US Congress War Game on Taiwan, US failed to stop China, 80,000 People's Liberation Army landed in Taiwan, U.S. military sank 80 land ships

[大汉奸柳传志]

Because the US is waiting for a political reason to put the bulk of the PLAN at the bottom of the sea in a matter of days; Thucydides Trap. Even if at a cost, curbing Chinese power will mitigate the risk of China challenging the U.S. led world order.

I’m sure the PLA doesn’t think it’s stupid to realize they aren’t quite at parity with the US. Perhaps by 2049, but not in the next decade at least, perhaps by 2035 to some extent, but even then there maybe limitations. For example, even at 2-3 Type 095s a year, it will take to 2049 to have enough modern subs to match the USN and its allies.

The PLA needs to catch up technologically across the board, which it is nearly there, and build up enough numbers to deter western intervention.

US military is hard to be taken seriously nowadays since it chose not to fire a single bullet directly at the Russians and can only watch/provide weapons at a safe distance, China is more than happy to give such a coward military 'the beating of its lifetime'

 

[FuturePAF]

US military is hard to be taken seriously nowadays since it chose not to fire a single bullet directly at the Russians and can only watch/provide weapons at a safe distance, China is more than happy to give such a coward military 'the beating of its lifetime'

Sure, but look at Russia. It knows where Ukraine is getting its supplies; NATO. But, you don’t see Russia attacking NATO, because it knows the ramifications.

Equally, China knows who is supplying Taiwan, and may even take the damage of cruise missiles launched from the safety of hidden submarines. If China focuses on Taiwan and prevails in achieving secure beachheads, then the futility of aiding Taiwan will become apparent, and Taiwan will be allowed to fall.

If China strikes back at non-Taiwanese forces, then Taiwan’s Allie’s won’t stop until China is pushed off Taiwan.

Also remember the sanctions against Russia ramped up as the war dragged on and it looked like Russia wouldn’t win easily.

 

[Communism]

Sure, but look at Russia. It knows where Ukraine is getting its supplies; NATO. But, you don’t see Russia attacking NATO, because it knows the ramifications.

Equally, China knows who is supplying Taiwan, and may even take the damage of cruise missiles launched from the safety of hidden submarines. If China focuses on Taiwan and prevails in achieving secure beachheads, then the futility of aiding Taiwan will become apparent, and Taiwan will be allowed to fall.

If China strikes back at non-Taiwanese forces, then Taiwan’s Allie’s won’t stop until China is pushed off Taiwan.

Also remember the sanctions against Russia ramped up as the war dragged on and it looked like Russia wouldn’t win easily.

What you have described is not how war works.


The moment that the U.S. launches kinetic strikes on someone else, the war is already on.


The only way the U.S. has been able to engineer the current situation in Ukraine is by not directly launching kinetic strikes.

 

[jhungary]

stupidest thing I've read on PDF. it's the US and Japan who should be fearing for escalation, why would China pass on the opportunity of deleting half the US navy and all its western pacific bases in one go?

Because you will lose ALL of your navy, and the war is happening in your backyard, so Chinese coastline are going to be devastated, and unless it goes nuclear, China has nothing to gain from "deleting" half the US Navy...

In case of nuclear war, the only thing China can gain is the shared title of world destroyer....

 

[FuturePAF]

What you have described is not how war works.


The moment that the U.S. launches kinetic strikes on someone else, the war is already on.


The only way the U.S. has been able to engineer the current situation in Ukraine is by not directly launching kinetic strikes.

Each Virginia class submarine have 40 VLS tubes. If stationed 500 nautical miles east of Taiwan and launching LRASMs while submerged, could China confirm who fired upon them?

Sure if China has a tight quarantine of the island with extensive ASW assets active, it will know, but short of that, covert assistance to Taiwan is a possibility, which China will be weary to counter strike.

China will have to take into account absorbing by some losses, to be able to keep the US and others out of overtly assisting Taiwan during active hostiles.

Knowing this China will have to invest more in building better defensive air defenses as well as anti-torpedo systems on each of its ships, especially the smaller ones. Something like the CAMM-ER on its smallest corvettes; where dozens of relatively long range air defense missiles can be carried by even the smallest ships.

Btw, take the example of the Afghans in August 2021. The Taliban struck afghan army forces and didn’t fight the foreign forces in their push to take the country. When the afghan army forces saw they weren’t being directly supported by foreign forces, they fell one by one, in a matter of days. Had the Talibs struck foreign forces, the foreigners would have rejoined the fight and the outcome would have been different. The Talibs absorbed their losses to achieve their overall goal.

If the less populous east coast of Taiwan is taken first with the use of marines and Type 075 LHDs, hope of resupply and supporting fire will be cutoff.

 

[jhungary]

Sure, but look at Russia. It knows where Ukraine is getting its supplies; NATO. But, you don’t see Russia attacking NATO, because it knows the ramifications.

Equally, China knows who is supplying Taiwan, and may even take the damage of cruise missiles launched from the safety of hidden submarines. If China focuses on Taiwan and prevails in achieving secure beachheads, then the futility of aiding Taiwan will become apparent, and Taiwan will be allowed to fall.

If China strikes back at non-Taiwanese forces, then Taiwan’s Allie’s won’t stop until China is pushed off Taiwan.

Also remember the sanctions against Russia ramped up as the war dragged on and it looked like Russia wouldn’t win easily.

First of all.

The notion of China can't land in Taiwan is laughable. It's impossible for China not to do that.

The question is ALWAYS not when China land in Taiwan, but how you can push forward from your beachhead. Again, you are looking at 2 scenarios.

1.) US did not engage but keep supplying weapon and munition to Taiwan.
2.) US did engage and as well as US Allies in the region.

If it was 1.) The war will drag on, but if China can strike a right balance as to how much in term of manpower and equipment they can lose and space it out, basically it's who have more backing, The West or China, China can win this in a long run, as the US and co usually have a shelf life of supporting, and they tend to lose interest after certain year of support. Chance is not great, but you don't want to go number 2.

If it was 2.) It have virtually no chances of winning. US trump almost all Chinese Navy, and then you are talking about some coalition of willing, pissing US off by either Attacking US base in Japan (which would drag Japan into war) or US Base in South Korea (Which would drag South Korea into war) or US soil in the pacific (which would drag the entire NATO into war) would not be optimal for the Chinese, it's hard enough to face off with US Navy which in term of capital ship is leading 3 to 1. That odds basically went sideway when you put Japan or other allies into it. The key to this war is to secure sea control in or around Taiwan, there are virtually no chance for China to break thru if they are fighting the US + allied.

 

[Communism]

Each Virginia class submarine have 40 VLS tubes. If stationed 500 nautical miles east of Taiwan and launching LRASMs while submerged, could China confirm who fired upon them?

Sure if China has a tight quarantine of the island with extensive ASW assets active, it will know, but short of that covert assistance to Taiwan is a possibility, which China will be weary to counter strike.

China would literally have hundreds if not thousands of satellites looking at Taiwan in this situation, along with radar everywhere.


"Stealth" PGMs are not actually invisible to radar, due to physics which make low frequency radar 100% effective against small "stealth" objects.


This is the reason why strategic "stealth" bombers have a minimum size.


Taiwan is an island. There is literally zero way for the U.S. to provide "covert" kinetic assistance to Taiwan in this situation, unless the U.S. dug a tunnel under the ocean from Japan to Taiwan.


The only thing your scenario would do is provide China a convenient cassus belli to destroy every U.S. surface combatant in the South China Sea with hypersonic/ballistic missiles.


They would then be able to hunt for submarines unopposed.

 

[ObeseGunTotingMurican]

China is easily deterred. They posture a lot, but their "final warning" is usually a bluff.

The US, on the other hand, aren't. From Pearl Harbor to 9/11 to the Maine to the Gulf of Tonkin incident, we have a long history of being willing to go into a long and protracted war over relatively small or even nonexistent provocations.

All we need to do is amp up our military presence in Taiwan and turn the question of forced unification into a question of whether Xi wants to go to a potentially world-ending war.

I am confident that they are bluffing.

 

[ObeseGunTotingMurican]

These warmonger Yankees are preparing for eventual war in the Taiwan Strait against China with these war games playing out all the time. China needs at least 2000 nukes to stop these Yankees even think of going to war with China over Taiwan.

Nobody can make the US rethink going to war. We have the world hostage. China isn't stupid enough to try anything against us, but we are quite ready to whoop their *** conventionally and then experience nuclear hellfire when it gets to that point.

China's only way to reunify is peacefully. Soft power is the cool new thing these days, I've heard.

 

[etylo]

Sure, but look at Russia. It knows where Ukraine is getting its supplies; NATO. But, you don’t see Russia attacking NATO, because it knows the ramifications.

Equally, China knows who is supplying Taiwan, and may even take the damage of cruise missiles launched from the safety of hidden submarines. If China focuses on Taiwan and prevails in achieving secure beachheads, then the futility of aiding Taiwan will become apparent, and Taiwan will be allowed to fall.

If China strikes back at non-Taiwanese forces, then Taiwan’s Allie’s won’t stop until China is pushed off Taiwan.

Also remember the sanctions against Russia ramped up as the war dragged on and it looked like Russia wouldn’t win easily.

No, China is not going to take hits or strikes from US and Japan forces without strike back, the US bases in the Western Pacific and Japanese lands are all fair targets in that case as PLA and Chinese strategists have spoken out publicly many times. If China doesn't fight back, giving US and Japan forces free hand to strike, there is no way to ensure that China can take the island too, such reaction on the Chinese side would be ready capitulation and foolish for the PLA and Chinese state. If US wants war and eventually escalate to nuclear war, China will be prepared to face it. In Ukraine, NATO forces are not hitting or bombing Russian forces or targets, that's the difference, that's why there is no fighting between Russia and NATO.

 

[gambit]

AFSOC conducts live-fire exercise with Rapid Dragon

During SOCEUR exercise ATREUS 22-4, two MC-130J Commando IIs assigned to the 352nd Special Operations Wing flew the Rapid Dragon package to a Royal Norwegian Air Force training range and deployed it

www.af.mil

Two Air Force Special Operations Command wings partnered in a total force initiative to conduct the first live-fire demonstration of Rapid Dragon, a long-range palletized munitions system, in the U.S. European Command theater over Andøya Space Defense Range, Nov. 9.​

​

Promising idea. Supposedly a C-17 can airdrop nearly 100 cruise missiles in single sortie from any altitude and heading. Each LRASM has a range of 500 miles which is beyond the reach of China's air defense.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

AFSOC conducts live-fire exercise with Rapid Dragon

During SOCEUR exercise ATREUS 22-4, two MC-130J Commando IIs assigned to the 352nd Special Operations Wing flew the Rapid Dragon package to a Royal Norwegian Air Force training range and deployed it

www.af.mil

Two Air Force Special Operations Command wings partnered in a total force initiative to conduct the first live-fire demonstration of Rapid Dragon, a long-range palletized munitions system, in the U.S. European Command theater over Andøya Space Defense Range, Nov. 9.​

​

Promising idea. Supposedly a C-17 can airdrop nearly 100 cruise missiles in single sortie from any altitude and heading. Each LRASM has a range of 500 miles which is beyond the reach of China's air defense.

It's already over. If there's a war with China today, the US will get its teeth punched down its throat.

If I were the US, I wouldn't worry about China taking Taiwan, I'd worry about it taking Hawaii.

 

[FuturePAF]

First of all.

The notion of China can't land in Taiwan is laughable. It's impossible for China not to do that.

The question is ALWAYS not when China land in Taiwan, but how you can push forward from your beachhead. Again, you are looking at 2 scenarios.

1.) US did not engage but keep supplying weapon and munition to Taiwan.
2.) US did engage and as well as US Allies in the region.

If it was 1.) The war will drag on, but if China can strike a right balance as to how much in term of manpower and equipment they can lose and space it out, basically it's who have more backing, The West or China, China can win this in a long run, as the US and co usually have a shelf life of supporting, and they tend to lose interest after certain year of support. Chance is not great, but you don't want to go number 2.

If it was 2.) It have virtually no chances of winning. US trump almost all Chinese Navy, and then you are talking about some coalition of willing, pissing US off by either Attacking US base in Japan (which would drag Japan into war) or US Base in South Korea (Which would drag South Korea into war) or US soil in the pacific (which would drag the entire NATO into war) would not be optimal for the Chinese, it's hard enough to face off with US Navy which in term of capital ship is leading 3 to 1. That odds basically went sideway when you put Japan or other allies into it. The key to this war is to secure sea control in or around Taiwan, there are virtually no chance for China to break thru if they are fighting the US + allied.

Never said China wouldn’t be able to make the landing, but that it would be at a cost. To minimize the cost in men/materiel and international blowback, they would be best suited to do it in a shock and awe manner.

I agree with the second point. They don’t want to drag any outside powers into this fight, because they will lose. Perhaps in 2049 when they have built up enough force they might be able to pull it offX but by then they will have other problems and the us will have decades to prepare Taiwan’s defenses.

If they are make this work they will need to go when all resources have been spent on Ukraine and the world is war weary from that war, allowing a Chinese invasion of Taiwan to be a fair accompli if it is done fast and with limited casualties, similar to Afghanistan.

It's already over. If there's a war with China today, the US will get its teeth punched down its throat.

If I were the US, I wouldn't worry about China taking Taiwan, I'd worry about it taking Hawaii.

When another Asian power attacked Hawaii, it didn’t end so well for them. There is P.O. sense in trying to exaggerate the capability of the PLA to resist US counterattacks. It’s wiser to limit the scope of the conflict to Taiwan. The world is primed to accept reunification, but not an expanded war.

A hint the world will accept reunification is the US shifting semiconductor manufacturing back to the U.S. once TSMC isn’t as vital to the world, China will be allowed to take Taiwan. So basically 2027.


China would be better suited to building up defenses against the LRASM and a large helicopter fleet to make the US politicians realize supporting Taiwan is pointless.

 

[F-22Raptor]

AFSOC conducts live-fire exercise with Rapid Dragon

During SOCEUR exercise ATREUS 22-4, two MC-130J Commando IIs assigned to the 352nd Special Operations Wing flew the Rapid Dragon package to a Royal Norwegian Air Force training range and deployed it

www.af.mil

Two Air Force Special Operations Command wings partnered in a total force initiative to conduct the first live-fire demonstration of Rapid Dragon, a long-range palletized munitions system, in the U.S. European Command theater over Andøya Space Defense Range, Nov. 9.​

​

Promising idea. Supposedly a C-17 can airdrop nearly 100 cruise missiles in single sortie from any altitude and heading. Each LRASM has a range of 500 miles which is beyond the reach of China's air defense.

The US is also developing LRASM-ER which will likely extend range out to 750-1,000 miles+.

 

[Communism]

Never said China wouldn’t be able to make the landing, but that it would be at a cost. To minimize the cost in men/materiel and international blowback, they would be best suited to do it in a shock and awe manner.

I agree with the second point. They don’t want to drag any outside powers into this fight, because they will lose. Perhaps in 2049 when they have built up enough force they might be able to pull it offX but by then they will have other problems and the us will have decades to prepare Taiwan’s defenses.

If they are make this work they will need to go when all resources have been spent on Ukraine and the world is war weary from that war, allowing a Chinese invasion of Taiwan to be a fair accompli if it is done fast and with limited casualties, similar to Afghanistan.


When another Asian power attacked Hawaii, it didn’t end so well for them. There is P.O. sense in trying to exaggerate the capability of the PLA to resist US counterattacks. It’s wiser to limit the scope of the conflict to Taiwan. The world is primed to accept reunification, but not an expanded war.

A hint the world will accept reunification is the US shifting semiconductor manufacturing back to the U.S. once TSMC isn’t as vital to the world, China will be allowed to take Taiwan. So basically 2027.


China would be better suited to building up defenses against the LRASM and a large helicopter fleet to make the US politicians realize supporting Taiwan is pointless.

The moment that the U.S. launches a direct kinetic strike on China during a Taiwan escalation, the escalation ladder to full salvo total thermonuclear war is more or less guaranteed.


This is why the best way for China to prepare for a Taiwan situation is to reach thermonuclear parity with the U.S. at the bare minimum.


Distributed nuclear bunkers for the entire population would also be prudent.


The U.S. only needs enough nuclear bunkers for the ~10% of the population that is the most difficult to replace, and can replenish the rest by absorbing replacement population from the failed states that will have lots of excess population in a full salvo total thermonuclear war.