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Sino-Japanese Rift is part of US is part of US strategy, says an ex diploma

Again, i am still waiting on how Japan gain control on Senkaku will benefit the US, i can see it benefit the Japs, i don't see how they can benefit the US.

Japan having sovereignty of the Senkaku doesn't benefit the US in any fashion I agree.

I also of course agree that the thread topic is absolute bull as the US is a status quo power and would rather not shake the boat, but the US state department has already affirmed that the Islands fall under the MDT, and so there is now a US interest in Japan retaining the islands against the use or threats of use of force by China. To not do so would hurt our credibility when it comes to defending our allies and puts into question whether treaty obligations are really a red line to us not just regionally, but globally.

Well, this is what I believe, but do you believe the US will face any such consequences should Japan lose the Senkaku to China and the US does not respond to what our own state department has said about our obligations, or do you believe I am taking a slippery slope?
 
Japan having sovereignty of the Senkaku doesn't benefit the US in any fashion I agree.

I also of course agree that the thread topic is absolute bull as the US is a status quo power and would rather not shake the boat, but the US state department has already affirmed that the Islands fall under the MDT, and so there is now a US interest in Japan retaining the islands against the use or threats of use of force by China. To not do so would hurt our credibility when it comes to defending our allies and puts into question whether treaty obligations are really a red line to us not just regionally, but globally.

Well, this is what I believe, but do you believe the US will face any such consequences should Japan lose the Senkaku to China and the US does not respond to what our own state department has said about our obligations, or do you believe I am taking a slippery slope?

My prediction is, First, Japanese will not lose Senkaku to China as there are no pointing direction to China any more than some map that said they are there, international law require more than maps, they need to be able to survey the whole island to see if there is some form of existing government that pre-date the 1895 annexation and they must indicated that the Government are chinese to be able to restore to Chinese rule (Casus Terra nullius). Which is The chances are slim in my opinion.

Let me answer your question on the military side of the problem first, using my knowledge of being an Army officer for 8 years

So, my estimation is the only way China can take back the Island is when they use force, but this is unlikely either as well, a small 7 chain islandlet is not worth using PLA to fight over for and the PLA weakest point is their navy, without a working functioning airfield, the Chinese will NOT have air and sea superiority and from what i learn in the army, island warfare is a tricky business.

For a country have Sea and Air superiority Attack/Defence (A/D) ratio is 2.5 : 1 (Every 2.5 attacker to 1 defender)
For a country have Sea superiority (A/D) ratio is 4 : 1
For a country which have air superiority (A/D) ratio is 6 : 1
For a country habe no air or sea superiority (A/D) Ratio is 10 : 1

One need to know in an Island warfare, you limited the scope to close quarter combat and the battle will favor a lot toward the defender rather than offender, we have our share of island warfare back in the WW2 and sadly technology change a lot but Island warfare does not change a lot, it doesn't matter if we are fighting in WW2 or 22nd century, the principle is the same, you overwhelm the garrison of the Island, cut off their supply route to the mainland and cover more ground than the enemy. It's hard to achieve that if you do not have Air and Sea superiority. We did it back in WW2 with the late imperial japanese force for a ratio of 2 US attacker to 1 Japanese defender. Also, the time it left to build fortification will swing either way for either side. So if the Chinese are gonna attack, they know they need to do it now. The longer it take, the longer the Japanese will have time to train under the terrain and build fortification.

This is a Military side of the analysis of the Island situation.

On Diplomatic side, Chinese also will not attack as they are actually no facing the Japanese themselve, they are facing the US 7th Fleet. US have already said the Senkaku are under the MDT and any attack will prone a US response as to not to let our allied down, althought i do not believe US will ever commit ground troop but they will most definitely commit the 7th fleet and the Fighter/Attacker force on Okinawa and put them into action. They might even activitate the 3rd fleet (Alaskan Fleet) to help the 7th fleet and you will have about 120 warship and 3 aircraft carrier in the area. Which is a very strong deterran force given the Chinese Navy have to steam 200 nautical mile with piecemeal fleet.

Even if ground troop was put into action, I believe it's only a token force as US will want nothing to do with ground campaign in the event of full warfare.

The problem are Chinese sees all these too, the only way is to deal with the situation using diplomatic and resolution with the UN (Not UNSC as both US and China are Permanent member whatever policy for or against the Chinese will be veto regardless)
But as i said, if they would have let the UN survey team to survey the island (Japanese have already said ok) they would have found out once and for all if the Island was indeed belong to the Chinese.

When you stack all the chips together, the risk of using force are just too great and China, as usual will use his mouth other than force on this occasion, if they are intented to use force to take the island back, they would have done it already as every passing second favor Japan if war is inevitable
 
My prediction is, First, Japanese will not lose Senkaku to China as there are no pointing direction to China any more than some map that said they are there, international law require more than maps, they need to be able to survey the whole island to see if there is some form of existing government that pre-date the 1895 annexation and they must indicated that the Government are chinese to be able to restore to Chinese rule (Casus Terra nullius). Which is The chances are slim in my opinion.

But the islands are uninhabited; Japanese claiming no one lives there when they annex it doesn’t mean anything, no one a life there now, does that mean china can claim terra nullius as well? In addition the period in which they claim the island is a period (beginning of) Japanese aggression and war in Asia, there is no higher form of protest than war.

Let me answer your question on the military side of the problem first, using my knowledge of being an Army officer for 8 years

So, my estimation is the only way China can take back the Island is when they use force, but this is unlikely either as well, a small 7 chain islandlet is not worth using PLA to fight over for and the PLA weakest point is their navy, without a working functioning airfield, the Chinese will NOT have air and sea superiority and from what i learn in the army, island warfare is a tricky business.

For a country have Sea and Air superiority Attack/Defence (A/D) ratio is 2.5 : 1 (Every 2.5 attacker to 1 defender)
For a country have Sea superiority (A/D) ratio is 4 : 1
For a country which have air superiority (A/D) ratio is 6 : 1
For a country habe no air or sea superiority (A/D) Ratio is 10 : 1

One need to know in an Island warfare, you limited the scope to close quarter combat and the battle will favor a lot toward the defender rather than offender, we have our share of island warfare back in the WW2 and sadly technology change a lot but Island warfare does not change a lot, it doesn't matter if we are fighting in WW2 or 22nd century, the principle is the same, you overwhelm the garrison of the Island, cut off their supply route to the mainland and cover more ground than the enemy. It's hard to achieve that if you do not have Air and Sea superiority. We did it back in WW2 with the late imperial japanese force for a ratio of 2 US attacker to 1 Japanese defender. Also, the time it left to build fortification will swing either way for either side. So if the Chinese are gonna attack, they know they need to do it now. The longer it take, the longer the Japanese will have time to train under the terrain and build fortification.

This is a Military side of the analysis of the Island situation.

But the assumption you are making here is that any kind of island hopping will take place. Again the islands are uninhabited, there is no point to take the islands, the reason they are valuable is the resources around the islands. If japan gave up the resource rights to china, china will be happy to give up the land on the islands. Any fight over the islands will be naval in nature no one will land troops on the island, it’s pointless. Whoever control the waters around the islands control the islands themselves, and unlike what you said, time is on china’s side, the longer they wait the stronger PLAN becomes (given current trends)

On Diplomatic side, Chinese also will not attack as they are actually no facing the Japanese themselve, they are facing the US 7th Fleet. US have already said the Senkaku are under the MDT and any attack will prone a US response as to not to let our allied down, althought i do not believe US will ever commit ground troop but they will most definitely commit the 7th fleet and the Fighter/Attacker force on Okinawa and put them into action. They might even activitate the 3rd fleet (Alaskan Fleet) to help the 7th fleet and you will have about 120 warship and 3 aircraft carrier in the area. Which is a very strong deterran force given the Chinese Navy have to steam 200 nautical mile with piecemeal fleet.

Even if ground troop was put into action, I believe it's only a token force as US will want nothing to do with ground campaign in the event of full warfare.

The problem are Chinese sees all these too, the only way is to deal with the situation using diplomatic and resolution with the UN (Not UNSC as both US and China are Permanent member whatever policy for or against the Chinese will be veto regardless)
But as i said, if they would have let the UN survey team to survey the island (Japanese have already said ok) they would have found out once and for all if the Island was indeed belong to the Chinese.

When you stack all the chips together, the risk of using force are just too great and China, as usual will use his mouth other than force on this occasion, if they are intended to use force to take the island back, they would have done it already as every passing second favor Japan if war is inevitable

You are assuming the US will jump blindly into the conflict, but let’s assume the US absolutely will jump to defend the islands if china attacked, but the strategy of china is not to go and attack japan, as you know they are sending mostly civilian ships into the area, this does several things.

1. If japan attacks civilian ships china can respond with its military and the US has no grounds to intervene because it is not china who attacked japan first but the other way around. In addition by hold the US economy at stake china can give every reason for the US not to join, and china being attack first gives the US a way out.
2. the islands are far closer to china than japan, china can send many ships exhausting the JSDF by forcing them to respond to every Chinese ship. Over time this will wear them down greatly. And note china has more money, ships, man power than japan and the distance favors china.

3. Time is on china’s side they need not force a show down now but civilian ships will keep the pressure on non-the-less
4. the illusion of actual Japanese control has been smashed, Chinese ships more or less enter the area at will
 
220px-Yukio_Hatoyama.jpg


Yukio Hatoyama is okay!

But not the following extreme right winger:

ishihara-shintaro-funny-face.gif


Governors+Form+Organization+Return+Abduction+Cz9osqDWI9sm.jpg


Shintaro Ishihara

My apologies on my ignorance. I thought I heard that Shintaro Ishihara was not for America.

Apparently I was wrong. I support Yukio Hatoyama.

Yukio Hatoyama is a reasonable guy who knows what is doing. Japan improving it's relations with China is definitely the right thing to do.

lol Japan got nuked by USA, how could you possibly be friends with a country that nuked you?
 
Simple:

1) The US has been the richest country for almost a whole century

2) with the largest consumer market

3) and strongest military.

4) As a leader of WWII victors

5) Glorify by western media propaganda and

6) indeed has soft power as well

7) A democracy who indeed had a few good leaders and paternalist foreign policies until recent decades.

8) An untouched peaceful landmass literally litter with gold entices people's dreams of migrating from their crowded, dirty and dirt poor countries.

9) A great constitution supposedly guarantee personal freedom and liberty.

Indeed America was blessed and enriched by its physical isolation in which everyone else was war torn. She too was benefited greatly, because of all the above, the creams of the crops migrations.

Keep it up America! Don't let those warmongering few destroy your dream and the dreams of others who look up to you!

True, True.

USA won the Three World Wars, World War 1, World War 2, World War 3 (Cold War).

USA did not suffer significantly from the 3 World Wars.

USA did not suffer from colonialism.

But America lost World War 4 (Global War on Terrorism).

USA is still a strong country.
 
Same is with Pakistan, it is always manipulated by the external powers to be anti-India.
Don't be ridiculous.

Don't compare Pakistani-Indian relations with Chinese-Japanese relations.

This is comparing apples to wooden chairs.

They are completely different.

The thing is China and Japan have many cultural similarities, although Chinese members say their relationship has never been harmonious, which is quite unfortunate.

On the other hand, Pakistan belongs to a different civilization. Pakistan even uses a different script from India.

So Please don't compare Pakistan to India.

I too want Pakistan to have normal relations with India.

But, Pakistan is different from India on every level!

Whether its on religion (Most people in India are Hindus), language, culture, etc., you name it.
 
Hi there

I want to know how you can chop off my paragraph and reply by paragraph? I want to do that too but i don't know how...


But the islands are uninhabited; Japanese claiming no one lives there when they annex it doesn’t mean anything, no one a life there now, does that mean china can claim terra nullius as well? In addition the period in which they claim the island is a period (beginning of) Japanese aggression and war in Asia, there is no higher form of protest than war.

Why would nobody actually read my post......
You don't just need terra nullius to claim an island
According to the Law of the Sea and Law of Sovereignty, there are 4 requirement for a country to cliam sovereign of any land mass. They are:

1.) The land must be originally uninhibited (Casus Terra nullius - Case of land belong to no one)
2.) Must be within 200 nm of EEZ (except ceded by treaties)
3.) Must establish settlement
4.) Must establish physical occupation (By direct governing or annexation)

However, people are not able to see 2 other complication on the issue as well, one is japanese claim the island was a part of Ruykyu Island chain (The reason why US gave the Island back to Japan) and the Cairo Declaration did not name Senkaku Island was one of the Island the Japanese have to return to their rightful owner.

What also complicated the issue is the Japanese claim the Island was annexed 4 months before the signing of Treaty of Shimonseki, Historial report the Treaty of Shimonoseki was in April (April 17 1895) while the annexation was done in january that year (Done on January 14 1895). Hence the japanese claim the annexationis nothing related to the Treaty of Shimonseki and hence is not part of landmass ceded to Japan via war (ie not war gain) but rather just an annexation of an unhabited land. I desprise on the Japanese tactic but any lawyer will tell you that, such dated historical even will stack against the Chinese in any International Court (Either Hague or Geneva)

The only way to counter this claim in an international court is, you can proof the Chinese have establish the government LONG BEFORE (no need to be long 1 day is enough) there are Japanese Settlement, currently as Chinese refuse to let a UN team survey the Island, there are no way to know if this is a valid agrument. Hence Terra Nullius is very important in this issue, if either side cannot proof there are settlement before 1895, Japanese will win as,

A.) The island was not official ceded by Treaty of Shimonoseki
B.) First recorded Settlement are the japanese in 1895.

But the assumption you are making here is that any kind of island hopping will take place. Again the islands are uninhabited, there is no point to take the islands, the reason they are valuable is the resources around the islands. If japan gave up the resource rights to china, china will be happy to give up the land on the islands. Any fight over the islands will be naval in nature no one will land troops on the island, it’s pointless. Whoever control the waters around the islands control the islands themselves, and unlike what you said, time is on china’s side, the longer they wait the stronger PLAN becomes (given current trends)

First of all, senkaku is not an inhabited island, they were habited in the period of 1900-1910 and can be rehabit again.
Secondly, You cannot start an naval blockade without the land base support (AWACS, Fighter and so on), basically nothing better to interdict than a solid airfield, if you want to control the sea around senkaku, you need the Island itself.

Same thing we do in WW2, do we want the Island like Peleliu and Iwo Jima or Palau island? No, but occuping the island will give you naval advantage that to the surrounding area, you need the island not because of the island itself, but rather it give you control the surrounding sea lane

You are assuming the US will jump blindly into the conflict, but let’s assume the US absolutely will jump to defend the islands if china attacked, but the strategy of china is not to go and attack japan, as you know they are sending mostly civilian ships into the area, this does several things.

1. If japan attacks civilian ships china can respond with its military and the US has no grounds to intervene because it is not china who attacked japan first but the other way around. In addition by hold the US economy at stake china can give every reason for the US not to join, and china being attack first gives the US a way out.
2. the islands are far closer to china than japan, china can send many ships exhausting the JSDF by forcing them to respond to every Chinese ship. Over time this will wear them down greatly. And note china has more money, ships, man power than japan and the distance favors china.

3. Time is on china’s side they need not force a show down now but civilian ships will keep the pressure on non-the-less
4. the illusion of actual Japanese control has been smashed, Chinese ships more or less enter the area at will

There are 2 things you got it wrong, 1 is the geoproximate of the island with China the second one your preception on the Naval Blockade.

The nearest Chinese mainland port is 202nm (wenzhou city), there are closest city in between but not shorter than 180nm, where the closest Japanese port is 92nm Ishigaki Island, ryukyu island chain, Okinawa. Where the nearest Major City is Keilong, Taiwan (100nm)

Google Maps Distance Calculator

The Chinese navy need to steam almost twice the mileage than their japanese counterpart just to get in the area and the truth is Chinese is fighting a war twice as hard unless Taiwan allow the Chinese to use their Keilong port, which does not seems possible.

To your Naval Blockade knowledge.

First of all, not that you cannot fire on any civilian ship. Civilian Ship would become a legitimate target once enter the exclusion zone, depend on the flag they fly, they may be boarded, turned around or if uncooperate, fired upon. it doesn;t matter if you are a civilian ship or warship.

Secondly, All NAVAL BLOCKADE ARE LEGAL within each country EEZ. Last time i check, senkaku lies 200nm both inside China and Japan. So either blockade will be consider legal.

So, in your case, it will be Chineses can shoot at Japanese Civilian or Navy vessel while Japanese can shoot at any Chinese Vessel. None of which will consider a casus belli to each other as both country have their exclusion right (Hence the dispute) and nothing is done.

Then you need to consider 2 more things, first of which is of course what the American do in case of a blockade, guess who will they help, the japanese or will they help the Chinese? I think we both know the answer. For a modern blockade, the US Navy have train on anti blockade (Or Spear FOrmation ) which has been extensively used during the Iran-Iraq War in 1980 wher the US Warship escort Kuwait ship out of the Blockade.

What they are doing is basically put themselve ahead of the intented ship you want to protect. Make sure people cant hit your protectee. The US have a seventh fleet in Japan for a reason, the reason is this.

The second thing is international pressure. Who will the people in asia more scare of,
When chinese start shooting Japanese Naval or Civilian ship, or,
When Japanese start shooting Chinese warship or civilian ship?

I can foresee the international pressure will be on the Chinese side. Do remember Japan have more friend than China in the Asia region. And the fact that China is a big country will start an international outcry and preceived as a big vs small fight. Which would not be good for the Chinese imagine.
 
Japan's control of Diaoyu not recognized: China


China opposes Japan's so-called "actual control" of the Diaoyu Islands and the waters surrounding them, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said Wednesday.
Hong made the remarks at a daily news briefing when asked to confirm media reports alleging that China has proposed jointly managing the islands with Japan, Xinhua news agency reports.
Hong reiterated that the Diaoyu Islands and their affiliated islets have been part of China's inherent territory since ancient times and China holds indisputable sovereignty over them.
"China has repeated its position regarding the Diaoyu Islands during all consultations with Japan on the issue and stressed its strong opposition to any acts that could undermine China's territorial sovereignty," Hong said.
The Chinese government will continue to firmly safeguard its national sovereignty and territorial integrity, Hong said.

Japan's control of Diaoyu not recognized: China - The Standard
 
Japan's control of Diaoyu not recognized: China


China opposes Japan's so-called "actual control" of the Diaoyu Islands and the waters surrounding them, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said Wednesday.
Hong made the remarks at a daily news briefing when asked to confirm media reports alleging that China has proposed jointly managing the islands with Japan, Xinhua news agency reports.
Hong reiterated that the Diaoyu Islands and their affiliated islets have been part of China's inherent territory since ancient times and China holds indisputable sovereignty over them.
"China has repeated its position regarding the Diaoyu Islands during all consultations with Japan on the issue and stressed its strong opposition to any acts that could undermine China's territorial sovereignty," Hong said.
The Chinese government will continue to firmly safeguard its national sovereignty and territorial integrity, Hong said.

Japan's control of Diaoyu not recognized: China - The Standard

Good, I give the Chinese my moral support on the Diaoyu islands dispute.

Take the land back that is rightfully yours. Idiotic people who wanted to to steal land back 117 should punished severely.

Same with India, India needs to give land that doesn't belong to it such as Jammu and Kashmir, and South Tibet.
 
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