Taliban Military Chief Mullah Baradar captured by Pakistan

[Valiant_Soul]

maybe be in the Great Britain but not in Pakistan. We had a clossal judiciary crisis being unfolded in the country with opposition announcing another possible long march. Journalists and tv channels had to cover this massive domestic political crisis but still managed to give extensive coverage to this arrest. As indicated in a post a few pages back, seems like westerns wanted and expected major rallies on the streets of Pakistan in light of this arrest, for some strange reasons.

I totally understand, may be it was necessary to downplay the news and let it remain low.

 

[Awesome]

"If Gall's theory is correct, the US should have taken Pakistan along to begin with, instead of working behind our backs, implying duplicity, especially given the US-Pak trust deficit."

I see no theory from Gall. I see reported speculation of un-named Pakistani intelligence sources that we've negotiated with the taliban and excluded Pakistan from such.

I see that speculation supported by further un-named American intelligence sources in Europe-

“I know that our people had been in touch with people around him and were negotiating with him,”

I also denials of such from un-named American sources.

"An American official in Washington who has been briefed on the arrest denied that there had been negotiations with the Taliban commander or that Pakistani intelligence engineered the arrest to ensure a role in negotiations. 'That’s a conspiracy theory to which I give no credit, because it’s just not true,' the official said."

Those denials dove-tail with stated comments by Sec'y of State Clinton-

Clinton Says No To Talking To 'Really Bad Guys' In Taliban-AFP Jan. 30, 2010

Finally, if this was an effort by the ISI to isolate Baradar from the Americans, what explains the "jointness" of the operation and our participation in his interrogation? Can you imagine that?

BARADAR: I'm negotiating with the Americans and you're busting me?

ISI: We don't want you to do so.

CIA: Yeah, but we do.

BARADAR: Will you guys make up your mind, please. I'm taking a nap until you figure this out.

One last edit-Here's an article that suggests we don't see any possibility of meaningful negotiation until the taliban begin to see the liklihood that they can't achieve their goals and are prepared to mollify their positions. From Helene Cooper of the NYT-

U.S. Wrestling With Olive Branch For Taliban-NYT Jan. 26,2010

There's speculation that some elements within the administration are more open than others. There's also concerns about the ability to achieve meaningful discussions absent some real leverage. Baradar would know if the taliban feel any ISAF leverage to open more fruitful discussions.

Thanks.

Its not that Pakistan doesn't want you to reconcile with the Taliban. It just wants to ensure that the new setup will not include India or will not be used by India to wage war with Pakistan.

If Biradar is such a key player to the reconciliation process, then all the negotiations would have to happen under Pakistani eyes and ears.

It could also be the other way round. If we knew we were being circumvented we went in for the kill and the jointness is being overplayed. As long the other non-reconciliatory Taliban know that Biradar has been "handled" they are less likely to listen to him.

Depends on how big a fish Biradar is.

 

[HAIDER]

According to some media report, this was a doubtful operation. This guy always in favor of talking peace in Afghanistan. Called it a good talibann. So, this operation was to take him in save place and used him to broke a peace deal in side Afghan land......its true or speculation..nobody knows.

 

[Awesome]

Now that Biradar's been captured, even if he doesn't turn Mullah Omar in, MO has to think and prepare for the possibility that he might. All suspected hideouts should be monitored for such activity, he might want to change homes.

The same goes for a lot of people he was in contact with. False information can be fed against any xyz person that he led to his arrest, making Taliban mistrust each other.

 

[Spring Onion]

Holbrooke commends Pakistan on Baradar’s arrest

KABUL: A top US envoy on Wednesday hailed the capture of the Taliban military commander Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, whose arrest could deal a heavy blow to the militia’s eight-year war in Afghanistan.

The US envoy is expected to arrive in Islamabad tomorrow for talks over regional security.

The arrest, confirmed by Pakistan, is the most important Taliban capture since the 2001 US-led invasion brought down the regime for sheltering Al-Qaeda after the September 11 attacks.

In Kabul, visiting US envoy Richard Holbrooke said Baradar “got caught” and welcomed the arrest as a “significant development” but gave no details.

Pakistan’s military confirmed Baradar had been arrested, but made no mention of US reports that he was captured “several days ago” in Karachi in a joint operation with US spies and was being interrogated.

“At the conclusion of detailed identification procedure, it has been confirmed that one of the persons arrested happens to be Mullah Baradar,” said military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas.

The Afghan-born Baradar is known as a powerful military chief and trusted aide to the Taliban’s one-eyed and elusive leader Mullah Mohammad Omar.

“There is very little I am going to say here on this subject but it is a significant development,” Holbrooke told reporters in Kabul.

“I am not going to join any speculation. I am not in a position to share, this is an intelligence matter but we commend the Pakistanis for their role in this and it is part of the deepening co-operation between us,” he said. —AFP

 

[S-2]

Asim,

"Its not that Pakistan doesn't want you to reconcile with the Taliban."

I'm not convinced that the American government is involved in any meaningful discussions or even wants to be at this point. I've left enough links and contravening quotes to make it clear that's very much up in the air.

"It just wants to ensure that the new setup will not include India or will not be used by India to wage war with Pakistan."

Afghanistan will be the final determinant with whom it maintains formal relations. As usual, Pakistan might very well have either lost sight of that or, more likely, be trying to marginalize such. That won't wash as the whole point of U.N./ISAF involvement is to ultimately raise forth an INDEPENDANT Afghanistan with control over its foreign policy.

This drives home once again the importance of the trust deficit that exists between the Afghan and Pakistani governments. Karzai, a pashtun, is president now (however much you and others hate him). What happens the day a tajik, hazara,turkomen, uzbek, or baloch is elected President?

The best assurance that Pakistan may have in mollifying Indian influence or amplifying its own lies in properly mobilizing the pashtun vote. Properly is key as Pakistan has no more right to meddle in Afghan affairs than Afghanistan does WRT Pakistani affairs. The best key to that is to suppress the taliban revolt sufficient to allow pashtuns the space to participate politically in Afghan politics. Simultaneously, it's my personal recommendation that Pakistan begin seriously mending fences with the tajik, uzbek, turkomen, hazara, and baloch communities in Afghanistan.

"If Biradar is such a key player to the reconciliation process, then all the negotiations would have to happen under Pakistani eyes and ears."

Assuming, that is, Baradar has a direct role in such. Were I him, regardless of personal desires one way or another, I'd likely be far removed from direct involvement only to avoid the taint that comes with such from every direction. There's a purpose in life for underlings. That is one of them.

"It could also be the other way round. If we knew we were being circumvented we went in for the kill and the jointness is being overplayed."

Pakistan's past involvement with the taliban is now crystalline. Minimally, there's no longer any doubt that their leadership is on your lands. Maximum, you've provided for such. Either is damning to all who've endured the pain caused by sanctuary. It's a REAL thing to the families of dead afghans and soldiers.

Pakistan's best hope is to be a GOOD FAITH partner in getting Afghanistan on its feet successfully and doing everything it can upfront and visibly so that all know it. As Zraver said here, the blowback from more disingenuity will be catastrophic because there's no hiding the past now. Something tells me that Kiyani is VERY, VERY smart and has factored that into this and-make no mistake, this has Kiyani's hand all over it.

"As long the other non-reconciliatory Taliban know that Biradar has been "handled" they are less likely to listen to him.

Depends on how big a fish Biradar is."

With all the speculation, let's assume the most obvious at this point and that seems to be also the simplest- negotiations aren't crap as the taliban are still run by Omar and Baradar. Baradar is a GOOD lieutenant and concurs with Omar's non-negotiating stance as well as prosecuting the fight as he believes they are WINNING and have no reason to negotiate a part of pie that he believe will fall en toto to the afghan taliban.

A (the) key operational commander has been removed.

NOW look at matters and consider all before you-while a whole bunch of nobodies are gabbing and going nowhere there's a war to be fought on both sides. Suddenly a Pakistani government that was cozy with the enemy has turned on them and taken THE MAN off the street. Ignoring all the other triple current speculation, that simple fact says sanctuary isn't so sanctified any longer.

Red teaming the war (that's what S-2s do and google if unfamiliar) means that the taliban must now account for the liklihood that their rear area has gone to sh!t overnight. You don't move on Baradar without realizing its a game-changer for all involved. The afghan taliban reaction is to immediately assume that P.A./ISI/FC/state police are no longer friendly/neutral but enemies. Taliban operations inside Pakistan go DEEP undercover and into a highly protective mode while they figure out their next move. If smart, they've long anticipated such a possibility, know where their cover lies, and have their contingency plans dusted off. Those plans may include opening new fronts in their rear (i.e. YOU) to test your resolve. Frankly, they've little choice if ol' S-2 is correct in his long-bandied assumption here that the afghan insurgency holds no traction without sanctuary.

It's either that or game over and cut the best deal with all concerned possible.

Thanks.

 

[manojb]

India is the only country on the face of the earth in the history who had used airforce against own citizens in Mezoram.

According to you South Waziristan does not belong to Pak. Ignorance is bliss!!

 

[waraich66]

Holbrooke commends Pakistan on Baradar’s arrest

KABUL: A top US envoy on Wednesday hailed the capture of the Taliban military commander Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, whose arrest could deal a heavy blow to the militia’s eight-year war in Afghanistan.

The US envoy is expected to arrive in Islamabad tomorrow for talks over regional security.

The arrest, confirmed by Pakistan, is the most important Taliban capture since the 2001 US-led invasion brought down the regime for sheltering Al-Qaeda after the September 11 attacks.

In Kabul, visiting US envoy Richard Holbrooke said Baradar “got caught” and welcomed the arrest as a “significant development” but gave no details.

Pakistan’s military confirmed Baradar had been arrested, but made no mention of US reports that he was captured “several days ago” in Karachi in a joint operation with US spies and was being interrogated.

“At the conclusion of detailed identification procedure, it has been confirmed that one of the persons arrested happens to be Mullah Baradar,” said military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas.

The Afghan-born Baradar is known as a powerful military chief and trusted aide to the Taliban’s one-eyed and elusive leader Mullah Mohammad Omar.

“There is very little I am going to say here on this subject but it is a significant development,” Holbrooke told reporters in Kabul.

“I am not going to join any speculation. I am not in a position to share, this is an intelligence matter but we commend the Pakistanis for their role in this and it is part of the deepening co-operation between us,” he said. —AFP

Afghan Jihad is organised by Shourah of 398(one member from 398 Distts of Afghanistan) members , MO or any other leader have not much importance , Shourah is decision making body not the leaders , ISAF should uptill now understand the organisation structure of Afghan Talaban.

Even Afghan Mujahdeen dont know who is shourah member also MO or cammanders doing operation in Afghanistan.

 

[asq]

I totally understand, may be it was necessary to downplay the news and let it remain low.

In this day and age down playing news is of no value as most people watch besides their own chanels those of other media giving them a neutral prospect.

So local chanels can hide all the want, it is prectice in vain.

 

[Vassnti]

Afghan Jihad is organised by Shourah of 398(one member from 398 Distts of Afghanistan) members , MO or any other leader have not much importance , Shourah is decision making body not the leaders , ISAF should uptill now understand the organisation structure of Afghan Talaban.

Even Afghan Mujahdeen dont know who is shourah member also MO or cammanders doing operation in Afghanistan.

Perhaps if you could clarify a few points.

If the afghan taliban dont know who they are how do they recive orders from them?

How do 398 men from different provinces meet with out some one noticing?

Have you ever tried to get 400 people to agree on some thing with out a strong leader present to direct the process, seriously getting 398 Afghan tribes with rivalries, fueds and differing loyalties to agree on some thing would be like herding cats.

 

[waraich66]

Perhaps if you could clarify a few points.

If the afghan taliban dont know who they are how do they recive orders from them?

How do 398 men from different provinces meet with out some one noticing?

Have you ever tried to get 400 people to agree on some thing with out a strong leader present to direct the process, seriously getting 398 Afghan tribes with rivalries, fueds and differing loyalties to agree on some thing would be like herding cats.

Each distt had a sub shourah (maximum 3 to 5) , they have to take decisions on basis of general guidelines of supreme shourah .

Selection of shourah member is based on very high standards much higher then the general cammanders having fighting experience .

Supreme shourah any time select new amir , no one can deny the supreme shourah decision.

 

[Uzair Zahir]

In my views this war has no end as we have an invincible enemy , an enemy that may be the guy sitting next to you in a local bus or trans atlantic flight !
We have to understand that by force no war can be won ! Becz after genrations there is a vomit of nature that makes the past happen again !
Its just the beggining to the End !

 

[waraich66]

In my views this war has no end as we have an invincible enemy , an enemy that may be the guy sitting next to you in a local bus or trans atlantic flight !
We have to understand that by force no war can be won ! Becz after genrations there is a vomit of nature that makes the past happen again !
Its just the beggining to the End !

No , US wanted to end war but they are not finding the exit route, Talaban wanted to keep them on thier soil to give them taste of invasion.

They are enjoying devine power support.

 

[Solomon2]

In my views this war has no end as we have an invincible enemy , an enemy that may be the guy sitting next to you in a local bus or trans atlantic flight !

A century ago the West suffered from the anarchist movement, which also believed in bombs and assassinations. The anarchists were defeated by good police work and Stalin murdered their remnant, judging them more liability than ally.

We have to understand that by force no war can be won ! Becz after genrations there is a vomit of nature that makes the past happen again !

"Yet it is not our part to master all the tides of this world, but to do what is in us for the succour of those years wherein we are set, uprooting the evil in the fields that we know, so that those who live after may have clean earth to till. What weather they shall have is not ours to rule.”
- [URL="http://books.google.com/books?id=wyak3_NWKZsC&lpg=PA161&ots=xE3APZ34z7&dq=Gandalf%20Aragorn%20Eomer%20time%20march%20%22empty%20his%20land%22&pg=PA160#v=onepage&q=Gandalf%20Aragorn%20Eomer%20time%20march%20%22empty%20his%20land%22&f=false]J.R.R. Tolkein[/URL]

 

[ramu]

A gr8 battle won, the war lies ahead. For now, well done Pakistan.