The speed at which the diaspora pulled its money and the uptic in emigration indicates the balancing act that was going on in the previous few years, especially during Covid. With Covid hopefully being less of an issue in 2023 and oil prices perhaps coming down, there maybe an opportunity to get back to that balance with a $10-15 Billion of funds into the economy (a number based on the news that the PDM government is looking for a $13 Billion IMF loan). PTI will have to have a plan to raise that kind of funding. FDI, not loans (mostly through remittances).
That’s why both sides (PTI and Establishment) need to get serious and frankly negotiate a new arrangement. PTI has public support, it needs to use it to go around potential investors to drum up support ahead of elections, and prove their economic worth, to those weary of taking them on. It has convinced the world it has deep enough domestic and international support in the diaspora, it’s needs to spend its political capital on building an economic plan for recovery. A platform with a plan. It also needs to have the blessing of the establishment to forge a firm but constructive arrangement with Afghans. No more appeasement but a plan built on economic, that finally gets the Trans-Afghan rail routes built and the mining sector up and running.
Next it need to go through its ranks of advisors and minsters, ahead of the elections, and ask people to step aside for more capable people. Once in power, it will look bad removing people. Only keeping those that are competent or politically necessary, and bringing in the best of the best Pakistanis regardless of their background. It will also have to court liberals domestically and international to rebuild its own image and the national image, to capitalize on domestic momentum.
The establishment will have to end the elite capture and open up industries for investment. New entrepreneurial talent and investment can form joint ventures with existing companies to become more globally competitive and boost exports. New firms should also be allowed to operate on equal footing. The example of the East Asian tigers will have to be studied closely, but cutting out inefficiencies and reducing corruption (such as nepotism) should allow funds to be used where they will generate the most growth and returns.
Pakistan is so inefficient in so many ways (like water use), that just bring in good management and capital can at least let us catch up to neighboring countries.
IK will have to use a 2/3 majority to do real structural changes. He is only mortal, but a change in the political landscape will be beneficial to all political parties in the long run as well as the elite, through a thriving economy (the value of the elites property and businesses will go up as the GDP per capita increases) and a populace focused on their work and no longer as much on politics.
Besides, a caretaker/technocratic/non-democratic government, if it rules for too long will be seen as a type of undeclared martial law. The only solution is one that strengths and works within the constitution
