Martian2
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Sino-Russian Alliance: Seven Arguments for a De Facto Alliance
1. China-Russia Alliance is defense against US SIOP.
Since 1961, the United States has a battle plan called SIOP (Single Integrated Operational Plan) to nuke both China and Russia in the event of a war. In the view of the United States, only China and Russia have sufficient population, military technology, landmass, and economic size to generate global power.
Thus, the United States cannot only nuke either China or Russia. The United States has to nuke both China and Russia to prevent either country from dominating a post-nuclear war world.
In contrast, China has pledged a No First Use (NFU) policy. China will not use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states. The United States has rejected a No First Use pledge.
Russia has said it will only use nuclear weapons to defend the territory of the Russian Federation.
The nuclear posture of China and Russia are defensive. The US SIOP plan is clearly offensive against China and Russia.
I believe an informal Sino-Russian alliance already exists and is inevitable. At its core, China and Russia want to protect themselves from the US SIOP plan (and its successor).
WHY OBAMA CAN'T END NUKES | Newsweek
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2. China and Russia are building ICBMs that are only useful in targeting the US and not each other.
The official policy of the United States is to threaten China and Russia with thermonuclear destruction if the United States goes to war with EITHER of them. Not surprisingly, China and Russia are building up their own thermonuclear arsenals to counter-threaten the United States.
ICBMs have a minimum effective range due to its sub-orbital flight path. Thus, China's DF-41 12-MIRV ICBM is effective only against the US and not Russia.
Similarly, Russian nuke trains are only effective against the US and not China.
Why Russia's Reviving Its Nuke Trains | Sputnik
"It was reported that the Russian Army may receive five Barguzin railroad ICBM systems by 2020."
China and Russia share a common interest in deterring the US SIOP nuclear strike plan. China's growing arsenal of DF-41 12-MIRV ICBMs and Russia's revival of nuke trains to fire ICBMs are proof of a de-facto Sino-Russian military alliance. China and Russia are both working toward a common goal of stopping the US SIOP.
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3. US technology sanctions against Russia has forced the Russians to rely on China for semiconductor chips and microelectronics.
After Russia "reclaimed"/"invaded" the Crimea, the United States sent a message to Russia by imposing crippling technology sanctions. Since Russia does not produce microchips or microelectronics, the Russians were in a tight spot. However, the Russians were able to find an alternative technology supplier in China.
The US technology sanctions have taught the Russians that China is an important "friend"/"ally" for microelectronic technology.
Chinese microelectronics will replace U.S. microelectronics in Russian space, defense industries - newspaper | Russia Beyond The Headlines
"Russian rocket and space and defense enterprises plan to buy batches of electronic components from China worth some $1 billion in the next calendar year, the newspaper Izvestia reported on Wednesday."
----------
4. US and European economic sanctions over Russian involvement in Eastern Ukraine has led to Russian dependence on oil exports to China.
The Russians made the common mistake of putting all of their economic eggs into one basket. The Russians think of themselves as strictly European. Thus, let's only export Russian oil to Europe and hinder China's economic development. There are two flaws in this line of reasoning.
Firstly, China exports to the world. China proved for 30 years that it could grow 10% economically per year without significant Russian trade. Hence, Russia never had the ability to accelerate or hinder Chinese technological and economic development.
Secondly, Russia was basically imposing an economic sanction on itself by restricting trade with the Chinese economic colossus next door. It's like Canada shutting off trade with the United States. It's called economic stupidity.
After the United States and Europe restricted economic relations with Russia, where could Russia go to earn hard currency? The only solution to Russia's economic problem was China. China has a domestic market of $10 trillion and hard currency reserves of $3 trillion. China's huge market could absorb billions of dollars of Russian oil exports and pay hard currency for them.
Russia has realized China is an important economic lifeline. This is another compelling reason for a de facto Sino-Russian economic alliance.
Russia beats Saudi Arabia as China's top crude oil supplier in 2016 | Reuters
----------
5. China and Russia are working together politically by casting UN veto votes against US resolutions on Syria.
I've lost count of the number of China and Russia tandem vetoes at the UN against US proposals on Syria.
Russian vetoes of UN resolutions on Syria | Daily Mail
"Russia has now blocked seven UN resolutions regarding Syria since unrest erupted there in 2011, almost always with support from China."
----------
6. Trade between China and Russia is booming.
Mutually beneficial trade between two neighboring countries fosters economic interdependence. Over time, China and Russia will have an important stake in each other's economic well-being. A shared economic destiny tends to move countries toward a de facto alliance over time.
China-Russia Trade Turnover Grew by 28% in February | Sputnik
"BEIJING (Sputnik) – In February, Chinese exports to Russia increased by 14.9 percent to $2.02 billion, while imports from Russia increased by 44.3 percent to $3.014 billion, the customs statistics showed."
----------
7. China and Russia are holding an unprecedented number of joint military exercises on land and the sea.
In the past, China and Russia held joint SCO Peace Mission military exercises. The land-based military exercises have grown in scope over the years. Currently, thousands of troops are involved in the Peace Mission land-based military training. Furthermore, China and Russia have extended their joint military operations to the South China Sea.
China, Russia begin joint exercises in South China Sea | CNN
----------
In conclusion, there is a multitude of economic, technological, political, and military reasons pushing China and Russia into a de facto alliance.
1. China-Russia Alliance is defense against US SIOP.
Since 1961, the United States has a battle plan called SIOP (Single Integrated Operational Plan) to nuke both China and Russia in the event of a war. In the view of the United States, only China and Russia have sufficient population, military technology, landmass, and economic size to generate global power.
Thus, the United States cannot only nuke either China or Russia. The United States has to nuke both China and Russia to prevent either country from dominating a post-nuclear war world.
In contrast, China has pledged a No First Use (NFU) policy. China will not use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states. The United States has rejected a No First Use pledge.
Russia has said it will only use nuclear weapons to defend the territory of the Russian Federation.
The nuclear posture of China and Russia are defensive. The US SIOP plan is clearly offensive against China and Russia.
I believe an informal Sino-Russian alliance already exists and is inevitable. At its core, China and Russia want to protect themselves from the US SIOP plan (and its successor).
WHY OBAMA CAN'T END NUKES | Newsweek
----------
2. China and Russia are building ICBMs that are only useful in targeting the US and not each other.
The official policy of the United States is to threaten China and Russia with thermonuclear destruction if the United States goes to war with EITHER of them. Not surprisingly, China and Russia are building up their own thermonuclear arsenals to counter-threaten the United States.
ICBMs have a minimum effective range due to its sub-orbital flight path. Thus, China's DF-41 12-MIRV ICBM is effective only against the US and not Russia.
Similarly, Russian nuke trains are only effective against the US and not China.
Why Russia's Reviving Its Nuke Trains | Sputnik
"It was reported that the Russian Army may receive five Barguzin railroad ICBM systems by 2020."
China and Russia share a common interest in deterring the US SIOP nuclear strike plan. China's growing arsenal of DF-41 12-MIRV ICBMs and Russia's revival of nuke trains to fire ICBMs are proof of a de-facto Sino-Russian military alliance. China and Russia are both working toward a common goal of stopping the US SIOP.
----------
3. US technology sanctions against Russia has forced the Russians to rely on China for semiconductor chips and microelectronics.
After Russia "reclaimed"/"invaded" the Crimea, the United States sent a message to Russia by imposing crippling technology sanctions. Since Russia does not produce microchips or microelectronics, the Russians were in a tight spot. However, the Russians were able to find an alternative technology supplier in China.
The US technology sanctions have taught the Russians that China is an important "friend"/"ally" for microelectronic technology.
Chinese microelectronics will replace U.S. microelectronics in Russian space, defense industries - newspaper | Russia Beyond The Headlines
"Russian rocket and space and defense enterprises plan to buy batches of electronic components from China worth some $1 billion in the next calendar year, the newspaper Izvestia reported on Wednesday."
----------
4. US and European economic sanctions over Russian involvement in Eastern Ukraine has led to Russian dependence on oil exports to China.
The Russians made the common mistake of putting all of their economic eggs into one basket. The Russians think of themselves as strictly European. Thus, let's only export Russian oil to Europe and hinder China's economic development. There are two flaws in this line of reasoning.
Firstly, China exports to the world. China proved for 30 years that it could grow 10% economically per year without significant Russian trade. Hence, Russia never had the ability to accelerate or hinder Chinese technological and economic development.
Secondly, Russia was basically imposing an economic sanction on itself by restricting trade with the Chinese economic colossus next door. It's like Canada shutting off trade with the United States. It's called economic stupidity.
After the United States and Europe restricted economic relations with Russia, where could Russia go to earn hard currency? The only solution to Russia's economic problem was China. China has a domestic market of $10 trillion and hard currency reserves of $3 trillion. China's huge market could absorb billions of dollars of Russian oil exports and pay hard currency for them.
Russia has realized China is an important economic lifeline. This is another compelling reason for a de facto Sino-Russian economic alliance.
Russia beats Saudi Arabia as China's top crude oil supplier in 2016 | Reuters
----------
5. China and Russia are working together politically by casting UN veto votes against US resolutions on Syria.
I've lost count of the number of China and Russia tandem vetoes at the UN against US proposals on Syria.
Russian vetoes of UN resolutions on Syria | Daily Mail
"Russia has now blocked seven UN resolutions regarding Syria since unrest erupted there in 2011, almost always with support from China."
----------
6. Trade between China and Russia is booming.
Mutually beneficial trade between two neighboring countries fosters economic interdependence. Over time, China and Russia will have an important stake in each other's economic well-being. A shared economic destiny tends to move countries toward a de facto alliance over time.
China-Russia Trade Turnover Grew by 28% in February | Sputnik
"BEIJING (Sputnik) – In February, Chinese exports to Russia increased by 14.9 percent to $2.02 billion, while imports from Russia increased by 44.3 percent to $3.014 billion, the customs statistics showed."
----------
7. China and Russia are holding an unprecedented number of joint military exercises on land and the sea.
In the past, China and Russia held joint SCO Peace Mission military exercises. The land-based military exercises have grown in scope over the years. Currently, thousands of troops are involved in the Peace Mission land-based military training. Furthermore, China and Russia have extended their joint military operations to the South China Sea.
China, Russia begin joint exercises in South China Sea | CNN
----------
In conclusion, there is a multitude of economic, technological, political, and military reasons pushing China and Russia into a de facto alliance.
