Russia Wagner Mutiny | Updates & Discussions

[MH.Yang]

lol, unless he tries to do a donald trump and run for the next presidency in Russia, this have no political issue on this, bear in mind, Russia is not a democratic country, Prigozhin wouldn't have a shot in politics if he pissed off Putin, which is what he is doing now.

As I said, if all 3 claim was genuine he would not follow Putin into this war. Because that is the same then and the same now, again, the only common factor is he was getting paid then, not now, and more than that, they are basically trying to take his company away, that's like taking his livelihood or you think he is willing to go back to open a Kebab restaurant now that he had done this??

This is the Russian version of the Japanese February 26 incident.

Such a conflict will inevitably lead to the rise to power of military forces no matter how it ends. This is not good news for any country. The war in Ukraine is likely to shift from manageable to unmanageable.

 

[forcetrip]

People seems to forget Wagner is a PMC, they aren't regular Russian formation. As much as I know PMC (I once ALMOST joined KBR and do intel work for them) is that PMC cares about only one thing. - Money

The problem for Wagner is, as long as they are deployed to Ukraine and fight the war for Russia, they cannot sell their service to third party, I read somewhere Wagner is losing 20-50 millions dollars of contract from these oversea works since the war begin, and in the beginning, I am pretty sure Prigozhin is compensated by Putin, but ask yourself this question. Would Russia have the money and resource to hire a PMC and fight war for them for 15 months paying 5-7 times the money normal Russian soldier get? This is not using Blackwater a few month here and there doing convoy work or sercurity work, this is regular fighting, this is combine assault, this is the big war. It is going to cost 10-20 times what US hiring Blackwater, or G4S becuase you are using them for high tempo, high intensity fighting.

I would think Russian money run dry for Wagner when they have to recruit from prison but then there are just that many prisoner you can recruit and they are probably going to be looping out all of them already. Which mean I would image Wagner is REALLY short staffed at this moment. And when you are short staffed, you taken out deployment, for normal army, that's A-OK, but for PMC, no deployment = no money. That's a big deal.

So I would say, part of it is Prigozhin playing games, and part of this is really because it hamper Prigozhin make money.

This game is for sure going to cost him his life. Disagree on multiple things in this since those foriegn contracts only happen due to government approvals. Same with Blackwater, Xe or any other PMC outfit around the world. The US showed everyone the way how to deploy military off the books. Lowering the countries casualty numbers and pausible deniability in case they stomped on some civilians.

Where the cost associated for a merc and soldier could be developed in total life cycle. The military uses them at their peak while the Mercs use them at their end. So being paid for experience instead of their passion and their physical prowess. Stressed soldiers age faster.

Money probably has a big role in this but what is happening is straight suicide. What is Wagner's end game here? This flex is certainly the end of Prigozhin. But since I am rooting for Russia I am hoping thinks work out before its too late.

Mercenaries and War: Understanding Private Armies Today

Mercenaries are more powerful than experts realize, a grave oversight. Those who assume they are cheap imitations of national armed forces invite disaster because for-profit warriors are a wholly

ndupress.ndu.edu

.

 

[MH.Yang]

This game is for sure going to cost him his life. Disagree on multiple things in this since those foriegn contracts only happen due to government approvals. Same with Blackwater, Xe or any other PMC outfit around the world. The US showed everyone the way how to deploy military off the books. Lowering the countries casualty numbers and pausible deniability in case they stomped on some civilians.

Where the cost associated for a merc and soldier could be developed in total life cycle. The military uses them at their peak while the Mercs use them at their end. So being paid for experience instead of their passion and their physical prowess. Stressed soldiers age faster.

Money probably has a big role in this but what is happening is straight suicide. What is Wagner's end game here? This flex is certainly the end of Prigozhin. But since I am rooting for Russia I am hoping thinks work out before its too late.

Mercenaries and War: Understanding Private Armies Today

Mercenaries are more powerful than experts realize, a grave oversight. Those who assume they are cheap imitations of national armed forces invite disaster because for-profit warriors are a wholly

ndupress.ndu.edu

.

What is scary is that no one on either side of the conflict blames the war in Ukraine. This shows that no matter who becomes the victor, they will continue to use the war to cleanse the opposition and control power. This is the Russian version of the 226 incident, and no matter who wins, it will end the same way.

 

[kingQamaR]

From a Russian point of view - this is becoming more alarming with each passing day.....a new Russian civil war IS increasingly likely......or just the removal of Putin.......?

Mercenaries and private security companies are the correct choice. The Russian and American governments can hire it to do the dirty work in many situations. The mistake of Russia was to let Wagner grow too fast, hold too much power and now they have lost control of it.

Having even one military force in your country that can challenge the army is a sign of a failed state. Having three or four is ridiculous. The fallout from Russias collapse is going to be disastrous

 

[forcetrip]

What is scary is that no one on either side of the conflict blames the war in Ukraine. This shows that no matter who becomes the victor, they will continue to use the war to cleanse the opposition and control power. This is the Russian version of the 226 incident, and no matter who wins, it will end the same way.

Usually these characters like Prigozhin become part of the Establishment. That happens when you cozy up to the Generals. Not the other way around. What he is doing is what has happened in the Islamic and Christian world for 2000 years. Small band of people or tribes rose up and became part of our history. Maybe that is what hes looking for.

 

[That Guy]

Aight, last update for today, gonna head to bed after this. Got work in the morning...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672490556759461888

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672489347814244354

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672486980884496384

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672487473014796290

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672488138285957125

 

[REhorror]

Why do they name their regiment following a German musician anyway?

 

[That Guy]

Why do they name their regiment following a German musician anyway?

Because Wagner was hitler'a favorite musician, and Wagner started out as a neonazi group that venerated hitler. Even their skull logo is a reference to the SS-totenkoph

 

[REhorror]

Because Wagner was hitler'a favorite musician, and Wagner started out as a neonazi group that venerated hitler. Even their skull logo is a reference to the SS-totenkoph

Big think.

 

[AlKardai]

Bro, I wake up and this happens.

How is this even possible bruh

I'm sure when I wake up tomorrow the Solomon Islands will have conquered the USA or something

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

 

[That Guy]

Okay, I couldn't help it, this is my final update today, for real this time.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672492623448121344

Okay, now I'm done. Good night everyone. See yall tomorrow.

 

[Oldman1]

Whose bright idea was to put to publically announce that Prigozhin will be jailed for 20 years?
This is basically forcing him to rebel, he cannot afford to die in prison.

Biggest mistake was the Russian military and government trying to put PMCs under their control prior to that. Obviously you saw that kind of resistance from Wagner and Russia decided to teach them a lesson which led to this.

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672477954117607428

 

[Oldman1]

People seems to forget Wagner is a PMC, they aren't regular Russian formation. As much as I know PMC (I once ALMOST joined KBR and do intel work for them) is that PMC cares about only one thing. - Money

The problem for Wagner is, as long as they are deployed to Ukraine and fight the war for Russia, they cannot sell their service to third party, I read somewhere Wagner is losing 20-50 millions dollars of contract from these oversea works since the war begin, and in the beginning, I am pretty sure Prigozhin is compensated by Putin, but ask yourself this question. Would Russia have the money and resource to hire a PMC and fight war for them for 15 months paying 5-7 times the money normal Russian soldier get? This is not using Blackwater a few month here and there doing convoy work or sercurity work, this is regular fighting, this is combine assault, this is the big war. It is going to cost 10-20 times what US hiring Blackwater, or G4S becuase you are using them for high tempo, high intensity fighting.

I would think Russian money run dry for Wagner when they have to recruit from prison but then there are just that many prisoner you can recruit and they are probably going to be looping out all of them already. Which mean I would image Wagner is REALLY short staffed at this moment. And when you are short staffed, you taken out deployment, for normal army, that's A-OK, but for PMC, no deployment = no money. That's a big deal.

So I would say, part of it is Prigozhin playing games, and part of this is really because it hamper Prigozhin make money.

Reminds me of the novel Red Storm Rising by Tom Clancy at the end of the book where the Russian military decided to start a coup after starting WW3 on false pretenses.