Except Ukraine ain't Iraq and Russia ain't USA. Imagine this, after the Uk army gets defeated (and I agree that it probably will), what will those 30 something million Ukrainians do:
1- go home and learn Russian
2- raise a chicken
3- get western arms & advisers and start blowing up Russian tanks?
Russia won't hold zones that are anthetical to it. It will hold referendum in Eastern ukraine ,take it as it is pro-russian . Hold referendum in west ukraine and transfer those to hungary and poland. Let the poles and the hungarians deal with the insurgency of the neo-nazi ukrianians nationalists.
But there will be no independence for any part of western ukraine as western ukraine has always been trouble for USSR . The NKVD/smersh suffered enormous casualties there and considering that NKVD/smersh performed well against nazi forces and had a positive kill ratio compared to other soviet forces, it suffered huge losses in West ukraine.
Poland always has wanted west ukraine.
This is national-liberation struggle. In 1648, the Cossacks of Little Russia revolted against the Polish king and in 1654 swore allegiance to the Czar of All-Russia. So Little Russia was reunited with the Great Russia.
Currently residents of Novorossia fight for liberation from the power of neo-Nazi illegal junta.
New Russia - is south and east of the former Ukraine. Little Russia - the center and north. It is possible that Little Russia will also fight for independence over time.
This is at tactical level. At strategic level Eurasian Union needs about 20-30 million population (Slavic, Russian) to become a full-fledged independent market.
Russia will only take east ukraine . West and central ukraine will be transfer to poland and hungary.The last insurgency of OUN ended up killing 30,000 NKVD troops ,much worse than what happens due to chechen insurgency in 40's.
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