SAUDI ARABIA HAS ALREADY LOST IN YEMEN

[Ceylal]

Three weeks after the start of the air campaign of the coalition formed under the auspices of Saudi Arabia, the showdown continues in Yemen. Air raids have so far prevented a reversal of the balance of power on the ground. After the refusal Friday, Pakistan to send troops and military equipment to reinforce its Saudi ally, Riyadh confirmed yesterday the formation of a committee with Egypt to take "large" joint military exercises in the Saudi kingdom. It would thus seem that the political benefits of Saudi Arabia remain subordinate to the military gains. In this sense, the resolution adopted Tuesday night in the Security Council imposing arms embargo against Houthi rebels aim to promote a change in the configuration of power relations in the field. However, skepticism remains as to the expected results. Majed Nehme, Director of the Africa / Asia magazine and author of many books around geopolitical issues, gives his analysis of the situation. Returning to the episode of the last days, Mr. Nehme considers that the refusal of Pakistan "will bring Riyadh to understand that everything is not redeemable for cash." Indeed, the Saudi requirement of the provision of troops composed exclusively Sunni military constituted a threat to the unity of the Pakistani army and caused serious consequences internally in a country where the situation is extremely inter tense. According to him, the position of Pakistan, historic ally of Saudi but now enjoys greater flexibility, "will push the sages of the kingdom to make their voices heard and the strategy of ultras" carried by the new defense minister Mohammed bin Salman and indéboulonable Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal. He believes that "a dramatic change within the ruling family is not excluded." According to him, therefore, the Pakistani denial appears to undermine the Saudi position by starting the consistency of the coalition.

Joint exercises no effect on the ground

The organization of joint exercises is closer, according to Majed Nehme, in a show of force without consequences on the ground. It is not intended to create an offensive but can be a deterrent against attack on Saudi territory, a scenario that seems nevertheless excluded. "This gesture is actually intended to improve the conditions for a political solution that would allow the Saudis to save face."According to him, even the resolution adopted by the Security Council providing an embargo on military equipment delivered to the rebels not to upset the situation in that Houthi have a large enough arms to hold stocks long conflict for several months .


In addition, the air campaign against a guerrilla movement with a popular base has limited effects and any developments in the balance of power on the ground imply a land campaign. But Mr. Nehme recalls that "the Egyptian army has neither the means nor the will. She has other problems to deal particularly in Sinai where she barely overcome jihadist groups. An attack would be suicidal.And with a few ground incursions, I do not see how a Saudi army, over-equipped certainly, but inexperienced, could face a guerrilla war that has already inflicted heavy losses on the army in 2009 ". That year, the Houthi rebels led an incursion into Arabia.

Negotiated solution

Could the political realism take the form of the Turkish proposal to pose as mediator and the Iranian crisis plan. For Majed Nehme, the search for a compromise to rebalance the balance of power and preserve the Saudi influence, but it would still be less than a defeat for Riyadh. "Saudi Arabia has already lost the game. The last resolution of the Security Council allows it to engage in negotiations with Houthi and the army of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh.There will inevitably be a sharing of power between the various warring factions, but the lion's share antisaoudien return to camp. The Americans are pushing in this direction because a continuation of the conflict will strengthen Al-Qaeda, he says. This compromise should lead to comprehensive negotiations with Iran that will curb the Saudi support to forces hostile to the Syrian regime.»

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« L’Arabie saoudite a déjà perdu la partie » au Yémen - Lina KENNOUCHE - L'Orient-Le Jour