Strategic implications of the Brahmos missile attack

[khansaheeb]

Your expectations of what is good enough for Pakistan are meaningless.

Pakistan can not take any explanation from India at face value.

Brownie points & Indian discomfiture are irrelevant in context of security.

The massive shift in Indian policy supposes that Pakistan would do nothing in retaliation. That is a false & dangerous assumption to say the least. This is brinksmanship.

I wouldn't be surprised if Pakistan admiral is shopping and going through Nuke sub adverts in Chinese Navy mags late at night. It is obvious that Pakistan's land based deterrence cannot survive a first strike from India, so there is no MAD. We seriously need a second and third strike system to ensure total deterrence or Mutual destruction.

 

[Luosifen]

I wouldn't be surprised if Pakistan admiral is shopping and going through Nuke sub adverts in Chinese Navy mags late at night. It is obvious that Pakistan's land based deterrence cannot survive a first strike from India, so there is no MAD. We seriously need a second and third strike system to ensure total deterrence or Mutual destruction.

China did add building capacity for cranking out SSNs and SSBNs like dumplings recently, though this is mainly for PLAN needs as first priority.

 

[Battlion25]

This is written by someone whos newbie or has lack of stragetic understanding and specifically the cold start mentioning.

1. India will not pursue such moves as it is entirely unpredictable because it can't project a conventional advantage aside from taking to many nuke hits and it's entire insfrastruture and food chain will collapse.

2. Aside from being an unpredictable affair where nothing is guraanteed they could lose everything as consequence in defeat if they were outmanuvered which is not out of the occasion.

India's cold start doctrine ended in 1998 but it was still kept on the low burn but completely ended around 2021 died. lets assume few nuclear exhanges happens and India attempts to push forces in they will immediately run into Pakistan armed forces in a mountainous region and within 12-24 hours the IEA will likely deploy 300k to Gilgat and Punjab to quickly mobilize an offensive inside India itself hence majority of the war will take place inside north India main while all Indian population centers will take a hit including a massive nuclear winter taking place.

3. India could theorically speaking get completely invaded once they run into a wall inside Gilgit which is a nightmarish terrain leading to by default majority of conflict being fought in north India.

4. For how long can their populations whether extreme hunger during the nuclear winter as they are facing an extremely more motivated foe.

The likelihood policy of India is stragetic patience for atleast 2-3 decades and building technological advances and their target is to outpace Pakistan at much greater distance which is not viable in this decade but they are betting on it will be viable in the coming 2-3 decades and strengthening their economy, professionalism, trying to close out their weakness caps etc etc before they feel extremely assured and confident that a conflict could go their way but at the time being it is not and they could lose everything in a miscalculation hence why from an Indian perspective his not in a rush and observing stragetic patience is his policy and rolling the dice waiting 2-3 decades to build into industrial power is his ultimate goal..

Majority of nationalized analysts don't get the picture because they view things from a narrow view point and one side because of the in-ability to put themselves inside the Indian shoes in order to see things from their perspective. India is fairly confident in defending itself but it is not confident in winning a nuclear conflict currently due to the ground reality and some aspects favoring Pakistan such as terrain, stragetic depth etc etc and the unpredictability IEA provide and Pakistan's technological capabilities being on pair etc etc.

 

[VkdIndian]

Your expectations of what is good enough for Pakistan are meaningless.

Not really. Response can’t be more than perceived to be adequate. In this situation India would allow Pakistan to gain mileage a shade less but not more than appropriate to its assessment. How would they do it, is not known.
What is the proportionate is anybody’s guess. It would obviously be different as seen by each side from its own perspective.

Brownie points & Indian discomfiture are irrelevant in context of security.

Every situation across the world has someone to gain and someone to loose something. Pakistan is the gainer in this case both diplomatically and militarily. Pakistan extracted an apology, raised it on various international fora, demanded joint investigation and was able to project India as an irresponsible nuclear power. Many countries would definitely ask India behind closed doors about this fiasco. Internally, political leaders must have asked some tough questions from the military.

Pakistan got quite a lot of valuable data on the missile profile and various parameters. Missile debris can also provide valuable information. All this came as a gift since it wasn’t a planned launch by India.

This is brinksmanship.

This launch was not. Had it been intentional then yes.
Moreover, Isn’t brinkmanship part of the game between two adversaries. Threshold of brinkmanship displayed by the powers on both the sides after this incident was a little sedate compared to what is being proposed by FMs here.

My assessment is in line with what has been displayed by both the sides till now but your’s is more aggressive.

The story is not over yet. There is a possibility of Pakistan doing something to send a message. If that is done then it would be uncalled for. Retaliation is done for an intentional act and not an inadvertent one.

 

[Chak Bamu]

I wouldn't be surprised if Pakistan admiral is shopping and going through Nuke sub adverts in Chinese Navy mags late at night. It is obvious that Pakistan's land based deterrence cannot survive a first strike from India, so there is no MAD. We seriously need a second and third strike system to ensure total deterrence or Mutual destruction.

I think we do have second strike capability. We demonstrated that a number of years ago from an Agosta submarine.

Not really. Response can’t be more than perceived to be adequate. In this situation India would allow Pakistan to gain mileage a shade less but not more than appropriate to its assessment. How would they do it, is not known.
What is the proportionate is anybody’s guess. It would obviously be different as seen by each side from its own perspective.

Every situation across the world has someone to gain and someone to loose something. Pakistan is the gainer in this case both diplomatically and militarily. Pakistan extracted an apology, raised it on various international fora, demanded joint investigation and was able to project India as an irresponsible nuclear power. Many countries would definitely ask India behind closed doors about this fiasco. Internally, political leaders must have asked some tough questions from the military.

Pakistan got quite a lot of valuable data on the missile profile and various parameters. Missile debris can also provide valuable information. All this came as a gift since it wasn’t a planned launch by India.


This launch was not. Had it been intentional then yes.
Moreover, Isn’t brinkmanship part of the game between two adversaries. Threshold of brinkmanship displayed by the powers on both the sides after this incident was a little sedate compared to what is being proposed by FMs here.

My assessment is in line with what has been displayed by both the sides till now but your’s is more aggressive.

The story is not over yet. There is a possibility of Pakistan doing something to send a message. If that is done then it would be uncalled for. Retaliation is done for an intentional act and not an inadvertent one.

Whatever floats your boat man. You can not repeat a mantra & expect it to stick.

Pakistan must view all Indian actions from a security perspective. This is our necessity & borne by history. If both the nations decide to build confidence building measures, it would take at least a decade to get somewhere. Until that time comes, do not complain how we view individual incidents. Is it probable that this launch was accidental? Yes, it is probable. Is it likely? Not in my opinion.

 

[Oom]

I think we do have second strike capability. We demonstrated that a number of years ago from an Agosta submarine.


Whatever floats your boat man. You can not repeat a mantra & expect it to stick.

Pakistan must view all Indian actions from a security perspective. This is our necessity & borne by history. If both the nations decide to build confidence building measures, it would take at least a decade to get somewhere. Until that time comes, do not complain how we view individual incidents. Is it probable that this launch was accidental? Yes, it is probable. Is it likely? Not in my opinion.

Pakistan doesn’t have the luxury of giving India the benefit of the doubt.

 

[khansaheeb]

China did add building capacity for cranking out SSNs and SSBNs like dumplings recently, though this is mainly for PLAN needs as first priority.

It must be Pakistan's main priority. The Indian stupidity has made the world an unsafe place. The world Doomsday clock must be seconds away from midnight.

 

[Arsalan345]

I think we are now a sitting duck. India has tested everything on Pakistan. someday, they will fire ICBM as well. A big change is needed. Pakistan has been humiliated several times and not only one time. Our policy is... let them attack. Chill and relax.

 

[TheSolution]

I think we are now a sitting duck. India has tested everything on Pakistan. someday, they will fire ICBM as well. A big change is needed. Pakistan has been humiliated several times and not only one time. Our policy is... let them attack. Chill and relax.

And what use does firing an ICBM have in the context of Pakistan?

We are literally next door to them.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

The Indian economy today has two major exports pharmaceuticals and back office outsourcing . Their industrial output is dismal for a country of their size and population. If China forces the west to be the manufacturing hub for low and high technology output , Indian dreams of capturing this market to increase their exports is dashed. This means their economy will stagnate creating social issues.

We can create a separate thread to speak in detail as I don’t want to derail this thread
k

I won't be deviating too far from the subject matter of the post by questioning the animus for Indian aggression against Pakistan. West is not becoming the factory floor of the world again. It is actively shifting industrial production from China to countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, India, South Korea, etc. Therefore, this scenario is without merit.

 

[Solidify]

This is good topic for video production for the average person.

BrahMos missile what are the implications ?
watch

 

[Khan vilatey]

I won't be deviating too far from the subject matter of the post by questioning the animus for Indian aggression against Pakistan. West is not becoming the factory floor of the world again. It is actively shifting industrial production from China to countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, India, South Korea, etc. Therefore, this scenario is without merit.

Let’s start another topic, the total production capacity of those markets is about 3-5% combined of the total exports of China the movement has proven slow and painful as manufacturing requires an eco system with intwined supply chains. All of this is available in China. The most I have seen in-terms of manufacturing is very low end stuff Which China is getting out of like recycling plastics etc.

The reason for this is the Chinese middle class which is 500-600 million strong creating a massive market for all these countries products including Pakistan. Very much like ford use to sell the model T to a generation of Americans including its factory workers. I don’t like imran khan but he has managed to double the exports to china. This is definitely an area we need to grown substantially

K

 

[Solidify]

BrahMos missile what are the implications ?
watch

 

[Arsalan345]

And what use does firing an ICBM have in the context of Pakistan?

We are literally next door to them.

I know that we are their neighbors but expect everything from India. You know people in Pakistan used to talk about Pakistan's nuclear deterrence but now it's eroded. Don't think about something which they can't do in the future. they can do anything. They actually did lots of things in the last 5 years which is an eye-opener for many. Living in illusion isn't reasonable. Today India can do anything. What purpose does ICBM serve? Well! they can tell the world that they can fire ICBM too, just like a cruise missile. They aren't giving any respect to Pakistan and Pakistan must come out from this illusion that they can never do this, they can never do that. India is a clever enemy.

 

[Khan vilatey]

BrahMos missile what are the implications ?
watch

Awesome man well captured

K