume serious good faith negotiations”.
It is not clear if his remarks means the US would disapprove if Israel launched military strikes against Iran if Israel believed Iran was close to being able to assemble the material needed to make a nuclear weapon.
The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said on Sunday that the United States was “absolutely in lock step” with Britain, Germany and France on getting Iran back into a nuclear deal, but added it was unclear if Tehran was willing to rejoin the talks in a “meaningful way”.
“It really depends on whether Iran is serious about doing that,” Blinken said of rejoining the nuclear talks. “All of our countries, working by the way with Russia and China, believe strongly that that would be the best path forward,” he added.
“But we do not yet know whether Iran is willing to come back to engage in a meaningful way,” Blinken said. “But if it isn’t, if it won’t, then we are looking together at all of the options necessary to deal with this problem.”
The shift in the US tone comes a week after a cyber-attack disabled Iran’s petrol stations, an attack attributed on Sunday by Brig Gen Gholamreza Jalali, the head of Iran’s civil defence organisation, to Israel and the US.
The west has become increasingly concerned that Iran’s delay is a subterfuge, and that Tehran has been using the pause to strengthen its stockpile of uranium, weaken the UN nuclear inspections process and become more familiar with the use of advanced centrifuges that can produce highly enriched uranium. The US is concerned that Iran’s “breakout” time for developing a nuclear weapon is reducing and that the value of returning to the deal is fast diminishing. It has been looking at alternative options if it decides that diplomacy will not work.

In a bid to entrench a revived deal further, Iran is also seeking pledges from the EU about its response if the US was to walk out of the deal a second time.
It wants firm pledges that the EU would put more money into Instex, the trading device that the EU set up to ensure Iran and the EU could evade US sanctions. It also wants the EU to allow China and Russia to join the scheme. Instex has largely been inoperable ever since it was set up by the EU with fanfare more than four years ago.
The US E3 joint statement issued in Rome at the margins of the G20 summit also contained no demand that Iran, as part of any agreement, commit to follow-on negotiations about what the west regards as its destabilising behaviour in the region. The Iranian foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, said in an interview published at the weekend that there was no need for the negotiation and the simplest solution was for Biden to issue an executive order saying he was returning to the nuclear deal and lifting sanctions.
Amir-Abdollahian said his administration was embracing a balanced foreign policy, a phrase implying that Iran is going to deprioritise relations with the west, including the main European powers.
 
I don’t know where you been, but Iran already has uranium mines and by 2015 2/3rds of Iran had been surveyed for uranium mining.
I don't know what part of "step up" you didn't understand, but I'm not really interested to know the answer either.
 
I don't know what part of "step up" you didn't understand, but I'm not really interested to know the answer either.

I don’t know what part of your nuclear expertise allows you make determination there needs to be a “step up”.

3 Uranium mines...some sources say up to 10. Yellowcake facility. UF6 conversion facility. uranium metal production lab, etc.

I don’t see evidence Iran is short on yellowcake or lacking a supply to tap into. Mining is expensive and mining for yellowcake/uranium is no exception.
 
I don’t know what part of your nuclear expertise allows you make determination there needs to be a “step up”.

3 Uranium mines...some sources say up to 10. Yellowcake facility. UF6 conversion facility. uranium metal production lab, etc.

I don’t see evidence Iran is short on yellowcake or lacking a supply to tap into. Mining is expensive and mining for yellowcake/uranium is no exception.
The part of expertise that you clearly lack, as demonstrated by your previous posts on the subject. The cute thing is that you always have a disrespectful tone in your posts, no matter the subject, while in almost every post you write on the nuclear issue you show you're terribly confused about the subject and lack even the basic knowledge.

Your post shows that you are completely clueless about the whole thing. I don't see why I need to even bother replying to such a low quality post but I just give it a try to teach you a thing or two and then I'll be done with you.

You can have 1000 uranium mines and 5000 nuclear facilities and yet it is their output that matters.

Bushehr currently operates with a single VVER-1000 reactor. This reactor requires a bit more than 25 tonnes of 3.5% enriched uranium per annum (27 tonnes in the form of uranium dioxide).

To produce 25 tonnes of 3.5% enriched uranium from a feed of natural uranium (0.711%) , Iran needs more or less 120 tonnes of natural uranium per year. Also, natural uranium found in Iran contains less U-235 than the 0.711% figure (around 0.6%) which makes enrichment more difficult and the output will be less as well.

Yellow cake (U3O8) is nearly 3.5 times heavier than 3.5% enriched uranium. So, just to make numbers simpler and round them, you can see that Iran needs at least 420 tonnes of yellow cake per year to operate its current nuclear reactor at Bushehr.

How much yellow cake does Iran have at the moment? The latest figure I found on the internet is about 80 tonnes of yellow cake. Salehi on April 7th said that Iran was in possession of 35 tonnes of yellow cake and it intends to increase this number to 100 tonnes in a mid-term plan. So, it is probable that Iran has even less than 80 tonnes of yellow cake. Here's the source for Salehi's claim in the first month of the current Iranian year:

Kamalvandi has already mentioned in another news that Iran's average yellow cake production has been about 4 tonnes per year over the last 15 years:

The only reason that Iran hasn't run out of yellow cake yet is because Iran imported hundreds of tonnes of natural uranium and yellow cake from Russia and Kazakhstan after the JCPOA. We need to step up uranium mining if we want to become completely independent in the fuel cycle.

If Iran wants a full-scale nuclear program, or at least nuclear independence for its 3 nuclear reactors that will be operational by 2025, Iran should step up its enrichment capacity to about 400,000 SWU (Kg U/year) and its yellow cake stockpile to over 1,250 tonnes. Iran's current output is nowhere near that and it is miles behind it.

Salehi in 1394 (2015) said that Iran has discovered new uranium reserves. It is suspected that Iran has uranium reserves in Northern Khorasan and Azerbaijan provinces of Iran. Iran needs to develop all of its uranium mines to the maximum capacity in the near future.

Related sources:
 
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Your post shows that you are completely clueless about the whole thing

So, it is probable that Iran has even less than 80 tonnes of yellow cake

Atomic Energy Organization of Iran spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi said on Monday that Iran has more than three tons of uranium enriched to 4 percent, and at least 1,000 tons of yellowcake. This is 10 times more than Iran is permitted to have under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal, he said.

https://www.jns.org/iran-has-10-times-the-enriched-uranium-allowed-by-the-jcpoa/

Thank god you are not leading Iran’s atomic agency your knowledge is even worse than your economic knowledge.

Like I said and what you failed to understand by screaming it doesn’t matter how many facilities iran has, is that Iran has the infrastructure in place to increase output when it needs to. But stock piling 5000+ tones of yellow cake has costs of storage, security, and maintenance on top of excavation costs.

Thus at this time, Iran has no need to “step up” yellowcake production outside of what Iran’s atomic agency has already approved in its development plan.

You have yet to provide any proof of why Iran needs to step up production outside of its current expanding production levels. Iran’s 100,000 SWU program is a long term goal that may take decades to reach if Iran returns to JCPOA for another decade.
 
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Need to clear up some misconceptions about Iran’s nuclear fuel cycle.

First of all Natanz was fueled by 600 ton yellowcake purchase made decades ago by Iran from South Africa.

By 2009 former IAEA inspector David Albright predicted 2/3rds of that supply was used up by NPF (Natanz pilot facility). Then became the question would Iran run out of yellowcake? Albright said if Iran was running low on yellowcake then by 2010 it would have to scale back uranium enrichment.

So what happened 2010 and beyond? Iran’s uranium enrichment massively expanded

Conclusion: Iran does not suffer from a yellowcake supply issue

Misconception #2: Iran gets most of its yellowcake from Russia and surrounding countries.


False. While it is true that JCPOA allowed Iran to access yellowcake imports the amount of yellowcake was actually pretty small.

The spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Behruz Kamalvandi, said Iran had imported 200t of yellow cake from Russia and Kazakhstan in exchange for the LEU. "On 28 December, we imported the final batch, which was 60t of yellow cake from Kazakhstan. This was in addition to what we had already received from Russia. In total, we have imported 200,000kg of yellow cake." He added: "It is a very good and valuable trade."


So in total from JCPOA onward (2015-2017) Iran imported 220 tons of yellowcake. Hardly “hundreds” of tons that people think. This amount was mostly to fuel Iran’s Russian made nuclear reactor and Tehran nuclear reactor for medical isotopes.

The JCPOA had a mechanism to protect Iran to have fuel for Bushehr reactor and Tehran medical reactor and that was if Iran returned the spent fuel rods to Russia and excess enriched uranium it would receive natural uranium or yellowcake in return. This was to protect Iran from getting screwed in the deal.

Misconception #3 : Iran only has 80 tons (or much less of yellowcake)

If the West thought Iran was truly short on yellowcake it could pull out of deal and forbid any party from supplying iran with yellowcake and Iran would run out of yellowcake in a year or two. Iran’s nuclear program would literally shut down from no fuel. Such a massive bottleneck would easily have been exploited by P5 + 1 to force Iran to agree to terms they want.

So obviously this didn’t happen because Iran's nuclear blackmail uranium supply is different from the JCPOA supply that is used to fuel Bushehr and Tehran reactor. There are two different yellowcake supplies.

Even Zionist lover David Albright did not seriously believe Iran would run out of yellowcake way back in 2009 let alone today when Iran’s nuclear program is generations (literally) ahead in technology.

Lastly Iran does not have a mining yellowcake problem, it has a processing bottleneck issue which is by design of JCPOA and Iran.

Let me explain

Iran has only one yellowcake processing plant in Ardakan. That plant can process about 75-100 tons annually from Iran’s uranium mines. It is then sent to Iran’s UF6 conversion facility.

So Iran’s uranium mines can produce:

10 tons
100 tons
1000 tons
10,000 tons
100,000 tons
etc
Etc

annually of yellowcake and it wouldn’t matter because Ardakan can only process 100 tons of it annually (possibly more at this point not sure).

Thus the issue has never been a uranium supply. It has been A design where Iran has not built additional uranium/yellowcake processing facilities to supplement Ardakan.

now that doesn’t mean iran couldn’t have built a small scale reprocessing site to fuel a SECERT weapons program. But the processing capacity needed to fund Iran’s eventual 100K SWU program would need processing plants in excess of 1,000+ tons annually of processing capacity.

Iran has yet to take the step of building massive reprocessing facilities because

A) would end any attempt at JCPOA reconciliation

B) Iran’s nuclear blackmail enrichment capacity is fine under the current 100 ton a year reprocessing production by Ardakan

Conclusion: Iran’s uranium mines are ready to supply large amounts of yellowcake to Ardakan and other facilities once the decision is made by leadership to expand reprocessing capacity.

At this time there isn’t a demand for larger reprocessing capacity in addition to current JCPOA negotiations political climate.

Furthermore, Large amounts of natural uranium sitting in storage facilities waiting to one day be reprocessed, is a risk for Mossad sabatoge attempts that have happened in the past.
 
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