Madali
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- Mar 28, 2015
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Can we please have some Turkish posters post here more, special about what they think happened?
The whole thing seems very weird to me, from a distant perspective.
Usually when military coups, they succeed, or if they don't, it happens after a prolonged conflict. Something like this is rare because it means the military elements miscalculated badly, and the last governmental department you expect to estimate conflicts so badly is the military. I mean, if these guys didn't expect to lose so badly, how could they ever have been trusted with military matters?
I think it seems realistic that Erdogan is right that Gulen's fans were behind this. From what I understood (but Turkish members could be more accurate on this than me), Gulen's followers are a bit cultish. Such people usually are disillusioned. They might be 10% of the population, but in their mind, they might think they are 90% of the population.
The other thing I was thinking of was that this coupe might have been planned for months now, and had lots of support. Erdogan might have heard about this and his foreign policy changes (resetting relationship with Israel & Russia) might have satisfied a lot of officers who were leaning towards the coupe. The plotters might have thought if they wait more, they will lose more and more officers and Erdogan distances himself away from some of his Islamist foreign policies. If this assumption makes sense, then it could mean that if the plotters acted a more or so before, maybe they would have been more successful.
Finally, what about a little conspiracy theory to finish of this post. What if Erdogan sort of secretly encouraged this, and maybe asked some of his top officers to pretend they are willing to help with the coupe, and then maneuvered his enemies to fall into the trap, giving him the best mantle to now strike heavily among the militarily ranks and make it more inline with his own aspirations. If this is true, Erdogan would be much smarter than we would have assumed.
Thoughts?
The whole thing seems very weird to me, from a distant perspective.
Usually when military coups, they succeed, or if they don't, it happens after a prolonged conflict. Something like this is rare because it means the military elements miscalculated badly, and the last governmental department you expect to estimate conflicts so badly is the military. I mean, if these guys didn't expect to lose so badly, how could they ever have been trusted with military matters?
I think it seems realistic that Erdogan is right that Gulen's fans were behind this. From what I understood (but Turkish members could be more accurate on this than me), Gulen's followers are a bit cultish. Such people usually are disillusioned. They might be 10% of the population, but in their mind, they might think they are 90% of the population.
The other thing I was thinking of was that this coupe might have been planned for months now, and had lots of support. Erdogan might have heard about this and his foreign policy changes (resetting relationship with Israel & Russia) might have satisfied a lot of officers who were leaning towards the coupe. The plotters might have thought if they wait more, they will lose more and more officers and Erdogan distances himself away from some of his Islamist foreign policies. If this assumption makes sense, then it could mean that if the plotters acted a more or so before, maybe they would have been more successful.
Finally, what about a little conspiracy theory to finish of this post. What if Erdogan sort of secretly encouraged this, and maybe asked some of his top officers to pretend they are willing to help with the coupe, and then maneuvered his enemies to fall into the trap, giving him the best mantle to now strike heavily among the militarily ranks and make it more inline with his own aspirations. If this is true, Erdogan would be much smarter than we would have assumed.
Thoughts?