Ukraine war: Putin not bluffing about nuclear weapons, EU says

[Zarvan]

Ukraine war: Putin not bluffing about nuclear weapons, EU says​

IMAGE SOURCE,SHUTTERSTOCK
Image caption,
Russia's president made a thinly veiled threat this week he could use nuclear weapons

The EU must take Vladimir Putin's threats he could use nuclear weapons in the conflict in Ukraine seriously, the bloc's foreign policy chief has said.

Josep Borrell told the BBC's Lyse Doucet that the war had reached a "dangerous moment".

His remarks come as Russia begins a partial mobilisation and moves to annex four regions of Ukraine.

Mr Putin has faced setbacks on the battlefield, with his forces pushed back by a Ukrainian counter-offensive.

"Certainly it's a dangerous moment because the Russian army has been pushed into a corner, and Putin's reaction - threatening using nuclear arms - it's very bad," Mr Borrell said.

Seven months since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, analysts agree that President Putin's forces are on the back foot, but he said a "diplomatic solution" must be reached, one that "preserves the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine".

"Otherwise, we can finish the war, but we will not have peace, and we will have another war," he said.
In a rare address to the nation earlier this week, Mr Putin said his country had "various weapons of destruction" and would "use all the means available to us", adding: "I'm not bluffing."

"When people say it is not a bluff, you have to take them seriously," Mr Borrell said.

In the same speech President Putin announced the call-up of 300,000 Russians who have done compulsory military service, sparking protests and reports of people fleeing the country to avoid being sent to the front line.

It comes after a rapid counter-offensive in which Ukraine says it took more than 8,000 sq km (3,088 sq miles) back from Russian forces.

Now self-styled referendums on joining Russia are being held in four occupied regions. Ukraine has denounced these as annexation attempts, and reported that armed Russian soldiers are going door-to-door collecting votes.

Ukraine has dominated this year's UN General Assembly as this costly war drags on with no clear sense of a way out. Europe's foreign policy chief was surprisingly blunt and visibly pained.

He shared the anxious lament he was hearing everywhere he went. From friends on holiday, to leaders from around the world attending the UN General Assembly this week, they were all asking him when this war would end. "Stop this war, I can't pay my electricity bill," was, he regretted, a common refrain.

Mr Borrell was willing to say in public what many express in private - that Europe and its allies were struggling to control the narrative in this war as Russia spins the view that European sanctions against Russia were to blame for this suffering.

But Moscow's new and worrying threats, including a thinly-veiled nuclear one, are also concentrating minds. Most Western leaders, including Mr Borrell, are still categorical about the need to stay the course in a conflict with many far-reaching consequences, most of all for Ukraine, but many others too.

Mr Borrell dismissed concerns that the EU's arms supplies were running low, and said it must continue providing military support to Ukraine, as well as applying economic sanctions against President Putin and his allies and conducting diplomatic activity.

He admitted that the rising cost of energy prices caused by the conflict was a matter of concern.

"People in my country tell me the price of the gas means we cannot continue working, we cannot continue making my business run," the Spanish politician said, adding he had heard similar concerns from leaders from Africa, South America and Southeast Asia.

Mr Borrell called on President Putin to play his part in reaching a negotiated solution, saying "in order to dance the tango, you need two".

"Everybody who has gone to Moscow, to the Kremlin to talk to Putin, they came back with the same answer, 'I [Putin] have military objectives, and if I don't get these military objectives I will continue the fight.' This is certainly a worrisome direction, but we have to continue to support Ukraine," he said.

Ukraine war: Putin not bluffing about nuclear weapons, EU says

The EU's warning comes after Russia's president said he could use "all the means available to us".

www.bbc.com

 

[Akbar26]

North Korea is reportedly preparing to deploy armed forces to Ukraine in support of Russia, according to South Korea's defense chief. This development, if confirmed, would mark a significant escalation in North Korea's involvement in international conflicts and deepen its ties with Russia. Such a move could have broader geopolitical implications, particularly in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the global response to Russia's actions. South Korea and its allies are closely monitoring the situation for further developments

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843832160257761770

 

[HaiderAfan]

On November 21, 2024, Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at Ukraine, specifically targeting the city of Dnipro. This marks a significant escalation in the conflict, as it is the first time an ICBM has been used in wartime. The missile was reportedly fired from the Astrakhan regionand is part of a broader series of missile attacks that included various types of munitions aimed at critical infrastructure across Ukraine.

Details of the Missile Launch​

• Types of Missiles Used: In addition to the ICBM, Russia also deployed an aeroballistic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missile and several Kh-101 cruise missiles. Ukrainian air defenses managed to intercept six of the Kh-101 missiles during the assault.
• Impact on Dnipro: The missile strikes caused significant damage to infrastructure in Dnipro, with local officials confirming that they targeted critical facilities. Initial reports indicated that there were no immediate casualties from the ICBM strike, but further assessments are ongoing.

Context of the Attack​

This missile launch follows a series of extensive airstrikes by Russia, which had previously targeted Ukraine's energy infrastructure with over 120 missiles and 90 drones in a coordinated assault just days earlier. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that these attacks were part of Russia's response to international diplomatic engagements with Russian President Vladimir Putin, reflecting a strategic escalation amid ongoing military operations.The use of an ICBM in this context raises serious concerns about the potential for further escalation in the conflict and highlights the increasing intensity of military actions between Russia and Ukraine. The situation remains fluid, with both sides monitoring developments closely as tensions rise.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1859408891970236868

 

[sidkhan2]

Russia has prepared a second missile, codenamed HAZELNUT (or Oreshnikin Russian), for deployment amid escalating tensions in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. This missile is part of Russia's broader military strategy and has been characterized as a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile.

Key Details:​

• Missile Characteristics: The HAZELNUT missile is designed to travel at speeds of up to Mach 10, making it extremely difficult for current air defense systems to intercept. It is intended for use against military targets and has been described as capable of carrying multiple warheads.
• Recent Usage: The missile was first utilized in a combat scenario during a strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, where it targeted a military-industrial facility. This attack resulted in civilian casualties and significant infrastructure damage, raising concerns about the potential for further escalations.
• Geopolitical Implications: President Vladimir Putin has indicated that the deployment of such missiles serves as a warning to Western nations involved in supporting Ukraine. He emphasized that these weapons are part of Russia's response to perceived threats from NATO and other countries supplying arms to Ukraine.
• Nuclear Capabilities: While the current deployment of the HAZELNUT missile is described as conventional, there are implications that it could be adapted for nuclear warheads, increasing its threat level significantly. This potential capability has raised alarms about the risk of nuclear escalation in the conflict.
• International Reactions: The announcement of this missile's readiness comes at a time when NATO and Ukraine are holding emergency talks to address the heightened security situation. The West is closely monitoring Russia's military developments, particularly in light of recent aggressive actions.

Conclusion​

The emergence of the HAZELNUT missile represents a significant escalation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with potential implications for global security. As tensions rise, the international community remains vigilant regarding Russia's military capabilities and its willingness to use them in response to Western support for Ukraine. The situation underscores the urgent need for diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation and address the ongoing crisis.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1861054988748780026

 

[sidkhan2]

On December 1, 2024, Russia has initiated a large-scale redeployment of military units, a development that has raised significant concerns regarding global stability and security. This move comes amidst ongoing tensions related to Russia's military actions in Ukraine and its broader geopolitical ambitions.

Overview of the Redeployment​

The Russian military's decision to redeploy forces is seen as a strategic response to the evolving dynamics on the battlefield, particularly as Ukraine continues its counteroffensive operations. The redeployment is expected to involve tens of thousands of troops, with estimates suggesting that around 50,000 soldiersmay be relocated to key operational areas. This move is part of Russia's ongoing efforts to reinforce its military presence in regions where it faces significant challenges.

1. Strategic Objectives: The primary objective of this redeployment appears to be to strengthen Russian positions in eastern Ukraine, particularly in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. As Ukrainian forces have made gains in recent months, Russia aims to consolidate its military capabilities to counter these advances effectively.
2. Troop Composition: The redeployed units are likely to include a mix of regular army troops, special forces, and support elements. This diverse composition is intended to enhance operational flexibility and ensure that Russian forces can respond rapidly to changing battlefield conditions.
3. Logistical Considerations: The logistics of such a large-scale redeployment are complex and require careful planning. Russia must ensure that troops are adequately supplied with equipment, ammunition, and other resources necessary for sustained operations. This includes addressing potential supply chain vulnerabilities that could arise during the movement of forces.

Implications for Global Stability​

The implications of Russia's troop redeployment extend beyond the immediate conflict in Ukraine and have broader ramifications for global stability:

1. Increased Tensions with NATO: As Russia reinforces its military presence near NATO borders, tensions between Moscow and Western alliances are likely to escalate. NATO member states are closely monitoring these developments and may respond by increasing their own military readiness in Eastern Europe.
2. Potential for Escalation: The redeployment raises concerns about the potential for renewed hostilities in Ukraine. If Russian forces are perceived as preparing for a significant offensive, this could prompt preemptive actions from Ukrainian forces or even provoke a larger conflict involving NATO allies.
3. Impact on Regional Security: Neighboring countries, particularly those bordering Russia and Ukraine, may feel compelled to reassess their security postures in light of the increased Russian military activity. This could lead to an arms buildup or heightened military readiness among nations concerned about potential spillover effects from the conflict.

Response from Ukraine and International Community​

In response to the redeployment, Ukrainian officials have expressed alarm over the potential implications for their ongoing counteroffensive efforts:

1. Ukrainian Military Strategy: Ukrainian military leaders have indicated that they will adapt their strategies in light of the Russian troop movements. This may involve reinforcing defensive positions and preparing for possible counterattacks against newly concentrated Russian forces.
2. International Support: The international community, particularly Western allies, is likely to increase support for Ukraine in response to the heightened threat posed by Russian reinforcements. This could include additional military aid, training programs, and intelligence sharing aimed at bolstering Ukraine's defensive capabilities.
3. Diplomatic Efforts: Diplomatic channels may be activated as countries seek to de-escalate tensions and prevent further conflict escalation. However, given the entrenched positions on both sides, achieving meaningful dialogue may prove challenging.

Broader Geopolitical Context​

The troop redeployment occurs within a complex geopolitical landscape characterized by shifting alliances and emerging threats:

1. North Korean Involvement: Reports have indicated North Korea's intention to send troops to support Russia's war efforts in Ukraine. This development adds another layer of complexity to the situation, as it signifies deepening military cooperation between two nations facing international isolation.
2. Russian Military Resilience: Despite suffering significant casualties—estimates suggest over 600,000 Russians killed or wounded—the Kremlin continues to seek ways to sustain its military operations without resorting to a second mobilization of its citizens. The reliance on foreign troops reflects Moscow's desperation for manpower amid ongoing losses.
3. Global Reactions: The international community remains divided on how to respond to Russia's actions. While some nations call for increased sanctions and diplomatic pressure, others may seek closer ties with Moscow as they navigate their own geopolitical interests.

Conclusion​

Russia's large-scale redeployment of troops signals a critical juncture in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine and poses significant challenges for global stability. As tensions rise and military postures shift, the potential for escalation remains high.The international community must remain vigilant and proactive in addressing these developments through diplomatic channels while ensuring robust support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Balancing deterrence with dialogue will be essential in navigating this complex geopolitical landscape where miscalculations could lead to broader conflicts affecting regional and global security dynamics.As the situation unfolds, all stakeholders must prioritize peacebuilding efforts while preparing for the realities of an evolving conflict landscape that could reshape international relations for years to come.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1863168664796823875

 

[HaiderAfan]

Russian President Vladimir Putin has formally revised the country's nuclear doctrine, indicating a significant shift in policy that lowers the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. In recent statements, Putin warned that Russia reserves the right to deploy nuclear arms in response to aggression, particularly if faced with a conventional attack from a non-nuclear state that is supported by a nuclear power.

Key Aspects of the Revised Nuclear Doctrine​

1. Lowered Threshold for Nuclear Response: The updated doctrine allows for a potential nuclear response not only to nuclear attacks but also to significant conventional assaults that threaten Russia's sovereignty and territorial integrity. This marks a departure from previous policies that restricted nuclear engagement primarily to scenarios where the very existence of the state was at risk.
2. Definition of Aggression: Putin stated that any attack on Russia by a non-nuclear nation, especially if backed by a nuclear state, would be viewed as a "coordinated assault" on the Russian Federation. This broad definition could encompass various forms of military engagement, including strikes using advanced weaponry supplied by Western nations to Ukraine.
3. Response to Western Military Support: The revisions come in direct response to increased military support from the U.S. and NATO allies to Ukraine, including the provision of long-range missiles. Kremlin officials have indicated that such support could provoke a nuclear retaliation if it leads to conventional attacks on Russian territory.
4. Strategic Messaging: The timing of these announcements appears calculated to send a strong message to Western powers regarding their involvement in the conflict in Ukraine. By emphasizing its readiness to use nuclear weapons, Russia aims to deter further military assistance to Ukraine and assert its position in ongoing geopolitical tensions.
5. Implications for Regional Security: This shift in policy raises concerns about escalating tensions not only between Russia and Ukraine but also with NATO countries. Analysts warn that lowering the threshold for nuclear engagement could lead to miscalculations and increase the risk of conflict spiraling out of control.

Conclusion​

Putin's announcement regarding the revised nuclear doctrine underscores the Kremlin's intent to maintain a formidable deterrent posture amidst ongoing hostilities in Ukraine. By broadening the circumstances under which Russia might consider using nuclear weapons, Moscow is signaling its willingness to escalate militarily in response to perceived threats, thereby complicating the security landscape in Europe and beyond. The international community will be closely monitoring these developments as they unfold, given their potential implications for global stability and security.