Hurshid Celebi
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Time that we go in the fight arena.
The Conflict in Syria as it Relates to Turkey | Updates & Discussions
- Thread starter Lankan Ranger
- Start date
Time that we go in the fight arena.
Hurshid Celebi
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After heavy losses Iran significantly withdraws his soldiers from Syria.
The number decreased from 2000 to 700, Russian airstrikes failed to be effective.
İran, Suriye'den çekiliyor !
The number decreased from 2000 to 700, Russian airstrikes failed to be effective.
İran, Suriye'den çekiliyor !
Hurshid Celebi
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With old geopolitical realities resurfacing across Eurasia and commodity prices stuck in a slump, 2016 is shaping up to be an unsettling year for much of the world.
A logical place to begin is the country that bridges Europe and Asia: Turkey. This is the year when Turkey, nervous but more politically coherent than it was last year, will likely make a military move into northern Syria while trying to enlarge its footprint in northern Iraq. Turkey will not only confront the Islamic State but will also keep Kurdish expansion in check as it raises the stakes in its confrontations with its old rivals, Russia and Iran.
The last thing Russia wants is a confrontation with Turkey, the gatekeeper to the Black and Mediterranean seas, but confrontation is something it cannot avoid. Russia risks mission creep this year as it increases its involvement on the Syrian battlefield. But the Islamic State will be only part of Moscow's focus in Syria; Russia will try to draw the United States toward a compromise that would slow a Western push into Russia's former Soviet space. The United States will be willing to negotiate on tactical issues, but it will deny Moscow the leverage it seeks by linking counterterrorism cooperation to a broader strategic discussion. The U.S. administration will work instead to shore up European allies on the front lines with Russia.
Regardless of the participants' secondary motives, an intensified military campaign against the Islamic State will surely damage the militant group's core. However, the fledgling caliphate will not be eradicated this year. A lack of reliable ground forces will hamper the anti-Islamic State campaign. And the more the Islamic State's conventional capabilities weaken, the more actively the group and its affiliates will try to conduct terrorist attacks outside the Middle East to maintain its relevance. This in turn will drive competition within the jihadist landscape as al Qaeda factions in the Arabian Peninsula, the Maghreb, West Africa and South Asia try to keep pace.
The jihadist threat will fuel Islamophobia in the West and catalyze the fragmentation of Europe. Border controls and calls for preserving national identity will dilute the EU principle of allowing free movement of people. Closed borders will create a bottleneck of migrants in the Western Balkans, a region already rife with ethnic and religious tension. But the main story in Europe for 2016 will center on France and Germany, the two pillars of the European Union. Both will be preparing for 2017 elections, and both are leaning in a more nationalist and Euroskeptic direction. Over time, Germany will become more outspoken and much less willing to compromise on matters of EU integration.
The continuation of quantitative easing and another year of low oil prices will have a palliative effect on the deeper frictions in Europe as global commodity markets continue to suffer. The addition of Iranian oil to the market in the first half of the year will offset a drop in U.S. production. Any change to Saudi Arabia's oil output would come later in the year, after Riyadh has assessed the price impact from Iran's return as well as the effect on U.S. shale producers. Any attempt by Riyadh to coordinate a drop in production with Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates would come only after this assessment. Regardless of Iran's impact, Saudi Arabia will still be prepared to take on more debt and draw down reserves to cope with low oil prices.
China will not bring about relief in commodity prices, either. Consumption growth will slacken as Beijing struggles to implement reforms amid growing dissent among the Party elite. Even as Beijing faces the threat of party factionalization, it will still have enough economic heft to offer incentives to Southeast Asian states to counterbalance a stronger U.S. security presence in the region.
Low commodity prices and rising U.S. interest rates, which affect currencies, will also spell another difficult year for much of Latin America. The threat of impeachment will hang over Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and further sour the investment climate in Brazil in the short term. Argentina may have a new, reform-minded president, but his struggle with high inflation and foreign currency shortages means any moves to settle debt and to raise protectionist measures will be limited. In Venezuela, the end of Chavismo is near. An embattled United Socialist Party of Venezuela will eventually splinter under growing political and economic pressure, and the country risks defaulting on its foreign debt this year.
The defining events of 2016 will raise apprehension around the world, leading into what will likely be an even more tumultuous 2017 as an array of developing conflicts comes into sharper focus. The essential thing to bear in mind is that all these trends are connected. The U.S.-Russia standoff, surging nationalism in Europe, Turkey's re-emergence and other geopolitical currents will tie in to and feed off of one another. We will keep our eyes fixed on the bigger picture in 2016, for there is a much more complex one developing in 2017.
A logical place to begin is the country that bridges Europe and Asia: Turkey. This is the year when Turkey, nervous but more politically coherent than it was last year, will likely make a military move into northern Syria while trying to enlarge its footprint in northern Iraq. Turkey will not only confront the Islamic State but will also keep Kurdish expansion in check as it raises the stakes in its confrontations with its old rivals, Russia and Iran.
The last thing Russia wants is a confrontation with Turkey, the gatekeeper to the Black and Mediterranean seas, but confrontation is something it cannot avoid. Russia risks mission creep this year as it increases its involvement on the Syrian battlefield. But the Islamic State will be only part of Moscow's focus in Syria; Russia will try to draw the United States toward a compromise that would slow a Western push into Russia's former Soviet space. The United States will be willing to negotiate on tactical issues, but it will deny Moscow the leverage it seeks by linking counterterrorism cooperation to a broader strategic discussion. The U.S. administration will work instead to shore up European allies on the front lines with Russia.
Regardless of the participants' secondary motives, an intensified military campaign against the Islamic State will surely damage the militant group's core. However, the fledgling caliphate will not be eradicated this year. A lack of reliable ground forces will hamper the anti-Islamic State campaign. And the more the Islamic State's conventional capabilities weaken, the more actively the group and its affiliates will try to conduct terrorist attacks outside the Middle East to maintain its relevance. This in turn will drive competition within the jihadist landscape as al Qaeda factions in the Arabian Peninsula, the Maghreb, West Africa and South Asia try to keep pace.
The jihadist threat will fuel Islamophobia in the West and catalyze the fragmentation of Europe. Border controls and calls for preserving national identity will dilute the EU principle of allowing free movement of people. Closed borders will create a bottleneck of migrants in the Western Balkans, a region already rife with ethnic and religious tension. But the main story in Europe for 2016 will center on France and Germany, the two pillars of the European Union. Both will be preparing for 2017 elections, and both are leaning in a more nationalist and Euroskeptic direction. Over time, Germany will become more outspoken and much less willing to compromise on matters of EU integration.
The continuation of quantitative easing and another year of low oil prices will have a palliative effect on the deeper frictions in Europe as global commodity markets continue to suffer. The addition of Iranian oil to the market in the first half of the year will offset a drop in U.S. production. Any change to Saudi Arabia's oil output would come later in the year, after Riyadh has assessed the price impact from Iran's return as well as the effect on U.S. shale producers. Any attempt by Riyadh to coordinate a drop in production with Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates would come only after this assessment. Regardless of Iran's impact, Saudi Arabia will still be prepared to take on more debt and draw down reserves to cope with low oil prices.
China will not bring about relief in commodity prices, either. Consumption growth will slacken as Beijing struggles to implement reforms amid growing dissent among the Party elite. Even as Beijing faces the threat of party factionalization, it will still have enough economic heft to offer incentives to Southeast Asian states to counterbalance a stronger U.S. security presence in the region.
Low commodity prices and rising U.S. interest rates, which affect currencies, will also spell another difficult year for much of Latin America. The threat of impeachment will hang over Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and further sour the investment climate in Brazil in the short term. Argentina may have a new, reform-minded president, but his struggle with high inflation and foreign currency shortages means any moves to settle debt and to raise protectionist measures will be limited. In Venezuela, the end of Chavismo is near. An embattled United Socialist Party of Venezuela will eventually splinter under growing political and economic pressure, and the country risks defaulting on its foreign debt this year.
The defining events of 2016 will raise apprehension around the world, leading into what will likely be an even more tumultuous 2017 as an array of developing conflicts comes into sharper focus. The essential thing to bear in mind is that all these trends are connected. The U.S.-Russia standoff, surging nationalism in Europe, Turkey's re-emergence and other geopolitical currents will tie in to and feed off of one another. We will keep our eyes fixed on the bigger picture in 2016, for there is a much more complex one developing in 2017.
Hurshid Celebi
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Did Iran delivered UAVs to Syria or Hezbollah ? That one was seen at KKTC coast
Ababeel
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The situation in Syria is becoming more critical for Turkey as the Kurdith Communist PKK, ISIS, Russia, Asad Regime and Shia goons from Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan etc. are tightening the noose around the Syrian Revolution Forces in Northern Aleppo bordering Syria. It's do or die for Turkey but still no intervention from Turkish military on Jarablus-Azaz sector even though the Communist PKK Kurds have crossed the red line after crossing the Tishreen Dam and closing in on Manbij & Azaz.
Timur
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Did Iran delivered UAVs to Syria or Hezbollah ? That one was seen at KKTC coast
lol looks really like it
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CFJZMSmVIAE_B8V.jpg
Shahed 123 ? - Юрий Лямин
heheh good to have one in our hands.. so we can study them and learn what the iranians are capable of.. and where they get the parts for their uav
xenon54 out
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The second suicide bomber of Ankara Train Station was Syrian.
Ankara'daki patlamada ikinci canlı bombanın kimliği belirlendi
Ankara'daki patlamada ikinci canlı bombanın kimliği belirlendi
Yellow-place
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Any details about Cerablus operation supported by Turkish artillery?
http://haber.star.com.tr/dunya/muhaliflerin-cerablus-harekati-basladi/haber-1081587
http://haber.star.com.tr/dunya/muhaliflerin-cerablus-harekati-basladi/haber-1081587
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I wonder what will happen when Turkmen forces and PYD comes face to face in the future. I hope Turkmens will keep engaging them (we will surely assist them with Artillery)
Yellow-place
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Davutoğlu says 200 ISIL/ISID/DAES terorists killed with over 500 shots of tanks and howitzers after Sultanahmet bomb. A source says attacks made at Syria border and also close to Basika. And close to Basika, a place that is observed by uav's includes 140 terorists is totally destroyed.
Başbakan Davutoğlu: 200 DEAŞ mensubu öldürüldü | NTV
ABD'den Türkiye açıklaması: Mükemmeldi - Dünya Haberleri
Başbakan Davutoğlu: 200 DEAŞ mensubu öldürüldü | NTV
ABD'den Türkiye açıklaması: Mükemmeldi - Dünya Haberleri
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Random111
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can you give me plz some of your sources i am interested in such informations..
I've been mostly following the war via Twitter, I can link you my account so you can check whom I follow. Everyone has a bias ofcourse.
I can assure you that even though SAA has learned some lessons they often still surprise everyone by leaving gear intact. I distinctly remember that there were videos of rebels capturing bases with bunkers filled to the brim with ATGMs and munitions during the early days of the war but I can't find it now.
Here are a few random videos from Twitter when searching on 'Syria captured tank/atgm'. All from 2015, and the war has been going on for years now...
Here from 2012, overrun airbase with munitions stacked openly.
البوكمال غنائم كبيرة جدا جدا من مطار حمدان ج8 17 11 2012 - YouTube
Here is one from 2013
And from 2015 recently;
J. Faraday on Twitter: "#Syria, JN show's off captured weapon's and a Tank (T-72) in the Qalamon area , including an ATGM System with two http://t.co/Mx7TKXWEvs"
Hisham Almiraat on Twitter: "MT @IvanCNN: Rebels move ammunition captured from #Syria army base north of Aleppo http://t.co/irAGJJlM"
Hurshid Celebi
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Interesting Developments :
4 Russian and 4 Syrian Generals and 7 Spetsnaz Guards killed in Türkmendagi by opposition elite
operation forces.
http://haber.star.com.tr/guncel/turkmendaginda-toplanti-yapan-rus-generaller-olduruldu/haber-1086708
Ukraine President, we are soon in possible war with Russia
USA strengthens military presence in East Europe
http://uk.businessinsider.com/us-nato-military-presence-eastern-europe-putin-2016-2?r=US&IR=T
4 Russian and 4 Syrian Generals and 7 Spetsnaz Guards killed in Türkmendagi by opposition elite
operation forces.
http://haber.star.com.tr/guncel/turkmendaginda-toplanti-yapan-rus-generaller-olduruldu/haber-1086708
Ukraine President, we are soon in possible war with Russia
USA strengthens military presence in East Europe
http://uk.businessinsider.com/us-nato-military-presence-eastern-europe-putin-2016-2?r=US&IR=T
Last edited:
u.MP
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I hope you guys have been following recent events in Syria.. very interesting to see if Turkish government will take any actions..
http://syria.liveuamap.com/
The SAA has almost completely cut off the rebels in Northern Aleppo (border with turkey) leaving a small pocket of rebel territory around the city Azaz. They are now surrounded by three forces: The Kurdish Forces, Isis and the SAA. This means they are cut off from any reinforcements from; Idlib, Rebels in the city of Aleppo, Latakia (Latakia cant even afford to send any reinforcements really) and the Hama front. Only way of getting aid is from Turkey, but most of the times that aid gets bombed by Russian planes..
http://syria.liveuamap.com/
The SAA has almost completely cut off the rebels in Northern Aleppo (border with turkey) leaving a small pocket of rebel territory around the city Azaz. They are now surrounded by three forces: The Kurdish Forces, Isis and the SAA. This means they are cut off from any reinforcements from; Idlib, Rebels in the city of Aleppo, Latakia (Latakia cant even afford to send any reinforcements really) and the Hama front. Only way of getting aid is from Turkey, but most of the times that aid gets bombed by Russian planes..
Hurshid Celebi
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I follow. There are no red lines anymore anywhere. It is a comedy of the GOV.
US ally terrorist POLAT in PYD and before in PKK "uniform". ROJAVA ARMY.
If we don't go with boots in Syria and Iraq, we will suffer in East and SE Turkey for the next 10 years much more than now !
ARE YOU JOKING MR. PM ?
Partly Confirmed , seems to be a PENTAGON operation
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/u-s-spots-russian-commandos-in-syria/
http://aa.com.tr/en/world/4-russian-generals-killed-in-syria-s-turkmen-mountain-sources/514872
US ally terrorist POLAT in PYD and before in PKK "uniform". ROJAVA ARMY.
If we don't go with boots in Syria and Iraq, we will suffer in East and SE Turkey for the next 10 years much more than now !
ARE YOU JOKING MR. PM ?
Partly Confirmed , seems to be a PENTAGON operation
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/u-s-spots-russian-commandos-in-syria/
http://aa.com.tr/en/world/4-russian-generals-killed-in-syria-s-turkmen-mountain-sources/514872
u.MP
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Some more developments on the situation in North Aleppo..
Rebels are fighting back against the SAA, the SAA has captured alot of towns/villages thanks to non-stop russian bombing and supplies on the ground. (new weapons,uniforms/armor/helmets AND things like the T90 tank!)
As if this wasnt enough, the Kurds are now slowly starting to take over villages in the small rebel pocket bordering Turkey! The YPG/SDF are acting like real rats and are probably thinking about taking over rebel territory so they only have to fight ISIS in order to control northern Syria.
Turkish government meanwhile
Rebels are fighting back against the SAA, the SAA has captured alot of towns/villages thanks to non-stop russian bombing and supplies on the ground. (new weapons,uniforms/armor/helmets AND things like the T90 tank!)
As if this wasnt enough, the Kurds are now slowly starting to take over villages in the small rebel pocket bordering Turkey! The YPG/SDF are acting like real rats and are probably thinking about taking over rebel territory so they only have to fight ISIS in order to control northern Syria.
Turkish government meanwhile
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