kaykay
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President Obama approved a plan to sell arms to Taiwan recently. As usual, the news drew angry reactions from the Chinese Communist Partys (CCPs) media and protests from the Foreign Affairs Ministry. That was all. The tone of the reaction by the Chinese regimes media is slightly lower than in the past. It seems that President Obama and the CCP have both made some compromises that seem to have satisfied the CCP. The U.S. Congress and Taiwan sounded slightly dissatisfied, but they did not express themselves strongly.
However, the arms sales still attracted a lot of attention. Many media observers smelled a possible war in the Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea. There are two main factors causing tension. One is the rapid but non-transparent growth of China's military power; the other is the constant clamoring for war from the CCP's military, who say they can take over Taiwan in three days.
In Taiwan, many years of anti-communist propaganda made most people clearly see the ugly face of the Communist Party.
There is an idea in Taiwan and overseas that the CCP dares not attack Taiwan. As Taiwan has modern weapons and the support from United States and Japan, the CCP's attacking Taiwan would be no different than committing suicide, it is thought.
This idea seems to be too optimistic and too simple. In reality, the possibility of U.S. intervention is not high, let alone that of Japan. Neither the United States nor Japan wants to be involved in a possible nuclear war with the CCP.
Furthermore, the multinational corporations also don't want to lose their interests in China. Even if war broke out, the United States and Japan would hesitate and then miss the opportunity to defend Taiwan. That's why the CCP emphasizes the time frame of three days. Once Taiwan is occupied, the chances of the United States and Japan helping to liberate it are almost zero.
Reasons for War
Some people think the CCP is busy with its domestic problems and doesnt have the energy to attack Taiwan. There is something to this. However, we shouldn't ignore the fact that the CCP leaders have used wars to strengthen their power. It is likely a war would be used to stop civil strife in China.
Mao Zedong got involved in the Korean War with America, the most powerful country in the world, after he took power. After the Great Famine, he fought with India. When he was in trouble during the Cultural Revolution, he had a war with the Soviet Union. Deng Xiaoping fought with Vietnam after he came to power.
Deng ordered the Vietnam War without enough justification. After the war, Deng chose to give up some territory. People then realized that it was only used for Deng to establish his personal authority.
The CCP got involved in these wars only for some internal reasons, never for defending territory. Thus, it is always wrong to use the existence of an external crisis to judge whether the CCP would initiate a war. The external crisis at most provides a reason or an excuse.
All of these examples show that the CCP initiates wars purely for internal political reasons and not for external invasion or territorial disputes.
Unwilling to Accept the CCP
Why hasn't CCP initiated a war with Taiwan since it claims that it would win within three days? After all, the angry youth have been impatient for a long time. I think the main obstacle is not Taiwan's weapons and foreign alliances, but the people of democratic Taiwan.
The Taiwanese people haven't been brainwashed by the CCP and have not been accustomed to being suppressed without saying a word. Surveys show that the majority of Taiwanese are unwilling to be unified with the CCP and accept the CCP's autocratic rule. This is the biggest obstacle to the CCP.
Why can't the CCP rule the 20 million people in Taiwan while it could rule many more people in the mainland when it took over the country? The situations are different. In 1949, the CCP took over the country by deceiving people and they didn't resist in time. After the CCP had planted both feet on the ground, the Chinese people were severely brainwashed and the resistance in their minds started collapsing. The Chinese were gradually trained to be slaves just as frogs can be boiled by slowly turning up the heat. They just started waking up in recent years and opposing the CCP more and more intensively.
In Hong Kong there wasn't any resistance to imposing one country, two systems. But Hong Kong had a colonial culture in which people were more accustomed to being discriminated against. In addition, the leftist forces cultivated by the CCP were very strong. The British didn't do much to help cultivate a democratic culture and they certainly werent interested in doing so. Therefore, the peaceful evolution of the CCPs control in Hong Kong using the slowly boiled-frog strategy has been relatively successful.
Ugly Face of the CCP
In Taiwan, many years of anti-communist propaganda made most people clearly see the ugly face of the Communist Party. Although President Ma is very close to the CCP, he can't convince Taiwanese people to accept the CCP's authoritarian rule. Especially with Taiwan's democratic system, people will be increasingly unwilling to accept authoritarian rule. The CCP is not facing brain-washed sheep this time. Instead, it is facing 20 million disobedient wolves, which is the biggest concern of the CCP.
Someone in the CCP may have had the idea of using Ma Ying-jeous prestige and relationships in Taiwan to gain time to subdue Taiwan, but if so, this idea cant work.
People support President Ma because he was elected in the democratic system. Not many people would blindly support him no matter what he does. If they experienced the oppression of the CCP, the vast majority of people would probably change their idea towards the President who betrayed them, and President Ma would be useless.
I hope the think tanks of the CCP can see the difference. Otherwise, taking over Taiwan would be a disaster to both the people of Taiwan and the CCP.
Currently, both President Ma and the candidates of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) regard pleasing the CCP as the way to provide Taiwan security. They don't think highly of the Taiwanese people and lack self-confidence in Taiwan's democracy. They are very wrong. If these politicians led the Taiwanese people to believe in the illusion of the CCP or to become spineless, Taiwan would really lose its strongest fort.
Forts are most likely to be taken from within. The politicians in Taiwan cannot recognize the real advantages of Taiwan, but instead put their hope on someone else. They are like the annoying children who are always dependent on adults. Most Americans look down on them and want to get rid of this disappointing burden. When the child turns to seek protection from the beast at the door, his life is soon about to end.
Leading Chinese dissident Wei Jingsheng was sentenced to 18 years in the regimes prisons for his pro-democracy activities. He is best known for his essay The Fifth Modernization, which was first published as a wall poster in 1978 in Beijing and called for democracy. Among numerous human rights awards, he received the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought in 1996. He now lives in exile in the United States.
Taiwan
However, the arms sales still attracted a lot of attention. Many media observers smelled a possible war in the Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea. There are two main factors causing tension. One is the rapid but non-transparent growth of China's military power; the other is the constant clamoring for war from the CCP's military, who say they can take over Taiwan in three days.
In Taiwan, many years of anti-communist propaganda made most people clearly see the ugly face of the Communist Party.
There is an idea in Taiwan and overseas that the CCP dares not attack Taiwan. As Taiwan has modern weapons and the support from United States and Japan, the CCP's attacking Taiwan would be no different than committing suicide, it is thought.
This idea seems to be too optimistic and too simple. In reality, the possibility of U.S. intervention is not high, let alone that of Japan. Neither the United States nor Japan wants to be involved in a possible nuclear war with the CCP.
Furthermore, the multinational corporations also don't want to lose their interests in China. Even if war broke out, the United States and Japan would hesitate and then miss the opportunity to defend Taiwan. That's why the CCP emphasizes the time frame of three days. Once Taiwan is occupied, the chances of the United States and Japan helping to liberate it are almost zero.
Reasons for War
Some people think the CCP is busy with its domestic problems and doesnt have the energy to attack Taiwan. There is something to this. However, we shouldn't ignore the fact that the CCP leaders have used wars to strengthen their power. It is likely a war would be used to stop civil strife in China.
Mao Zedong got involved in the Korean War with America, the most powerful country in the world, after he took power. After the Great Famine, he fought with India. When he was in trouble during the Cultural Revolution, he had a war with the Soviet Union. Deng Xiaoping fought with Vietnam after he came to power.
Deng ordered the Vietnam War without enough justification. After the war, Deng chose to give up some territory. People then realized that it was only used for Deng to establish his personal authority.
The CCP got involved in these wars only for some internal reasons, never for defending territory. Thus, it is always wrong to use the existence of an external crisis to judge whether the CCP would initiate a war. The external crisis at most provides a reason or an excuse.
All of these examples show that the CCP initiates wars purely for internal political reasons and not for external invasion or territorial disputes.
Unwilling to Accept the CCP
Why hasn't CCP initiated a war with Taiwan since it claims that it would win within three days? After all, the angry youth have been impatient for a long time. I think the main obstacle is not Taiwan's weapons and foreign alliances, but the people of democratic Taiwan.
The Taiwanese people haven't been brainwashed by the CCP and have not been accustomed to being suppressed without saying a word. Surveys show that the majority of Taiwanese are unwilling to be unified with the CCP and accept the CCP's autocratic rule. This is the biggest obstacle to the CCP.
Why can't the CCP rule the 20 million people in Taiwan while it could rule many more people in the mainland when it took over the country? The situations are different. In 1949, the CCP took over the country by deceiving people and they didn't resist in time. After the CCP had planted both feet on the ground, the Chinese people were severely brainwashed and the resistance in their minds started collapsing. The Chinese were gradually trained to be slaves just as frogs can be boiled by slowly turning up the heat. They just started waking up in recent years and opposing the CCP more and more intensively.
In Hong Kong there wasn't any resistance to imposing one country, two systems. But Hong Kong had a colonial culture in which people were more accustomed to being discriminated against. In addition, the leftist forces cultivated by the CCP were very strong. The British didn't do much to help cultivate a democratic culture and they certainly werent interested in doing so. Therefore, the peaceful evolution of the CCPs control in Hong Kong using the slowly boiled-frog strategy has been relatively successful.
Ugly Face of the CCP
In Taiwan, many years of anti-communist propaganda made most people clearly see the ugly face of the Communist Party. Although President Ma is very close to the CCP, he can't convince Taiwanese people to accept the CCP's authoritarian rule. Especially with Taiwan's democratic system, people will be increasingly unwilling to accept authoritarian rule. The CCP is not facing brain-washed sheep this time. Instead, it is facing 20 million disobedient wolves, which is the biggest concern of the CCP.
Someone in the CCP may have had the idea of using Ma Ying-jeous prestige and relationships in Taiwan to gain time to subdue Taiwan, but if so, this idea cant work.
People support President Ma because he was elected in the democratic system. Not many people would blindly support him no matter what he does. If they experienced the oppression of the CCP, the vast majority of people would probably change their idea towards the President who betrayed them, and President Ma would be useless.
I hope the think tanks of the CCP can see the difference. Otherwise, taking over Taiwan would be a disaster to both the people of Taiwan and the CCP.
Currently, both President Ma and the candidates of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) regard pleasing the CCP as the way to provide Taiwan security. They don't think highly of the Taiwanese people and lack self-confidence in Taiwan's democracy. They are very wrong. If these politicians led the Taiwanese people to believe in the illusion of the CCP or to become spineless, Taiwan would really lose its strongest fort.
Forts are most likely to be taken from within. The politicians in Taiwan cannot recognize the real advantages of Taiwan, but instead put their hope on someone else. They are like the annoying children who are always dependent on adults. Most Americans look down on them and want to get rid of this disappointing burden. When the child turns to seek protection from the beast at the door, his life is soon about to end.
Leading Chinese dissident Wei Jingsheng was sentenced to 18 years in the regimes prisons for his pro-democracy activities. He is best known for his essay The Fifth Modernization, which was first published as a wall poster in 1978 in Beijing and called for democracy. Among numerous human rights awards, he received the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought in 1996. He now lives in exile in the United States.
Taiwan
