As far as considering this a thought experiment, I am all for it, but seeing it as some sort of writing on the wall is not very rational. If anything could be learned from the Ukraine war, it is that once the dice rolls wars can be fought at their own pace and there is no way to make very realistic estimations of attrition. The Russian military is struggling to supply its own frontline troops let alone supplying the Indian military. It is a plausible assumption that any limited Indian action across the LoC/IB would meet stiff resistance ultimately if not immediately (if strategic surprise is achieved like it was in 65). In such a situation, attrition would be inflicted on the foe and war stocks would exhaust briskly (Indian armed forces are marred by gaping voids of stocks of spares anyways - emergency purchases they end up making after crisis like Kargil, Pulwama, Galwan, etc. are instructive guides in this respect). Why would someone want to commit harakiri for no rhyme or reason?
Wars are fought to achieve a strategic objective. What is India's strategic objective? What would be its casus belli? The OP should answer these questions instead of mocking people who question his assumptions.
@Chak Bamu, positive ratings are pretty cheap these days.
I'm afraid you have drawn all the wrong conclusions...
Let me elaborate, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine before it became a hot war was considered long shot by many... the oversimplification of a worldview into a proxy narrative of sand and sunshine only blows away when reality hits...
For instance do you by any chance assume that Modi has less hubris than Putin? Or, that Putin may need calm, rally his crowds or posture/pander for ratings? Which is why things that have happened and continue to happen around the conflict are very important... they are the true tell on the simmering issues... because they come to the fore... perhaps because they're not as peripheral as many think.
Again your assumption that Putin has dug himself into a quagmire(?) Perhaps..., He didn't assume the kind of resistance or quality of his campaign etc... these are outside impressions and assumptions... based further on lack of understanding, ignorance of goals at hand. So, without going into details it is very safe to assume that Russia can turn Ukraine into rubble several times over and if Europe so chooses will see the similar fate of it's cities and infrastructure in general. That being said you should understand that the theater of war is Ukraine itself... they're defending themselves on home turf with the best the west has to offer... the onus remains on them at whatever point in time they choose to stop and accept reality. Or, keep watching a slow motion train wreck... the conflict is bigger than them and they are(or at least some are) cognizant of the fact that they are fighting not for Ukraine but for the combined west and that their sacrifice must be accepted as such...
Anyways, back to India... it is again a dormant conflict that is only waiting for either someone to make the wrong move or assume that the time has come... remember this conflict is one of the cogs amongst many and smaller of the bigger wheels in motion on whose dial each find themselves perhaps even unwilling, but pawns, nonetheless...
Remember Ukrainians were pegging their hopes on one deterrence, that Russia will never dare attack them knowing that the combined west stands with them and that they had been willing participants in a war of aggression against Iraq something quite similar to what they face today...
Who is Pakistan banking on? Knowing that it's bellicose neighbor has shown not only an appetite to fight but most importantly kept a posture of complete aggression while simultaneously needling Pakistani defenses here and there... So, the coincidence is that a civilian airliner headed to Pakistani airspace with a military code... or now a mistaken launch of nuclear capable missile through again civilian aviation into Pakistani airspace. Or, perhaps two different approaches to gauge Pakistani response...
I don't know... but keeping your eyes wide shut won't help either...