Taiwanese Official: F-16 Buy From U.S. 'Hopeless'

[CardSharp]

Austin is a "liberal Island in a Republican Sea". Also we are relatively close to the center of action, being the capital of Texas and all. We've had several anti-Perry protests just a few weeks before.

Just the way you phrased it confused me, but you cannot seriously want Palin to be president. I'd take perry over palin.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Just the way you phrased it confused me, but you cannot seriously want Palin to be president. I'd take perry over palin.

You don't know Perry well enough...

 

[CardSharp]

You don't know Perry well enough...

Kind of hard to top Palin in a crazy competition.

 

[akinkhoo]

I just like to say 2 words: RON PAUL...




*RUN*

 

[gambit]

mmm...very interesting...

Also another question, regarding Taiwan - why has the US Gov. refused F-16s to the island? I mean the Taiwanese have not done anything bad or participated in any anti-American activities unlike Iran or Pakistan.

Is China already that influential? I mean, I always thought of Taiwan defending itself from a Chinese invasion alone as really far-fetched. I think the only way to deter China is with a nuclear armed ROC, coupled with other strategic weapon systems, in perspective of ROC's sovereignty. I have met a lot of Taiwanese who hate Communism and assert the fact that they are a sovereign nation. Would the US interfere in case of a Chinese invasion of ROC anytime soon?

Any time there is an obviously rising power, its influences naturally increases. As for Taiwan, the ROCAF is already flying 150(?) F-16A/B, I suspect refusal of sales of the newer models has more to do with technology than with politics.

Would the US enter a shooting fight between the two Chinas? That is a loaded question. Despite what the Chinese members here would like to believe, the PRC today does not have the capability to conquer Taiwan without suffering both military and political catastrophes. Could the PRC do it in the future where Taiwan could be conquered and leave the PRC with sufficient remaining military power and political clout in the international community to resist any repercussions? Possibly, but does that mean a corresponding decrease in American military and political influences? Not inevitable. The PRC must provide for that as well in the calculus to conquer Taiwan. When you undertake a military adventure, even a cursory reading of history will reveal that powers do take the ability to withstand the consequences as part of their preparations for that adventure. Whether they were mistaken or correct in that estimation is a different issue regarding political acumen and intelligence of the oppositions, but it is important enough nonetheless.

 

[PERSIAN GOD KING]

Even if they did get the f-16..so what?? they gonna take over china with them?

 

[below_freezing]

Even if they did get the f-16..so what?? they gonna take over china with them?

Some extremists think so.

Some Taiwanese far right are incredibly crazy. They think that their 30 year old F-16s can take out 4 J-20s with 1 missile: They'll shoot 1 down with the missile, on its way down it'll crash into another, and then both will crash into 2 other J-20s on the runway.



One of their experts even talked about using "magnetic powder" in the air to detect the J-20.



I read Taiwanese news all the time. Individually they're pretty sane but their media reads like North Korea's.

 

[PERSIAN GOD KING]

Some extremists think so.

Some Taiwanese far right are incredibly crazy. They think that their 30 year old F-16s can take out 4 J-20s with 1 missile: They'll shoot 1 down with the missile, on its way down it'll crash into another, and then both will crash into 2 other J-20s on the runway.



One of their experts even talked about using "magnetic powder" in the air to detect the J-20.



I read Taiwanese news all the time. Individually they're pretty sane but their media reads like North Korea's.

hahahahah let them waste their money, when the usa falls they will be coming to china for food.and say sorry

 

[akinkhoo]

Despite what the Chinese members here would like to believe, the PRC today does not have the capability to conquer Taiwan without suffering both military and political catastrophes.

I do not think most chinese member here think there will be nothing to suffer for this, but that they are willing to pay that price. that is quite a different story. but you are right that it is in China's favour to waiting them out as the odd would get better with time.

beside a US intervention which I noted you wisely evaded would also have a price to pay since the PLA would have the legal argument to cripple any the runway USAF used to attack PLA from, this make it unlikely for Japan or South Korea to sign the authorization for the use of forces based in their country which as per treaty they have the right to withhold, which mean only US territory and USN asset are in play.

the primary threat China applies to Taiwan is not PLA, but ROCA professional soldier of questionable loyalty. if China cook a story of rebellion in the land and proceed to support it with the PLA, it would be a very different story. Singapore which has the only foreign garrison in Taiwan knows this very clearly, Taiwan's problem is not missiles by trojan horses. once Taiwan conscription fade out, the ROCA question would become bigger, one of the reason US had resisted giving too advanced a tech to Taiwan is the fear that ROCA will use it against their interest instead!

 

[gambit]

I do not think most chinese member here think there will be nothing to suffer for this, but that they are willing to pay that price. that is quite a different story.

Of course they would say that. They have NOTHING to lose. They are either conscript rejects in China or living in Canada. Not one have any military experience so they do not know what/how soldiers talk among themselves about the prospects of going to war or losing one's life. Not one know any real danger other than crossing the streets in the next day, quite different from knowing that one may be sucked into a jet engine intake, die from an accidental weapons discharge, run over by a tank in an exercise, and so on. And this is in peace time. Is there any wonder why they would be so cavalier about other's lives?

but you are right that it is in China's favour to waiting them out as the odd would get better with time.

Nowhere did I say so. I said 'Possibly'.

...beside a US intervention which I noted you wisely evaded would also have a price to pay since the PLA would have the legal argument to cripple any the runway USAF used to attack PLA from, this make it unlikely for Japan or South Korea to sign the authorization for the use of forces based in their country which as per treaty they have the right to withhold, which mean only US territory and USN asset are in play.

We do not need South Korea and Japan.

Over Yugoslavia, B-2 missions were flown from CONUS and back. We know the most likely the bases from which the PLAAF could deploy. We no longer need 'mass' to create the effects of mass, the kind that everyone expect since these effects are what they know from WW II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War. Try to imagine how the Serbs felt when after the B-2 passed and so few explosions heard, they found out they could not launch a single aircraft for hours or even days. Now try to imagine how PLAAF personnel would feel.

the primary threat China applies to Taiwan is not PLA, but ROCA professional soldier of questionable loyalty. if China cook a story of rebellion in the land and proceed to support it with the PLA, it would be a very different story. Singapore which has the only foreign garrison in Taiwan knows this very clearly, Taiwan's problem is not missiles by trojan horses. once Taiwan conscription fade out, the ROCA question would become bigger, one of the reason US had resisted giving too advanced a tech to Taiwan is the fear that ROCA will use it against their interest instead!

Not getting into that. That is like saying the greatest to South Korea is the South Korean military itself. As someone who has experience with the ROKAF and the ROK Marines, I know better about the South Koreans and how they feel about their side of the Korean peninsula.

 

[below_freezing]

Of course they would say that. They have NOTHING to lose. They are either conscript rejects in China or living in Canada. Not one have any military experience so they do not know what/how soldiers talk among themselves about the prospects of going to war or losing one's life. Not one know any real danger other than crossing the streets in the next day, quite different from knowing that one may be sucked into a jet engine intake, die from an accidental weapons discharge, run over by a tank in an exercise, and so on. And this is in peace time. Is there any wonder why they would be so cavalier about other's lives?


Nowhere did I say so. I said 'Possibly'.


We do not need South Korea and Japan.

Over Yugoslavia, B-2 missions were flown from CONUS and back. We know the most likely the bases from which the PLAAF could deploy. We no longer need 'mass' to create the effects of mass, the kind that everyone expect since these effects are what they know from WW II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War. Try to imagine how the Serbs felt when after the B-2 passed and so few explosions heard, they found out they could not launch a single aircraft for hours or even days. Now try to imagine how PLAAF personnel would feel.


Not getting into that. That is like saying the greatest to South Korea is the South Korean military itself. As someone who has experience with the ROKAF and the ROK Marines, I know better about the South Koreans and how they feel about their side of the Korean peninsula.

they are conscripts in a US controlled military. They would be shot or imprisoned if they dared say anything else. 1980 Gwangju remember?

Look up the song ******* USA, there's videos everywhere. Great Korean song!

 

[gambit]

they are conscripts in a US controlled military. They would be shot or imprisoned if they dared say anything else. 1980 Gwangju remember?

Look up the song ******* USA, there's videos everywhere. Great Korean song!

Buddy...Even the more knowledgeable people than you over at your playground conceded that the PLAAF cannot defeat the ROCAF in a pure air force versus air force fight, and here you are trying to downplay the ROKAF, a peer air force of the ROCAF and one who was invited to Red Flag. The PLAAF got anything like Red Flag other than the cloth version of the words? In a straight air force versus air force fight, the ROKAF will give the PLAAF black eyes, a broken nose, and loose teeth. And that will be just on the first day...

 

[Secur]

^^^ If that makes you feel better lol Taiwan not more than 2 days deal if China decides to invade it ... and i think they will be in much better shape than Coalition forces in Afghanistan

Try to imagine how the Serbs felt when after the B-2 passed and so few explosions heard, they found out they could not launch a single aircraft for hours or even days. Now try to imagine how PLAAF personnel would feel

How and why do people assume that the other side wont be able to retaliate ? I think Americans are kinda over confident after their misadventures in Afghanistan and Iraq ... Complete fiasco weren't they ? You were able to destroy the regime but they had no such thing as airforce or navy

the ROKAF will give the PLAAF black eyes, a broken nose, and loose teeth. And that will be just on the first day...

31 die in downed helicopter; worse loss of life in Afghanistan since war began Just like that ? ROFL who were they some people from the stone age lol

Not one have any military experience so they do not know what/how soldiers talk among themselves about the prospects of going to war or losing one's life. Not one know any real danger other than crossing the streets in the next day, quite different from knowing that one may be sucked into a jet engine intake, die from an accidental weapons discharge, run over by a tank in an exercise, and so on. And this is in peace time. Is there any wonder why they would be so cavalier about other's lives?

Oh is that the reason for the ultra high suicide rates in Afghanistan ? lol I dont think the mentality of a hired US mercenary who's there for the benefits and not for defending his country ( against whom ? roflol ) applies to other forces too

Could the PRC do it in the future where Taiwan could be conquered and leave the PRC with sufficient remaining military power and political clout in the international community to resist any repercussions? Possibly, but does that mean a corresponding decrease in American military and political influences? Not inevitable

coming from a country which owes China billions in debt ? lol Its the Americans who need to worry at the moment ... Your friends at Knesset got you in bad shape ... The PLA's already deploying AA/AD tactics in the Taiwan strait ... maybe you wont even be able to come there in the future LOL

We do not need South Korea and Japan.

How do you plan on fighting China without them ? lol there ai'nt no marines coming from the mainland USA You have to use their bases to gain an advantage otherwise the wars already lost without being fought and i think i will leave your economic situation out of this

 

[CardSharp]

Even the more knowledgeable people than you over at your playground conceded that the PLAAF cannot defeat the ROCAF in a pure air force versus air force fight

Who? Besides most people would agree the RAND corporation is a helluva a lot more knowledgeable than some jumped up AF corporal bashing away at the interwebz.

RAND study: Now China wins Taiwan Straits air war - The DEW Line

 

[CardSharp]

The relationship between China and Taiwan is more stable in 2009 than it has been in years, but China has nonetheless not renounced its “right” to use force to forestall Taiwan's “independence”. At the same time, the cross-strait military balance is shifting in ways that are problematic for Taiwan's defense: The growing size and quality of China's missile arsenal, along with other advances in Chinese military capabilities, call into question the United States' and Taiwan's ability to defend the island against a large-scale Chinese attack. In this volume, the authors employ a mix of theater-level combat modeling, simpler mathematical models, historical analysis, interviews with experts, and qualitative judgment to evaluate both the China-Taiwan political dynamic and the cross-strait military balance. Shlapak et al. conclude with a discussion of how Taiwan might be successfully defended against a Chinese invasion attempt.



http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG888.html