Russia Wagner Mutiny | Updates & Discussions

[Reashot Xigwin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672481526632574976

Hey El Puton is having a state of an address

 

[patero]

Putin address on now, talking defiantly.

https://www.rt.com/on-air/

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

Putin is calling it a treason. No shit

Putin even calling it a "stab in a back"

 

[AlKardai]

So what happens now?

Will Wagner fight a two front war against Ukraine and Russia now?

Or will they join Ukraine?

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

Where's the swan lake broadcast?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672498287373348866

 

[Oldman1]

So what happens now?

Will Wagner fight a two front war against Ukraine and Russia now?

Or will they join Ukraine?

If you were the leader of Wagner, would you be fighting both Ukraine and Russia? And I doubt they be joining Ukraine since Wagner have their own interests.

 

[REhorror]

These Wagner guys look American holy shit, mag carrier, armor and shit, look like CoD.

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

If you were the leader of Wagner, would you be fighting both Ukraine and Russia? And I doubt they be joining Ukraine since Wagner have their own interests.

Wagner doesn't need to fight Ukraine. That's the Russian job. Wagner just need to focus on capturin moscow.

 

[Oldman1]

These Wagner guys look American holy shit, mag carrier, armor and shit, look like CoD.

You think its the American Green Men version?

 

[REhorror]

You think its the American Green Men version?

More like brown men, they are even wearing brown like in Iraq.

Lot of western gear, except with AK.

 

[AlKardai]

These Wagner guys look American holy shit, mag carrier, armor and shit, look like CoD.

Because they're mercenaries, and the ratnik gear is no issued for them

Plus Wagner is basically the only skilled military Russia has, and now he's lost them.

Theoretically speaking, this could be the end for russia

 

[forcetrip]

I think Prig thought he could kick out Shoigun and install a general of his liking with a little bit of pressure. Hearing Putin now it seems things are not going to go as planned for wagner. You will see a lot of " I have left PTI " videos in the coming weeks when the FSB start rounding up the top guys families.

 

[jhungary]

Reminds me of the novel Red Storm Rising by Tom Clancy at the end of the book where the Russian military decided to start a coup after starting WW3 on false pretenses.

Well, it's the same here.

You have one group that was singled out, and this group argubly have had the best performance in this war so far, and you wanted to dissolve this group and take away their business.

I would have revolted if I were Prigozhin, was surprised he didn't do it sooner, watching him in the last 3 months is like watching a kettle to boil and waiting on it to spill...

 

[Oldman1]

I think Prig thought he could kick out Shoigun and install a general of his liking with a little bit of pressure. Hearing Putin now it seems things are not going to go as planned for wagner. You will see a lot of " I have left PTI " videos in the coming weeks when the FSB start rounding up the top guys families.

I don't know. Feels like Wagner is now his family. He talks to the prisoners prior to recruiting those, shows the bodies of his men that died, interacts with them, now realizes how this war started on false pretenses, etc.

Well, it's the same here.

You have one group that was singled out, and this group argubly have had the best performance in this war so far, and you wanted to dissolve this group and take away their business.

I would have revolted if I were Prigozhin, was surprised he didn't do it sooner, watching him in the last 3 months is like watching a kettle to boil and waiting on it to spill...

It really does. At most I figure he just really be pissed off and refuse to continue on fighting in Ukraine. But he went above and beyond that.

 

[jhungary]

This game is for sure going to cost him his life. Disagree on multiple things in this since those foriegn contracts only happen due to government approvals. Same with Blackwater, Xe or any other PMC outfit around the world. The US showed everyone the way how to deploy military off the books. Lowering the countries casualty numbers and pausible deniability in case they stomped on some civilians.

Where the cost associated for a merc and soldier could be developed in total life cycle. The military uses them at their peak while the Mercs use them at their end. So being paid for experience instead of their passion and their physical prowess. Stressed soldiers age faster.

Money probably has a big role in this but what is happening is straight suicide. What is Wagner's end game here? This flex is certainly the end of Prigozhin. But since I am rooting for Russia I am hoping thinks work out before its too late.

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.

Well, that's what he wanted now, to be in charge, or maybe not with Putin In charge. I mean, contract is one thing, you had to have people to complete contracts. And tell me what you think if you are Prigozhin and MOD issue an order having all Wagner sign a contract with Russia MOD?

What's Putin was doing is bad for Prigozhin business. He could have gotten contract from whoever in charge next (it may well be him if this coup turns out great) but for him, his people is more important asset than any contract, I mean, now, even if he have contract, who do he send to complete those?

On the other hand, you don't use merc to fight a war, you use them on and off, I know a lot of Blackwater (Xe now/) KBR and G4S guy, you don't hire them full time like how Russia did with these Wagner dude, you hire them in term, and pay a fixed fee, I was approached by KBR to do intel work for them in high risk zone, they are paying me $500,000 per contract, and that is 3 months on 3 months off with a vacation of my choice, sure, you won't pay $500,000 for driver or security guard but they also don't work 12 months on, and these merc have been deployed 15 months straight, say if you pay them the rate Blackwater pay their driver, you pay 15,000 a month, 15 months, that's 225k per head, instead of 40k you are paying those blackwater guy, and you are talking about 50,000+ Wagner soldier, you do the maths.

I am not saying it had no other issue than money, but money is pretty big one. I can't see how otherwise it would went over the threshold.

This is the Russian version of the Japanese February 26 incident.

Such a conflict will inevitably lead to the rise to power of military forces no matter how it ends. This is not good news for any country. The war in Ukraine is likely to shift from manageable to unmanageable.

Unless they can have a peaceful transition, which is highly unlikely, Russia would need to redeploy stuff DURING UKRIANIAN COUNTER OFFENSIVE. Which is not going to be optimal.

The war in Ukraine is finished for Russia, even with a peaceful transition, they won't trust anyone now other than people they can control, and the people they can directly control is shit. That's problem 1. Problem 2 is if they take out Wagner, they would lose a sizable chunk of combat power in Ukraine, even if these Wagner folks is not going to do anything in Russia. They aren't going back to Ukraine, which mean you will expect a sizeable push from the Ukrainian in the coming weeks once all these are done. And that would deal a killer blow to the Russian. And finally, you have other fringe group fighting in Ukraine. If they can do it to Putin Chef, they can do it to anyone, Kadyrov or anyone, they aren't going to support Russia from now on, even if they do, Kremlin would probably will have suspicious on them.