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Taliban intel. intercepts - Is Pakistan winning its WoT?

"Could someone try to explain then what the various bombing in Afghanistan on civilians in markets and villages are all about then..."

I would presume he was referring to the Pakistan Army. Mullah Omar has been known to discourage his followers (and others) from attacking Pakistan and the Pakistan Army. Its not necessarily because 'we're Muslim' but because it would constitute a prudent strategic decision. And from the PoV of these Afghan rebels, there are non-Muslim Coalition forces in Afghanistan and not in Pakistan thus the violence there is justified and the resulting collateral damage (AKA civilian deaths) can be excused whereas in Pakistan there would be no purpose to this violence (i.e. expelling non-Muslim soldiers). All this I'm stating from their PoV ofcourse. Also, as much as I dislike them, the Afghanistan Taliban are not the only force in Afghanistan whose operations cause civilian deaths and who continue to operate despite such deaths. And if I have to choose, I'd say that the Pakistani Taliban are the more violent, brutal, mindless and crazy of the two with stronger links to Al-Qaeda. If the US/GoA is talking to Mullah Omar, doesn't mean we should talk to Mehsud too, no way. His kind deserves only one thing...and that is what comes out of the muzzle of a barrel.

The quote I initially provied comes from the atricle in the very first post of this thread:
"Where as the Real Taliban of Afghanistan and their command has strictly forbidden to Attack Muslims and ordered to concentrate against occupation forces in Afghanistan)"

This is what I question with respect to that comment and your answer does not excuse collateral damage of this nature.

guardian.co.uk, Sunday 28 December 2008
Suicide car bomb in Afghanistan kills 14 primary school children | World news | guardian.co.uk
A suicide car bomb in Afghanistan today killed 14 primary school children in what officials said was a failed attempt to blow up a meeting of tribal elders.

The blast, in the country's eastern Khost province, also killed an Afghan army soldier and a security guard, and injured 58, including at least 40 civilians, the US army said.

Video footage of the bombing, taken from a security camera, shows a group of children, apparently returning from school, walking alongside a road that had a checkpoint guarding a district centre. A dark-coloured 4x4 vehicle is seen *snaking through the barriers placed on the approach to the checkpoint, before detonating just as it drew level with the children.


In most cases of suicide bombings in Afghanistan the collateral damage is far greater than the damage to the US/ISAF/ANA/AP forces per incident.
SOme have been directly aimed at civilians so I would totally discount ant comment such as the one in the article about the so called "good" Afghan Taliban in Pakistan. The reality is as hinted, Mullah Omar will not do anything in Pakistan because it is providing him with a "protected" state.

As for:
"If the US/GoA is talking to Mullah Omar, doesn't mean we should talk to Mehsud too, no way"
The US/GoA are not talking to Mullar Omar as he will not talk till the US and ISAF leave Afghanistan. No one, US or the ISAF forces are leaving Afghanistan that I know of.
 
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Zubair.
Brother i have been waiting for the just revolution since the seventies. This nation is not ready to make sacrifices just like then. Everytime there is a problem, we ahve looked towards the East or West, for a sviour to come. i am firmly of the beleif that thew saviour will not come till such time that we realize that the onus lies on us to stand up and sort our own problems out.This in my view is not in our national build up and this is why we have failed as a nation and as a state. We talk about Punjabis, Pukhtoons, Baluchis, Sindhis and Mohajirs but never about pakistan, or Islam. We have no national or religious identity, pay lip service to islam and Allah but do not want to make the sacrifices in his way to attain his Nusrat.
Please do not equate this to the way ofthe taliban. Iam talking about ruling with justice and peace.I am talking about having a direction to move in as a nation. I am talking about not being two faced, and having a bit of self respect.
Truely speaking I dont see pakistan turning around during my life time.
WaSalam
Araz

Totally agree with you. But am trying to find hope in all this. We have always looked right & left and guess what have always found 'temporary solutions' which always came at a big cost. And changes & revolutions are never brought by majorities. Its always a small group who face trials & tribulations but stick to there beliefs and in the end deliver. ISLAM was all about 313 of BADAR. CASTRO started his campaign with less then 100. We are reaching that critical point where either we should choose to fade away or just reach out and grab whats ours. As ALLAMA IQBAL said:
DONT WAIT FOR MEHDI, CREATE HIM
 
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Ratus Ratus, I agree with most of what you said. But if you'd read my reply to you again you'd note that what I said about the way these Afghan Taliban are presumably regarding Pakistan as a secondary or milder ideological objective could explain a lot. I disagree with the contention that this is because the GoP and the Taliban are complicit in anyway. Furthermore I am aware that the GoA has been seeking negotiations with Mullah Omar for sometime; as to whether they will be fruitful or not is irrelevant to that. Thanks.
 
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Guys
Ther are news in the air that the ADPs are being prevented from moving out of NWFP. This could turn into another festering sore if not countered early. The resentment that being citizens of pakistan we are not allowed to move in our own country will be used by the taliban and other entitiesonce a few months elapse and people start feeling more desperate. It is ever so important thatthe IDPs should be provided for adequately and effectively.
WaSalam
Araz
 
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Guys
Ther are news in the air that the ADPs are being prevented from moving out of NWFP. This could turn into another festering sore if not countered early. The resentment that being citizens of pakistan we are not allowed to move in our own country will be used by the taliban and other entitiesonce a few months elapse and people start feeling more desperate. It is ever so important thatthe IDPs should be provided for adequately and effectively.
WaSalam
Araz

i thought this issue was sorted sometime back. CM punjab and sindh made clear statements that IDPs are allowed to go anywhere in the country. many IDPs have gone to karachi rawalpindi and lahore where they are livin with their families or in rented property.
 
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This war will end soon Insha-Allah.

Hats off to Pakistan Army and our intelligence agencies for sorting these guys out.
 
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i thought this issue was sorted sometime back. CM punjab and sindh made clear statements that IDPs are allowed to go anywhere in the country. many IDPs have gone to karachi rawalpindi and lahore where they are livin with their families or in rented property.

i am afraid ,Taliban can grab this opportunity to scatter all over Pakistan. soon you will see suicide bombings in Karachi since intelligence network around Lahore and Peshawar is very active.
 
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PESHAWAR: A voice crackled over the wireless last week. ‘How are you?’ the caller asked. ‘Is everything alright?’ It caught immediate attention.

For several days officers of the military’s signal corps have been straining their ears to track the voice that once dominated the airwaves in Swat. The voice was familiar and distinctive.

‘It was unquestionably that of Maulana Fazlullah,’ a military officer said. The intercept on May 27 was the last that the military heard from the Taliban chief in Swat.

Since May 8 when the military launched Operation Rah-i-Rast, the militant leader has been careful not to come on the radio to avoid detection.

As part of its strategy, the military has shut down all cellular and landline communications in Swat to force the militants to come and speak out on hand-held waltie-talkie.

And the intercepts, the military says, offer a glimpse into the dwindling fortune of the man :lol: , from being in total control of the scenic valley to somebody trying to shore up the sagging morale of his fighters.

The Taliban leader went ahead with his message for his fighters when his call did not elicit any response from the other side.

‘Don’t lose morale,’ Fazlullah said. ‘Go into the trees and take the sniper rifles with you. Take aim and fire. You should be able to kill at least one or two.’

The exchange was part of a series of conversation among militants in Swat that the military has recorded since the beginning of its offensive.

But the intercept has offered few clues, if any, to the whereabouts of the wanted militant leadership in Swat.

Security and military officials believe that MFU — the acronym for Maulana Fazlullah — and his council are no longer in their hideout of Peochar in the upper reaches of Swat after three battalions of the Special Services Group parachuted into the thickly forested 8,000 to 10,000 feet high mountain range.

Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, Swat, spokesman Muslim Khan is believed to have moved into adjoining Lower Dir from where he is able to call media outlets through his cellphone. A strike on his suspected hideout last week missed the target.

There is disagreement within the security establishment over possible hideouts of MFU and his close lieutenants, including Shah Dauran.

Some officials insist that the Swat TTP leadership is either hiding in the valley or somewhere along its boundary with Lower Dir and Buner.

‘My gut feeling is that they are still there, trying to get out,’ a military officer said.

But another officer said the Swat leadership might already have sneaked out and reached South Waziristan.

‘It is hard to detect the actual location of the transmission,’ the official said. The militants, he said, had devised a system to relay messages through a network of phones and wireless communication to avoid detection.

The government last week announced a reward for information leading to Fazlullah’s arrest.

Miffed that the provincial government offered a measly Rs5 million reward for MFU, the federal government on the military’s prodding increased it to Rs50 million, indicating the significance the government attaches to his capture.

Government officials acknowledge that taking out or capturing the TTP leadership in Swat is important on two counts — it will restore public confidence and credibility and, more importantly, prevent Swat from relapsing into militancy.

‘We know how important it is to kill or capture the leadership,’ the officer acknowledged.

But failure of the security apparatus to kill or capture the TTP leadership in Swat also highlights the serious handicap and lack of capability it faces in tracking them down.

‘We need tools to do it (the operation) more quickly and more efficiently and make it less bloody. We need technical intelligence tools. Without this, we can still do it ourselves, but it is going to be long and bloodier,’ the official said.

Without technical and electronic intelligence tools, said one security official, it was like finding a needle in a haystack. ‘It’s hard and painstaking,’ he remarked.

The intercepts make it abundantly clear. They give out few clues. Adept at keeping cover, the militants have adopted noms de guerre.

Even the names of the areas they operate in have been changed to those that existed in the days of the Holy Prophet (PBUH) or the Arabian battles to confuse the military ear.

‘The deviants (a name given to the military by the militants) have discovered our frequencies. You need to keep changing the frequency. Use the special frequency if you have anything important to say,’ a militant commander was heard saying in one of the intercepts.

The battle, however, continues not just on the field but also on the airwaves.

Shah Dauran, the fiery cleric known for spitting venom against the government and security forces on his FM radio, is out of service, but small-time clerics keep popping up on low-band frequency to preach Jihad, only to get jammed minutes later.

A successful air blitz knocked out the militants’ communication network. That, the official said, had had an impact on the militants’ morale. ‘They are in disarray,’ the official said.

‘The guests who had come to us for Jihad have escaped,’ lamented a caller in one of the intercepts. ‘Tell all your comrades to set up checkpoints and arrest them.’ :D :tup:

In one surprising piece of chatter in recent weeks, a voice passes down an order that appeared calculated to confuse the military: ‘Abu Ameer (a reference to MFU) has given the order that Mingora should henceforth be referred to as Buner.’

Significantly, as the Taliban lose control over the valley, the local population also seems to have switched sides.

A man who called himself Jawad fumed on May 27 that villagers were raising white flags on their houses. ‘Why are these gutless people holding white flags?’ he said.

Another man responded: ‘Everyone has his own will. How can we stop them?’

‘In the public meeting by Maulana Sufi Mohammad, the whole lot of the population had pledged to stand by us,’ Jawad said. ‘Tell them if they are scared they should leave but no one should raise a white flag,’ he said.

But with the Swat TTP leadership at large and most of its fighting cadre either gone into hiding or melted away along with the millions of displaced people, government officials warn that the fighting against militancy is by no means over.

‘They are all over the place and we have picked up so many of them that we are running out of space,’ the official said.
 
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i wish for a link & source please buddy....thanx


shut down all cellular and landline communications in Swat to force the militants to come and speak out on hand-held waltie-talkie.

why can't they trace CELL PHONES easily??? i thought cellphone tracing was much easier!!
 
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Long Live Pakistan Army

After Allah we owe our existence to you
 
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Without technical and electronic intelligence tools, said one security official, it was like finding a needle in a haystack. ‘It’s hard and painstaking,’ he remarked.

We have been asking for those tool for years now, and the US has continued to refuse, and then their Congress. media and 'analysts' bi*ch about why we need F-16's for COIN, when needed equipment like the above is not provided either.
 
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Would you seriously want to go down the US route on this?

The image of Pakistan as portayed by India and its US ally may be poor, but establishing a Guantanamo would be the icing on the image cake if you want to cause a revolution in Pakistan.

Torture doesn't achieve anything. I'm a firm believer in it. If you believe it achieves something, I'll get you to confess to being Jack the Ripper and that you were Polish in less than 15 seconds, should you visit my waterboard setup.

As for Muslim Khan's quote, while it is abhorrent at first glance, the quote I read was this..

"Strikes should be carried out on their homes so their kids get killed and then they'll realise," Khan said on the tape which was broadcast on media."

This suggests the whole fiasco is in danger of spiralling out of control. It's all part of the redrawing of the borders in South West Asia. Pakistan (and Pakistanis) will need to wisen up, if they want to keep an intact country. That is the bare, scrubbed truth.

You have a guy saying "then they (soldiers, government), will realize". At base, he's saying, don't attack me, kill my people, else I will kill yours. From a psychological point of view, it's understandable, perhaps even a logical response. He sees it that the bombing is not necessary, yet he's being bombed to obtain more dollars from the US (his perception). That is his position, and none of us know whether it's true. His response, if true, is understandable in this situation.

The bombing will fail. The militants will return, just as they returned after the previous Swat campaign. The main hope is Afghanistan returns to normality soon, and Pakistan needs to ally itself very quickly with the Chinese.

Very True. The victory of PA was never in doubt, what needs to be seen at what cost it will be achieved. The mass displacement of the residents will soon turn to anger if their destroyed properties are not repaired fast. In the long run PA will now have to get involved in COIN operations which could last about 20 years, a mini Vietnam. The real cost will be known only after this operation comes to an end.

Regards
 
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In the long run PA will now have to get involved in COIN operations which could last about 20 years, a mini Vietnam.
The insurgency could last that long, or more, though the intensity of the insurgency could decrease.

However, comparisons to Vietnam are inapt since Pakistan is not fighting a war in a foreign land.
 
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The insurgency could last that long, or more, though the intensity of the insurgency could decrease.

However, comparisons to Vietnam are inapt since Pakistan is not fighting a war in a foreign land.

It will become sooner than later as the Durand Line is an illfated line and that is the only reason the PA never enforced it and supported the Taliban as long as they did not declare independence or Paktoonistan.

Regards
 
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It will become sooner than later as the Durand Line is an illfated line and that is the only reason the PA never enforced it and supported the Taliban as long as they did not declare independence or Paktoonistan.

Regards

The Afghans tried separatism in the fifties and sixties on the basis of Pakhtunistan and the Durand being an 'unnatural line', never got any traction then either.

Now, with a foreign occupation of Afghanistan and a military campaign against the Taliban, the Afghans have even less of chance of converting a Taliban insurgency into a 'Pakhtun insurgency'.

The majority of the Pakhtun in Pakistan do not live in FATA or Swat, they live in the settled areas of the NWFP and across Pakistan, and they are progressive and moderate, which is why the Taliban remain so unpopular with them. They are increasingly under attack from the Taliban, who are disrupting their economy and way of life, bombing the cities and killing their kith and kin.

So without popular support and an Afghanistan under occupation, how do you expect the Taliban insurgency to make the Durand irrelevant for the Pakhtun and turn the war into one like Vietnam?
 
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