increasingly turning to India instead of the US or China
- As Southeast Asia faces doubts about Beijing and Washington, the region is turning to India and Australia as potential counterweights, experts say.
- Vietnam, for one, is cozying up to New Delhi on South China Sea issues and defense deals.
- The Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Canberra are holding a special summit in Sydney, a potential sign that the region is warming up further to Australia.
Beijing and
Washington have long been the dominant powers in
Southeast Asia, home to some of the world's fastest-growing economies. But the region is increasingly seeking alternative alliances amid unease over China's rising influence and perceptions of an unpredictable White House.
Sonu Mehta/Hindustan Times via Getty Images
India's 69th Republic Day on January 26, 2018: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Indian Vice President Venkaiah Naidu and Indian President Ram Nath Kovind pose with Prime Minister of Laos Thongloun Sisoulith, Myanmar's civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loon, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen and Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc.
"Specific Southeast Asian states are now seeking to diversify their strategic partnerships, beyond a binary choice between Beijing and Washington," the Council on Foreign Relations, a U.S. think tank, said in a note this week.
A key element of those diversification efforts is working with
India "as a more forceful counterweight to China and hedge against a declining United States," the note said.
Trade deals such as
the newly-inked Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans Pacific Partnership as well as intelligence sharing efforts on terrorism are also indicative of Southeast Asian leaders seeking greater regional cooperation.
US 'increasingly unreliable'
Certain countries, such as
Cambodia and
Thailand, haven't signaled opposition to Beijing's growing clout in the area, which is reflected by an influx of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative and
man-made Chinese islands in the South China Sea.
But others, including
Vietnam, have publicly come out against China's behavior in the region.
Previously, those nations could turn to Washington for leadership, but President
Donald Trump's controversial measures — from
tariffs on foreign aluminum and steel imports to firing Secretary of State
Rex Tillerson — has unnerved America's Asian allies, according to strategists.
The manner in which Donald Trump handled Tillerson's dismissal, combined with his snap decision to meet Kim Jong Un and other recent actions, reinforce the perception of the U.S. in Asia that the U.S. is increasingly unreliable," said Philip Yun, executive director of Ploughshares Fund, an anti-nuclear weapons group.
People in the region are paying attention to the fact that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, "who had touted his close relationship with Trump, was blinded-side by Trump's agreement to a U.S.-North Korea summit," Yun said.
Also telling are recent comments from Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Yun said. This week, Lee said ASEAN must adjust to a new power balance in Asia, suggesting the bloc look more to China and India.
The U.S. is still widely expected to continue strong defense ties with Southeast Asian countries on matters such as freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.
[paste:font size="3"]India's rise in Southeast Asia
Widespread apprehension over China's ambitions has helped Prime Minister Narendra Modienhance political and economic ties with Southeast Asian economies under a policy known as "Act East."
Hanoi, for example, is partnering with New Delhi on South China Sea issues. In a meeting earlier this month, Modi and Vietnamese President Tran Dai Quang committed to more defense equipment deals and joint exploration in the international waterway, prompting criticism from Beijing.
