Strategic Implications of the Indian escalation

[IbnAbdullah]

Salaam


The Indians decided to enter into Pakistani territory and drop a bunch of bombs.

There are obviously going to be short term implications: retaliatory strike of some sort and/or diplomatic offensive etc.

However, I feel there other strategic and broader implications of this action by the Indians. Essentially, through this act they may have undone the effects of the post 9/11 scenario. Pakistan essentially turned the LoC into International border and slowly 'abandoned' the Kashmiri Freedom movement.

The Pakistani government and the military leadership seemed to have put kashmir on the back burner trying to focus on economic recovery and in house cleaning.

Right at the time the Kasmiri Freedom movement was starting to get violent, and Pakistan seemed satisfied with lip service and 'moral support' which didn't mean much, the Indians did this.

They also repeatedly threaten Pakistan with water issues. Which makes the issue a whole lot more important for a Pakistan already facing water shortage.

Now the Indians seem to want to get into a kabaddi match or something. They want to fight a fight in which they have an advantage - conventional direct warfare. It does not mean this is the only response they'll get.

Kashmir is getting hot on its own. The Americans are leaving Afghanistan. There are a lot of resources that are about to be freed up for Pakistan which can be used to help the Kashmiri movement.

If the Indians cry foul, Pakistan can point to the Indian action.

LoC is line of control not the international border. If Indians AF planes can cross it to drop bombs without declaring war, then it can work both ways.


Tl:dr

The Indian action has provided Pakistan with renewed motivation and justification for helping Kashmir struggle - and others.

If crossing border to bomb targets without declaring war can work for one, it can work for the other as well.

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[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

No implication , we free up the remainder of Kashmir and fence the border

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Pak needs to be more vigilant now. India has lost the element of surprise with the IAF too for the rules of engagement will definitely be changed. Any in-coming IAF fighter can be considered as a mortal threat and acted accordingly. Not to mention all strategic forces can be put on DEFCON 5 (Nuclear attack is imminent, and so is the counter attack) level at such scenarios. Therefore, free hand to IED blasts inside the IOK....

 

[Viny]

No implication , we free up the remainder of Kashmir and fence the border

Could not afford fencing of afgan border, here you are talking about taking kashmir and fencing border...
Oh dont forget the commitment to Iran to fence the border...I guess all the resources will be used building borders fences... Looks like inspired from TRUMP

 

[IbnAbdullah]

Salaam

Pak needs to be more vigilant now. India has lost the element of surprise with the IAF too for the rules of engagement will definitely be changed. Any in-coming IAF fighter can be considered as a mortal threat and acted accordingly. Not to mention all strategic forces can be put on DEFCON 5 (Nuclear attack is imminent, and so is the counter attack) level at such scenarios. Therefore, free hand to IED blasts inside the IOK....

Yes brother, the rules of engagement have changed now.

Even during kargil and other escalation the IAF never did any serious air space violations let alone dropping bombs.

I heard a bunch of AF experts mention this as initially Pakistan didn't realize the IAF would do anything more than the usual teasing. The rules of engagement were to force the intruders out and that was done. The short time in which they dropped bombs and left wasn't enough to get higher authority approval.

Now, as you've said, the rules have changed. They will be viewed as attackers and engaged immediately.


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[Ali_Baba]

Once this blows over, PAF needs to revisit those rules of engagement, they need to be more aggressive than what they are now. IAF aircraft in PAF airspace get shot down. Simple. This needs to be communicated.

ALOT of bother could have been saved if PAF shot down the IAF attempted strike once it crossed into Pakistan. There would not have needed a retalitory strike by PAF or further shootdowns. Issue would have stopped there and then.