Saudi Arabia Has a Plan B to Try to Stop Iran’s Economic Rise

[posedion]

Wahhabi Influence and power is on terminal decline

 

[bozorgmehr]

By saying that American has economic problems I did not mean that their economy is about to collapse or we shouldn't have relations with the other nations what I meant is simple for example we have failed to come up with a good plan for the future of our country for several decades and as it seems this vicious cycles is gonna get repeated over and over in the future ...

Shah had the best relations with America and Israel in fact he was their best ally in the region .. once oil prices rose due to Arab-Israel war back in 1974 he thought that he was standing before the gate of civilization and should build the country by the petrodollars he earned but unfortunately he didn't realized that it's a two edged blade therefore didn't listen to economists and even called them idiots , in fact to bring his dreams into the reality he needed Rial to build schools , hospitals roads etc. within the country what he didn't have he just had $ hence he injected it into the market and let merchants to import goods in exchange of Rial what happened at the end was nothing by high inflation + rising unemployment rate + increase in money stock .... our shops and market were full of foreign goods and commodities resulted in dutch disease .... Iranian workers lost their jobs , production stopped which means recession + high inflation due to money stock .... it was one the main reasons that ignited 1979 revolution ....
The same happened after Iran-Iraq war , the president of the time "Akbar Hashemi" called himself "Sardar Sazandegi" .... the same policy were taken resulted in inflation rate of 50% and unemployment .... not to mentioned riots taken place in Khorasan province and some people were killed ...
Again back in 2007 Ahmadnejad did the same , he couldn't resist when oil prices jumped to 140 $ per barrel and adopted populist policies ... results were as same as two previous aforementioned situations .... inflation rate of 45% ...

See? we don't learn and repeat our mistakes over and over .....
I am not saying that we should produce everything inside the country on the contrary I am saying it's not logical to do so .... we have comparative advantages in some fields like tourism and we should work on them but when we've failed to plan a scientific reasoned long lasting economic strategy to boost our economy indexes for several decades having ties with other countries just could grease wheels of our economy while the engine's suffocated .... ....

Thanks for your patient and reasoned reply, Raptor jan. The US economy is by no means perfect. But it's in my opinion one the best managed in the world. But that's not very true either. Because it's also one of the least managed economies in the world. In other words, the government pretty much keeps out of it. It's a free flowing system with very little advance planning, per se. The conventional wisdom in the US is that governments are by definition inept and incompetent at running economies, and they should stay away from it to the extent possible. And they do!

So if it's not the government's manipulation, micromanagement and planning, then what is it that makes the American economy the most powerful in the world? What is it that makes it such well oiled steamroller? That's where things get complicated and very intangible from an Iranian's point of view. It's their democracy that allows them to determine their governemnt according to their priorities. It's their rule of law that enables them to enact rational laws and create a level playing field for everybody. It's their personal freedoms that allow them to live with and express their differences and as a result come up with new ideas to solve old problems. It's their free press that airs grievances and problems and makes things like nepotism and corruption more prone to being detected...

So why do I keep talking about the American system? Just to show that the reasons for their success are structural and systemic. And so are the reasons for our failures. The problem is not having relations with the US or not. The problem is with us. It's with how we do thing. It is with your system... That's why different faces come and go, but the problems remain the same. Unless we have a deeper structural evolution, not much is likely to change...

 

[Indus Pakistan]

@bozorgmehr There is no evidence to suggest that democracy and economic link. China has and is heading to be a hyperpower. Democracy had nothing to do with it. US economy is not any more "better" than say German economy. what places US above others is the (i) massive natural resources wedded with (ii) highly educated (iii) huge population.

(ii) Also is applicable to Italy, Germany, Finland, Japan, South Korea, Norway, UK, Ireland, Singapore etc but very few countries see the marriage of (i),(ii) and (iii). For instance Norway has (i) massive natural resources (ii) highly educated but lacks (iii) huge population.

Saudia Arabia seems to (i) massive natural resources (although it is very one dimensional with only oil) but lacks with (ii) and (iii).

The US is in top five nations in having oil, gas, coal, timber, copper and gold and water. We all know about the vast praire farmlands of US that produce abundant food staples. With differant climate zones almost all type of agriculture is present. from cold to tropical. From mineral to agriculture US figures in top 5 always. That is largely natures blessing.

In addition it is strategically located with access to two major oceans. With all that going for you I don't think you can go wrong.

 

[raptor22]

Thanks for your patient and reasoned reply, Raptor jan. The US economy is by no means perfect. But it's in my opinion one the best managed in the world. But that's not very true either. Because it's also one of the least managed economies in the world. In other words, the government pretty much keeps out of it. It's a free flowing system with very little advance planning, per se. The conventional wisdom in the US is that governments are by definition inept and incompetent at running economies, and they should stay away from it to the extent possible. And they do!

So if it's not the government's manipulation, micromanagement and planning, then what is it that makes the American economy the most powerful in the world? What is it that makes it such well oiled steamroller? That's where things get complicated and very intangible from an Iranian's point of view. It's their democracy that allows them to determine their governemnt according to their priorities. It's their rule of law that enables them to enact rational laws and create a level playing field for everybody. It's their personal freedoms that allow them to live with and express their differences and as a result come up with new ideas to solve old problems. It's their free press that airs grievances and problems and makes things like nepotism and corruption more prone to being detected...

So why do I keep talking about the American system? Just to show that the reasons for their success are structural and systemic. And so are the reasons for our failures. The problem is not having relations with the US or not. The problem is with us. It's with how we do thing. It is with your system... That's why different faces come and go, but the problems remain the same. Unless we have a deeper structural evolution, not much is likely to change...

As you mentioned and I agree developed economies have managed to marginalize governments control over the economy even I've seen some plans to private police services in the UK ... moreover again I agree up with you on having a system or structural which we do lack in our own country ... in non democratic countries individuals have a leading role in all aspects of the society from the culture to politics and even people personal lives (like a party) let alone economy which is diffidently wrong whilst in more advanced and free countries the system would be the source of the changes ,,, so by come and gone of different faces the policies would remain intact ....

As I said if we don't come up with a scientific reasoned long lasting economic strategy base upon wisdom and our comparative advantages in a free atmosphere that all voices would be heard the failure would continue ....

 

[Arminkh]

@bozorgmehr There is no evidence to suggest that democracy and economic link. China has and is heading to be a hyperpower. Democracy had nothing to do with it. US economy is not any more "better" than say German economy. what places US above others is the (i) massive natural resources wedded with (ii) highly educated (iii) huge population.

(ii) Also is applicable to Italy, Germany, Finland, Japan, South Korea, Norway, UK, Ireland, Singapore etc but very few countries see the marriage of (i),(ii) and (iii). For instance Norway has (i) massive natural resources (ii) highly educated but lacks (iii) huge population.

Saudia Arabia seems to (i) massive natural resources (although it is very one dimensional with only oil) but lacks with (ii) and (iii).

The US is in top five nations in having oil, gas, coal, timber, copper and gold and water. We all know about the vast praire farmlands of US that produce abundant food staples. With differant climate zones almost all type of agriculture is present. from cold to tropical. From mineral to agriculture US figures in top 5 always. That is largely natures blessing.

In addition it is strategically located with access to two major oceans. With all that going for you I don't think you can go wrong.

Your analysis is very accurate and I do agree: US possession of natural resources (most importantly water which helps sustain a large population) together with large population has had a big share in its success. But we need to recognize that Soviet Union and now Russia have access to the exact same resources and even more. Their population is not in par with USA but it is at least equal to that of Germany. So Russia should at least be as prosperous economically as Germany. But it is not.

True democracy does have a huge effect on economic growth. However, the question is what is a true democratic state? I'd like to think it is a state where each single individual takes ownership and pride in the future of his society and feels safe and in control. It can be Islamic, Christian or Secular. If we agree that the main driver of economic growth of US is individual ambition of masterminds like Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Henry Ford, Steve jobs and etc (can you imagine US economy without the achievements of those people?), then my definition of a democratic state becomes important. US is able to provide what I mentioned for its citizens. Not because it is a superpower, it was doing this long before it became a super power. It became a superpower because of it and it has to do with its governance system.

Yes, China is progressing at an commendable speed. But, it has not been able to provide that safe heaven for its citizens. Here in Canada, I see a lot of Wealthy Chinese people that have immigrated to Canada as soon as they were wealthy enough to do so or have maintained their businesses in the motherland but have sent their families here. That was surprising at least to me. So I asked them, why would you leave your country when it is the cradle of economic growth? And their answer was lack of confidence in what their government will do next. They were not sure if the trend of economic liberalization will continue or at some point the government will just stop it and confiscate the wealth of the business owners. (Ironically the pollution and crowded cities are none of their concern) They are willing to immigrate to a country like Canada that has a much weaker economy compared to that of China but is democratic and thus, predictable and many of them bring their business ingenious with them.

Do you know how many American immigrants I have seen here during this time? Only two, none of them business owners. They are here because their wives are Canadian.

Which one do you think can sustain its economic supremacy longer? The country that loses its entrepreneurs as soon as they become worthy of that name or the one that is absorbing entrepreneurs from the rest of the world like a magnet?

 

[bozorgmehr]

@bozorgmehr There is no evidence to suggest that democracy and economic link. China has and is heading to be a hyperpower. Democracy had nothing to do with it. US economy is not any more "better" than say German economy. what places US above others is the (i) massive natural resources wedded with (ii) highly educated (iii) huge population.

(ii) Also is applicable to Italy, Germany, Finland, Japan, South Korea, Norway, UK, Ireland, Singapore etc but very few countries see the marriage of (i),(ii) and (iii). For instance Norway has (i) massive natural resources (ii) highly educated but lacks (iii) huge population.

Saudia Arabia seems to (i) massive natural resources (although it is very one dimensional with only oil) but lacks with (ii) and (iii).

The US is in top five nations in having oil, gas, coal, timber, copper and gold and water. We all know about the vast praire farmlands of US that produce abundant food staples. With differant climate zones almost all type of agriculture is present. from cold to tropical. From mineral to agriculture US figures in top 5 always. That is largely natures blessing.

In addition it is strategically located with access to two major oceans. With all that going for you I don't think you can go wrong.

My dear, it depends on what you accept as evidence. Does Europe vs middle east and Africa count? How about US vs the Soviet Union? Or Japan vs the rest of Asia? Taiwan vs Vietnam? Sout Korea vs the North? West Germany, East Germany? Anywhere you look, it's almost a rule that democracies do better than non-democracies. Is that a coincidence in your opinion, or do you see a trend there?

Regarding China, I'm not such a great believer in the China Model. China is the most populous country in the world. They have to feed their people somehow. Almost no matter what they do, they will be one of the biggest economies in world. In fact China has been one of the biggest economies in the world since ancient times. Recently, their economy has been growing and they have been on the rise. But even after 2 decades of uninterrupted growth, their GDP per Capita still stands at 6,807.43 USD (2013) vs 53,041.98 USD ‎(2013) for the US. That's almost 8 times less than the US. So China has got a loooong loong way to go get anywhere even in the neighbourhood of he US. The China model is no where near a stable product. It will have to molt a couple of more times before it moves into the next phase. And those are dangerous periods, fraught with instability.

As far as massive natural resources go, there's no denying that they exist. But if that were the determinant, at 1/10 of the population, with a bigger country than the US and plenty of access to oil, gas, timber and hydro power (which the US has nowhere near the same extent of), you would expect Canada to do much better. But they don't! Their per capita GDP is actually lower than the US.

And the same argument goes for the other factors you mentioned. What you see is not a fluke or an accident of nature. It's the result of the willful acts of a people and a very efficient 'system' that empowers them to achieve what they want. A hunderd odd years ago, Mexico had larger territories than the US. But when it came time and the two systems went head-to-head, there was absolutely no contest. The US took some of the biggest current US states from Mexico, including Texas, California, Arizona, Nevada, etc... But before that they had bought another huge chunk of land from France, called the Louisiana territories. And they followed up with the purchase of Alaska from imperial Russia. So what you see today was very much planned out and premeditated, as opposed to say Canada.

And so it is with their population. To this day, despite their existing size, the US is keeping pace with Canada in their immigration numbers and population growth.

So all the factors you mentioned above are largely a credit and result of their system and economic power, not the cause of it. It's a system that invites participation and promotes empowerment and growth, like few others that I know of.

 

[Faravahar]

Even the westerners have started to laugh at these soodis and their fantasies. These people could not even get off and on their camels without western intervention, they plan to stop Iran on their own?