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Donald Trump is a clear winner in the Qatar/Saudi divide
ADAM GARRIE
Less than two weeks after Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia and spoke of the need for Arab unity against Iran, two of the Gulf’s most prominent and ideologically similar states are at each others throats.
While received wisdom is that the Saudi led diplomatic and economic isolation of the small and wealthy state of Qatar represents a fracture in the grand anti-Iranian coalition the United States seeks to build, practically it means something less and something more at the same time.
Donald Trump spoke of the need to create a united anti-Iranian Arab front, but more crucially he said that he was neither there to lecture them on how to do it, nor would America do it for them. In other words, Trump’s speech boiled down to “here’s what to do, now go do it”.
With Saudi and Qatar at loggerheads and with many other Arab states that have hated Qatar’s sponsorship of terrorism for actual reasons (as opposed to the hypocritical and almost comical duplicity from Saudi), any attempt at building this united front has been crushed under the weight of regional economic rivalries which have been augmented by Qatar’s attempts at some sort of rapprochement with Iran.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry is staffed by deeply intelligent people, something which cannot be said for most Gulf states. Iran knows that Qatar has not suddenly developed an affinity for Iran, but rather, they see Iran as a way of putting a stick in the proverbial Saudi bicycle wheel.
Where Saudi Arabia has a decent sized but poorly trained and undisciplined armed forces, Qatar’s armed forces are so small they are numerically negligible. In the event of an actual war, both countries would have to rely heavily on Pakistani mercenaries. Pakistan’s refusal to break off ties with Qatar is a demonstrable failure for Saudi in its attempt to build a wider coalition against its neighbour.
But where does Donald Trump fit in to this? Donald Trump throughout his campaign had been critical of US involvement in the Middle East. Although his policies as President have often contradicted these sentiments, his initial feelings still often feature in his speeches.
A key section of his speech in Saudi Arabia last month is as follows,
“This groundbreaking new centre represents a clear declaration that Muslim-majority countries must take the lead in combating radicalisation, and I want to express our gratitude to King Salman for this strong demonstration of leadership.
I have had the pleasure of welcoming several of the leaders present today to the White House, and I look forward to working with all of you.
America is a sovereign nation and our first priority is always the safety and security of our citizens. We are not here to lecture—we are not here to tell other people how to live, what to do, who to be, or how to worship. Instead, we are here to offer partnership — based on shared interests and values — to pursue a better future for us all”.
Trump in other words threw down the gauntlet for Arab states to take America’s post-1979 anti-Iranian policies and run with them. The current crisis over Qatar is a manifest sign of that policy’s failure.
And why might Trump be privately happy about that?
Few in America, even in the deep state seriously believe that US involvement in a war with Iran would be a good thing. They are willing to talk tough on Iran, lie about Iran to the hilt and sanction Iran but when it comes to direct conflict, every President from Jimmy Carter up through Donald Trump has yet to raise a realistic finger against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Trump, in spite of his own anti-Iranian rhetoric is if anything still far less interventionist than either Bush or Obama and even they didn’t go after Iran. If Saudi Arabia was ever so foolish as to provoke a war with Iran, America would be forced to make the uncomfortable decision of refraining from a fight that many at least at the level of perverse dreams seek to fight.
>Now, an all ready insane idea of Saudi launching a war against Iran is even less likely as two major Arab Gulf powers are themselves arguing over Iran in public. Trump has said what he ‘needed’ to say and can now wash his hands of further attempts at forcing the Arab world to do what it has always been incapable of doing.
Increasingly, it has become apparent that Trump sees international relations in terms of monetary benefit and personal status, but critically now ideology. He enjoyed being treated by a king in Saudi and getting paid for it, he enjoyed being lauded endlessly by the Likud government in Israel and he distinctly did not enjoy his trip to Europe where NATO and G7 leaders treated him far less respectfully than did Saudi or Israel and even more importantly, they didn’t pay up in respect of NATO.
Donald Trump got the two things he wanted from the Gulf: money and respect. While Obama may have been making urgent phone calls at such a time, Trump will probably leave matters to civil servants in the State Department. His mind is more on golf than on the Gulf.
http://theduran.com/donald-trump-is-a-clear-winner-in-the-qatarsaudi-divide/
India to weather Qatar storm now
Suhasini Haidar, June 6, 2017
By severing ties with Qatar, the Saudi-led coalition has declared a diplomatic war with the Emirate. This will not just strain ties within the Gulf, but will also impact other countries that have close ties in the region. While most analysts say the move will not impact India immediately, there will be repercussions if the tensions continue and differences are not resolved.
Political ties in the region
Tensions have been rising between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which is a part of the Islamic Military Alliance, as well as part of the Saudi coalition taking part in the Yemen intervention, for some time now. While the reasons given for the decision are ostensibly Qatar’s support to “regional terror” and the Muslim Brotherhood, which challenges the Saudi monarchy as well as the regimes in many countries in the Gulf, the immediate trigger appears to be the Qatari Emir Al-Thani’s ties with Iran, and his decision to take a phone call from Iranian President Rouhani in the end of May.
In the past few days, there has been an increased call from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), as well as UAE, Bahrain and other countries for Qatar to proclaim “which side it is on.”
India has traditionally stayed out of the “Shi’a-Sunni”, “Arab-Persian” or “Wahabbi-Salafi” divides, and maintained good ties with all, but a further fragmenting West Asia will require even more deft diplomacy to keep these ties untouched by the tensions.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Qatar and received Emir Al-Thani in 2016 and has also forged very close strategic partnerships with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which are crucial to his outreach in the region.
Trade and manpower
India sources more than half of its energy import needs from countries in the Persian Gulf. Six million Indians live and work in West Asia and they sent home about $63 billion last year.
Energy imports may not be affected immediately, unless the Gulf countries follow through with sanctions. However, as in the case of Yemen, Libya, Lebanon and other countries, any tensions in the region have an immediate impact on thousands of Indian workers.
In Qatar in particular, there are 6,00,000 Indian workers, many of them on projects related to the 2022 FIFA world cup. In addition, India has significant trade ties with the country (Qatar is India’s 19th biggest trading partner with about $9bn in trade), although its trade ties are much stronger with the UAE and the KSA (who rank 3rd and 4th respectively, with about $49 billion and $26 billion, according to Commerce Ministry figures in 2015). After Mr. Modi’s visits in the region, India had hoped for considerable investments from both the UAE and Qatar’s Sovereign Wealth Funds.
Cooperation in fighting terror
The KSA and the UAE are important partners for India on counter-terrorism cooperation and intelligence sharing. Yet it can’t be denied that together with Qatar, these countries have traditionally supported extremist groups that now control parts of Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq.
The KSA, the UAE and Pakistan were the only countries to support the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, and the Qatari capital hosts the Taliban’s office to enable it to conduct dialogue, which was supported by the other Gulf countries. It remains to be seen how the latest schism will affect the global war on terrorism.
Air travel
Besides cutting off diplomatic ties, the Saudi coalition has also decided to cancel Qatar Airways flights to their countries. This will affect Indian passengers who hoped to use Doha as a hub to get to other destinations in the Gulf.
At present, Qatar Airways flies about 24,000 passengers a week from India, ranking just behind the UAE’s Emirates and Eithad Airways. In recent months, Qatar Airways has confirmed that it wants to set up a fully-owned subsidiary domestic airline in India, for which it is applying for clearances. It is unclear how those plans will be affected, if at all with the latest developments.
http://southasianmonitor.com/2017/06/06/india-weather-qatar-storm-now/
ADAM GARRIE
Less than two weeks after Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia and spoke of the need for Arab unity against Iran, two of the Gulf’s most prominent and ideologically similar states are at each others throats.
While received wisdom is that the Saudi led diplomatic and economic isolation of the small and wealthy state of Qatar represents a fracture in the grand anti-Iranian coalition the United States seeks to build, practically it means something less and something more at the same time.
Donald Trump spoke of the need to create a united anti-Iranian Arab front, but more crucially he said that he was neither there to lecture them on how to do it, nor would America do it for them. In other words, Trump’s speech boiled down to “here’s what to do, now go do it”.
With Saudi and Qatar at loggerheads and with many other Arab states that have hated Qatar’s sponsorship of terrorism for actual reasons (as opposed to the hypocritical and almost comical duplicity from Saudi), any attempt at building this united front has been crushed under the weight of regional economic rivalries which have been augmented by Qatar’s attempts at some sort of rapprochement with Iran.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry is staffed by deeply intelligent people, something which cannot be said for most Gulf states. Iran knows that Qatar has not suddenly developed an affinity for Iran, but rather, they see Iran as a way of putting a stick in the proverbial Saudi bicycle wheel.
Where Saudi Arabia has a decent sized but poorly trained and undisciplined armed forces, Qatar’s armed forces are so small they are numerically negligible. In the event of an actual war, both countries would have to rely heavily on Pakistani mercenaries. Pakistan’s refusal to break off ties with Qatar is a demonstrable failure for Saudi in its attempt to build a wider coalition against its neighbour.
But where does Donald Trump fit in to this? Donald Trump throughout his campaign had been critical of US involvement in the Middle East. Although his policies as President have often contradicted these sentiments, his initial feelings still often feature in his speeches.
A key section of his speech in Saudi Arabia last month is as follows,
“This groundbreaking new centre represents a clear declaration that Muslim-majority countries must take the lead in combating radicalisation, and I want to express our gratitude to King Salman for this strong demonstration of leadership.
I have had the pleasure of welcoming several of the leaders present today to the White House, and I look forward to working with all of you.
America is a sovereign nation and our first priority is always the safety and security of our citizens. We are not here to lecture—we are not here to tell other people how to live, what to do, who to be, or how to worship. Instead, we are here to offer partnership — based on shared interests and values — to pursue a better future for us all”.
Trump in other words threw down the gauntlet for Arab states to take America’s post-1979 anti-Iranian policies and run with them. The current crisis over Qatar is a manifest sign of that policy’s failure.
And why might Trump be privately happy about that?
Few in America, even in the deep state seriously believe that US involvement in a war with Iran would be a good thing. They are willing to talk tough on Iran, lie about Iran to the hilt and sanction Iran but when it comes to direct conflict, every President from Jimmy Carter up through Donald Trump has yet to raise a realistic finger against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Trump, in spite of his own anti-Iranian rhetoric is if anything still far less interventionist than either Bush or Obama and even they didn’t go after Iran. If Saudi Arabia was ever so foolish as to provoke a war with Iran, America would be forced to make the uncomfortable decision of refraining from a fight that many at least at the level of perverse dreams seek to fight.
>Now, an all ready insane idea of Saudi launching a war against Iran is even less likely as two major Arab Gulf powers are themselves arguing over Iran in public. Trump has said what he ‘needed’ to say and can now wash his hands of further attempts at forcing the Arab world to do what it has always been incapable of doing.
Increasingly, it has become apparent that Trump sees international relations in terms of monetary benefit and personal status, but critically now ideology. He enjoyed being treated by a king in Saudi and getting paid for it, he enjoyed being lauded endlessly by the Likud government in Israel and he distinctly did not enjoy his trip to Europe where NATO and G7 leaders treated him far less respectfully than did Saudi or Israel and even more importantly, they didn’t pay up in respect of NATO.
Donald Trump got the two things he wanted from the Gulf: money and respect. While Obama may have been making urgent phone calls at such a time, Trump will probably leave matters to civil servants in the State Department. His mind is more on golf than on the Gulf.
http://theduran.com/donald-trump-is-a-clear-winner-in-the-qatarsaudi-divide/
India to weather Qatar storm now
Suhasini Haidar, June 6, 2017
By severing ties with Qatar, the Saudi-led coalition has declared a diplomatic war with the Emirate. This will not just strain ties within the Gulf, but will also impact other countries that have close ties in the region. While most analysts say the move will not impact India immediately, there will be repercussions if the tensions continue and differences are not resolved.
Political ties in the region
Tensions have been rising between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which is a part of the Islamic Military Alliance, as well as part of the Saudi coalition taking part in the Yemen intervention, for some time now. While the reasons given for the decision are ostensibly Qatar’s support to “regional terror” and the Muslim Brotherhood, which challenges the Saudi monarchy as well as the regimes in many countries in the Gulf, the immediate trigger appears to be the Qatari Emir Al-Thani’s ties with Iran, and his decision to take a phone call from Iranian President Rouhani in the end of May.
In the past few days, there has been an increased call from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), as well as UAE, Bahrain and other countries for Qatar to proclaim “which side it is on.”
India has traditionally stayed out of the “Shi’a-Sunni”, “Arab-Persian” or “Wahabbi-Salafi” divides, and maintained good ties with all, but a further fragmenting West Asia will require even more deft diplomacy to keep these ties untouched by the tensions.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Qatar and received Emir Al-Thani in 2016 and has also forged very close strategic partnerships with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which are crucial to his outreach in the region.
Trade and manpower
India sources more than half of its energy import needs from countries in the Persian Gulf. Six million Indians live and work in West Asia and they sent home about $63 billion last year.
Energy imports may not be affected immediately, unless the Gulf countries follow through with sanctions. However, as in the case of Yemen, Libya, Lebanon and other countries, any tensions in the region have an immediate impact on thousands of Indian workers.
In Qatar in particular, there are 6,00,000 Indian workers, many of them on projects related to the 2022 FIFA world cup. In addition, India has significant trade ties with the country (Qatar is India’s 19th biggest trading partner with about $9bn in trade), although its trade ties are much stronger with the UAE and the KSA (who rank 3rd and 4th respectively, with about $49 billion and $26 billion, according to Commerce Ministry figures in 2015). After Mr. Modi’s visits in the region, India had hoped for considerable investments from both the UAE and Qatar’s Sovereign Wealth Funds.
Cooperation in fighting terror
The KSA and the UAE are important partners for India on counter-terrorism cooperation and intelligence sharing. Yet it can’t be denied that together with Qatar, these countries have traditionally supported extremist groups that now control parts of Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq.
The KSA, the UAE and Pakistan were the only countries to support the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, and the Qatari capital hosts the Taliban’s office to enable it to conduct dialogue, which was supported by the other Gulf countries. It remains to be seen how the latest schism will affect the global war on terrorism.
Air travel
Besides cutting off diplomatic ties, the Saudi coalition has also decided to cancel Qatar Airways flights to their countries. This will affect Indian passengers who hoped to use Doha as a hub to get to other destinations in the Gulf.
At present, Qatar Airways flies about 24,000 passengers a week from India, ranking just behind the UAE’s Emirates and Eithad Airways. In recent months, Qatar Airways has confirmed that it wants to set up a fully-owned subsidiary domestic airline in India, for which it is applying for clearances. It is unclear how those plans will be affected, if at all with the latest developments.
http://southasianmonitor.com/2017/06/06/india-weather-qatar-storm-now/
