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Thar: claims vs facts
Sunday, July 04, 2010
Dr Farrukh Saleem
Claim 1: Thar coal reserves stand at a colossal 185 billion tons. Fact 1: Pakistan's proven reserves of bituminous or anthracite (higher-quality) coal are next to nothing. Pakistan's proven reserves of sub-bituminous and lignite reserves (lignite is brown coal, the lowest-ranked coal) stand at 3,050 million tons, which amounts to 0.3 per cent of the global total. (Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.)
Claim 2: Thar coal reserves dwarf Saudi Arabia's proven oil reserves of 264 billion barrels. (Saudi reserves amount to 25 percent of the global total.) Fact 2: In 1981, Pakistan produced 1.6 million tons of coal. Over the past 25 years our coal production has steadily gone up and we currently produce around 4.3 million tons a year, or a meagre 0.6 percent of world production. Asad Umar, president of Engro Corporation Limited, the company that has signed a joint venture with the government of Sindh for Thar Block II, has this to say on the subject: "One cannot make a direct comparison between oil and coal because oil travels very well and coal does not, and therefore oil dominates the energy market. So even if your [coal] reserves are bigger than Saudi Arabia's [oil reserves], it doesn't mean that you are going to become a Saudi Arabia of energy. And given that we don't have the best-quality coal, we have lignite coal which is very high in moisture, it's not going to be a globally traded commodity. It's not that we will start exporting 10 million barrels of oil energy per day."
Claim 3: Thar coal reserves can produce enough electricity to end load-shedding and then power Pakistan for the following 50 years. Fact 3: Leading financial institutions around the world have long discontinued the financing of coal-fired power plants. According to Engro, "Pakistan is unlikely to generate any power from Thar coal before 2016. Feasibility should be completed by the end of 2010. Then one year for financial close and then four years of execution, which means the end of 2015."
Claim 4: Americans do not want Pakistan to develop Thar coal reserves. Fact 4: As a matter of record, in the early 1990s, it was the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), actually looking for water, which first identified the presence of coal deposits in Thar.
Claim 5: Thar coal can be converted into gas and the gas can then be converted into transportation fuels. Fact 5: The South African company Sasol (Suid Afrikaanse Steenkool en Olie) has been producing petrol and diesel from coal (through the Fischer-Tropsch process). In essence, coal gasification is a proven technology. Thar coal can potentially be converted into gas, but the question that is yet to be answered is: will such conversion be cost-effective and economically viable?
Claim 6: Thar coal is both technologically and economically viable. Fact 6: There is not a single scientific study on record that claims that Thar coal is both technologically and economically viable. Technical and economic feasibility studies are yet to be undertaken. At the same time, "regional geologic conditions, coal seam continuity, structure, quality, topography, altitude, slope, surface drainage patterns, groundwater conditions, availability of labour and materials, coal purchaser requirements, capital investment requirements" and environmental impact are yet to be ascertained.
Imagine. Japan's proven reserves of lignite coal is zero, but Japan manages to produce $4 trillion worth of goods and services a year. It's not about extracting coal. The real name of the game is developing your human capital.
The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com
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Thar: claims vs facts
Sunday, July 04, 2010
Dr Farrukh Saleem
Claim 1: Thar coal reserves stand at a colossal 185 billion tons. Fact 1: Pakistan's proven reserves of bituminous or anthracite (higher-quality) coal are next to nothing. Pakistan's proven reserves of sub-bituminous and lignite reserves (lignite is brown coal, the lowest-ranked coal) stand at 3,050 million tons, which amounts to 0.3 per cent of the global total. (Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.)
Claim 2: Thar coal reserves dwarf Saudi Arabia's proven oil reserves of 264 billion barrels. (Saudi reserves amount to 25 percent of the global total.) Fact 2: In 1981, Pakistan produced 1.6 million tons of coal. Over the past 25 years our coal production has steadily gone up and we currently produce around 4.3 million tons a year, or a meagre 0.6 percent of world production. Asad Umar, president of Engro Corporation Limited, the company that has signed a joint venture with the government of Sindh for Thar Block II, has this to say on the subject: "One cannot make a direct comparison between oil and coal because oil travels very well and coal does not, and therefore oil dominates the energy market. So even if your [coal] reserves are bigger than Saudi Arabia's [oil reserves], it doesn't mean that you are going to become a Saudi Arabia of energy. And given that we don't have the best-quality coal, we have lignite coal which is very high in moisture, it's not going to be a globally traded commodity. It's not that we will start exporting 10 million barrels of oil energy per day."
Claim 3: Thar coal reserves can produce enough electricity to end load-shedding and then power Pakistan for the following 50 years. Fact 3: Leading financial institutions around the world have long discontinued the financing of coal-fired power plants. According to Engro, "Pakistan is unlikely to generate any power from Thar coal before 2016. Feasibility should be completed by the end of 2010. Then one year for financial close and then four years of execution, which means the end of 2015."
Claim 4: Americans do not want Pakistan to develop Thar coal reserves. Fact 4: As a matter of record, in the early 1990s, it was the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), actually looking for water, which first identified the presence of coal deposits in Thar.
Claim 5: Thar coal can be converted into gas and the gas can then be converted into transportation fuels. Fact 5: The South African company Sasol (Suid Afrikaanse Steenkool en Olie) has been producing petrol and diesel from coal (through the Fischer-Tropsch process). In essence, coal gasification is a proven technology. Thar coal can potentially be converted into gas, but the question that is yet to be answered is: will such conversion be cost-effective and economically viable?
Claim 6: Thar coal is both technologically and economically viable. Fact 6: There is not a single scientific study on record that claims that Thar coal is both technologically and economically viable. Technical and economic feasibility studies are yet to be undertaken. At the same time, "regional geologic conditions, coal seam continuity, structure, quality, topography, altitude, slope, surface drainage patterns, groundwater conditions, availability of labour and materials, coal purchaser requirements, capital investment requirements" and environmental impact are yet to be ascertained.
Imagine. Japan's proven reserves of lignite coal is zero, but Japan manages to produce $4 trillion worth of goods and services a year. It's not about extracting coal. The real name of the game is developing your human capital.
The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com
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