SAC - FC-31 Grey Falcon Stealth aircraft for PAF : Updates & Debate

[Saifullah Sani]

An unidentified Middle Eastern country is in “advanced” talks to make the first foreign purchase of a fighter jet jointly developed by Pakistan and China.

The joint sales team from the Pakistan Air Force and China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation also known as CATIC, are in advanced talks with 10 other countries to sell the JF-17 Thunder, said PAF Air Commodore Khalid Mahmood, who heads sales and marketing for the fighter jet.

“We are in advanced negotiations with a Middle Eastern country, but the political situation over there has delayed the deal,” said Mahmood in an interview at the Zhuhai Air Show yesterday, declining to give more details. “But we still expect them to be our first foreign client.”

The JF-17 Thunder fighter jet is among several aircraft China is seeking to export, after designating its domestic aerospace sector as a key national strategic industry. The twin-engine jet was jointly designed and manufactured by the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, a subsidiary of state-owned Aviation Industry Corp of China, also known as AVIC.

The partners are in “advanced talks” with clients in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and South America for jet sales, Mahmood said. He declined to identify any of them. Prospective orders will be for the third block of 50 planes, with the Pakistan Air Force having ordered the first two blocks of 50.

Dual-Seat Version

Mahmood said there are plans in place for a dual-seater version of the JF-17 Thunder after feedback from potential clients. The third-generation fighter jet, also known as FC-1 Dragon by the Chinese, can be used for aerial reconnaissance and has air-to-air and air-to-surface combat capabilities, according to its product website.

Flightglobal, an aviation-related website, previously reported that the partnership was close to making its first foreign sale.

A mock up of the single-seat, single-engine JF-17 is on display at the Zhuhai Air Show that started Nov. 11 in the province of Guangdong, along with several others produced by AVIC -- including the J-31, one of China’s fifth-generation stealth fighters.

The J-31 gave its first public demonstration at China’s largest air show on Tuesday. Manufactured by a Shenyang AVIC subsidiary, the fighter is a test of the country’s ability to deliver cutting-edge defense technology.

Still largely-shrouded in secrecy, the production of the fighter could add heft to China’s sea and air expansion in the region and its push-back against decades of U.S. economic and military dominance.

China-Pakistan Fighter Jet Nears First Foreign Deal - Businessweek

 

[Lil Mathew]

You forgot to substract the $4 billion for maintaining the IAF fleet, have you done it on purpose?
So that will be capital budget: India $2 billion, Pakistan $300 million (That is, if PAF budget is $1.5 billion as you think, If it is $2 billion, the gap will not be that big, PAF capital budget would be $800 million. So IAF capital buget would be 2.5 times bigger)

I clearly stated IAF total budget is $10 billion.. After subtracting $4 billion revenue budget, capital budget remains $6 billion..
IAF total budget(2013-14)=57502 Rs in cr= $9.3 billion
Capital budget= 37048 Rs in cr= $ 6.15 billion
India’s Defence Budget 2013-14: A Bumpy Road Ahead | Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

PAF total budget (2014-15)=Rs149 billion= $1.46 billion
Rs 700 billion allocatedfor defence, up by 12%

 

[The SC]

I clearly stated IAF total budget is $10 billion.. After subtracting $4 billion revenue budget, capital budget remains $6 billion..
IAF total budget(2013-14)=57502 Rs in cr= $9.3 billion
Capital budget= 37048 Rs in cr= $ 6.15 billion
India’s Defence Budget 2013-14: A Bumpy Road Ahead | Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

PAF total budget (2014-15)=Rs149 billion= $1.46 billion
Rs 700 billion allocatedfor defence, up by 12%

Well, I have estimated your total yearly budget at $6 billion give or take, and that is because I have seen reports that India can not sustain the current "official" budget, the economy is just not doing that great or as projected, in other words it has slowed down, and budgeting is going trough some major reshufflement. There are also major problems with the IAF fleet that will eat up through the budget.
So theoretically you might have a 20 times bigger budget than PAF's one, but in reality that figure is way too way exaggerated. Also PAF has another budget for procurements and production of new jets (Or do you think the $300 million that you count is sufficient?), so in my own estimate, PAF budget should be at least twice what you think it is.

 

[Lil Mathew]

Well, I have estimated your total yearly budget at $6 billion give or take, and that is because I have seen reports that India can not sustain the current "official" budget, the economy is just not doing that great or as projected, in other words it has slowed down, and budgeting is going trough some major reshufflement. There are also major problems with the IAF fleet that will eat up through the budget.

That is not correct.. Allocated money never be reduced according to current economical growth, but will effect next years allocation.. Over spending and underspending will be there( very narrow difference)... For example IAF overspend 72 cr rupees in 2012-13 fidcal year.. That is 0.25 % overspending.. Also IAF underspend 2.5% in 2013-14 fiscal [ this will be added to next year].. All datas are available in official sites..

So theoretically you might have a 20 times bigger budget than PAF's one, but in reality that figure is way too way exaggerated. Also PAF has another budget for procurements and production of new jets (Or do you think the $300 million that you count is sufficient?), so in my own estimate, PAF budget should be at least twice what you think it is.

Pakistan's economy is a very small economy with very high fiscal deficit.. Allocating extra money to defence other than fiscal budget is somewhat impossible.. From where money will come??

 

[farhan_9909]

That is not correct.. Allocated money never be reduced according to current economical growth, but will effect next years allocation.. Over spending and underspending will be there( very narrow difference)... For example IAF overspend 72 cr rupees in 2012-13 fidcal year.. That is 0.25 % overspending.. Also IAF underspend 2.5% in 2013-14 fiscal [ this will be added to next year].. All datas are available in official sites..


Pakistan's economy is a very small economy with very high fiscal deficit.. Allocating extra money to defence other than fiscal budget is somewhat impossible.. From where money will come??

Pakistan revenue growth is around 20% per year as this year budget was 0.8trillion pkr more than previous.as per my rough calculation based off 20% average revenue growth(Excluding the deficit),our over all budget would be around 99Billion dollars by 2019 or having the defence budget of 21Billion dollars by 2019.

Though because of the possibility of imran khan govt next year and the space level tax reform's.i am forced to believe that our budget by 2019 will be no less than 130-150Billion dollars or the defence budget no less than 26-28Billion dollars by 2020

 

[farhan_9909]

2014-15 Budget

43Billion dollars with deficit reduced to 4.9%

2014–15 Pakistan federal budget - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2013-14 budget

35Billion dollars

2013–14 Pakistan federal budget - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

An increase of 22% only in 1 year,expect next year budget to be 52-55Billion dollars or defence budget of 10Billion dollars

Gone are the days of 6% average revenue growth rate.16% was the last year growth rate and so for 19.6% is the growth rate of the first 4 months of this fy

 

[The SC]

That is not correct.. Allocated money never be reduced according to current economical growth, but will effect next years allocation.. Over spending and underspending will be there( very narrow difference)... For example IAF overspend 72 cr rupees in 2012-13 fidcal year.. That is 0.25 % overspending.. Also IAF underspend 2.5% in 2013-14 fiscal [ this will be added to next year].. All datas are available in official sites..


Pakistan's economy is a very small economy with very high fiscal deficit.. Allocating extra money to defence other than fiscal budget is somewhat impossible.. From where money will come??

Those are savings planned for years ago and invested on long term haul, you won't see them in the budget. So these calculations are at best speculative.

 

[Lil Mathew]

2014-15 Budget

43Billion dollars with deficit reduced to 4.9%

2014–15 Pakistan federal budget - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2013-14 budget

35Billion dollars

2013–14 Pakistan federal budget - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

An increase of 22% only in 1 year,expect next year budget to be 52-55Billion dollars or defence budget of 10Billion dollars

Gone are the days of 6% average revenue growth rate.16% was the last year growth rate and so for 19.6% is the growth rate of the first 4 months of this fy

This spending is very low compared to other countries.. Your spending is below 20% of total gdp.. Also take a look at your revenue structure. Tax revenue is less than 10% of gdp or ~20 billion.. It is not even adequate for your debt management..

 

[dil_dil]

2014-15 Budget

43Billion dollars with deficit reduced to 4.9%

2014–15 Pakistan federal budget - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2013-14 budget

35Billion dollars

2013–14 Pakistan federal budget - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

An increase of 22% only in 1 year,expect next year budget to be 52-55Billion dollars or defence budget of 10Billion dollars

Gone are the days of 6% average revenue growth rate.16% was the last year growth rate and so for 19.6% is the growth rate of the first 4 months of this fy

If Pakistan can archive GDP growth target of 7% in 2-3 years then i can see revenues raising 20%+ every year. Plus this gov is serious about getting rid of loss making public companies which cost Pakistan Rs500 billion every year.

 

[Lil Mathew]

Those are savings planned for years ago and invested on long term haul, you won't see them in the budget. So these calculations are at best speculative.

Sorry.. I didn't get you.. Please explain with an example of such investment..

 

[dil_dil]

This spending is very low compared to other countries.. Your spending is below 20% of total gdp.. Also take a look at your revenue structure. Tax revenue is less than 10% of gdp or ~20 billion.. It is not even adequate for your debt management..

Tax collection was near $23 billion last year, this year it will be close to $28 billion. Actually going from $43 billion budget to $100 billion by 2018 will not be that big of deal looking at tax revenues increase.

 

[The SC]

Exactly, & most of it will be because of engines & avionics...air frame & small parts cost can be cut through 3D printing as much as 75%.

Sorry.. I didn't get you.. Please explain with an example of such investment..

The JF-17 program should do as an example.

 

[MastanKhan]

well guys i have a off topic question , that why peoples seems to ignore the fact block 3 Jf-17 can be a potent fighter , and right now we need to focus on JF and try to procure more f-16's and mlued them...where block 3 will stand in comparison to J-10s or f-16's ???

on topic , as most of senior members suggest that we should wait and save money till 2018-2020 and than get 3-4 sqs of J-31 , or may be upgrade them according to our needs ...but it is yet to disclose that which Radar j-31 will be using ,and RCS , IRST etc...

Hi,

The lesson learnt from integrating JF 17 is that you start ahead of the game to be ready in time. And specially with something like the J31----I will give it 8 to 10 years---. Perfect timing if the deal is going to be made.

 

[farhan_9909]

This spending is very low compared to other countries.. Your spending is below 20% of total gdp.. Also take a look at your revenue structure. Tax revenue is less than 10% of gdp or ~20 billion.. It is not even adequate for your debt management..

It is,but each year pakistan overall budget is atleast 20-22% more than previous,pakistan deficit is around 4.9% as compared to 4% for india.

Considering that this year our budget was 21% of GDP($7Billion+$1.6billion),our budget with this growth rate will reach 21Billion dollars by 2019 and even more onwards

 

[Shabi1]

This spending is very low compared to other countries.. Your spending is below 20% of total gdp.. Also take a look at your revenue structure. Tax revenue is less than 10% of gdp or ~20 billion.. It is not even adequate for your debt management..

Pakistan has a huge black economy (undocumented economy), which is the reason why economic figures dont give an accurate estimate for Pakistan and that even despite low economic stats Pakistan manages to boast such a well equipped military and a complex nuclear program.

IMF and other agencies are aware of this, attended a World Bank lecture once and the person giving the lecture acknowledged this. Actual GDP and other stats are much different, its deliberately kept undocumented so that the elite can get away with tax evasion plus a black budget covers for the nuclear program.

Making a economic comparison argument seems irrelevant, the fact is if Pakistan's leadership feels they need something on priority they can procure it. Its about priorities. At the moment Pakistan's priorities are fighting a war with the militants so it is hesitant from committing resources on conventional weapons since war on the eastern front is unlikely and it will avoid one no matter what the provocation. Soon as the internal and western threat is neutralized and focus is again on eastern threat, expect a flux of modernization projects. The decision makers in Pakistan are very competent and know its better to hold out for better weapon systems for which they likely have received advance knowledge. The J-31 over taking the FC-20/J-10B being one example. Same reason for delaying the Cobra and frigate replacements. Despite delaying decisions for better options, if you analyze current platforms, operational capabilities are not being sacrificed and meeting all current actual threat assessments.