With J-31 Flight, China Makes a Statement
Nov. 15, 2014 - 04:37PM |
By WENDELL MINNICK
Export Ambitions: A Chinese J-31 stealth fighter performs at the Airshow China 2014 in Zhuhai on Nov. 11. (JOHANNES EISELE/ / AFP/Getty Images)
ZHUHAI, CHINA — When China’s stealthy, twin-engine J-31 took to the skies over Airshow China in Zhuhai last week, the skies were cloudy, but the message the country wanted to send was clear.
Beijing not only plans to sell a new fighter — it also wants to sell itself on the world stage.
“I think the public unveiling of J-31 certainly shows the Chinese military is now more confident and transparent,” said Wang Dong, director of the School of International Studies, Center for Northeast Asian Strategic Studies, Peking University.
Beijing’s lack of transparency has created suspicion and speculation in the Pentagon and among China watchers in Washington.
“This is a message of reassurance to the region,” Wang said. Becoming more transparent and revealing your top military technologies serves as a message of deterrence to potential rivals. “China’s increase in confidence and transparency should be applauded.”
China plans to export the J-31; the customer lineup appears to be Iran and Pakistan. The J-31 will be the first stealth fighter available on the global market for those who face US export restrictions or cannot afford the Lockheed Martin F-35.
The J-31 export revelation occurred in the AVIC Exhibition Hall after personnel unwrapped its 1:2 model of the aircraft during the preshow media tour. The placard for the model said “FC-31.” Chinese fighters are designated with a “J” for fighter and “FC” for export. This was the first time the J-31 has been referred to as the FC-31.
Larry Wortzel, a commissioner of the US congressionally appointed US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, said the first public demonstration flight of the J-31 and the unveiling of the FC-31 coincides with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Beijing and the visit of US President Obama.
It reminded Wortzel of the same greeting that former US Defense Secretary Robert Gates got with the surprise first flight of the CAC-built J-20 stealth fighter during his visit to China in January 2011. The incident was interpreted by many in Washington as a political signal to the US delegation, though Chinese officials denied there was a connection. Regarding the coincidence of Obama’s visit to China and the appearance of the J-31 at Zhuhai, Wortzel said, “at least this time there is some advance notice.”
The presence of the aircraft at Zhuhai indicates China is looking at the export arena, said Douglas Barrie, a senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London.
“This, however, raises numerous questions, not least of all, just which of China’s present export customers is in the market for or has the capacity to absorb and field what is at least notionally a fifth-generation combat aircraft,” he said. Barrie noted that in terms of a successor to the Chengdu J-7 fighter family in the export arena, developments of the CAC-built J-10 or the JF-17/FC-1 are far more credible in the near term.
China seems to be aiming at an odd market niche, said Roger Cliff, nonresident senior fellow for the Asia Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council. “Countries that don’t want to pay for an F-35, but want something better, than, say, a MiG-29 or F-16,” such as Iran and Pakistan, might be interested in the FC-31. However, there does not seem to be enough of an export market to justify the development costs, Cliff said. “Not that everything AVIC does is driven by economic logic.”
Cliff suspects that if the Chinese Air Force is planning to buy the J-31, “it will be the ‘low’ part of a high-low mix with the more-capable system, the J-20 [stealth fighter], conspicuously absent at Zhuhai, even though it is presumably further along in its development.”
Cliff said that if the point was to show off China’s capabilities, it would bring a J-20 to Zhuhai. “For China to offer for export the less-capable of two similar systems, however, would be consistent with past practice,” such as the JF-17/FC-1 and J-10 fighters and the KS-1 and HQ-9 surface-to-air missile systems.
The one item the Chinese have trouble duplicating is advanced fighter engine designs. The Russian-built Saturn AL-31 engine is believed to be the power source for the J-31 prototype. This does not necessarily mean the fighter will have export problems due to licensing. Cliff said there is precedent for the Russian’s allowing re-export of the RD-93 engine on the FC-1/JF-17, “so I don’t see why it wouldn’t be allowed in this case.”
China is trying to develop the indigenous WS-13 engine to take the RD-93’s place on the FC-1 and, presumably, the J-31. “If they succeed, then Russian engines won’t be an issue.”
Chinese officials have not explained the J-31’s striking resemblance to the F-35, but espionage is the most likely explanation.
“I have argued you always get a double bounce from [Chinese] espionage — they get the system for the [military] and also sell it,” said Edward Timperlake, former Pentagon director of technology assessment, international technology security. “The bad news/ good news is if the collectors [aka spies] were successful in getting the F-35, hopefully they did it mid-software design, so they really do not have the logic of the software as the US constantly improves the coding — much like successfully stealing a calculus midterm without being present in class — being proud of an A and then failing to steal the final.”
Evidence does exist that suggests China is still trying to get access to that final test paper. In June, the US Federal Bureau of Investigation alleged that a Chinese businessman living in Canada, Su Bin, accessed both F-22 Raptor and F-35 secrets from US defense industry computers. Su is alleged to have obtained F-35 test plans and “blueprints” that would “allow us [China] to catch up rapidly with US levels … [and] stand easily on the giant’s shoulders,” according to Su’s e-mails made public by the US Department of Justice.
Wortzel, who wrote the book, “The Dragon Extends its Reach: Chinese Military Power Goes Global,” said it is still unknown how much reverse engineering and technology theft influenced the aircraft design.
“It is a significant development that shows how the parallel development process is going inside AVIC” for the J-31 and J-20. “The commission’s annual report project [initial operating capability] for both the J-20 and the J-31 is in the 2016-2017 time frame.”
But how stealthy and fifth-generation is the J-31 compared to its near mirror image, the F-35? Fifth-generation means more than just stealth, Cliff said.
“It also includes super-cruise, thrust vectoring, AESA [active electronically scanned array] radar, and high-bandwidth, low-probability-of-intercept data links,” he said.
Admittedly, by those standards even the F-22 and F-35 are not completely fifth-generation, Cliff said, “but since, like the F-35, the J-31 doesn’t look like it will have super-cruise or thrust-vectoring, whether it is more than just a stealthy fourth-generation fighter will depend on whether it comes with an AESA radar and/or high-bandwidth, low-probability-of-intercept data links, which the F-35 does have.”
The physical resemblance between the J-31 and the F-35 — despite the difference in relative size — indicates an effort by China to reproduce the F-35s stealthy external design, Timperlake said.
“If it is a success in being physically stealthy and they build a lot it could be a problem” for our allies in the region, he said.
However, stealth is simply a survivability feature and analysts must learn more about the internal systems. The real combat engagement operational and tactical question is the F-35 fusion cockpit and whether the Chinese actually have anything close to it, Timperlake said.
“Fusion will make all the difference in looking at the J-31 as a real competitor or just a linear generational development aircraft with perhaps enhanced survivability that will still need a hub spoke battle management [concept of operations] — [airborne warning and control system] or [ground-controlled interception] being essential for them,” he said. ■
Email: wminnick@defensenews.com.
