sancho
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I think it will depend upon MRCA deal, even though Saab has earlier stated that the JV has got nothing to do with the deal, but i hardly agree with them.. it was a marketing ploy... Anyway for them production and R&D shifting to here will make it cost effective and a good platform for marketing it in Asia.
Exactly, they start JV, coops, or build even own presence in India to divert the offsets back to India, in case they will win MMRCA, or other competitions (MRMPA with Saab 2000). That's what all the companies do and especially Saab is trying to outsource as much as possible. If you look at Gripen alone, there are companies in South Africa and now in Brazil too, that are developing parts, designs... for Saab. Makes it cheaper, but also more dependent on others!
P.S . I wonder what would happen if neither Gripen NG wins neither in India, nor in Brazil?
Sweden would most likely just upgrade their older fighters with some NG techs, but the production line would end soon and Saab Aviation would be in trouble. Would TATA be able to take over them in such a situation?
For India that would be fantastic, to have the state own HAL and the private TATA owned Saab Aviation to compete for future developments.