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Safety – IAF Records Lowest Ever Accident Rate

indian_foxhound

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Accurate evaluation of risks present and their
effective management appears to be paying
dividends. The lowest ever accident rate of 0.22
achieved by the IAF last year is comparable to the
most advanced air forces of the world. Aerospace safety mission-statement of the Indian
Air Force (IAF) has been to “ensure operational
capability by conserving human and material
resources through prevention of aircraft
accidents”. The IAF believes that loss of aircraft
through accidents, undermines operational capability and hence the focus is on reducing the
accident rate. The ‘aircraft accident rate’ is
calculated as number of accidents resulting in loss
of an aircraft per 10,000 hours of flying. It has
been declining steadily over the years. The
lowest accident rate of 0.35 was last achieved in the financial year 2006-07. Human error, either
by the operator or support service provider, and
technical defects have been the major reason
behind accidents in the IAF. In-depth analysis of the problem and focused
corrective measures were initiated in the last one
year in an effort to bring down the accident rate
significantly. These included strengthening of
initial basic training, review of flying training
syllabi, especially of inexperienced air crew, enhanced aircraft and system serviceability
through better resource management as also
renewed focus on technical supervision and
maintenance practices. The accident rate
achieved in the financial year 2012-13 was 0.22,
the lowest ever recorded. The aircraft inventory as well as support
equipment held by the IAF is spread over a wide
technology spectrum. The IAF continues to
operate old low technology aircraft such as the
MiG-21, MiG-27, HJT-16 Kiran, etc. Product support
by the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) is often a major constraint. The older machines
are prone to technical defects and system failures.
The problem is countered by a slew of measures
such as strengthening of training, close
monitoring of maintenance activities, stringent
quality control during repair and overhaul at base repair depots and the Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd
(HAL). Technical defects have also been on the rise on
the newer fleets such as the Jaguar and Mirage
2000. Amalgamation of modern technology with
such platforms is feasible and a number of
upgradation programmes on these fleets are
under way to enhance the operational capability as well as improve safety and maintainability.
With the phasing out of ageing fleets and new
inductions yet to fructify, the IAF is facing
reducing numbers. Under such circumstances,
higher fleet serviceability will not only offset the
reduced strength of aircraft, but also more importantly, ensure adequate flying for the
aircrew. This is possible only through timely
provisioning of spares, especially those procured
from foreign sources. Increased flying training
for the aircrew will translate into reduced human
error accidents and better operational preparedness of the IAF. Preserving and strengthening training resources
is another focus area for the IAF. Untimely
retirement of the HPT-32, delay in the availability
of the intermediate jet trainer, repeated
extensions of life for the ageing Kiran fleet and
the need to increase intake of pilots to keep pace with new inductions, especially multi-pilot
fighters such as Su-30MKI, are inclined to increase
pressure on training resources. Fast track
induction of Pilatus PC-7 and accretion of Hawk
AJT along with embedded simulators are steps in
the right direction. Stringent compliance to training standards at various stages of flying
training as well as gradual progression of the
trainees to higher performance aircraft are
regarded essential to reduce accidents due to
human error. Development of training
infrastructure to cater to future induction of aircraft and systems as part of long-term
induction perspective plan is being pursued
expeditiously. With the induction of state-of-the-art equipment
and phasing-out of ageing fleets, a downward
trend in incidents of technical defects can be
expected. Modern technology demands stringent
quality control at production as well as overhaul
stages to reduce technical defects. Rigorous quality assurance standards and specifications as
laid down by the OEM have to be ensured during
licensed production. To reduce accidents on
account of technical defects, the IAF has initiated
joint quality audits along with HAL on the
different fleets. Shortcomings in production support infrastructure, availability of skilled
manpower, quality control, delay in setting up of
ROH facilities, lack of robust research and
development (R&D), etc do get highlighted. The IAF is striving hard to achieve a high degree
of safety while meeting the organisational
objectives. The issues related to flight safety are
being monitored at the level of the Chief of the
Air Staff himself. Accurate evaluation of risks
present and their effective management appears to be paying dividends. The lowest ever accident
rate of 0.22 achieved by the IAF last year is
comparable to the most advanced air forces of
the world.

http://idrw.org/?p=21394
 
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First, WOW ... Great News !!!!

Second, .. so it's 0.22 aircrafts per 10,000 hours of flying.

How much hours does a pilot fly in his lifetime?

How much hours does an aircraft fly in its lifetime?
 
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First, WOW ... Great News !!!!

Second, .. so it's 0.22 aircrafts per 10,000 hours of flying.

I have a question, how many hours of flying does a fighter pilot do during his entire lifetime ?

Say, if it were 1000 hours... the chance that his plane would crash during his liftime is 0.022, i.e. 2.2%

That means, 1 in 50 pilots will be a plance crash in their lifetime: They may eject out of get killed. (hence, successful ejection rate is another thing important).

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Secondly, how much hours does an aircraft fly during lifetime?

If it were 100,000 hours .... there is a 2.2% chance that any aircraft will crash during its lifetime... i.e. 1 in every 50 planes will crash.

--

I just put up sample numbers.... can some one fill in real numbers: How much hours does a pilot fly in the lifetime, and how much hours does an aircraft fly in its lifetime????

@Abingdonboy please :)
 
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whe one dosnt fly their old / vintage aircraft the safety goes up automatically - anyway's this is good news for IAF

Mig-21s are still the most numerous aircraft in the IAF, and by a long way (264 of them). So it's unlikely that the IAF doesn't fly the vintage stuff. Your point may be valid about the mig-27s though; for lack of spares, they spend most of their time grounded.
 
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whe one dosnt fly their old / vintage aircraft the safety goes up automatically - anyway's this is good news for IAF

Exactly right- if you stop flying the most crash-prone a/c then naturally your crash rate will come done drastically. The good news for the IAF is that this short-term/emergency fix is a precursor to a complete overhaul of the IAF's fleet (combat, training, transport). The IAF aren't just putting a band-aid over a broken bone they are addressing the fundamental weaknesses of their fleet and investing heavily to correct them all.

@3Idiots @indian_foxhound


AFAIK there is no info available to the public on this front. But IIRC I heard MKI pilots log 250-300 flight hours a year with 100 of these being conducted on the full-flight ground simulator. This figure is actually very high for the fast jet community and I know many Western AFs have been surprised at how much hours IAF pilots do. Going hand in hand with this is cost, as a result of the high number of flight hours the IAF also has one of the highest training budgets of any AF on the planet, leaving aside the $1.1-1.3 MN USD figure it takes to train a IAF pilot right from basic to OCU and then SQD service, the subsequent annual training costs 100,000s- 1,000,000s per pilot per year. Consider the MKI costs ~$12-14,000 USD per flight hour!


So for a career-total figure I am unsure but most IAF pilots who serve their full commissions of 10-15 years are going to be retiring with high 1000s of clocked up flight hours.


Instructors and TACDE pilots will be retiring with many,many more.
 
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@3Idiots @indian_foxhound


AFAIK there is no info available to the public on this front. But IIRC I heard MKI pilots log 250-300 flight hours a year with 100 of these being conducted on the full-flight ground simulator. This figure is actually very high for the fast jet community and I know many Western AFs have been surprised at how much hours IAF pilots do. Going hand in hand with this is cost, as a result of the high number of flight hours the IAF also has one of the highest training budgets of any AF on the planet, leaving aside the $1.1-1.3 MN USD figure it takes to train a IAF pilot right from basic to OCU and then SQD service, the subsequent annual training costs 100,000s- 1,000,000s per pilot per year. Consider the MKI costs ~$12-14,000 USD per flight hour!


So for a career-total figure I am unsure but most IAF pilots who serve their full commissions of 10-15 years are going to be retiring with high 1000s of clocked up flight hours.


Instructors and TACDE pilots will be retiring with many,many more.

That bit sounds dubious. The Rafale's per hour flight cost is 16,500 dollars, according to multiple sources, including Jane's. The MKI's has to be much higher, because it is a much bigger and heavier aircraft, and slightly older technology than Rafale. The very reason for going for an MRCA would be lost if it costs more to purchase as well as to operate, than the heavies.
 
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Okay.. so, with a crash rate of 0.22 aircraft per 10,000 flying hours ... 1 aircraft crash per 45,000 flying hours.

One fighter pilot does 250 hours per year .. let's say he flies for 20 years .. so 5000 hours in the lifetime.

So, 9 pilots fly 45,000 hours during their lifetimes .... and one of them will face a crash, once during his lifetime.

1 out of every 9 pilots will face an aircrash. Thank goodness, that doesn't mean 1 in every 9 pilots ends his life in that one crash. Thanks to ejection.

Next question: What is the reliability of successful ejections, per attempt.

>> If 50% of the ejections succeed in saving the pilot .... 1 in every 18 pilots will lose his life in a crash.

>> If 75% of the ejections succeed in saving the pilot .... 1 in every 36 pilots will lose his life in a crash.

>> If 90% of the ejections succeed in saving the pilot .... 1 in every 90 pilots will lose his life in a crash.

Last one means .. about 1.11% fatality rate for someone who chooses his profession to be a fighter pilot.

I don't know, but is IAFs successful ejection rate = 90%. It so, then it sounds quite reasonable for someone to choose his profession as a fighter pilot.

On the other hand, if IAFs successful ejection rate =0%, there is a nearly 11% chance that anyone who chooses to be a fighter pilot will die in a crash .. (.. that would be rather too risky, IMO).

Hence, my interest in what is the successful ejection rate for IAF !!!!
 
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That bit sounds dubious. The Rafale's per hour flight cost is 16,500 dollars, according to multiple sources, including Jane's. The MKI's has to be much higher, because it is a much bigger and heavier aircraft, and slightly older technology than Rafale. The very reason for going for an MRCA would be lost if it costs more to purchase as well as to operate, than the heavies.

My mistake- it is closer to $20,000 USD, you are right.
 
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^^ Plus, I now note that 100 of those flying hours (out of 250) are on ground in a simulator.

That effectively improves the chances of safely by a further 40%, since no-one dies if the "crash" happens in a simulator.

So.. up the numbers calculated above by 40%.
 
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Okay.. so, with a crash rate of 0.22 aircraft per 10,000 flying hours ... 1 aircraft crash per 45,000 flying hours.

One fighter pilot does 250 hours per year .. let's say he flies for 20 years .. so 5000 hours in the lifetime.

So, 9 pilots fly 45,000 hours during their lifetimes .... and one of them will face a crash, once during his lifetime.

1 out of every 9 pilots will face an aircrash. Thank goodness, that doesn't mean 1 in every 9 pilots ends his life in that one crash. Thanks to ejection.

Next question: What is the reliability of successful ejections, per attempt.

>> If 50% of the ejections succeed in saving the pilot .... 1 in every 18 pilots will lose his life in a crash.

>> If 75% of the ejections succeed in saving the pilot .... 1 in every 36 pilots will lose his life in a crash.

>> If 90% of the ejections succeed in saving the pilot .... 1 in every 90 pilots will lose his life in a crash.

Last one means .. about 1.11% fatality rate for someone who chooses his profession to be a fighter pilot.

I don't know, but is IAFs successful ejection rate = 90%. It so, then it sounds quite reasonable for someone to choose his profession as a fighter pilot.

On the other hand, if IAFs successful ejection rate =0%, there is a nearly 11% chance that anyone who chooses to be a fighter pilot will die in a crash .. (.. that would be rather too risky, IMO).

Hence, my interest in what is the successful ejection rate for IAF !!!!

The flight hours recorded by even the most senior and veteran officers are usually in the 3,000 range. Norman Browne (the current air force chief) had logged 3,100 hours - and he was an instructor at TACDE, and is about 62 years old.

N.A.K. Browne next Air Chief - The Hindu

Air Marshal Browne, who will turn 60 on December 15 this year, is a fighter pilot with a varied operational experience, including flying Hunters, all variants of the MiG21s, Jaguars and Sukhoi-30, logging about 3,100 hours, the Defence Ministry said.

We can safely take that as a reasonable MAXIMUM for any pilot, since on an average nobody serves that long, and don't become instructors at TACDE. It is reasonable to assume that the average hours logged by a pilot in his lifetime would be lower than 3000 for sure. So the crash probability in your stats are a dramatic overestimation. The fatality probability would be at least less than half of what you estimated, probably still lower.
 
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Ok, with 3000 hours,

It means that 1 in 15 pilots faces a crash in his lifetime.

About 7% fatality, if ejection never works.

And about 3.5% fatality, if ejection works on 50% of the times.
 
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