Russian Navy Spots Foreign Submarine near Russia-Japan Border

[Chinese-Dragon]

I did not notice that. Thanks for pointing it out. Given that it was a discussion of just the region, it seems better to only show regional forces to avoid confusion.

That's alright, I got confused too the first time I saw that chart. But this is at least the third time I've seen it now.

On a related note, the Chinese Navy really needs to expand over the next decade, we are still only spending around 1.4% of GDP on our defence budget (or 5% of our government budget which is nearly the lowest ratio in the world).

That's not commensurate with what we have to protect, i.e. the largest population in the world, and one of the longest borders in the world.

 

[Europa]

If you saw Senheiser's graphic, it clearly shows a color-coded distinction between the different regional fleets.

The Pacific fleet for example uses the color grey.

yes, ash colored

 

[Aepsilons]

Kaijo Jeitai's 4th Escort Fleet's military exercise in Northern Japanese Territorial Waters,

Launching of ASW units from Light Carrier JS Izumo

JMSDF 4th Escort Fleet near Japan - Russia Neutral Zone

my friend, you talk as if you are a government spokesperson, you see japan says another thing

Provocative Russian military games in northern territories unforgivable - The Japan News

I'm speaking as one who served in the JMSDF. Russia is considered a grade 2 level threat.

The military games that Russia conducted, was a response to our position to place sanctions on key Russian Federation officials. Naturally, we can understand their position.

 

[xunzi]

Lots of BS on this thread. @senheiser 's graphic shows the ENTIRE Russian Navy, rather than just the Pacific Fleet. The US is hardly a "whole gang", it's one country. As depicted below, most US forces are not in the west pacific regularly.

Anyhow... what I could find:

Russia Pacific Fleet:
1 cruiser
5 destroyers
4 SSBN
5 SSGN
4 SSN
7 SSK

Japan: (total, divide by two if you assume they preserve half the force for possible Southern threats, or make up your own percentages)
4 "helicopter cruisers"
24 destroyers
13 frigates
16 SS (all diesel)

US pacific fleet (again, should be divided to account for multiple zones of coverage, also need to account for the US Navy being pretty damn quiet about where their subs actually are located)
7th Fleet (western pacific, based in Japan)
1 CVN
2 CG
7 DG
1 LHD (the assault ships that are standard sized carriers with helo, harriers, and Marines)
3 SSN (based in Guam)

3rd fleet (eastern pacific, including alaska, west coast of North America, basically east of the international dateline, but you gotta figure there'd be some quick transfers in case of hostilities)
4 Carrier strike groups, variable composition, 1 CVN + typically 4-5 surface combatants and 1 SSN

difficult to say where other US subs are - there are more, but... they don't talk much about where they are assigned.

Another consideration is that realistically, not all these ships (from any country) are available all the time. They are capable of operating maybe 30% of the time on a peacetime footing, maybe 50% on a wartime footing(?). Some countries are not as good at keeping ships out at sea as others, but I couldn't give you numbers on that.

China has apparently put forces into the N. Pacific, but probably not regularly, and it wouldn't make much sense if they were teaming with Russia. You'd want to keep the forces closer to home, under land-based air cover, and draw off US/Japanese/Korean strength from a northern fight. I suspect North Korea is too politically unreliable to be of use to anyone, and South Korea probably not interested in fighting on behalf of Japan while North Korea is un-engaged (if ever).

So you are saying if you get into a fight, you would not beg your NATO allies to involve, am I correct?

 

[IsaacNewton]

Kaijo Jeitai's 4th Escort Fleet's military exercise in Northern Japanese Territorial Waters,

Launching of ASW units from Light Carrier JS Izumo

JMSDF 4th Escort Fleet near Japan - Russia Neutral Zone

I'm speaking as one who served in the JMSDF. Russia is considered a grade 2 level threat.

The military games that Russia conducted, was a response to our position to place sanctions on key Russian Federation officials. Naturally, we can understand their position.

Will Japan ever reclaim the disputed islands with Russia through force? Russia might feel threaten if Japan places a large navy near those islands.

 

[nvKyleBrown]

So you are saying if you get into a fight, you would not beg your NATO allies to involve, am I correct?

I don't think there would be a point. Europe provided no significant support during the Korean War, don't see why they would help these days. And I'm not sure they could - what have they got? France has 1 carrier (dedicated to local interests), UK has 2 (on the way, without aircraft). Maybe the UK would help out??

In any case, the original discussion was on the region. You have to figure what is immediately available (i.e. already there) and then what could be transfered quickly. I don't think Europe would transfer anything, and certainly couldn't do so quickly. So, other NATO countries at all. Canada and Australia could contribute on a quick transfer basis, but really, they'd do so operating as part of the US CVN groups, in all probability. Makes the carrier groups harder to hit, but they are pretty hard targets already.

If your talking about what someone could bring to bear, then maybe... but then the US brings a blue water fleet that makes everyone else irrelevant, and we're just comparing total fleet sizes.


But, ok:
Canada (the biggie in this group! divide by 2 for Atlantic commitments, as this is their total navy)
1 destroyer
12 frigates
4 SS

France (tahti and new caledonia):
2 "surveillance frigate" (wth?)
5 patrol boats
1 tug

UK:
can't find anything. participated in RIMPAC with some diving teams. Maybe when they get some carriers in service again they'll get more adventurous?

Germany: forget it, they have no will to fight these days, and aren't interested in anything more than 10 miles from their borders unless they are making money off of it. 4 SS, 11 frigates, not leaving the North Sea.

Spain: nada (nothing that is anywhere close to the Pacific - Med and close Atlantic only)
Italy: Med only - but they are claiming to have 15 F-35s on order!
Everyone else: no forces available in the Pacific, if they have forces at all. Europe is peaceful!

Australia:
12 frigates
6 SSK

New Zealand:
2 frigates

Philippines: not going to Japan, got their own issues with closer neighbors
likewise for the rest of the SW. Pacific.

Mexico (counting on the US to protect their shores, unless the US is invading, in which case there is no hope):
2 DD (both WWII-era US destroyers transferred over, so not DG)
6 frigates

And the people that could pick a random side but would most likely sit out anything that wasn't a direct attack on themselves
Chile (probably only worried about Peru - they have a CG!):
8 frigates
4 SSK

Peru (reserved for Ecuador or Chile):
1 CG (!!)
6 frigates
6 SSK

Ecuador (most like to fight Peru):
2 frigates
2 SSK

More interesting is what China might contribute to a fight in the N. Pacific (but why would they send anything? they can fight closer to home...)

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Europe provided no significant support during the Korean War, don't see why they would help these days.

They were fighting alongside the UN forces against us though, so they were a part of the war effort.

If your talking about what someone could bring to bear, then maybe... but then the US brings a blue water fleet that makes everyone else irrelevant, and we're just comparing total fleet sizes.

No doubt about that.

But the question is, WILL America bring their military power to the fight?

They didn't when we seized the Scarborough shoal in 2012 (despite America having a mutual defence treaty with the Philippines), and they didn't when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 (despite a promise in 1994 to protect Ukraine's sovereignty). When it comes to Russia and China, America prefers indirect means.

Since for example, if Russia starts losing a conventional fight, then there is no doubt the nuclear option will be on the table, and nobody wants a nuclear winter, even if it means backing down after being nuked.

Sure, if someone launches a nuke that would be a tragedy, but despite MAD theory... world leaders will think twice about escalating it further and causing a nuclear winter. When it comes time to end the world (including oneself and one's own family), they are likely to choose survival, even if it sets a terrible precedent and destroys deterrence theory.

 

[xunzi]

I don't think there would be a point. Europe provided no significant support during the Korean War, don't see why they would help these days. And I'm not sure they could - what have they got? France has 1 carrier (dedicated to local interests), UK has 2 (on the way, without aircraft). Maybe the UK would help out??

In any case, the original discussion was on the region. You have to figure what is immediately available (i.e. already there) and then what could be transfered quickly. I don't think Europe would transfer anything, and certainly couldn't do so quickly. So, other NATO countries at all. Canada and Australia could contribute on a quick transfer basis, but really, they'd do so operating as part of the US CVN groups, in all probability. Makes the carrier groups harder to hit, but they are pretty hard targets already.

If your talking about what someone could bring to bear, then maybe... but then the US brings a blue water fleet that makes everyone else irrelevant, and we're just comparing total fleet sizes.


But, ok:
Canada (the biggie in this group! divide by 2 for Atlantic commitments, as this is their total navy)
1 destroyer
12 frigates
4 SS

France (tahti and new caledonia):
2 "surveillance frigate" (wth?)
5 patrol boats
1 tug

UK:
can't find anything. participated in RIMPAC with some diving teams. Maybe when they get some carriers in service again they'll get more adventurous?

Germany: forget it, they have no will to fight these days, and aren't interested in anything more than 10 miles from their borders unless they are making money off of it. 4 SS, 11 frigates, not leaving the North Sea.

Spain: nada (nothing that is anywhere close to the Pacific - Med and close Atlantic only)
Italy: Med only - but they are claiming to have 15 F-35s on order!
Everyone else: no forces available in the Pacific, if they have forces at all. Europe is peaceful!

Australia:
12 frigates
6 SSK

New Zealand:
2 frigates

Philippines: not going to Japan, got their own issues with closer neighbors
likewise for the rest of the SW. Pacific.

Mexico (counting on the US to protect their shores, unless the US is invading, in which case there is no hope):
2 DD (both WWII-era US destroyers transferred over, so not DG)
6 frigates

And the people that could pick a random side but would most likely sit out anything that wasn't a direct attack on themselves
Chile (probably only worried about Peru - they have a CG!):
8 frigates
4 SSK

Peru (reserved for Ecuador or Chile):
1 CG (!!)
6 frigates
6 SSK

Ecuador (most like to fight Peru):
2 frigates
2 SSK

More interesting is what China might contribute to a fight in the N. Pacific (but why would they send anything? they can fight closer to home...)

I would not underestimate your EU allies if I were you. I don't think the British need to prove to anyone. They proved themselves during the Falkland Island war. Germany is just a gentle sleeping bear but if the revival of the Fourth Reich, watch out. We definitely want to be on good term with Germany for that purpose. France will be France. They are a force to be reckon with and quite advance. If war kick out between Russia and Japan, no doubt the US will involved and your allies to provide help in any possible ways depending on the situation. If you lose, they will obviously be more active. If you win, obviously they won't involve as much. But the point is you got a whole gang NATO to back you up. That provide extra confidence.

 

[Europa]

Will Japan ever reclaim the disputed islands with Russia through force? Russia might feel threaten if Japan places a large navy near those islands.

i think japan will back off, in fact they are

Russia holds Japan whaling research vessel

 

[Aepsilons]

Will Japan ever reclaim the disputed islands with Russia through force? Russia might feel threaten if Japan places a large navy near those islands.

Those are Japanese islands and they will be recovered. We do not recognize Russian control , and neither do our American allies.

 

[mike2000]

I think Japan will annihilate russias 'powerful navy' like it did during the 1905 Russian-japanese war. forget about the U.S. nobody stands a chance against them as of now, not maybe till 3 decades or more.

 

[Europa]

I think Japan will annihilate russias 'powerful navy' like it did during the 1905 Russian-japanese war. forget about the U.S. nobody stands a chance against them as of now, not maybe till 3 decades or more.

russia captured a japanese vessel with 19 crew members on-board just yesterday, they are still under russian custody

Russia seizes Japan whaling patrol ship | EUROPE ONLINE


TOKYO, Japan – A Japanese whaling vessel and its crew were being held in Russia on Friday after the ship entered Russian territorial waters without permission, Tokyo said.

The 712-tonne Shonan-maru No.2 was ordered into a Russian port on August 15 after sailing through the Sea of Okhotsk off Sakhalin island, an official from Japan's Fisheries Agency said.

The vessel, which does not catch whales itself but monitors the oceans for signs of the creatures, had 19 Japanese crew and one Russian observer on board.

Tokyo has admitted the vessel changed its initial course and entered Russian waters without going through the proper procedures.

"The crew members have been voluntarily questioned," the official said, adding that Tokyo was asking for their early release through diplomatic channels.

 

[Aepsilons]

I think Japan will annihilate russias 'powerful navy' like it did during the 1905 Russian-japanese war. forget about the U.S. nobody stands a chance against them as of now, not maybe till 3 decades or more.

@mike2000 ,

Any naval professional will see the situation on the ground just on biometric data. The Russian Pacific Fleet has 1 cruiser (light), and 4 to 5 destroyers in their surface capital ships. The rest are subs. The 4th Escort Fleet of the JMSDF, which is in charge of command and control of Northern Japan and Northern Maritime Territories, has a surface force that is over 4 times that amount. This does not even include our Marine Aviation , and ASW Force.

It is also well known that the USN cooperates with the JMSDF on North Pacific Patrol. This is nothing new for us.


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@Europa ,

What you're referring to is a civilian research ship. And that ship will be released to continue and complete its objective.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

I think Japan will annihilate russias 'powerful navy' like it did during the 1905 Russian-japanese war. forget about the U.S. nobody stands a chance against them as of now, not maybe till 3 decades or more.

I am afraid that the JMSDF will turn into the fish food in just few hours.

You simply cannot compare a naval outcome that happened in more than 100 years ago to today's navy standard.

 

[Gazprom]

@mike2000 ,

Any naval professional will see the situation on the ground just on biometric data. The Russian Pacific Fleet has 1 cruiser (light), and 4 to 5 destroyers in their surface capital ships. The rest are subs. The 4th Escort Fleet of the JMSDF, which is in charge of command and control of Northern Japan and Northern Maritime Territories, has a surface force that is over 4 times that amount. This does not even include our Marine Aviation , and ASW Force.

It is also well known that the USN cooperates with the JMSDF on North Pacific Patrol. This is nothing new for us.

In any war with russia ,you will run the high risk of nuclear warfare. Likely you guys will end up with another hiroshima and nagasaki on a 10x scale. Note here that russian warheads of 550-750 kiloton each,compared to hiroshima and nagasaki whose blast force was 20 kilotons. And a single SS-19 has six warheads each.