The China seas strategy Pt.1

[Genesis]

The China seas strategy Pt.1

The great Han emperor of Wu, the one that made the greatest contribution to China in terms of its power and size.


While some have seen the Chinese moves as some sort of blunder by China, to me it is not so, it is a sound strategy that has placed the initiative in our hands and has our “enemies” playing by our rules and in our pace.



First let’s talk the South China Sea, quite a few has accused us of overreaching and arrogance. What they failed to see is the meaning behind these moves. By declaring and asserting these claims we have given us the initiative. We have the choice of peace and war, and we have chosen war.

The Chinese strategist for Chang Kai Shek that was my inspiration for this piece, he proposed economically destroy Feng, politically defeat Yan, militarily defeat Li, and diplomatically defeat Zhang. He was key to Chang's eventual decisive victory in the central plains war.

But it’s not going to be fought with guns, but with strategy. The three prong attack, “defeat” Vietnam with money, Philippines with politics, and Malaysia with result.

This depicts an event in the warring states period of China, where Zhang Yi, the great Qin diplomat fools the king of Chu into inaction with false promises of riches and land.

Now what does that mean, Vietnam and China have strong economic ties, as our manufacturing changes and regulations toughen up, we will move factories to Vietnam, and with the modern exchanges between the two countries we will be very important to Vietnam. While not a one way relationship, our mutual importance to each other in economics would mean war is out of the question and even posturing is counterproductive.

Vietnam being what it is must deliver economic results, so exchanges with China will far outpace the importance placed on a few rocks that Vietnam cannot actually control. On the other hand, even if Vietnam could do so, in today’s cut throat business environment, antagonizing China would just mean China would move manufacturing to any of the other dozens of countries that wants it and some are even better placed than Vietnam like India and Pakistan, one is a giant of 1.2 billion, the other is also a booming population center, but boost of greater relations with China.

For all the talk of foreign investments moving to other countries what some don’t understand is why, we are deliberately pushing them out. The recent free economic zones makes up of 70% Chinese investments, while not representative, but it is a good indication that China has strengthened greatly over the last 30 years, and instead of relying on foreign investments, we are the ones holding the reins of power.

In order to become an economic power, Vietnam must be in a good relationship with China, and there is every indication that Vietnam is doing exactly that. Vietnamese government is not encouraging demonstrations, and it’s not causing a lot of noise. This will only increase as time passes.

The Qin emperor, the first to call himself emperor, but not the first to unite China. He defeated the six kingdoms through military and diplomatic means. The conquer of men.

“Defeating” Philippines with politics is a little bit trickier and time consuming, but very manageable. Philippines has seen at ASEAN that ASEAN values China more than it values Philippines. Time and time again we have courted ASEAN countries and they have reciprocated in turn. Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand are very friendly with us and our economic exchanges are far more important to them than the one with Philippines. Especially Thailand now a days with their special status as the representative of ASEAN to China, they do not want to lose this title and it is of utmost benefit to them. This is especially important these days. I have mentioned Vietnam previously.

That leaves Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei, and Singapore. Indonesia is far more concerned with Australian and the US than with China, the US thinks it is scaring China with its deployments in Australia, but it does more harm to relations with Indonesia than actual effect with China.

Malaysia I will talk further down the post, while Brunei is not a country that will make a noise. Singapore is a unique case, while obviously an American ally; they are not a particularly big country and won’t want to get involved. However they are also of a Chinese decent country and in no way does this mean Ally, but it does mean their differences with us over nothing won’t become more than nothing.

Outside of ASEAN, Philippines have appealed to UN, and other organizations and countries, including EU and US. In terms of UN we are a permanent member, and any influence the Philippines thinks it has there is wishful thinking. On the off chance that certain rulings might rule against us, we can just quite whatever treaty that dictates as such. With our involvement in BRICS, SCO, and other organizations, we are very influential in the international stage, and won’t face much of a backlash, which might only come from US and Philippines, as well as Japan.

Western Europe including UK, France and Germany are actually much more pragmatic. Not being the global hegemon, they don’t have any conflict of interests with China, in fact one of mutual benefit Is more fitting. Recent visits and exchanges has shown EU to be firmly uninterested in the Asian conflict and wants instead to focus on economic exchanges.

Now let’s move on to US, just like WW2, the US will always feel Europe is the greater priority, it was only with a weakened Russia that US has moved away from that, but now the pressure is on, and the pivot to Asia will no longer seem the greater need. The US will try to win China. Obviously they know they can’t and that China won’t back US over Russia, especially given the current circumstances, but the US would like China to be as neutral as possible, and there is the key priority for US. Other than some symbolic sales, and a few meaningless gestures, any real action from the US will be muted at best.

With Philippines isolated in the world of great power politics, even the island nation will realize eventually that in today’s world, guns may not be fired as freely, but war is still very much alive and kicking. Just that the devil has changed face.

King of Chu bids good bye to his concubine. A classic tale of the surrounded king finally accepts defeat.


Lastly Malaysia, being a nation as is, the Malaysians are very unlikely to be of a concern to China. They were muted whenever we exercises there and only makes some meaningless and isolated comment now and again, it’s obvious Malaysia doesn’t place much importance to this issue and feels trade and domestic issues are more important, and who can blame them.

With the most vocal of the nations gone the way of the beetles, Malaysia won’t feel the need or the desire to challenge China.

The Yongle emperor of Ming, the man who sent out the treasure fleets, the zenith of Chinese civilization, when literally hundreds of nations, tribes from tip of Southern Africa, to middle east, and India, and all of east and south east Asia, would come and pay tribute to his greatness.


So to sum up, economy to solve Vietnam, Politics for Philippines, and inevitability for Malaysia is the strategy China has taken and has shown that to be the case. Unlike all the Western writers who lives in this fantasy world where every assumption is the fall of China, I live in a world where Gordon Chang is as he is, a fraud and an idiot. Only the stupidest person would pick up a rock and hurt his foot three times and still not learnt his lesson.

To any China haters I must say, they are too stuck in the European mind set where might must be used in a physical way, but they forget, China has a history far richer than they and we have been conducting diplomacy and contemplating strategy while Europe was still figuring out fire.

 

[Viet]

With exception of using force and intimidation, the people of Vietnam always welcome Chinese business and social interaction.

The problem is deeply rooted. We both China and Vietnam have a "complicated" relationship. The issue begins with the defintion of what and how the relationship... It is too historic laden too emotional. The current SE Sea dispute is adding on top. I am not sure how the future relationship may look like. It is too early to tell. It can´t be solved overnight.

 

[Zero_wing]

Well the Nazi and the Imperial Japanese tried things like this so as the old Empires that came before but they are all gone now i say let the chinese Imperial swans do their worse they all end up the same

 

[xunzi]

We are in the driver seat in all of our disputes. It gives us confidence in our approach and our strategists are much deeper thinker than these claimants. I must say the biggest threat to us is ourselves.

 

[Mighty Caty]

The China seas strategy Pt.1

The great Han emperor of Wu, the one that made the greatest contribution to China in terms of its power and size.


While some have seen the Chinese moves as some sort of blunder by China, to me it is not so, it is a sound strategy that has placed the initiative in our hands and has our “enemies” playing by our rules and in our pace.



First let’s talk the South China Sea, quite a few has accused us of overreaching and arrogance. What they failed to see is the meaning behind these moves. By declaring and asserting these claims we have given us the initiative. We have the choice of peace and war, and we have chosen war.

The Chinese strategist for Chang Kai Shek that was my inspiration for this piece, he proposed economically destroy Feng, politically defeat Yan, militarily defeat Li, and diplomatically defeat Zhang. He was key to Chang's eventual decisive victory in the central plains war.

But it’s not going to be fought with guns, but with strategy. The three prong attack, “defeat” Vietnam with money, Philippines with politics, and Malaysia with result.

This depicts an event in the warring states period of China, where Zhang Yi, the great Qin diplomat fools the king of Chu into inaction with false promises of riches and land.

Now what does that mean, Vietnam and China have strong economic ties, as our manufacturing changes and regulations toughen up, we will move factories to Vietnam, and with the modern exchanges between the two countries we will be very important to Vietnam. While not a one way relationship, our mutual importance to each other in economics would mean war is out of the question and even posturing is counterproductive.

Vietnam being what it is must deliver economic results, so exchanges with China will far outpace the importance placed on a few rocks that Vietnam cannot actually control. On the other hand, even if Vietnam could do so, in today’s cut throat business environment, antagonizing China would just mean China would move manufacturing to any of the other dozens of countries that wants it and some are even better placed than Vietnam like India and Pakistan, one is a giant of 1.2 billion, the other is also a booming population center, but boost of greater relations with China.

For all the talk of foreign investments moving to other countries what some don’t understand is why, we are deliberately pushing them out. The recent free economic zones makes up of 70% Chinese investments, while not representative, but it is a good indication that China has strengthened greatly over the last 30 years, and instead of relying on foreign investments, we are the ones holding the reins of power.

In order to become an economic power, Vietnam must be in a good relationship with China, and there is every indication that Vietnam is doing exactly that. Vietnamese government is not encouraging demonstrations, and it’s not causing a lot of noise. This will only increase as time passes.

The Qin emperor, the first to call himself emperor, but not the first to unite China. He defeated the six kingdoms through military and diplomatic means. The conquer of men.

“Defeating” Philippines with politics is a little bit trickier and time consuming, but very manageable. Philippines has seen at ASEAN that ASEAN values China more than it values Philippines. Time and time again we have courted ASEAN countries and they have reciprocated in turn. Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand are very friendly with us and our economic exchanges are far more important to them than the one with Philippines. Especially Thailand now a days with their special status as the representative of ASEAN to China, they do not want to lose this title and it is of utmost benefit to them. This is especially important these days. I have mentioned Vietnam previously.

That leaves Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei, and Singapore. Indonesia is far more concerned with Australian and the US than with China, the US thinks it is scaring China with its deployments in Australia, but it does more harm to relations with Indonesia than actual effect with China.

Malaysia I will talk further down the post, while Brunei is not a country that will make a noise. Singapore is a unique case, while obviously an American ally; they are not a particularly big country and won’t want to get involved. However they are also of a Chinese decent country and in no way does this mean Ally, but it does mean their differences with us over nothing won’t become more than nothing.

Outside of ASEAN, Philippines have appealed to UN, and other organizations and countries, including EU and US. In terms of UN we are a permanent member, and any influence the Philippines thinks it has there is wishful thinking. On the off chance that certain rulings might rule against us, we can just quite whatever treaty that dictates as such. With our involvement in BRICS, SCO, and other organizations, we are very influential in the international stage, and won’t face much of a backlash, which might only come from US and Philippines, as well as Japan.

Western Europe including UK, France and Germany are actually much more pragmatic. Not being the global hegemon, they don’t have any conflict of interests with China, in fact one of mutual benefit Is more fitting. Recent visits and exchanges has shown EU to be firmly uninterested in the Asian conflict and wants instead to focus on economic exchanges.

Now let’s move on to US, just like WW2, the US will always feel Europe is the greater priority, it was only with a weakened Russia that US has moved away from that, but now the pressure is on, and the pivot to Asia will no longer seem the greater need. The US will try to win China. Obviously they know they can’t and that China won’t back US over Russia, especially given the current circumstances, but the US would like China to be as neutral as possible, and there is the key priority for US. Other than some symbolic sales, and a few meaningless gestures, any real action from the US will be muted at best.

With Philippines isolated in the world of great power politics, even the island nation will realize eventually that in today’s world, guns may not be fired as freely, but war is still very much alive and kicking. Just that the devil has changed face.

King of Chu bids good bye to his concubine. A classic tale of the surrounded king finally accepts defeat.


Lastly Malaysia, being a nation as is, the Malaysians are very unlikely to be of a concern to China. They were muted whenever we exercises there and only makes some meaningless and isolated comment now and again, it’s obvious Malaysia doesn’t place much importance to this issue and feels trade and domestic issues are more important, and who can blame them.

With the most vocal of the nations gone the way of the beetles, Malaysia won’t feel the need or the desire to challenge China.

The Yongle emperor of Ming, the man who sent out the treasure fleets, the zenith of Chinese civilization, when literally hundreds of nations, tribes from tip of Southern Africa, to middle east, and India, and all of east and south east Asia, would come and pay tribute to his greatness.


So to sum up, economy to solve Vietnam, Politics for Philippines, and inevitability for Malaysia is the strategy China has taken and has shown that to be the case. Unlike all the Western writers who lives in this fantasy world where every assumption is the fall of China, I live in a world where Gordon Chang is as he is, a fraud and an idiot. Only the stupidest person would pick up a rock and hurt his foot three times and still not learnt his lesson.

To any China haters I must say, they are too stuck in the European mind set where might must be used in a physical way, but they forget, China has a history far richer than they and we have been conducting diplomacy and contemplating strategy while Europe was still figuring out fire.

I think you are over simplified the whole situation in the Pacific.

The root problem is, it is not what the Chinese do (actually to some extend) Rather it's the mentality and the mindset of what the Chinese want to achieve.

Member here or Chinese everywhere ought to know, nobody, I repeat, nobody would have any problem China dominate Asia, however, the goal for Chinese is not simple domination, but rather a total domination of Asia, something which US is currently doing.

With Chinese rise, the US influence would most certainly diminished, as they would need to share power and eventually concede to China or India for Asian Dominance. However, the problem currently Chinese encountered is the mindset of which they were showing in Asia, that is to replace US domination as impose their own domination to the area.

As the old WHO song once said "Meet the new boss, same as old boss" [From WHO - don't get fool again] If what china do is simply want to replace US as the current dominator and seek exclusive advantages to the area, then there would always going to be resistance.

If Chinese is smart, they would know by simply pushing US away, Chinese would see as a liberator of Asia and country from all would respect the Chinese rise, however, if Chinese is to engage a US way of domination, then this will push the Asian Nation to think that would be the same old trick again, and why we would want China to dominate us instead of the America, it's the same story with the same ending for them.

Worse, by a US domination, the "Boss" is far away (On the other side of the Pacific) so the influence does not post a serious threat to their own natural existence. But the "New Boss" is living down the street, and it's far too easy for the new boss to punish the non-cooperating employee than the old boss, then this is where the problem at. So what the Asian nation is going to do? Either totally submit to the new boss or simply trying to help the old boss to get rid of the new boss. Which is as what we see now. Some country submit, but some would just push further and further away to the US camp.

The best thing the Chinese can do is to accept a status quo that US will be in Asia region, the Chinese could dominate Asia, but the redline would be when the Chinese is trying to totally push the American out of the way. Which is where and when a coalition of willing will found themselves against China, with US backing.

 

[xunzi]

The best thing the Chinese can do is to accept a status quo that US will be in Asia region, the Chinese could dominate Asia, but the redline would be when the Chinese is trying to totally push the American out of the way. Which is where and when a coalition of willing will found themselves against China, with US backing.

Actually we expect the US to stay in Asia for a long time. In fact, our leaders already develop a new level of cooperation. The win-win cooperation between Sino-US in this 21st century. A new model to speak. Our intention is not to remove the US, it is to mitigate the US's dominance and global hegemony. Someone has to provide a counterweight to the US's foreign policy decision. The US's style of regime topple and aggressive diplomacy is not conducive to solving sensitive cases and give fear to other countries in the region if their interests are not align with the US.

 

[Srinivas]

At least Hitler had some legitimate reasons like driving away French from Germany's coal mines and setting right the economy of his country.

Chinese are hilarious with their logic, when nationalism is on the rise any out rageous funny claim can be sold to the oppressed public.

Chinese CCP cannot convince nor oppress Chinese public for long!

 

[xunzi]

At least Hitler had some legitimate reasons like driving away French from Germany's coal mines and setting right the economy of his country.

Chinese are hilarious with their logic, when nationalism is on the rise any out rageous funny claim can be sold to the oppressed public.

Chinese CCP cannot convince nor oppress Chinese public for long!

Unfortunately, my Indian friend, our claims did not just pop up out of nowhere recently. Our claims remain consistent for over 60 years. It had not change one bit. What ours will be ours. This is a matter of principle and not negotiable because these claimants think they have the backup of the West.

 

[Mighty Caty]

Actually we expect the US to stay in Asia for a long time. In fact, our leaders already develop a new level of cooperation. The win-win cooperation between Sino-US in this 21st century. A new model to speak. Our intention is not to remove the US, it is to mitigate the US's dominance and global hegemony. Someone has to provide a counterweight to the US's foreign policy decision. The US's style of regime topple and aggressive diplomacy is not conducive to solving sensitive cases and give fear to other countries in the region if their interests are not align with the US.

The sentence in red was not shared with many Chinese, here, other forum and in China including the OP.

 

[xunzi]

The sentence in red was not shared with many Chinese, here, other forum and in China including the OP.

When it comes to official stance and foreign relation, it's best to observe what our leaders said and speculate on that. I understand a few of my compatriot is eager to kick out the US for reasons we already know. But from our national strategic standpoint, the US plays a pivotal role in keeping our historic rival enemy in check. I'm talking about Japan here. We have no direct territorial dispute or historical grievance with the US. Our disputes revolve around the US's hegemony, disrespectful of other country territory, arrogance, and one-side foreign policy. With Japan, our dispute is deep in history and internal hatred. We believe Japan will backstab all Asian brothers in order of kowtowing to the West for their national interest. They did that in the 17th and 20th century and will do so again today. It's only the Philippines who believe Japan has their interest. Japan is only using them to check us.

When it comes to foreign diplomacy and foreign policy, I would advice using my words.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Not sure if moving manufacturing offshore is a sound strategic move in the long run.

Who can claim that US companies moving production to China was a smart move. It made sense economically but strategically it is a blunder. Same with Japan.. they were known for their "Rising Sun"' economy in the 80's. They then offshored production and the decline came. Offshoring only makes other countries more competitive at the cost of yourself.

If your theory on moving manufacturing to Vietnam was true China would be subservient to the US and Japan.

Read some prophetic words from "The Sun also Sets" back in 1989.
Spendthrift Japan? : THE SUN ALSO SETS: The Limits to Japan's Economic Power by Bill Emmott; (Times Books: $18.95; 250 pp.) - Los Angeles Times

 

[Srinivas]

Unfortunately, my Indian friend, our claims did not just pop up out of nowhere recently. Our claims remain consistent for over 60 years. It had not change one bit. What ours will be ours. This is a matter of principle and not negotiable because these claimants think they have the backup of the West.

Ok my friend !!

Instead of the reasons and logic which is coming from Chinese foreign ministry and spokes person why not CCP accept that their policies are compromised and if they proceed with these policies China along with adjacent regions are doomed and they are not in control of their policies.

Chinese have plenty of options to rise but this is nothing but madness.

 

[xunzi]

Ok my friend !!

Instead of the reasons and logic which is coming from Chinese foreign ministry and spokes person why not CCP accept that their policies are compromised and if they proceed with these policies China along with adjacent regions are doomed and they are not in control of their policies.

Chinese have plenty of options to rise but this is nothing but madness.

My friend, the question you should ask the world is why is it okay to steal our territory. We are not the 1895 China anymore. We are not going to let West and her allies bully their way and dictate term with us.

 

[bolo]

Not sure if moving manufacturing offshore is a sound strategic move in the long run.

Who can claim that US companies moving production to China was a smart move. It made sense economically but strategically it is a blunder. Same with Japan.. they were known for their "Rising Sun"' economy in the 80's. They then offshored production and the decline came. Offshoring only makes other countries more competitive at the cost of yourself.

If your theory on moving manufacturing to Vietnam was true China would be subservient to the US and Japan.

Read some prophetic words from "The Sun also Sets" back in 1989.
Spendthrift Japan? : THE SUN ALSO SETS: The Limits to Japan's Economic Power by Bill Emmott; (Times Books: $18.95; 250 pp.) - Los Angeles Times

You know who wrote that OP's piece?

 

[Genesis]

With exception of using force and intimidation, the people of Vietnam always welcome Chinese business and social interaction.

The problem is deeply rooted. We both China and Vietnam have a "complicated" relationship. The issue begins with the defintion of what and how the relationship... It is too historic laden too emotional. The current SE Sea dispute is adding on top. I am not sure how the future relationship may look like. It is too early to tell. It can´t be solved overnight.

Your government is smart, they will make the tough choices, just like I said, violence is not the way to go, certainly sometimes things may get a little out of hand, but the main strategy is economy.



As to the Indian and Filippino posts, why do the trolls of respective country always come to my thread, but at least there's two comparison with Hitler, that's always fun. Did you guys even read what I wrote? Or is it too difficult? Is Hitler the only person you guys know in History?