The Curious Case of China’s GDP Figures

[siegecrossbow]

Here's a Gordon Chang's presentation in support of a collapsing Chinese economy
Next Decade of India-China Relations...DVD 3 - YouTube

My opinion is that as long as Gordon Chang rambles about China's coming collapse, the opposite will happen. China should be worried once he actually shuts up.

 

[shuttler]

He's hightly qualified. Don't you think so?

he is at the same level as a fortune telling apprentice hanging in there year after year somewhere in China!

 

[twocents]

I posted the video just for fun. Hope you and others will take it in stride the way I did. I was really amused. BTW he delivered the speech at an Indian seminar on India-China relations in the next decade.

 

[Cyberian]

China is the largest energy consumer and electricity consumer. We are also the largest consumer of steel, iron ore, copper, aluminium, zinc, lead, nickel and tin. We are the largest coal consumer, 2nd largest oil consumer and 4th largest natural gas consumer.
China is also the largest or 2nd largest market for many global companies as we are the largest market for automobiles, luxury goods, LCD tv, smartphones, tablets, computers, art, and many others. Our fiscal revenues are the 2nd largest in the world. If anything the Chinese economy is understated due to the renminbi being undervalued. In many areas we are already the largest where it's very difficult to manipulate and get away with it.

I think the Chinese economy is alot closer to the US economy than many people realise. If you look at most indicators, China is either the largest or 2nd largest only by a small margin which suggests the US is not twice as large as the Chinese economy. Nominal GDP depends on exchange rate and the Renminbi is undervalued which makes the Chinese economy smaller.

The west can laugh all it wants, but it won't change the fact that we are working hard and catching up fast. If they want to dismiss us, then go ahead, it won't stop our development. They just don't like the fact that we are rising fast and they don't have control over us. Remember the Olympics how they made up lies that our swimmer took drugs (she passed all the tests) to destroy her reputation and China itself. The western media is doing its best to slow down or stop our development but it hasn't worked in the past and it won't work now.
The communist party of China has a very thick skin, they just ignore the noise and get on with making China stronger. If the west or anyone don't believe our numbers, then so be it. Whether they believe our numbers and development or not is irrelevant to us. We just put our head down and work our butt off, have been doing that for 30+ years despite western criticism.

Salaam to all the Muslims,



Go on tiger, rip them apart.

India's GDP Per Capita has been and it still is same as Pakistan's GDP Per Capita at today 19:15 hours 10th March 2013, unsure why they continue to live under the illusion of glory.

Indian mentality appears to be more and more similar to the apocalyptic doomsayers... this will happen, that will happen and India will inevitably come on top. What?! Get a life.



I wish China great success in this century, the Chinese century.

Salaam to all the Muslims.

 

[shuttler]

I posted the video just for fun. Hope you and others will take it in stride the way I did. I was really amused. BTW he delivered the speech at an Indian seminar on India-China relations in the next decade.

there you go! Playing the "China card" surely helps him get a fat check in india! Chang must have become a frequent visitor on PDF!

 

[Vassnti]

Strange no one wants to debate the article just the usual India China to and fro though thankfully politer than some threads.

A few things, the methods used for calculating the economy are based on the old Soviet style well you have a system desigend for calculating the number of potatoes grown by Ukranian pesants being applied to an economy that needs one to calculate the number of bullet trains.

Chinas now moving from an external/export growth economy to an internal domestic consumption growth model so the old method of calculation is getting further out of date.

Xi Jinping's first speach mentioned his goal to crack down on corruption and we are already seeing changes to that effect.

So we have a system of measures that are hard to apply to a modern Chinese economy and some figures that are adjusted to improve the prospects of local officials.

So we know China is growing but it is resonable to say that no one really knows by how much, it would be interesting to discuss how that affects the future of China.

 

[twocents]

So we have a system of measures that are hard to apply to a modern Chinese economy and some figures that are adjusted to improve the prospects of local officials.

So we know China is growing but it is resonable to say that no one really knows by how much, it would be interesting to discuss how that affects the future of China.

You are correct in pointing out the difference between the central government figures and the aggregate figures of provincial governments. The former is always several percentage points lower that the latter.

 

[mastaan]

Government revenue 2012:

China:$2.4 trillion

India: $ 200 billion

You see China government revenue is 12 times of India.
Since China tax rate lower than India, maybe China real GDP is more than 12 times of India.

Don't want no part of this 'you can't reach me and I will reach you' discussion, but your comparison is not fair... The Chinese model works with Govt being a major shareholder in large enterprises and thus the profit of those companies is the income for the government. In addition the Tax from those entities is also an income for the Govt. Whereas, the Indian model works on a Govt regulation but private ownership (largely, except few exceptions in sectors which Govt owns completely - like railways or partially) and those sectors that govt owns, anyways are so inefficient that either they are not-for-profit or heavily subsidized t to be unprofitable) and thus, the major income of the govt is the tax collection from corporate and individuals (plus excise income).

The crux of what I am saying is, the comparison that you are making is incorrect, as in China, it is majorly the Govt that primarily invested and in India, it is the private enterprise that invests, backed by the govt infra (in most cases, not for profit)... So, when you see the Indian GDP growing, it is far more diverse and in multiple hands and therefore, Govt revenue can not be yard stick of any such measurement contest...

 

[Skyman]

Strange no one wants to debate the article just the usual India China to and fro though thankfully politer than some threads.

A few things, the methods used for calculating the economy are based on the old Soviet style well you have a system desigend for calculating the number of potatoes grown by Ukranian pesants being applied to an economy that needs one to calculate the number of bullet trains.

Chinas now moving from an external/export growth economy to an internal domestic consumption growth model so the old method of calculation is getting further out of date.

Xi Jinping's first speach mentioned his goal to crack down on corruption and we are already seeing changes to that effect.

So we have a system of measures that are hard to apply to a modern Chinese economy and some figures that are adjusted to improve the prospects of local officials.

So we know China is growing but it is resonable to say that no one really knows by how much, it would be interesting to discuss how that affects the future of China.

What measurement do you want to use?
The west used electricity consumption as a barometer for growth but stopped using that once China became the largest electricity consumer in 2011.
As I said in an earlier post, China is now either the largest or 2nd largest in many areas. Trying to dismiss our rise is silly. Use whatever measurement you want to satisfy your ego, but we are growing fast and have atleast another good 20 years before our growth slows down.

 

[Vassnti]

. Trying to dismiss our rise is silly. Use whatever measurement you want to satisfy your ego, but we are growing fast and have atleast another good 20 years before our growth slows down.

did you read my post or do you just have a quota of gweilo to ridicule? Did i any where say China wasnt growing?

If you look again i said China is growing however the tools used to measure that growth are outdated. Considering the long unprecedented growth of the Chinese economy there may be no tools that will accuratley predict where it is going.

With out accurate economic measurement and indicators with uncertainty about the real rate of growth there are huge problems in controling the economy. Is growth 6% well good but if it is 11% perhaps the money supply needs to be tightened to prevent inflation but if you tighten supply at 6% you risk pushing the economy backwards.

The question isnt is there growth the question is how much? With out accurate tools you can no more say there are 20years of growth than you can say the economy will tank tomorrow, no one knows. That presents a unique problem in managing the economy.

Toss in that both Keynsian and Chicago school economics are based on western ideas on western markets and even the rules may not apply to China and you have a situation where the economic future of 1.3 billion people and a flow on to the rest of the world is at best uncertain.

So i would repeat

So we know China is growing but it is resonable to say that no one really knows by how much, it would be interesting to discuss how that affects the future of China.

 

[Ayush]

still doesnt take away their hard work.

 

[Pandora]

China is the second largest and the fastest growing economy in the world. It is a fact that cant be challenged by some lame articles. China didn't even reach half of the potential they apparently have so buckle up tight.

 

[Okemos]

More **** contest. Why are some of the Chinese members so defensive? Does it really matter how much China's GDP grows? Who cares. Let those investors figure out since they are the ones that care most about accurate figures.

I wish the Central Government stop using GDP as yardstick to promote lower level officials. Living standards, environmental quality and social indicators >>>>>>>>>> GPD for ordinary citizens, while GPD are for opportunistic investors that manipulate for their own profits.

Gordan Chang serves like good opium for some of the international members to get high. He does deliver!