Slav Defence
THINK TANK VICE CHAIRMAN: ANALYST
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We know that Pakistan is paying a huge price from past ten years till now for being a front line ally of US war on terror. According to South Asian Terrorism Portal (SATP) in 2012:
There were 6211 terrorism fatalities in Pakistan, including 3007 civilians, 2472 militants, and 732 Security Forces Personals, as against 6,303 fatalities, including 2,738 civilians, 2,800 militants, and 765 SF personnel in 2011. The first 69 days of 2013 have witnessed 1,537 fatalities, including 882 civilians, 116 SF personnel, and 539 militants.
Terrorists outfits such as TTP, which is also funded by foreign elements has given us maximum collateral damage while US on the other hand has continuously launched drone strike against Haqqani network which has worsen the situation, as Pakistan is not only pressurized by United States to carry more operations against those Talibans who may help us to settle or adjust our cross border tensions and internal settlements with hostile organizations but on the other hand these terrorist outfits are also pressurizing us to accept their writ. They are continuously challenging ability and power of not only our armed forces but our constitutional laws as well. At this point, our civil regimes confusion is acceptable as due to our damaged economical infra-structure and Indian regimes hostile attitude has left us with no choice but, to hold peace talks with terrorist outfits while on the other hand, TTPs non-flexible attitude has persisted the second opinion to launch decisive operation against them for once and for all.
Before moving further, I would like to define TTPs role on regional level and how it has affected Pakistans position, their relationship with neighboring countries and its mechanism of working. We will also discuss Al-Qaidas influence in Pakistan as well as its indirect/direct relationship with TTP.
TTPs Mechanism of working:
As I have mentioned earlier that TTP is a heterogeneous group which does not provide central command but a platform upon which it shares manpower with other militant organizations as well. Militant organizations such as Al-Qaeda, Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan ,Lashkar-e-Jhangvi,Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami
and Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi and Al-Qaida are prominent allies of this organization and it shares various resources with them.
In a May 2010 interview, U.S. Gen. David Petraeus described the TTP's relationship by stating:
"There is clearly a symbiotic relationship between all of these different organizations: al-Qaeda, the Pakistani Taliban, the Afghan Taliban, TNSM [Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi]. And it's very difficult to parse and to try to distinguish between them. They support each other, they coordinate with each other, sometimes they compete with each other, [and] sometimes they even fight each other. But at the end of the day, there is quite a relationship between them."
We must keep one point very clear before sorting out solutions that TTP does not lead them, but it only co-operates with them in case of insurgency and launching terrorist attack in Pakistan. The common point which unites them together is their basic school of thought.However, there is a difference in their objectives...for example Sipa e Sahaba has objective to transform Pakistan into Deobandi state and declares shias as non-muslims while Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi has different objective, of implementing Sharia law and are involved in blowing up of girls school and CD shops [1]
So, this fact is clear that TTP does not control them but it co-operates with them, thus whenever TTP has to express reaction in the form of bomb-blasts, it may take support from its allies, However, we do observe collapse between TTP and its allies whenever government tries to hold peace talks and TTP accepts..For example:
When government decided to hold peace talks with TTP and Mehsud leadership accepted it, the Fazullah group stepped forward and launched bomb-blast to sabotage peace talks.TTP accepted its responsibility to hide its cleavage point by accepting the responsibility of attack. However later on, the latest attack on Church has changed their plan and TTP denied its responsibility, the background must be of General Kiyanis attempt to visit the preparations of operation which has put TTP into pressure to take such decision, in fact this pressure has acted as a tool to break them with Fazullah group and of TTPs instruction for them to leave Pakistan within 24 hours.
TTPs role on regional level and its connection with Al-Qaida:
We all are well aware of this fact that TTP also has connections with terrorists organizations such as BLA, Al-Qaida and other organizations who are working on foreign agenda to destabilize Pakistan or to Liberate their areas (such as BLA) which makes TTP more strong.
According to BBC report in 2004:
The military offensive had been part of the overall war against al-Qaeda. ... Since the start of the operation, the [Pakistani] military authorities have firmly established that a large number of Uzbek, Chechen and Arab militants were in the area. ... It was in July 2002 that Pakistani troops, for the first time in 55 years, entered the Tirah Valley in Khyber tribal agency. Soon they were in Shawal valley of North Waziristan, and later in South Waziristan. ... This was made possible after long negotiations with various tribes, who reluctantly agreed to allow the military's presence on the assurance that it would bring in funds and development work. But once the military action started in South Waziristan a number of Waziri sub-tribes took it as an attempt to subjugate them. Attempts to persuade them into handing over the foreign militants failed, and with an apparently mishandling by the authorities, the security campaign against suspected al-Qaeda militants turned into an undeclared war between the Pakistani military and the rebel tribesmen.[2].
We need to understand Infra-structure of Al-Qaida as well, since it enjoys symbiotic relationship with TTP , also we have discussed in part 1 of influence of Al-Qaida in Lal-Masjid siege and its connection with Aziz brothers due to which Operation Silence launched by Pakistan Army under the authority of former president Mr. Musharraf.
Infra-structure of Al-Qaida:
Analysts such as Jason Burke, a reporter for London's Observer and the author of Al-Qaeda: The True Story of Radical Islam, and Stratfor's Peter Zeihan have underestimated the importance of Al-Qaeda's central leadership, in part because they overstate what that leadership needs to do to remain relevant. Even if the central leadership's role is limited to connecting terrorist nodespairing skill sets, financing, and operativesit can transform terrorist groups from disunited regional problems into cohesive adversaries capable of threatening Western societies.
Analysts consider terrorist networks to be centralized when there is a principal command exercising control over the network, making operational decisions, and guiding its ideology. Decisions filter from top to bottom, and levels do not mix: There is a clear separation between the leadership and lower ranking operatives. A central command joins terrorists with specific skill sets across regions, tasks smaller cells, and provides financial and logistical resources. A prime example of such a centralized structure was pre-9-11 Al-Qaeda, which had a supreme leader (Osama bin Laden), a shura(consultation) council, various committees, and a cadre of lieutenants in charge of regions or cells.[3]
Al-Qaida is an Arabic term which means: The base and its base is mainly located in Afghanistan as claimed by experts, however it operates and works like TTP, as it also keeps allies like TTP. The Al-Qaidas patter is what I think is that:
-It approaches towards those organizations which hold anti-national objectives.
-Creates ties with them, shares resources and extracts desired benefits from them.
This the main reason, due to which Al-Qaida is getting out of approach day by day, although their actual hide outs or main bases were weakened or at least shaken by US as they claim, but this has made them more difficult to handle.
Figure 1.1 which I have drawn clearly explains that how Al-Qaida is influencing throughout the world, via its allies.
As it has al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya (GAI) , al-Ittihaad al-Islami (AIAI), al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) , Ansar al-Sunnah Army, Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) as allies and their bases are located at Libya,Afghanistan,Uzbekistan,Tajikistan,Ethopia,Kenya,Somalia,Spain etc.
However we will focus upon Al-Qaidas influence in Pakistan and relationship of it via other militant organizations.
Al-Qaidas influence in Pakistan:
Al-Qaida has deep economical relationship with TTP.Al-Qaida supports economical backbone of TTP as well as shares resources with each other..
According to John Brennan, President Obamas chief counter-terrorism adviser:
"It's a group that is closely allied with al-Qaeda. They train together, they plan together, they plot together. They are almost indistinguishable".[4]
Furthermore, ambassador-at-large Daniel Benjamin stated: "The T.T.P. and Al Qaeda have a symbiotic relationship: T.T.P. draws ideological guidance from Al Qaeda, while Al Qaeda relies on the T.T.P. for safe haven in the Pashtun areas along the Afghan-Pakistani border... This mutual cooperation gives T.T.P. access to both Al Qaedas global terrorist network and the operational experience of its members. Given the proximity of the two groups and the nature of their relationship, T.T.P. is a force multiplier for Al Qaeda.[5]"
However we must keep one point very clear that Afghan Talibans and TTP have entirely different objective. Afghan Talibans are mainly focusing on US/NATO invasion while TTP is focusing against Pakistani civil regime and its constitutional infra-structure and has objective to destroy our constitution and inject their extremist version of Islam.
Government sources believe that almost 18 foreign fighters from Uzbekistan, Egypt, and Afghanistan had arrived weeks before the final confrontation and established firing ranges to teach the students for how to handle weapons properly. Diplomats were surprised by how quickly al-Zawahiri condemned the attack on the mosque and called on Pakistanis to rise up against Musharraf's government. Officials blamed the presence of foreign fighters for the breakdown of negotiations, as they seemed about to reach a deal to end the standoff peacefully.[6]
Countering Terrorists outfits:
The current crisis has brought huge economical destruction for Pakistan, our Think tanks and researchers at every level are divided into two groups:
Northern Irish Model:
-One group is persisting to hold peace talk with these organizations; our civil regime is working on current scenario and has hold peace with TTP, the Mehsud group due to which we have observed two major bomb-blasts and a murder of Pakistan Army officers, but later on, we have also seen peace talks have created collapse of interest or strategies for some amount of time. Mr Hameed Gul, former DG ISI stated that 36+ Taliban groups or allies have agreed for peace a talk which is also a notable point. Thus peace settlement supporters are persisting to continue it, this group also questions of drone attack by APC and questions of American interests as well. This group is proposing the Irish Model, in which IRA fought war against UK. The issue was settled via peace dialogue although British Government has announced huge reward on the head of IRA member. However, same members later on discussed resolution of Northern Ireland and later on, the issue was later on settled on after peace process.
Sri Lankan Model:
-The other group is persisting to wage full fledge war and proposing the Sri Lankan model to counter-terrorism which is to eliminate terrorists outfits to last man. They are not in favor to give any single chance to such organizations which are monstrous and are out of control now. Furthermore, an attack on Major Sanahullah and Church bomb-blast case during peace talks with Mehsud group has given them a strong reason to prove their point. According to these mindsets, giving them such chances will increase their strength rather than weakening them, and their influence will become stronger and more powerful.
Other models:
Besides the above two recent models, we also have the Philippines (1899-1902), El Salvador (1980-1992), Malaysia (1948-1960) and Guatemala (1963-1993). All these models offer insight as to overall success. The conflicts in Vietnam (1959-1972) and Algeria (1954-1962) offer great examples of military operational successes. [7]
Latest Counter-terrorism policy of Pakistan:
Now we will discuss the counter-terrorism policy suggested and engineered by democratic civil regime of Pakistan:
Counter-terrorism model of PPP government:
In order to halt the terrorist outfits and their insurgency in Pakistan, the PPP government adopted the 3-D model to counter insurgency; this model mainly consisted of three main elements:
-Development
-Dialogue
-Deterrence
However, it hasnt covered lapses of foreign policy, clear identification and action taken against terrorist outfits where as the 3-D model was followed by mono-faced approach which relied exclusively on use of force, but lacked the identification of target in clear manner. [8]
Counter-terrorism model of PML-N regime:
The PML-N made a well appreciated policy to tackle terrorist outfits and to counter insurgencies. It also made a critical approach towards lapses, reasons and elements. Thus the counter-terrorism model proposed by PML-N consists of five elements and is more detailed as compare to 3-D model of PML-N which consists of:
-Dismantle
-Containment
-Prevention
-Education
-Reintegrate
The policy covers dismantling ie strengthening of security forces and anti-terrorists laws, police reforms. It also focuses upon improved intelligence sharing. The containment/prevention policy is a critical approach which enhances upon key factors which are causing an increase of resources such as man power etc. In order to halt such elements from spreading their tentacles, government has focused on issues such as victim management, speedy justice and most prominently focused on reviewing foreign policy.
The Education strategy deals with countering the extremist propaganda, and working on promotion of alternative version of Islam, and runs media campaign against it. [9]
The lapses:
The counter-terrorism policy of Pakistan lacks clear recognition of those elements that are funding terrorist outfits in Pakistan. Although it mentions Russia, India, Iran, Afghanistan for proxy wars and recognizes as supporters of growth and extremism in Pakistan. However, it does not mention about role of Saudi Arabia or the Gulf States.
The counter-terrorism policy also has not mentioned proper strategy about Drone issue, although it is obvious that C.I.A run drone strategy has given damage as well as it has caused an increase in militancy indirectly by increasing sympathies (as discussed in Part 2 of report)
-The report has also ignored infra-structural lapses which have caused poverty and Bad governance.[10][11]
Ultimate Solution:
First of all, we need to realize the lapses within our foreign policy, as we have discussed in Part I and Part II of foreign influence of US and other interest of US rather than annihilation of Taliban only, furthermore, while preparing our strategy to counter such organizations which are linked directly or indirectly with global terrorists outfits, we need to understand the effects on regional hegemony players such as India and other neighboring countries. We must realize that TTPs presence and Afghan proxy war has reduced pressure on India and at the same time has created chances to harm Pak-Iran relationships by creating trust deficiency due to possible cross-border terrorist attacks by them, where as presence of pro-Afghan policy is also necessary to reduce possible influence of anti-Pak elements via Afghanistan to Pakistan.
Thus keeping all such points in our mind, we must decide that:
Is TTPs presence and parallel existence of their version with our constitution is acceptable or not?
The answer is No according to my analysis as TTPs base is dependent upon violence and complete annihilation of all those mindsets whose philosophy reciprocates or contradicts with their ideology.[12]
The constitution of Pakistan provides basic rights to all minorities and according constitution 1973 of Pakistan, the government authorities are ambit to provide them safe guard and equal rights of citizenship.[13]
So, our basic objective is now clear, however the major problem is for how to tackle such terrorist outfits. Thus I suggest the following counter-terrorism policy:
My proposed counter-terrorism model:
Now what I propose is that we must follow the Divide and rule strategy.
My proposed model is also consists of five elements rather then 3-D and consists of following points:
-Identify
-Isolate
-Neutralize
-Control and educate
-Recover and rebuild
1) Identify:
-We need to identify those mindsets in TTP and its allies who are waging war against us as well those who are ready for peace settlements. We also need to recognize those hands that are supporting their economical backbones such ie Regional hegemony players.
-We also need to interrogate those channels or routes through which they are getting funds and power. This includes those so called NGOs and organizations who are claiming to work for welfare such as Earthquake victims etc.
-We also need to identify those politicians, media persons who are working producing sympathies for Taliban or supporting anti-Pak elements by supporting such outfits.
Thus the first point focuses upon identification of terrorists, their supporters and foreign elements.
2) Isolate:
This element supports divide and rule strategy which mean that after identifying the difference between those elements who are ready to have peace settlement such as 36+ groups have agreed, we have to separate and Isolate those elements who are not ready to have peace and are persisting to wage suicide bombings and need to wage full fledge war against them.
This also covers that we need to break TTPs connection with such elements that are supplying funds to them, and need to take strong action against those who are supporting them as well.
Thus the second point is focusing upon isolation and then full fledged operation clean-up.
3) Neutralize:
This point covers the foreign policy of civil regime.
We must try to neutralize our relationship with neighboring countries such as Iran as well as Gulf region countries such as Saudi Arabia, United States, and Russia. We need to recognize those reasons due to which Pakistani foreign policy is biased and not working for Pakistani Interest.
We must ensure that new proposed foreign policy must have basic objective of support and provision of safeguard for Pakistani interest.
In case of India, we must believe pressurize policy by bringing dialogues at UN level. We must raise the issue of Indians causing insurgency such as operation deep strike in Pakistan and pressurize Indian regime via UN to avoid such insurgencies as such attempts are supporting terrorists directly.
We must address to UN saying that:
Indian attempts such as Operation Deep strike are helping terrorism to grow in Pakistan. We must project and highlight that: If we fail to counter insurgency due to Indian attempts then Pakistan will become unstable as a result of which we will not be in a position to fight as a front line ally. If UN want us to fight terror and is willing to see success, then it must refrain Indians to interfere and support terrorism by giving damage to Pakistan via insurgency.
-Issues such as Drone strike must also be solved.US must be refrained to carry drone strikes as it is increasing sympathy for Taliban supporters, as they along with militants, innocent civilians are losing their lives as a result of which their victims are joining militants to seek revenge [14]
4) Control and Educate:
The control and educate term proposes to control those elements who are supporting terrorism by supporting such organizations. Such elements are found prominently in media sector, ministry etc.
Thus we should control our media.For this, PEMRA must make policy against those channels and their media persons who are favoring their outfits and showing such reports or programmers which are contrary to the interests of Pakistan .
We must re-define the definition of freedom of speech which is the basic right given by Pakistani constitution as freedom of speech for peace and freedom from terrorism
We must run full fledge campaigns against their version of Islam and must support those operations which are carried out by Pakistan army as discussed in part 1[15]
5) Recover and Improve:
We must work on to recover all those damages due to war on terror. We must work on to recover damage of our economical and social infra-structure.
This angle also covers the lapses regarding to victim management due to natural disasters and bombast, poor governance and focuses upon strengthening police and armed sectors ,Intel sharing, provision of latest arms and ammunition and better ways to counter terrorism as well as focuses upon improving internal LEA culture, covering trust deficiency between them and fast provision of judiciary system and improved co-ordination between civil and armed sectors by taking prominent action against those corrupted elements within our ministry and other important sectors, also ensuring relief to subject by provision of scholarship programs, relief on daily use prices and reduction of pressure, frustration ,fear and anarchy by initiating cheap cultural and entertaining programs at local areas by mayors,nazims elected political parties.
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[1] according to Gannon, Kathy, "Militants gaining ground in Pakistan", Associated Press report at USA Today ,
[2]Bajoria, Jayshree (6 February 2008). "Pakistan's New Generation of Terrorists". Council on Foreign Relations.
[3][Rohan Gunaratna, Inside Al-Qaeda (New York: Berkley Publishing Company, 2003), pp. 75-8]
[4] ^ Hennessey, Kathleen (10 August 2010). "N.Y. bomber has al Qaeda tie, White House says". The San Francisco Chronicle.
[5]^ Jump up to:a b c Savage, Charlie (1 September 2010). "U.S. Adds Legal Pressure on Pakistani Taliban". The New York Times. Retrieved 1 March 2011.
[6] Dean Nelson (2007-07-15). "Bin Ladens deputy behind the Red Mosque bloodbath". London: The Times. Retrieved 2008-05-11
[7] From: Pakistan Observer |Counter terrorism models for Pakistan by Dr.Muhammed Khan.
[8] [9][10]From No radical shift in new anti-terror strategy, (2013-07-06) Dawn and The Express Tribune, August 13th, 2013.
[11] From No radical shift in new anti-terror strategy, (2013-07-06) Dawn Wikileaks: Bank rolling militancy in Pakistan.
.[12] [13] [14]From: The Echidna of terrorism part 2 ^Infrastructure of TTP and Lapses by slav defence
.and ^ Enterpise Team (Jun 1, 2003). "The Constitution of 1973`". The Story of Pakistan. The Story of Pakistan. Retrieved 2011-10-15.From: The Echidna of terrorism part 2 ^Infrastructure of TTP and Lapses by slav defence
[15]The Echidna of terrorism: Part 1|Operation Silence by slav defence
There were 6211 terrorism fatalities in Pakistan, including 3007 civilians, 2472 militants, and 732 Security Forces Personals, as against 6,303 fatalities, including 2,738 civilians, 2,800 militants, and 765 SF personnel in 2011. The first 69 days of 2013 have witnessed 1,537 fatalities, including 882 civilians, 116 SF personnel, and 539 militants.
Terrorists outfits such as TTP, which is also funded by foreign elements has given us maximum collateral damage while US on the other hand has continuously launched drone strike against Haqqani network which has worsen the situation, as Pakistan is not only pressurized by United States to carry more operations against those Talibans who may help us to settle or adjust our cross border tensions and internal settlements with hostile organizations but on the other hand these terrorist outfits are also pressurizing us to accept their writ. They are continuously challenging ability and power of not only our armed forces but our constitutional laws as well. At this point, our civil regimes confusion is acceptable as due to our damaged economical infra-structure and Indian regimes hostile attitude has left us with no choice but, to hold peace talks with terrorist outfits while on the other hand, TTPs non-flexible attitude has persisted the second opinion to launch decisive operation against them for once and for all.
Before moving further, I would like to define TTPs role on regional level and how it has affected Pakistans position, their relationship with neighboring countries and its mechanism of working. We will also discuss Al-Qaidas influence in Pakistan as well as its indirect/direct relationship with TTP.
TTPs Mechanism of working:
As I have mentioned earlier that TTP is a heterogeneous group which does not provide central command but a platform upon which it shares manpower with other militant organizations as well. Militant organizations such as Al-Qaeda, Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan ,Lashkar-e-Jhangvi,Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami
and Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi and Al-Qaida are prominent allies of this organization and it shares various resources with them.
In a May 2010 interview, U.S. Gen. David Petraeus described the TTP's relationship by stating:
"There is clearly a symbiotic relationship between all of these different organizations: al-Qaeda, the Pakistani Taliban, the Afghan Taliban, TNSM [Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi]. And it's very difficult to parse and to try to distinguish between them. They support each other, they coordinate with each other, sometimes they compete with each other, [and] sometimes they even fight each other. But at the end of the day, there is quite a relationship between them."
We must keep one point very clear before sorting out solutions that TTP does not lead them, but it only co-operates with them in case of insurgency and launching terrorist attack in Pakistan. The common point which unites them together is their basic school of thought.However, there is a difference in their objectives...for example Sipa e Sahaba has objective to transform Pakistan into Deobandi state and declares shias as non-muslims while Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi has different objective, of implementing Sharia law and are involved in blowing up of girls school and CD shops [1]
So, this fact is clear that TTP does not control them but it co-operates with them, thus whenever TTP has to express reaction in the form of bomb-blasts, it may take support from its allies, However, we do observe collapse between TTP and its allies whenever government tries to hold peace talks and TTP accepts..For example:
When government decided to hold peace talks with TTP and Mehsud leadership accepted it, the Fazullah group stepped forward and launched bomb-blast to sabotage peace talks.TTP accepted its responsibility to hide its cleavage point by accepting the responsibility of attack. However later on, the latest attack on Church has changed their plan and TTP denied its responsibility, the background must be of General Kiyanis attempt to visit the preparations of operation which has put TTP into pressure to take such decision, in fact this pressure has acted as a tool to break them with Fazullah group and of TTPs instruction for them to leave Pakistan within 24 hours.
TTPs role on regional level and its connection with Al-Qaida:
We all are well aware of this fact that TTP also has connections with terrorists organizations such as BLA, Al-Qaida and other organizations who are working on foreign agenda to destabilize Pakistan or to Liberate their areas (such as BLA) which makes TTP more strong.
According to BBC report in 2004:
The military offensive had been part of the overall war against al-Qaeda. ... Since the start of the operation, the [Pakistani] military authorities have firmly established that a large number of Uzbek, Chechen and Arab militants were in the area. ... It was in July 2002 that Pakistani troops, for the first time in 55 years, entered the Tirah Valley in Khyber tribal agency. Soon they were in Shawal valley of North Waziristan, and later in South Waziristan. ... This was made possible after long negotiations with various tribes, who reluctantly agreed to allow the military's presence on the assurance that it would bring in funds and development work. But once the military action started in South Waziristan a number of Waziri sub-tribes took it as an attempt to subjugate them. Attempts to persuade them into handing over the foreign militants failed, and with an apparently mishandling by the authorities, the security campaign against suspected al-Qaeda militants turned into an undeclared war between the Pakistani military and the rebel tribesmen.[2].
We need to understand Infra-structure of Al-Qaida as well, since it enjoys symbiotic relationship with TTP , also we have discussed in part 1 of influence of Al-Qaida in Lal-Masjid siege and its connection with Aziz brothers due to which Operation Silence launched by Pakistan Army under the authority of former president Mr. Musharraf.
Infra-structure of Al-Qaida:
Analysts such as Jason Burke, a reporter for London's Observer and the author of Al-Qaeda: The True Story of Radical Islam, and Stratfor's Peter Zeihan have underestimated the importance of Al-Qaeda's central leadership, in part because they overstate what that leadership needs to do to remain relevant. Even if the central leadership's role is limited to connecting terrorist nodespairing skill sets, financing, and operativesit can transform terrorist groups from disunited regional problems into cohesive adversaries capable of threatening Western societies.
Analysts consider terrorist networks to be centralized when there is a principal command exercising control over the network, making operational decisions, and guiding its ideology. Decisions filter from top to bottom, and levels do not mix: There is a clear separation between the leadership and lower ranking operatives. A central command joins terrorists with specific skill sets across regions, tasks smaller cells, and provides financial and logistical resources. A prime example of such a centralized structure was pre-9-11 Al-Qaeda, which had a supreme leader (Osama bin Laden), a shura(consultation) council, various committees, and a cadre of lieutenants in charge of regions or cells.[3]
Al-Qaida is an Arabic term which means: The base and its base is mainly located in Afghanistan as claimed by experts, however it operates and works like TTP, as it also keeps allies like TTP. The Al-Qaidas patter is what I think is that:
-It approaches towards those organizations which hold anti-national objectives.
-Creates ties with them, shares resources and extracts desired benefits from them.
This the main reason, due to which Al-Qaida is getting out of approach day by day, although their actual hide outs or main bases were weakened or at least shaken by US as they claim, but this has made them more difficult to handle.
Figure 1.1 which I have drawn clearly explains that how Al-Qaida is influencing throughout the world, via its allies.
As it has al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya (GAI) , al-Ittihaad al-Islami (AIAI), al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) , Ansar al-Sunnah Army, Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) as allies and their bases are located at Libya,Afghanistan,Uzbekistan,Tajikistan,Ethopia,Kenya,Somalia,Spain etc.
However we will focus upon Al-Qaidas influence in Pakistan and relationship of it via other militant organizations.
Al-Qaidas influence in Pakistan:
Al-Qaida has deep economical relationship with TTP.Al-Qaida supports economical backbone of TTP as well as shares resources with each other..
According to John Brennan, President Obamas chief counter-terrorism adviser:
"It's a group that is closely allied with al-Qaeda. They train together, they plan together, they plot together. They are almost indistinguishable".[4]
Furthermore, ambassador-at-large Daniel Benjamin stated: "The T.T.P. and Al Qaeda have a symbiotic relationship: T.T.P. draws ideological guidance from Al Qaeda, while Al Qaeda relies on the T.T.P. for safe haven in the Pashtun areas along the Afghan-Pakistani border... This mutual cooperation gives T.T.P. access to both Al Qaedas global terrorist network and the operational experience of its members. Given the proximity of the two groups and the nature of their relationship, T.T.P. is a force multiplier for Al Qaeda.[5]"
However we must keep one point very clear that Afghan Talibans and TTP have entirely different objective. Afghan Talibans are mainly focusing on US/NATO invasion while TTP is focusing against Pakistani civil regime and its constitutional infra-structure and has objective to destroy our constitution and inject their extremist version of Islam.
Government sources believe that almost 18 foreign fighters from Uzbekistan, Egypt, and Afghanistan had arrived weeks before the final confrontation and established firing ranges to teach the students for how to handle weapons properly. Diplomats were surprised by how quickly al-Zawahiri condemned the attack on the mosque and called on Pakistanis to rise up against Musharraf's government. Officials blamed the presence of foreign fighters for the breakdown of negotiations, as they seemed about to reach a deal to end the standoff peacefully.[6]
Countering Terrorists outfits:
The current crisis has brought huge economical destruction for Pakistan, our Think tanks and researchers at every level are divided into two groups:
Northern Irish Model:
-One group is persisting to hold peace talk with these organizations; our civil regime is working on current scenario and has hold peace with TTP, the Mehsud group due to which we have observed two major bomb-blasts and a murder of Pakistan Army officers, but later on, we have also seen peace talks have created collapse of interest or strategies for some amount of time. Mr Hameed Gul, former DG ISI stated that 36+ Taliban groups or allies have agreed for peace a talk which is also a notable point. Thus peace settlement supporters are persisting to continue it, this group also questions of drone attack by APC and questions of American interests as well. This group is proposing the Irish Model, in which IRA fought war against UK. The issue was settled via peace dialogue although British Government has announced huge reward on the head of IRA member. However, same members later on discussed resolution of Northern Ireland and later on, the issue was later on settled on after peace process.
Sri Lankan Model:
-The other group is persisting to wage full fledge war and proposing the Sri Lankan model to counter-terrorism which is to eliminate terrorists outfits to last man. They are not in favor to give any single chance to such organizations which are monstrous and are out of control now. Furthermore, an attack on Major Sanahullah and Church bomb-blast case during peace talks with Mehsud group has given them a strong reason to prove their point. According to these mindsets, giving them such chances will increase their strength rather than weakening them, and their influence will become stronger and more powerful.
Other models:
Besides the above two recent models, we also have the Philippines (1899-1902), El Salvador (1980-1992), Malaysia (1948-1960) and Guatemala (1963-1993). All these models offer insight as to overall success. The conflicts in Vietnam (1959-1972) and Algeria (1954-1962) offer great examples of military operational successes. [7]
Latest Counter-terrorism policy of Pakistan:
Now we will discuss the counter-terrorism policy suggested and engineered by democratic civil regime of Pakistan:
Counter-terrorism model of PPP government:
In order to halt the terrorist outfits and their insurgency in Pakistan, the PPP government adopted the 3-D model to counter insurgency; this model mainly consisted of three main elements:
-Development
-Dialogue
-Deterrence
However, it hasnt covered lapses of foreign policy, clear identification and action taken against terrorist outfits where as the 3-D model was followed by mono-faced approach which relied exclusively on use of force, but lacked the identification of target in clear manner. [8]
Counter-terrorism model of PML-N regime:
The PML-N made a well appreciated policy to tackle terrorist outfits and to counter insurgencies. It also made a critical approach towards lapses, reasons and elements. Thus the counter-terrorism model proposed by PML-N consists of five elements and is more detailed as compare to 3-D model of PML-N which consists of:
-Dismantle
-Containment
-Prevention
-Education
-Reintegrate
The policy covers dismantling ie strengthening of security forces and anti-terrorists laws, police reforms. It also focuses upon improved intelligence sharing. The containment/prevention policy is a critical approach which enhances upon key factors which are causing an increase of resources such as man power etc. In order to halt such elements from spreading their tentacles, government has focused on issues such as victim management, speedy justice and most prominently focused on reviewing foreign policy.
The Education strategy deals with countering the extremist propaganda, and working on promotion of alternative version of Islam, and runs media campaign against it. [9]
The lapses:
The counter-terrorism policy of Pakistan lacks clear recognition of those elements that are funding terrorist outfits in Pakistan. Although it mentions Russia, India, Iran, Afghanistan for proxy wars and recognizes as supporters of growth and extremism in Pakistan. However, it does not mention about role of Saudi Arabia or the Gulf States.
The counter-terrorism policy also has not mentioned proper strategy about Drone issue, although it is obvious that C.I.A run drone strategy has given damage as well as it has caused an increase in militancy indirectly by increasing sympathies (as discussed in Part 2 of report)
-The report has also ignored infra-structural lapses which have caused poverty and Bad governance.[10][11]
Ultimate Solution:
First of all, we need to realize the lapses within our foreign policy, as we have discussed in Part I and Part II of foreign influence of US and other interest of US rather than annihilation of Taliban only, furthermore, while preparing our strategy to counter such organizations which are linked directly or indirectly with global terrorists outfits, we need to understand the effects on regional hegemony players such as India and other neighboring countries. We must realize that TTPs presence and Afghan proxy war has reduced pressure on India and at the same time has created chances to harm Pak-Iran relationships by creating trust deficiency due to possible cross-border terrorist attacks by them, where as presence of pro-Afghan policy is also necessary to reduce possible influence of anti-Pak elements via Afghanistan to Pakistan.
Thus keeping all such points in our mind, we must decide that:
Is TTPs presence and parallel existence of their version with our constitution is acceptable or not?
The answer is No according to my analysis as TTPs base is dependent upon violence and complete annihilation of all those mindsets whose philosophy reciprocates or contradicts with their ideology.[12]
The constitution of Pakistan provides basic rights to all minorities and according constitution 1973 of Pakistan, the government authorities are ambit to provide them safe guard and equal rights of citizenship.[13]
So, our basic objective is now clear, however the major problem is for how to tackle such terrorist outfits. Thus I suggest the following counter-terrorism policy:
My proposed counter-terrorism model:
Now what I propose is that we must follow the Divide and rule strategy.
My proposed model is also consists of five elements rather then 3-D and consists of following points:
-Identify
-Isolate
-Neutralize
-Control and educate
-Recover and rebuild
1) Identify:
-We need to identify those mindsets in TTP and its allies who are waging war against us as well those who are ready for peace settlements. We also need to recognize those hands that are supporting their economical backbones such ie Regional hegemony players.
-We also need to interrogate those channels or routes through which they are getting funds and power. This includes those so called NGOs and organizations who are claiming to work for welfare such as Earthquake victims etc.
-We also need to identify those politicians, media persons who are working producing sympathies for Taliban or supporting anti-Pak elements by supporting such outfits.
Thus the first point focuses upon identification of terrorists, their supporters and foreign elements.
2) Isolate:
This element supports divide and rule strategy which mean that after identifying the difference between those elements who are ready to have peace settlement such as 36+ groups have agreed, we have to separate and Isolate those elements who are not ready to have peace and are persisting to wage suicide bombings and need to wage full fledge war against them.
This also covers that we need to break TTPs connection with such elements that are supplying funds to them, and need to take strong action against those who are supporting them as well.
Thus the second point is focusing upon isolation and then full fledged operation clean-up.
3) Neutralize:
This point covers the foreign policy of civil regime.
We must try to neutralize our relationship with neighboring countries such as Iran as well as Gulf region countries such as Saudi Arabia, United States, and Russia. We need to recognize those reasons due to which Pakistani foreign policy is biased and not working for Pakistani Interest.
We must ensure that new proposed foreign policy must have basic objective of support and provision of safeguard for Pakistani interest.
In case of India, we must believe pressurize policy by bringing dialogues at UN level. We must raise the issue of Indians causing insurgency such as operation deep strike in Pakistan and pressurize Indian regime via UN to avoid such insurgencies as such attempts are supporting terrorists directly.
We must address to UN saying that:
Indian attempts such as Operation Deep strike are helping terrorism to grow in Pakistan. We must project and highlight that: If we fail to counter insurgency due to Indian attempts then Pakistan will become unstable as a result of which we will not be in a position to fight as a front line ally. If UN want us to fight terror and is willing to see success, then it must refrain Indians to interfere and support terrorism by giving damage to Pakistan via insurgency.
-Issues such as Drone strike must also be solved.US must be refrained to carry drone strikes as it is increasing sympathy for Taliban supporters, as they along with militants, innocent civilians are losing their lives as a result of which their victims are joining militants to seek revenge [14]
4) Control and Educate:
The control and educate term proposes to control those elements who are supporting terrorism by supporting such organizations. Such elements are found prominently in media sector, ministry etc.
Thus we should control our media.For this, PEMRA must make policy against those channels and their media persons who are favoring their outfits and showing such reports or programmers which are contrary to the interests of Pakistan .
We must re-define the definition of freedom of speech which is the basic right given by Pakistani constitution as freedom of speech for peace and freedom from terrorism
We must run full fledge campaigns against their version of Islam and must support those operations which are carried out by Pakistan army as discussed in part 1[15]
5) Recover and Improve:
We must work on to recover all those damages due to war on terror. We must work on to recover damage of our economical and social infra-structure.
This angle also covers the lapses regarding to victim management due to natural disasters and bombast, poor governance and focuses upon strengthening police and armed sectors ,Intel sharing, provision of latest arms and ammunition and better ways to counter terrorism as well as focuses upon improving internal LEA culture, covering trust deficiency between them and fast provision of judiciary system and improved co-ordination between civil and armed sectors by taking prominent action against those corrupted elements within our ministry and other important sectors, also ensuring relief to subject by provision of scholarship programs, relief on daily use prices and reduction of pressure, frustration ,fear and anarchy by initiating cheap cultural and entertaining programs at local areas by mayors,nazims elected political parties.
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[1] according to Gannon, Kathy, "Militants gaining ground in Pakistan", Associated Press report at USA Today ,
[2]Bajoria, Jayshree (6 February 2008). "Pakistan's New Generation of Terrorists". Council on Foreign Relations.
[3][Rohan Gunaratna, Inside Al-Qaeda (New York: Berkley Publishing Company, 2003), pp. 75-8]
[4] ^ Hennessey, Kathleen (10 August 2010). "N.Y. bomber has al Qaeda tie, White House says". The San Francisco Chronicle.
[5]^ Jump up to:a b c Savage, Charlie (1 September 2010). "U.S. Adds Legal Pressure on Pakistani Taliban". The New York Times. Retrieved 1 March 2011.
[6] Dean Nelson (2007-07-15). "Bin Ladens deputy behind the Red Mosque bloodbath". London: The Times. Retrieved 2008-05-11
[7] From: Pakistan Observer |Counter terrorism models for Pakistan by Dr.Muhammed Khan.
[8] [9][10]From No radical shift in new anti-terror strategy, (2013-07-06) Dawn and The Express Tribune, August 13th, 2013.
[11] From No radical shift in new anti-terror strategy, (2013-07-06) Dawn Wikileaks: Bank rolling militancy in Pakistan.
.[12] [13] [14]From: The Echidna of terrorism part 2 ^Infrastructure of TTP and Lapses by slav defence
.and ^ Enterpise Team (Jun 1, 2003). "The Constitution of 1973`". The Story of Pakistan. The Story of Pakistan. Retrieved 2011-10-15.From: The Echidna of terrorism part 2 ^Infrastructure of TTP and Lapses by slav defence
[15]The Echidna of terrorism: Part 1|Operation Silence by slav defence
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