Taliban intel. intercepts - Is Pakistan winning its WoT?

[Always Neutral]

The Afghans tried separatism in the fifties and sixties on the basis of Pakhtunistan and the Durand being an 'unnatural line', never got any traction then either.

Now, with a foreign occupation of Afghanistan and a military campaign against the Taliban, the Afghans have even less of chance of converting a Taliban insurgency into a 'Pakhtun insurgency'.

The majority of the Pakhtun in Pakistan do not live in FATA or Swat, they live in the settled areas of the NWFP and across Pakistan, and they are progressive and moderate, which is why the Taliban remain so unpopular with them. They are increasingly under attack from the Taliban, who are disrupting their economy and way of life, bombing the cities and killing their kith and kin.

So without popular support and an Afghanistan under occupation, how do you expect the Taliban insurgency to make the Durand irrelevant for the Pakhtun and turn the war into one like Vietnam?

Many reasons

1. Very inhospitable Territory and prime for Insurgencies as more boots on the ground will be needed to hold the territory now captured which means more targets for bombing attacks etc which in turn after some years get the local population angry the GOP.

2. These areas were never intergated into Pakistan.

3. Tribal loyalties out weigh all other considerations.

4. Continued US presence.

5. PA is considered an extension of the US Army and staunch ally by the locals.

Regards

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Many reasons

1. Very inhospitable Territory and prime for Insurgencies as more boots on the ground will be needed to hold the territory now captured which means more targets for bombing attacks etc which in turn after some years get the local population angry the GOP.

2. These areas were never intergated into Pakistan.

3. Tribal loyalties out weigh all other considerations.

All of this applies to FATA, and not the majority of the NWFP, or even Swat.

The problems being faced in FATA have been acknowledged, and the PA and GoP are attempting to work within the restrictions they impose.

4. Continued US presence.

Not in Pakistan - the presence of the US in Afghanistan however makes the prospect of a separatist movement in favor of a Pakhtunistan attached to Afghanistan even less likely, since Afghanistan has little attraction for the Pakhtun right now, even the Pakhtun in Afghanistan.

5. PA is considered an extension of the US Army and staunch ally by the locals.

Regards

Again, that may still be true in FATA, but the sentiment has been turned on its head across Pakistan and the NWFP in the aftermath of the Swat Taliban expansion into Buner etc.

I do agree that support for continued use of military force will depend on how well the GoP is able to deal with the rehabilitation of the IDP's and reconstruction, but to extrapolate from that into a 'Pakhtunistan movement' that want's to merge with Afghanistan makes no sense.

All of the factors you pointed out exist in Afghanistan in greater magnitudes, accompanied with a failed and largely destroyed state.

What do you think of the chances of a Pakhtunistan movement arising in Afghanistan are, based on the factors you mentioned?

Maybe the Afghan Pakhtuns are tired of the protections (or lack of) afforded them by the state of Afghanistan.

 

[Always Neutral]

What do you think of the chances of a Pakhtunistan movement arising in Afghanistan are, based on the factors you mentioned?

Maybe the Afghan Pakhtuns are tired of the protections (or lack of) afforded them by the state of Afghanistan.

My idea of Pakhtuns has nothing to with them seperating themselves from Pakistan. Its more to do with the presence of the PA in the long run as never before was this done and people do not take change kindly. As long as the PA is there they are fair targets for TTP and after every attack the retaliation by the PA will follow. These are the only sparks required to have a Kurdish style insurgency now straddling Iran, Turkey and olden days Iraq.

Regards

 

[Ratus Ratus]

In the long run PA will now have to get involved in COIN operations which could last about 20 years, a mini Vietnam. The real cost will be known only after this operation comes to an end.

However, comparisons to Vietnam are inapt since Pakistan is not fighting a war in a foreign land.

Firstly the analogy of vietnam is possible and it does not require an outside nation to be present for this.
The logic can be based on bad national and regional governance and the fact there is in essence an insurgency in operation.
Now throw in poor to bad infrastructure compared to other areas, and in many ways disenfranchised populous.

Yes the PA and the GOP and NGOs will have to pull the digit out of the rear orifice and start looking at all the components of a COIN ops outside of military.
This is going to be a big task and has to be started now due to huge IDP problem. It will have a huge $value and cost in people..

What you have at present is to some extent been festering for some 60 years.

 

[Ratus Ratus]

My idea of Pakhtuns has nothing to with them seperating themselves from Pakistan. Its more to do with the presence of the PA in the long run as never before was this done and people do not take change kindly. As long as the PA is there they are fair targets for TTP and after every attack the retaliation by the PA will follow. These are the only sparks required to have a Kurdish style insurgency now straddling Iran, Turkey and olden days Iraq.

Regards

A lot is going to depend on how FATA is dealt with politically by GOP.
Also the Kurd problem is a result of sub grading the Kurds within Turkey, Iraq and Iran(?). So this can be avoided so long as real politics and nationalism takes hold. Provide a standard on par with the rest of Pakistan and you will not get this. Leave the area as is and it will occur.

 

[MilesTogo]

I think a lot depends on public opinion which is fast moving against Taliban and related sections of the Pakistani society.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Yes the PA and the GOP and NGOs will have to pull the digit out of the rear orifice and start looking at all the components of a COIN ops outside of military.

That is not being contested, and going by the public rhetoric at least it is not a point lost on either the civilian or military leadership. The Army has already rushed in engineering and medical teams into Mingora and some other large towns to start restoring infrastructure. Obviously a much broader and sustained effort needs to be employed.

How well the rhetoric translates into tangible action on the ground only time will tell.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

My idea of Pakhtuns has nothing to with them seperating themselves from Pakistan. Its more to do with the presence of the PA in the long run as never before was this done and people do not take change kindly. As long as the PA is there they are fair targets for TTP and after every attack the retaliation by the PA will follow. These are the only sparks required to have a Kurdish style insurgency now straddling Iran, Turkey and olden days Iraq.

Regards

I think the US experience in Afghanistan, and the sentiment of the Afghan Pakhtun, is a better template to judge the response of the locals to 'change' and how they react to prolonged military operations without tangible improvements in their lives.

 

[nabeel190]

i guess for sure pakistan is winning WoT and pak army really pushing them back in afghan territory but the progress of pakistan army is not very fast because i guess pakistan army is trained to fight arial war but on the other hand now pakistan is learning new strategy and stepping forward to tell the world that they r one of the best army in the world....
God Bless Pakistan's Armed Forces..

Long Live Pakistan...