The End of Dollar Hegemony? Thinkers forum · Zhang Weiwei & Aleksandr Dugin & Ejaz Akram

[REhorror]

We can only hope.

 

[Indos]

it doesn't matter who owns and operates the field. If you go to any well site in Indonesia you will see it littered with equipment and personnel from western firms.

LOL, some of my families are in oil and gas sector, some has experience working in UAE, Qatar, and European nation. One of them work in British Petroleoum in Indonesia. Those are young people. Graduates that cannot be absorbed by SOE like Pertamina will work in national private owned companies or foreign companies abroad.

Do you think our university graduate in oil and gas sectors are jobless and the job is done by Westerners instead ? We have many state and private owned universities who produce a lot engineers in that sector every year. Even one of my cousin get hired by Dutch survey company with home base in Singapore after he graduated from one of Indonesian universities, basically he is fresh graduate. Now he leave the job and made his own survey company in Indonesia, still below 40 years old.



LOCAL CONTENT IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY

Many drilling and drilling equipment companies are Indonesian local companies as we also have regulation for minimum local content in oil and gas sector. I also have one family member as former CEO of Indonesia private owned drilling companies so I understand this sector quite well.

Many drilling equipment are also made in Indonesia.

PT Bukaka, owned by Yusuf Kalla

This is the information coming from the news

Jambaran Tiung Biru Project will be on stream this year. The project is done by 100 percent Indonesian workers and companies, beside PT Pertamina drilling service, there are 42 local companies contributing on the project. Project cost is 1.5 billion USD. It is large gas block with 2.5 trillion Cubic Feet reserve

Here see some of Indonesian local companies made equipment for the Jambaran project

Dukung Target Pemerintah, PDSI Berinvestasi Rig Baru | Pertamina

Target pemerintah mencapai lifting minyak 1 juta barel dan gas 12 miliar standar kaki kubik per hari pada 2030 mendorong PDSI meningkatkan investasi mulai 2021.

www.pertamina.com

WHO WE ARE​

PT. Petrodrill Manufaktur Indonesia is an API certified leading Engineering and Manufacturing Company for Drilling Rig and Drilling Components such as Substructure, Mast, Crown Block, Mud Pump, Sheave, Drawwork, Mud/Water Tank, Loading Ram, Poorboy Gas Separator, and many others.

We understand every customer is unique. Therefor, PT. Petrodrill Manufaktur Indonesia provide solutions according to customer’s specific needs to increase their productivity.

https://www.petrodrill.co.id/about-us.html

Another one, local company made equipment for Jimbaran gas project. This is state owned enterprises

--------------------------------------

Second biggest oil and gas company in Indonesia is Medco Energy which also has overseas operation like in Mexico, own by Hilmi Panigoro

They also enter renewable energy sector in geothermal and solar. Singapore depends on this company to supply two gas pipe line to that city state, the company has bough all Conoco Philips operation in Indonesia this year.

 

[SaadH]

You are less smart than average Chinese.
No, paper money is not backed by oil. It’s your Iq. Japan invents Walkman, Germany first automobile. What invention did Russia? Thermobombastic flamethrower?

Petro dollars says otherwise. Without Saudi and other Gulf arabs' 50 year generosity, dollar would be worth less than toilet paper.

 

[Viet]

Petro dollars says otherwise. Without Saudi and other Gulf arabs' 50 year generosity, dollar would be worth less than toilet paper.

Ask Venezuela
They have oil but no toilet paper.

 

[Luosifen]

A propaganda liar of Russia and an unknown thinker of China dreaming of the end dollar.

The world is better off if they spend effort on how ending global warming.

You've given no credible argument that refutes the claims made in the video, merely your personal opinion. That the dollar will decline from its current near-monopoly status in the coming decades has already begun, quite simply as China, Russia, India, ASEAN, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America begin trading using currencies besides USD. Less demand for USD, less ability for the USA to interfere via sanctions. The speakers never said that the USD would disappear (it will obviously still be needed to do business with the USA and its bloc), but when nations outside US control are trading with each other why pay a transaction fee to a US middleman? Plus, they'd be adding the risk of getting their assets seized or business dealings halted for violating whatever domestic laws the US comes up with when the trade deals of these nations have nothing to do with the USA at all.

 

[jhungary]

State-owned enterprises still dominating geothermal development in Indonesia

Geothermal operation and development is still largely dominated by state-owned enterprises in Indonesia.

www.thinkgeoenergy.com

Indonesia's Pertamina targets 17% rise in 2022 oil, gas output- exec​

A Pertamina fuel station in Labuan Bajo on Flores Island, Indonesia April 7, 2018. REUTERS/Henning Gloystein

JAKARTA, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Indonesian energy company PT Pertamina Hulu Energi aims to boost its oil and gas output this year by 17% to 1.04 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, including output from overseas assets, its chief executive said on Thursday.

Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy Editing by Ed Davies

Indonesia's Pertamina targets 17% rise in 2022 oil, gas output- exec

Indonesian energy company PT Pertamina Hulu Energi aims to boost its oil and gas output this year by 17% to 1.04 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, including output from overseas assets, its chief executive said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

First of all, the Strength of the Dollar is NOT OPEC(Petrodollar) like most people claim. The strength of USD is their status as Commodity, like gold, silver, salt and etc. USD was traded at a volume of 8 trillion dollar a day thru SWIFT. and that's just thru SWIFT alone, that show you how much demand the USD command. And as long as that demand stays, you cannot dethrone the USD.

On the other hand, at the best of time, Oil Industry as a whole worth upward to 3 trillion dollars a year, that's mighty expensive but if you compared to the sheer volume of trade the USD command, which is over 2 quadrillion dollars a year, that is peanuts.

Secondly, Russian oil and gas industry worth around 400 billion a year pre-war. Probably cheaper now with sanction, even the entire might of Russian gas and oil business replacing dollar with Rouble, the effect is quite small, on the other hand, country that buy oil and gas from Russia (China, India, Africa and so on) don't really spend Rouble in their own country, which mean they would have to convert their own currency from local currency to rouble, and there are no way you can do it currently without converting to USD or Euro first. Otherwise clearing house simply won't buy that order.

Thirdly, China is an export driven economy, with almost 47% of its GDP come from export. Which mean they would need to keep Yuan low in order to make profit (you can get more Yuan from foreign currency if Yuan is low) and in this case, net currency throw into China not out, which mean world circulation is low, and that's why Yuan only take up 3 or 4% of world currency reserve and why China restrict Yuan trade only to domestic customer.

This is not going to change anything, unless country like India or Rwanda or whoever that buy Russian oil start using Rouble as legal tender, that probably still won't change anything.

 

[Indos]

First of all, the Strength of the Dollar is NOT OPEC(Petrodollar) like most people claim. The strength of USD is their status as Commodity, like gold, silver, salt and etc. USD was traded at a volume of 8 trillion dollar a day thru SWIFT. and that's just thru SWIFT alone, that show you how much demand the USD command. And as long as that demand stays, you cannot dethrone the USD.

On the other hand, at the best of time, Oil Industry as a whole worth upward to 3 trillion dollars a year, that's mighty expensive but if you compared to the sheer volume of trade the USD command, which is over 2 quadrillion dollars a year, that is peanuts.

Secondly, Russian oil and gas industry worth around 400 billion a year pre-war. Probably cheaper now with sanction, even the entire might of Russian gas and oil business replacing dollar with Rouble, the effect is quite small, on the other hand, country that buy oil and gas from Russia (China, India, Africa and so on) don't really spend Rouble in their own country, which mean they would have to convert their own currency from local currency to rouble, and there are no way you can do it currently without converting to USD or Euro first. Otherwise clearing house simply won't buy that order.

Thirdly, China is an export driven economy, with almost 47% of its GDP come from export. Which mean they would need to keep Yuan low in order to make profit (you can get more Yuan from foreign currency if Yuan is low) and in this case, net currency throw into China not out, which mean world circulation is low, and that's why Yuan only take up 3 or 4% of world currency reserve and why China restrict Yuan trade only to domestic customer.

This is not going to change anything, unless country like India or Rwanda or whoever that buy Russian oil start using Rouble as legal tender, that probably still won't change anything.

I said the energy sector will accelerate the shift, I never mean Rubel backed Russian oil transaction as the main force of that shift from USD domination to more balance one. Look on my second post in first page when I tried to explain it to @Viet

Many Central Banks have already tried to move away from USD domination transaction and of course this shift will take times to reach the target to have more balance trading system instead of dominated by USD.

The use of USD as national reserve in many countries will also likely to fall gradually as many countries are now not as confident as before with their USD reserve after Western sanction on Russia, and the volume of non USD transaction in international trade will likely to increase due to many Central Banks swap agreement.

-------------------------------------------------------

Bank Indonesia and The People's Bank of China have renewed the Bilateral Currency Swap Arrangement (BCSA) on January 21, 2022. The Agreement allows for the exchange of local currencies between the two central banks of up to CNY250 billion or IDR550 trillion (about USD 38.8 billion equivalent).

Bank Indonesia and The People’s Bank Of China Renew The Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement

www.bi.go.id

 

[Han Patriot]

You are less smart than average Chinese.
No, paper money is not backed by oil. It’s your Iq. Japan invents Walkman, Germany first automobile. What invention did Russia? Thermobombastic flamethrower?

Lol. That's what happens when the ignorant don't understand fiat currency. Money is a means of exchange, ultimately it has to get exchanged for services or goods. Why do you think China is using dollars to build infrastructure secure minerals all around the world. Because essentially dollar is useless if resource based countries don't back it, hence why the petrol dollar backed by Saudi oil was so important. Russia is actually one of the richest countries in terms of real physical wealth on earth. Russia resources coupled with Chinese industrial base and technology can really threaten the dollar dominance. Imagine this, why would a sovereign country only opt for a currency which always threaten to sanction them? A logical and sand sovereign country would hedge themselves. China is actually fighting for a much fairer system, away from the centuries old exploitative Western system. Now I am not saying China is an angel but competition is good for the world, it provides alternatives and gives others a choice. I am being neutral here.

First of all, the Strength of the Dollar is NOT OPEC(Petrodollar) like most people claim. The strength of USD is their status as Commodity, like gold, silver, salt and etc. USD was traded at a volume of 8 trillion dollar a day thru SWIFT. and that's just thru SWIFT alone, that show you how much demand the USD command. And as long as that demand stays, you cannot dethrone the USD.

On the other hand, at the best of time, Oil Industry as a whole worth upward to 3 trillion dollars a year, that's mighty expensive but if you compared to the sheer volume of trade the USD command, which is over 2 quadrillion dollars a year, that is peanuts.

Secondly, Russian oil and gas industry worth around 400 billion a year pre-war. Probably cheaper now with sanction, even the entire might of Russian gas and oil business replacing dollar with Rouble, the effect is quite small, on the other hand, country that buy oil and gas from Russia (China, India, Africa and so on) don't really spend Rouble in their own country, which mean they would have to convert their own currency from local currency to rouble, and there are no way you can do it currently without converting to USD or Euro first. Otherwise clearing house simply won't buy that order.

Thirdly, China is an export driven economy, with almost 47% of its GDP come from export. Which mean they would need to keep Yuan low in order to make profit (you can get more Yuan from foreign currency if Yuan is low) and in this case, net currency throw into China not out, which mean world circulation is low, and that's why Yuan only take up 3 or 4% of world currency reserve and why China restrict Yuan trade only to domestic customer.

This is not going to change anything, unless country like India or Rwanda or whoever that buy Russian oil start using Rouble as legal tender, that probably still won't change anything.

You don't seem to understand how fiat currencies work. US Dollar is dominant because post WW2, most industrial nations and Saudis agree to use it as the medium of exchange. It was initially backed by gold until overprinting in the 70s made Nixon abandon the gold backing. Now dollar is essentially a piece of paper built based on trust. As long as you trust it, it will have power, the moment people question it, the power starts to dissipate.

China being the world largest market and producer made a bargain with the devil. It benefitted China but now it is time for a fairer system, we essentially traded our sweat and blood to build up the infrastructure and industrial base. China the only country on earth with the most diverse industrial base, not the most advanced but most diverse, essentially if you look at the tech scale.

Thats why US was so pissed with the BRI, it was essentially trading in Rmb, we gave out loans in Rmb then the host country uses the RMB to buy Chinese goods and servuces to build critical infrastructure. These infrastructure will. Enable trade, so they have to earn back RMB to pay off our loan. Essentially a rmb trading system is created

 

[jhungary]

I said the energy sector will accelerate the shift, I never mean Rubel backed Russian oil transaction as the main force of that shift from USD domination to more balance one. Look on my second post in first page when I tried to explain it to @Viet

Many Central Banks have already tried to move away from USD domination transaction and of course this shift will take times to reach the target to have more balance trading system instead of dominated by USD.

The use of USD as national reserve in many countries will also likely to fall gradually as many countries are now not as confident as before with their USD reserve after Western sanction on Russia, and the volume of non USD transaction in international trade will likely to increase due to many Central Banks swap agreement.

-------------------------------------------------------

"The BCSA agreement makes it possible for exchanges in both (Indonesia's and China's) local currencies up to 250 billion Chinese Yuan (equivalent to about Rp550 billion), which is also equivalent to about US$38.8 billion," BI Chief Executive of Communications Erwin Haryono stated here on Thursday.

Indonesia and China renew bilateral currency swap arrangement

Bank Indonesia (BI) and China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (POBC), renewed the Bilateral Currency Swap Arrangement (BCSA), which came ...

en.antaranews.com

Well, depends on who is buying. If it remains African country, India and China, then most likely it won't accelerate the shift.

Problem is, most of the western world uses either Euro and USD to settle their trade, and that was the big hitter. Look at it this way, the world economy is basically driven by 3 blocs. The US, the EU (and UK) and China, these 3 represent 72% of world trade. So basically, unless either EU or US started to swing toward Chinese camp or Africa country, or Middle Eastern country started to gain market share. This is going to remain like that.

The question is not whether foreign country stop trading USD and lost their appetite, but rather what can they replace with? Yuan? Rouble? Or your local currency? In this case, unless you fancy an inflation by having more of your own currency on hand and not at the international level. You would most likely continue to use USD to trade.

 

[jhungary]

You don't seem to understand how fiat currencies work. US Dollar is dominant because post WW2, most industrial nations and Saudis agree to use it as the medium of exchange. It was initially backed by gold until overprinting in the 70s made Nixon abandon the gold backing. Now dollar is essentially a piece of paper built based on trust. As long as you trust it, it will have power, the moment people question it, the power starts to dissipate.

China being the world largest market and producer made a bargain with the devil. It benefitted China but now it is time for a fairer system, we essentially traded our sweat and blood to build up the infrastructure and industrial base. China the only country on earth with the most diverse industrial base, not the most advanced but most diverse, essentially if you look at the tech scale.

You probably are the one that seems not to understand how currency works.

It's not based on trust anymore, not since they dropped Betten Wood system, it's base on convenience now.

Think about it like this. If your Singapore want to Trade with Malaysia. Would you use USD, which accepted in both countries, or would you want to use Malaysia Ringgit? Or Singapore Dollar? That's the only 3 choices out there.

If you use Ringgit, that mean you either would have to swap currency with Malaysia or have it exchanged to Ringgit because you don't print Ringgit. Both of which would require you to take out Singapore dollar upfront. And until the trading cycle completed (like you sell something to Malaysia and get Singapore dollar back) that deficit is on your own, which is okay if it is one transaction, but if this multiplied, it will put stress on your own currency.

If you use Singapore Dollar, the same thing happened, but then you don't need to wait for Malaysia to buy stuff back from you, the currency gap can be filled with whoever buy stuff from you (say Indonesia) and pay with Singapore dollar.

On the other hand, USD is used in both country, which mean it basically the same as having use Singapore Dollar to settle but you have a lot more different choice than waiting on people to settle with Singapore Dollar.

Also, as I explained before, China is an export driven country, they wanted their currency to flow back into China which lower the value, so they can trade more Yuan with foreign currency. Having demand on other country to use Yuan to settle goes against the principal of the current monetary policy. Because that mean you will need to have more country holding Yuan, and you can't do that without more Yuan on the market, and you can't do that without printing new Yuan. And you don't need to have a master's in international to know doing so will inflate your own currency.

Having an industrial base have no bearing on having dominate trade. Read this thread, I have a very serious discussion with a fellow member

A fireside chat about industrial revolution

Recently I have a fireside chat with a good friend of mine about Industrial revolution, the role of productivity and cost advantage. We talked about how these basic economical factors underpins the human history over the last 500 years - the rise of Europe, then rise of US and fall of Europe and...

defence.pk

 

[MajesticPug]

Here is a well established proven fact. Russia's ability to produce oil and gas will be significantly depleted without access to Western technology. Why do you think Iran has the lowest recovery rates among all oil and gas producers. What did you think western companies are doing in Pekanbaru, Balikpapan and pretty much everywhere in Indonesia? To access this technology Russia needs dollars or euros. Without production Russia has nothing to sell. Selling oil in Rouble is an act of desperation to artificially float the currency - it's not sustainable. The last thing Russia needs is large reserves of unstable violative currencies from countries that don't have anything the Russians need in quantities large enough to offset Russian oil exports. Other than China no one qualifies.

Second, to have any hope of displacing the dollar you need a country with a large trade deficit. The US trade deficit is what keeps massive amounts of dollars in circulation. China is the opposite, it is an exporter with a massive trade surplus with almost every nation on earth. China's consumer spending was miles off the US pre-covid and now has fallen off a cliff post COVID. So much so the Chinese are cutting interest rates and relaxing the requirement for second home ownership going against Xi's 2017 directive, and yet the property market is in recession.

If you buy into the fantasy of a nobody - a guy called Ejaz Akram an Associate Professor of Religion at the university of Lahore on youtube then you are quite gullible.

Your narratives are so full of holes that it shouldn't take a reasonably intelligent person to KO your arguments. First of all, despite the boasts of equipment advantage, the West must still bend to the energy producers of the scale of Russia. Didn't you know Canada immediately return the gas turbines to Russia after hearing Putin "Well, if you're not returning the gas turbines then I won't deliver NG to Europe" smirk? It wasn't a threat from Putin. He just stated the consequences and Canada and Siemens immediately knelt. Who are more in need of the gas turbines? In a market economy where there are no restrictions on capital and resources, technologies command better added values. In times of war or the 'sanctions' that we're in now, resources do. But it's the West who install restrictions that shoot their own feet, no?

Second, no country is trying to displace the dollars. China has said many times it's not trying to displace America's throne and yet let its yuan freely traded. For the world, it's important already using non-dollar to trade with each other. The reduction of reliance on the dollars will reduce their exposure of being 'harvested' the hard-earned wealth they spent years accumulating. On the contrary, the shift to using non-dollars to trade will reduce the American abilities to 'export inflation' and 'harvest wealth' from other countries.

Third, it's not a fantasy. It's already happening. Did you just crawl out from the rocks?

 

[Indos]

You probably are the one that seems not to understand how currency works.

It's not based on trust anymore, not since they dropped Betten Wood system, it's base on convenience now.

For me, both trust and convenience that make USD dominates. And please dont forget that countries outside Western world also has strategic target to achieve, too dependent to USD is not good strategically when it comes to providing long term stability to the economy. Swap agreement between Indonesia and China Central Bank, for example, are made even before Western sanction on Russia. Many Central Banks have done the same thing and mostly with China as China trade is quite dominating in ASEAN region.

Now after what happened with Western sanction on Russia, trading with USD is not considered as save as well. Doing trade in USD then is not convenient strategically due to those factors (Central Bank prefers not too dependent on USD to secure stability for long term period and having USD is also not 100 % save after what happen with Russia).

Countries will likely to think long term (strategic convenience) than short term (easy transaction in using USD). Sure, they will not be able to leave USD in any short period, but they will try to gradually leave USD payment system and many swap currency agreements between Central Banks have already shown that thinking is exist among Central Bankers in Asia, even European countries have done similar thing with the introduce of Euros among EU members long time ago.

And as I said earlier in my first post, Rubel backed Russian oil will accelerate the shift. How long the balance in trade will happen, of course not in next decade, but the snow ball has already started rolling down.

 

[jhungary]

For me, both trust and convenience that make USD dominates. And please dont forget that countries outside Western world also has strategic target to achieve, too dependent to USD is not good and the swap agreement between Indonesia and China Central Bank, for example, are made before Western sanction on Russia. Many Central Banks have done the same thing and mostly with China as China trade is quite dominating in ASEAN region.

Now after what happened with Western sanction on Russia, trading with USD is not convenient in strategic term anymore, countries will likely to think long term (strategic convenience) than short term (easy transaction in using USD). Sure, they will not be able to leave USD in any short period, but they will try to gradually leave USD payment system and many swap currency agreement between Central Bank have already shown that.

And as I said earlier in my first post, Rubel backed Russian oil will accelerate the shift. How long the balance in trade will happen, of course not in 1 decade, but the snow ball has already started rolling down.

Well, I will have to say we can agree to disagree. And I have pretty much said all I want to say in this matter. So I am going to leave it at that.

One final word. Saying whether or not this is a step to dedollarized is like saying whether Vietnam Industrial Village is the beginning of the step to dethrone China as world Industrial hub.

As I said with the last 2 post, as long as there is money to be made, people will still invest in China, that's pretty much sum up whether or not country will decouple with US Dollar system. As long as this is a convivence step, people are going to keep using USD to settle.

 

[Viet]

Lol. That's what happens when the ignorant don't understand fiat currency. Money is a means of exchange, ultimately it has to get exchanged for services or goods. Why do you think China is using dollars to build infrastructure secure minerals all around the world. Because essentially dollar is useless if resource based countries don't back it, hence why the petrol dollar backed by Saudi oil was so important. Russia is actually one of the richest countries in terms of real physical wealth on earth. Russia resources coupled with Chinese industrial base and technology can really threaten the dollar dominance. Imagine this, why would a sovereign country only opt for a currency which always threaten to sanction them? A logical and sand sovereign country would hedge themselves. China is actually fighting for a much fairer system, away from the centuries old exploitative Western system. Now I am not saying China is an angel but competition is good for the world, it provides alternatives and gives others a choice. I am being neutral here.


You don't seem to understand how fiat currencies work. US Dollar is dominant because post WW2, most industrial nations and Saudis agree to use it as the medium of exchange. It was initially backed by gold until overprinting in the 70s made Nixon abandon the gold backing. Now dollar is essentially a piece of paper built based on trust. As long as you trust it, it will have power, the moment people question it, the power starts to dissipate.

China being the world largest market and producer made a bargain with the devil. It benefitted China but now it is time for a fairer system, we essentially traded our sweat and blood to build up the infrastructure and industrial base. China the only country on earth with the most diverse industrial base, not the most advanced but most diverse, essentially if you look at the tech scale.

Thats why US was so pissed with the BRI, it was essentially trading in Rmb, we gave out loans in Rmb then the host country uses the RMB to buy Chinese goods and servuces to build critical infrastructure. These infrastructure will. Enable trade, so they have to earn back RMB to pay off our loan. Essentially a rmb trading system is created

Please spare me of your peaceful rise shit. chinese are like other capitalists just with commie camouflage. No, except for primitive countries as Kongo or venezuela money is not backed by minerals or oil. The Yen is international reserves currency. Can you tell me where the Japanese hide their oil wells?

 

[Communism]

The only real alternative to the hard currencies of the western countries is the RMB.

As there is no longer any reason to use any western currency other than the USD due to the same sanctions being applied by all western countries, this effectively limits it to USD or RMB.

As jhungary said, the trade volume from non-western countries and excluding china is miniscule.

The lack of RMB is pretty easy to remedy though.

The main problem is that most non-western and non-china countries are simply not trustworthy with their currency, which is where this falls apart.

The only real way for this to work is for China to purchase industrial inputs from non-western countries with RMB, but that limits the RMB denominated trade to non-western net resource exporter nations.