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The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

If you Iranian's fall for the expected "good cop bad cop routine" I swear you deserve to be bombed. Biden will now play the good cop. If Iran falls for it then you have no guarantee that comes 2023 and Trump or another Trumpist wins you will get jacked again.
I believe Iran is facing similar issues as Pakistan did, stooges, agents and planted politicians working on behest of someone else, protecting their interests and getting back some personal, political and financial gains as well.

Someone having significant stake in M.E region told me that a known figure in Iran is more loyal to UAE aka US than he can ever be to Iran. And the never ending property portfolio he holds in UAE.
 
I believe Iran is facing similar issues as Pakistan did, stooges, agents and planted politicians working on behest of someone else, protecting their interests and getting back some personal, political and financial gains as well.

Someone having significant stake in M.E region told me that a known figure in Iran is more loyal to UAE aka US than he can ever be to Iran. And the never ending property portfolio he holds in UAE.
I am apt to believe you. They appear to have deeply conflicted polity like Pakistan but without the professional weight of Pakistan Army mitigating the course of policy. Also they have the revolution playing it's spoing role which make matters even more complicated. And there must be corrupt elements who have been bought out with self interest rather than insterest of the Iranian state.

How else do you explain Iran's rather schizoid relationship with West which has been source of 40 years of anti Iran policies. The costly Iran-Iraq war was openly supported by West. You see the visceral hatred that comes out of Iran from Washington.

Yet after all that Iran still keeps what is a apologetic behaviour with West. Instead of just saying 'fcuk you' and placing their mast with rising China which is a natural ally given the geo-political reality Iran still keeps a very difficult position. I think this exposes internal divisions.
 
I am apt to believe you. They appear to have deeply conflicted polity like Pakistan but without the professional weight of Pakistan Army mitigating the course of policy. Also they have the revolution playing it's spoing role which make matters even more complicated. And there must be corrupt elements who have been bought out with self interest rather than insterest of the Iranian state.

How else do you explain Iran's rather schizoid relationship with West which has been source of 40 years of anti Iran policies. The costly Iran-Iraq war was openly supported by West. You see the visceral hatred that comes out of Iran from Washington.

Yet after all that Iran still keeps what is a apologetic behaviour with West. Instead of just saying 'fcuk you' and placing their mast with rising China which is a natural ally given the geo-political reality Iran still keeps a very difficult position. I think this exposes internal divisions.
That is why this regime can not be trusted.. there are so many stooges and traitors that it is incredibly difficult to find out if their stance is truly genuine or not! To be fair, this was true at some point in the past but with the death of Khomeini and the cucking of Iranian society (mismanagement of IR) it is far from the original ideals. Now some lowlife sardars of the forum can come here and talk about oh the great struggle against the West but they are fooling nobody. Members of the Iranian regime, those with and without clerical outfit are literally stealing the nation's wealth and are enriching themselves. Corruption is infested in this regime. However there are some great patriotic people within the army and the IRGC and perhaps some official or two in the entire apparatus that have Iran's best interest at heart. But i doubt they are being heard. We will see how it plays out but i expect IR to again befriend the West and throw its supporters and slogans under the bus.
I believe Iran is facing similar issues as Pakistan did, stooges, agents and planted politicians working on behest of someone else, protecting their interests and getting back some personal, political and financial gains as well.

Someone having significant stake in M.E region told me that a known figure in Iran is more loyal to UAE aka US than he can ever be to Iran. And the never ending property portfolio he holds in UAE.
Pakistan and Iran can not be compared. In Pakistan there is the army with strong public support tasked with keeping the sovereignty and independence of Pakistan..if some idiot in Pakistan stands up and tries to hijack the Pakistani state the army will stand up to them. In Iran it is different the army is kinda sidelined.. Iranian regular army generals have no say in any affair at all.
 
Pakistan and Iran can not be compared. In Pakistan there is the army with strong public support tasked with keeping the sovereignty and independence of Pakistan..if some idiot in Pakistan stands up and tries to hijack the Pakistani state the army will stand up to them. In Iran it is different the army is kinda sidelined.. Iranian regular army generals have no say in any affair at all.
Bingo. I am by upbringing very pro liberal democracy but you will find me 100% supporting the Pakistan Army. The reason is not because it is not beyond any mistakes but within the Pakistani context the ONLY institution that carries the interest of the state as it's primary driver. In fact I would say the PA is the foundation and steel frame around which the Pakistani state exists. Take PA out and Pakistan would literally implode into a ethnic, sectarian, clan, regional civil war.

In Iran you also had Iranian Army which would have played it's role and mitigated the crazy political currents but in 1979 the revolution essentially undid the professional Iranian Army which was looked to much as a royalist entity. IRGC effectively reduced the army into it's rump position today which is rather sad. Or else by now you would have had a coup and fixed Iran like General Evren did in Turkey.

By the way my interest in Iran is not just superficial or personal interest. I regard Iran the MOST important state to the future of Pakistan then any other. More than Turkey [which I love] or China [which I don't like but accept it for strategic reasons. Iran is a pivotal state for Pakistan. The history of Indus Basin has been influenced by Iranian plateau going back 5,000 years ago. Sadly most Pakistani's today are so brainwashed with sectarian bias and Saudi influence that they can't see this.
 
Whats especially bizarre here in reading this is that there seems not the slightest sense of any urgency on the side of the biden regime regarding rejoining the jcpoa,its almost as tho they consider that they literally have all the time in the world to play around with,yet in reality they have at best a mere 4-5 months tops,assuming that iran does not quit the ap or further reduce its compliance in the meantime.
They either genuinely believe that time is somehow on their side,hence the moronic insistence that iran should be the one to reurn to full compliance first,or they like the chump regime think,despite all the obvious proofs to the contrary,that iran in desperation will compromise on the idea of a "better deal".The only other alternative is that the biden regime has no real intention of rejoining the jcpoa but will leave it up to rouhanis successor regime to finally pronounce it dead.
Do they genuinely not realise that there will be no more deals after this?,that this was quite literally the litmus test for western political trustworthiness and reliability?.
Ladies and gentlemen....,I give you the new biden regime......sadly tho,so far it looks to be little different than any of its predecessors....
:rolleyes:
Biden Administration Dodges Iran Offer to Coordinate Nuclear Deal Return
https://www.newsweek.com/biden-administration-rejects-iran-offer-coordinate-nuclear-deal-return-1566310
President Joe Biden's administration has dodged an Iranian offer to coordinate both countries' return to their nuclear deal commitments, arguing that the Islamic Republic must first reinstate the restrictions suspended in response to the U.S. having abandoned the agreement entirely nearly three years ago.

The agreement, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was reached in 2015 by the U.S. and Iran, alongside China, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom.

Former President Donald Trump left the accord in 2018. Facing severe U.S. sanctions, Iran has begun enriching uranium beyond designated caps, something the Biden administration says is blocking a U.S. return to the deal.

"If Iran comes back into full compliance with its obligations under the JCPOA, the United States would do the same," State Department spokesperson Ned Price told reporters at his first press conference Tuesday, "and then we would then use that as a platform to build a longer and a stronger agreement that also addresses other areas of concern."


He emphasized, however, that "we are a long way from that."

Tehran has vowed to reinstate these limits, which Iranian officials argue were taken within the framework of the deal's dispute resolution clause, but only if Washington—as the party who first walked away—adhered to its obligations.

In an interview Monday with CNN, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif proposed a different approach, one in which both countries would synchronize their JCPOA-related moves under the supervision of the European Union.

The top Iranian diplomat said that, in his role as JCPOA commissioner, EU Foreign Affairs High Representative Josep Borrell could "choreograph the actions that are needed to be taken by the United States and the actions that are needed to be taken by Iran."

He suggested that is the best way forward.

"Clearly, actions that Iran takes have always been monitored and certified by the IAEA and we have shown that we fulfill our promises," Zarif said. "The side that has not been able to show it fulfill its promises has been the United States, and as I said, the United States has to prove its bona fides, we have already proven our bona fides."

He repeated his offer to pave a path toward resolving the dispute.

"If we are away from the strict limitations of the nuclear agreement its because the United States tried to impose a full economic war on Iran," Zarif said. "Now if it stops that, we will go back into full compliance."

ned, price, state, department, press, briefing

U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price speaks at his first daily press briefing at the State Department in Washington, D.C., on February 2. NICHOLAS KAMM/Pool/AFP/Getty Images

Borrell and his team, for their part, "are working extremely hard to get the JCPOA back on track," spokesperson Peter Stano told the Agence France-Presse.

Price said the U.S. diplomats had not yet opened the issue with the Iranian side. And though he said the negotiation of a new nuclear deal was an issue that "cannot wait" and a challenge that the new administration had to "tackle immediately," he indicated that Iran was "a far cry" away from taking initial steps needed to get diplomacy back on track.

"Iran has distanced itself from compliance on a number of fronts, and there are many steps in that process," Price said.

Among them he listed "consulting with our allies, consulting with our partners, consulting with Congress before we're reaching the point where we're going to engage directly with the Iranians and willing to entertain any sort of proposal, especially since we've been very clear about the proposition we have put on the table."

The State Department did not immediately respond to Newsweek's request for comment.

Reuters later cited an unnamed U.S. official as saying "there is no rejection" at the moment.

"We have not begun negotiating with Iran, or with anyone else, because our priority is to consult" with partners in the nuclear deal and in the region, the official was cited as saying.

Iran has always denied seeking a nuclear weapon, but the international community has expressed skepticism toward this claim. Still, the JCPOA was built to assuage those fears, imposing tight restrictions on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

Biden and a number of top officials, some of whom were involved in the implementation of the JCPOA during former President Barack Obama's administration, have criticized Trump's decision to leave the agreement, but have so far dismissed a hasty return.
 
Biden Weighs Easing Iran’s Pain Without Lifting Key Sanctions

The Biden administration is weighing ways to ease Iran’s financial pain without lifting crushing economic sanctions -- including on oil sales -- as a step toward reviving the 2015 nuclear deal abandoned by former President Donald Trump.

Some options U.S. officials are debating include providing backing for International Monetary Fund lending to Tehran for coronavirus relief and easing up on sanctions that have stymied international coronavirus aid from getting into Iran, according to four people familiar with the administration’s thinking. Such moves could be justified on humanitarian grounds.

President Joe Biden could also sign an executive order reversing Trump’s decision to quit the multinational deal, according to the people. But issuing sanctions waivers to allow Iran to sell oil on the international market isn’t currently under serious consideration, according to the people.

“Over recent months there’s been a lot of thinking in both Europe and the Democratic camp on a number of immediate measures the U.S. can realistically take,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She described the ideas under consideration as measures that “can still give Iran tangible relief.”

Reviving the Iran deal has emerged as one of the Biden administration’s highest-profile foreign policy challenges, part of a slew of actions meant to halt or reverse initiatives championed by Trump’s national security team. That includes freezing a planned troop drawdown in Germany, withdrawing support for offensive actions by Saudi Arabia in the war in Yemen and reviewing the previous administration’s outreach to North Korea.

Biden’s National Security Council held a meeting on Mideast issues Friday that was believed to focus on Iran, but White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said on Twitter that “no pending policy announcements” were expected from the gathering.

Biden has long criticized Trump’s decision to quit the Iran accord, saying it reduced the “breakout period” Tehran needs to build a nuclear weapon, but getting back into the deal is also fraught. Iran’s leaders are demanding an end to U.S. sanctions and have since breached the agreement by enriching uranium beyond levels permitted by the accord, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.


The Biden administration insists that Iran return to compliance with the JCPOA before the U.S. goes further, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said any full return is still a “long ways off.” But Iran says the U.S. needs to make the first move, and President Hassan Rouhani’s government is taking a series of steps aimed at increasing pressure on the U.S. for a speedy deal.

Robert Malley, the State Department’s new envoy for Iran negotiations, declined to comment. State Department spokesman Ned Price said the U.S. wants to consult with European allies that were part of the deal before allowing coronavirus aid or any other relief. Those nations were infuriated when Trump quit the accord and reimposed a raft of economic sanctions.

“Before we announce any changes in policy along those lines we would want to make sure we’ve undertaken those consultations, and we’re in the process of doing those now,” Price said.

Those talks began on Friday, according to U.K. Foreign Minister Dominic Raab.

Yet it’s still early days for the Biden administration. Malley was appointed only last week and Wendy Sherman, an architect of the nuclear deal who is Biden’s pick to be deputy secretary of state, has yet to have her Senate confirmation hearing.

Iran’s key demand for a return to compliance is for the removal of crippling restrictions the U.S. put on the country’s ability to sell oil. In a sign that the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign is losing effectiveness, the country’s oil exports have risen steadily in recent months, though they remain far below historic levels.

Skeptics fear that easing oil sanctions now would deny the U.S. a key source of leverage and make Iran less likely to go back into the deal. At the same time, oil analysts at Rapidan Energy group foresee an additional 500,000 Iranian barrels of oil coming back on the market in the next two to three months, possibly with U.S. approval.

“To do a deal reset that requires compliance for compliance, the Biden administration recognizes they’ve got to allow those barrels back on the water,” said Scott Modell, managing director at Rapidan. “The final pathway hasn’t been paved yet, but I think they’re working on it.”

One of the biggest challenges the new administration faces is the wave of sanctions Trump imposed late in his administration targeting Iran over its sponsorship of terrorism. That includes the decision to impose terrorism-related sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank. Any sanctions relief -- even on humanitarian grounds -- could fail to deliver if the terror designation remains because the central bank oversees virtually all the country’s financial activity.

“Unless Iran’s central bank is going to be allowed to freely operate in the international banking system, Iran is not going to accept returning to compliance with the JCPOA,” Kenneth Katzman, a senior analyst on Middle East issues at the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, told an Atlantic Council event last week. “The central bank is the hub of Iran’s international banking activity.”

There are a few signs of movement. South Korea is in the final stages of talks with the U.S. about unfreezing some of the billions of dollars of Iranian money trapped in the Asian country due to sanctions, the Yonhap News Agency reported. That came after Iran released the crew of a South Korean-flagged ship that was seized in the Persian Gulf on Jan. 4.

The U.S. Treasury Department could also issue licenses allowing limited trade with Iran, or offer assurances that trade via a humanitarian channel set up by European nations known as Instex won’t be affected. Although the Trump administration insisted humanitarian trade with Iran was allowed, many participants felt they didn’t get the safeguards they needed to go ahead.

Yet as much as the Biden team would like to move carefully and in lockstep with Europe, Iran and the U.S. are heading toward a crisis at the end of February that’s likely to make reviving the deal even harder. On Feb. 21, Iran has threatened to stop abiding by what’s known as the Additional Protocol -- a series of voluntary measures that allow for snap nuclear inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

One IAEA diplomat, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations, described the sides as sleepwalking into conflict. On Feb. 1 and Feb. 2, the IAEA circulated restricted documents to diplomats confirming fresh breaches to the accord, and Iran is moving forward with higher levels of uranium enrichment at both its Fordow and Natanz facilities.

“The United States needs to come back into compliance and Iran will be ready immediately to respond,” Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told CNN this week. “The timing is not the issue, the issue is whether the United States, the new administration, wants to follow the failed policies of the Trump administration or not.”

 

Biden is purposely very minimalistic and big picture guy when it comes to JCPOA. He rarely says the word “Iran”. Rarely commits himself to more than one phrase.

He actually replied the Iranian leader within hours. Is there a way out? Yes

Tahrimhaa dar amal zaeef mishan vali dar harf mimaanand.

Dar amal raasti azmaayi mishan vali ruye kaaghaz hastand.
 
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He is trying to come across as if he is not "soft" on Iran, but this current tactics is rather silly. He should have just lifted sanctions and then asked Iran to return to its own pre-sanction commitments. Sanctions take less time to impose/remove than physical nuclear commitments. He has now put himself in a tangled situation. Obviously there are talks behind the scenes and he has certainly eased sanctions to some extent but not openly declared them but this was not needed. He unnecessarily wasted time. At this point, Iran has learned to adapt under sanctions, so this game is starting to get to its end point. I don't think he will, but if he does try to drag his foot for much longer, the deal is over.
 
He is trying to come across as if he is not "soft" on Iran, but this current tactics is rather silly. He should have just lifted sanctions and then asked Iran to return to its own pre-sanction commitments. Sanctions take less time to impose/remove than physical nuclear commitments. He has now put himself in a tangled situation. Obviously there are talks behind the scenes and he has certainly eased sanctions to some extent but not openly declared them but this was not needed. He unnecessarily wasted time. At this point, Iran has learned to adapt under sanctions, so this game is starting to get to its end point. I don't think he will, but if he does try to drag his foot for much longer, the deal is over.


A successful deal in US is a deal of an “entering president “ not a deal of an “exiting president “.

JCPOA and Taliban deal were deals of an exiting president and did not go easy.

Iran should not make any major moves after year 2 of Biden.
 
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Ayatollah Khamenei:
The Americans and the Europeans have no right to set any condition, because they have violated their obligations, and the side that has to set conditions is the Islamic Republic because it has kept its commitments. Therefore, Iran will return to its obligations after the United States terminated all sanctions in practice and not in words or on paper, and these termination of sanctions verified by Iran. This is the definitive and irreversible policy of the Islamic Republic.


termination of all sanctions, not lifting, easing, suspending, termination of applying or similar phrases that traitors used in their deal (JCPOA). with this condition, Iran's leader is setting way more conditions (obligations) for other parties of JCPOA that what was signed. you wanted a new deal, here is your new deal!

Iran's condition for returning to JCPOA commitments: Removing all sanctions

  • Feb 7, 2021
On the anniversary of the historical pledging of allegiance of Air Force commanders with Imam Khomeini [known as the Homafaran Allegiance] on February 8, 1979, a number of commanders and staff of the Air Force of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army met with Imam Khamenei this morning, February 7, 2021. In this meeting, Imam Khamenei stated that the side with the right to set conditions for the continuation of the JCPOA deal is Iran, and its irrevocable condition is that the United States must remove all sanctions, and not just on paper but in action.
Imam Khamenei stated, “If they want Iran to return to its JCPOA commitments, the US should remove all sanctions in action. After they have done this, we will check if the sanctions have truly been removed. Once this is done, we will resume our JCPOA commitments.”
The Leader of the Islamic Revolution emphasized, “On the issue of sanctions, first of all, no one in the Islamic Republic believes what those incompetent prattlers say – whether they are in European countries or in the US. Secondly, if we want to be reasonable, the US and the three European countries do not have the right to set terms and conditions because they have violated all of their JCOPA commitments. They have not honored any of their commitments.”
His Eminence stressed that the US continues to make miscalculations regarding Iran as they still do not have a correct understanding of the Iranian nation, “One of these miscalculations concerned the sedition that took place in the year 1388 AH. At that time the US President officially supported the sedition thinking that it would put an end to the Islamic Republic.”
He stated that the imposition of unprecedented sanctions with the purpose of bringing Iran to its knees was another miscalculation committed by the US, and said, “One of those “first-rate fools” said that they would celebrate New Year 2019 in Tehran. That person has been sent to history‘s trash can, and his boss has also been kicked out of the White House with disgrace, but the Islamic Republic is still standing strong on its feet, with God’s grace.”
Imam Khamenei invited those who have unrealistic estimations of US power and that of some other countries to look at recent events in the US. He explained, “The scandalous events that have taken place in the US recently are not minor events, and they should not be considered to be the mere downfall of an incompetent President. Rather, they are a manifestation of the decline of the US reputation, power and social system.”
Referring to statements made by some eminent political personalities in the US, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution said, “They themselves state that the social system of the US has deteriorated from within, and some have even spoken of a post-US era.”
His Eminence added, “If something similar to what occurred in the US had occurred in any other part of the world – particularly in countries with which the US is at odds – they would not have stopped covering it in their news, but the mass media empire is in their control. So they try to show that the conflict has finished, but it is far from over.”
The Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Armed Forces stated that the reason why some regimes that are dependent on the US – in particular, the Zionist regime – are distressed and stunned and the reason for their recent ranting and raving is their fear and anxiety about the reality of the US decline in international and domestic areas.
Stating that one of the ways for increasing a country’s power is to strengthen the Armed Forces in proportion with regional and international events, Imam Khamenei praised recent military maneuvers and said, “Carrying out such great, impressive maneuvers, despite the existence of sanctions, gives us confidence that national security has been ensured by the children of the country who are in the Armed Forces. This is truly a source of pride.”
 
The parties can revive the JCPOA by:

  • The Biden administration committing to a reversal of Trump’s 2018 decision to exit the JCPOA, accompanied by approval for Iran receiving a $5 billion International Monetary Fund loan to contend with the COVID-19 pandemic and action ensuring that humanitarian exemptions to U.S. sanctions are honoured.
  • Iran developing a timetable, in consultation with the JCPOA’s Joint Commission and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to completely reverse its breaches of the nuclear deal within two to three months. Tehran will need to dismantle excess centrifuges and blend down or ship out the enriched uranium stockpiles that go beyond what the deal allows.
  • The U.S. preparing to rescind Trump-era sanctions pending IAEA confirmation that Iran’s nuclear activity is fully compliant with its JCPOA obligations. The parties could stagger these steps in parallel.
  • All parties laying the groundwork for follow-up negotiations that identify opportunities for cooperative, rather than adversarial engagement on issues of mutual concern. A regional dialogue, supported by the U.S., UN and a core group of European states, could focus first on the conflict in Yemen, where all sides have an interest in ending a costly war and a humanitarian disaster.
 
I`ve come across this claim in the western media,but have been unable to find any source for it as the various western media are simply parroting each other[literally] without supplying any details,is there any local iranian or credible non western source for this claim?
Zarif: compensation not pre-condition for reviving nuclear deal
He said it's not a precondition but we will discuss it when US is back in the deal .

It's part of his interview with Fareed zakaria on CNN. apparently western media didn't like the second part of the answer!
 
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