Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[jhungary]

What most people don't realize is that sanctions boycotting Russian oil only helped Russia. The sanctions caused a big spike in oil price, and Russia is still able to sell its oil to nations not participating in the boycott such as China and India. They also require payments for the oil to be made in Rubles. So in the end Russia got a huge increase to their petro revenues as well as a strengthened Ruble (which also lowers their cost of imports). At the same time the sanctions pummeled the west since we're paying higher oil prices. If the West really wants to punish Russia, we should drop the sanctions and incentivize our oil industry to crank up production

Actually, if US wanted to lower oil price, they could by taxing the Oil Company and force them to drill into reserve and increase production. Which they are probably 1 or 2 months away from doing them. US oil production jumped about 1 million bbl per day, that's not remotely enough to go over the gap

The problem is, why Exxon, BP and Shell want to do it when they can sell oil now for $120-$130 per barrel, I mean, doing so will just shoot themselves in their own foot. And Biden is too weak to push these oil giant (at least for now), Biden administration would most likely need to do those measure closer to Mid-Term because they can't afford high gas price during Mid-Term. But right now, there are nothing they can do.

On the other hand, once the US did that. then Russia will suffer, it's not logical to have oil price persisted at $120 a barrel. That would inflate a lot of basic infrastructure. Which mean the US is going to move to produce more, and most likely force OPEC to do the same, once that is done, Oil price would come back down to around 80 or 90 per barrel. When that happen, it would be game over for Russia, see, right now Russia is discounting their oil to sell to India and China, you can do that when oil price is high, but once it get back down to below 100 a barrel, then discount will not make sense because you can't earn money if the oil price is low. On the other hand, once EU decouple Russia oil (2023-2024ish) there are going to be surplus that even India and China cannot handle (you are talking about 4 to 5 millions barrel a day) India and China will only buy what they need plus what they can stash, any more than that is just wastage.

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1540720496676769792

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

The whole mechanism to destroy a society is to flood it with guns and let the locals kill each other. If necessary, one or more local thugs are supported by the puppeteers.

There is a whole sociology about the prevalence of alcohol and gun shops in black neighborhoods across America.

Yes, that is what Iran and the Gulf States including KSA did, both in Iraq and Syria.

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

De-Nazification is in full speed!

Spoiler: GRAPHIC: Ukrainian troops were ambushed and dead bodies are littering the ground.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1540989680807714817

Russian propagandists panic: the new Western artillery and missile systems are aimed with deadly accuracy at operations centers and ammunition dumps far behind the front lines.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1540666030313406464

Hitting schools became something to brag about? That is a desperation if you ask me. Now, how about this?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1540986789011537920

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1540993634304233475

 

[Abdul Rehman Majeed]

Actually, if US wanted to lower oil price, they could by taxing the Oil Company and force them to drill into reserve and increase production. Which they are probably 1 or 2 months away from doing them. US oil production jumped about 1 million bbl per day, that's not remotely enough to go over the gap

The problem is, why Exxon, BP and Shell want to do it when they can sell oil now for $120-$130 per barrel, I mean, doing so will just shoot themselves in their own foot. And Biden is too weak to push these oil giant (at least for now), Biden administration would most likely need to do those measure closer to Mid-Term because they can't afford high gas price during Mid-Term. But right now, there are nothing they can do.

On the other hand, once the US did that. then Russia will suffer, it's not logical to have oil price persisted at $120 a barrel. That would inflate a lot of basic infrastructure. Which mean the US is going to move to produce more, and most likely force OPEC to do the same, once that is done, Oil price would come back down to around 80 or 90 per barrel. When that happen, it would be game over for Russia, see, right now Russia is discounting their oil to sell to India and China, you can do that when oil price is high, but once it get back down to below 100 a barrel, then discount will not make sense because you can't earn money if the oil price is low. On the other hand, once EU decouple Russia oil (2023-2024ish) there are going to be surplus that even India and China cannot handle (you are talking about 4 to 5 millions barrel a day) India and China will only buy what they need plus what they can stash, any more than that is just wastage.

The first thing that was signed by Biden was scrapping the Keystone XL pipeline. Oil companies are not investing as they see no future for oil beyond another 5 years. All car companies are phasing out IC engine cars and moving to all electric cars in the next 5 years.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

doesn't matter, ukraine elected a government in fair elections, that government was ousted not by a subsequent fair election but a color revolution, ukraine nazis ambushed peaceful russia loving ukranians and incinerated them, if ukraine was so pro eu why not just wait to the polls instead of inciting violence and chaos influencing voters
btw where in the world does anyone get 73% in voting except corrupt shitholes

Ukraine elected a parliament and a President. The President fled when he was about to be impeached. He remained President until the end of his term but an acting President was elected since he refused to do his job.
Ukraine held new elections as planned in 2015. The Parliament continued working.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541031071072002049

Russia launched missiles into civilian apartment buildings in Kyiv today. Another in a long list of Russian war crimes

 

[kingQamaR]

Actually, if US wanted to lower oil price, they could by taxing the Oil Company and force them to drill into reserve and increase production. Which they are probably 1 or 2 months away from doing them. US oil production jumped about 1 million bbl per day, that's not remotely enough to go over the gap

The problem is, why Exxon, BP and Shell want to do it when they can sell oil now for $120-$130 per barrel, I mean, doing so will just shoot themselves in their own foot. And Biden is too weak to push these oil giant (at least for now), Biden administration would most likely need to do those measure closer to Mid-Term because they can't afford high gas price during Mid-Term. But right now, there are nothing they can do.

On the other hand, once the US did that. then Russia will suffer, it's not logical to have oil price persisted at $120 a barrel. That would inflate a lot of basic infrastructure. Which mean the US is going to move to produce more, and most likely force OPEC to do the same, once that is done, Oil price would come back down to around 80 or 90 per barrel. When that happen, it would be game over for Russia, see, right now Russia is discounting their oil to sell to India and China, you can do that when oil price is high, but once it get back down to below 100 a barrel, then discount will not make sense because you can't earn money if the oil price is low. On the other hand, once EU decouple Russia oil (2023-2024ish) there are going to be surplus that even India and China cannot handle (you are talking about 4 to 5 millions barrel a day) India and China will only buy what they need plus what they can stash, any more than that is just wastage.

Russia exports about 5 million bbl/day of crude oil and another ~4 million bbl/day of refined products. OPEC produces about 40 million bbl/day. OPEC has decided to increase production by 0.4 million bbl/day but appears unable to increase production by that amount without massive further investment.

Middle Eastern oil producers simply do not have the capacity to make up for foregone Russian exports.

If sanctions against Russian oil were completely effective, the price of oil would skyrocket, the world economy would collapse and political instability would ensue. However, sanctions are unlikely to have more than a 10–20% effect on Russian exports. China and India will be happy to purchase Russian oil at a discount and many third parties will emerge who will re-label Russian products as their own. When there is money to be made, Russian oil will find its buyers.

 

[Apollon]

What most people don't realize is that sanctions boycotting Russian oil only helped Russia. The sanctions caused a big spike in oil price, and Russia is still able to sell its oil to nations not participating in the boycott such as China and India. They also require payments for the oil to be made in Rubles. So in the end Russia got a huge increase to their petro revenues as well as a strengthened Ruble (which also lowers their cost of imports). At the same time the sanctions pummeled the west since we're paying higher oil prices. If the West really wants to punish Russia, we should drop the sanctions and incentivize our oil industry to crank up production

How about we keep sanctions and crank up own production. Sounds better

 

[jhungary]

The first thing that was signed by Biden was scrapping the Keystone XL pipeline. Oil companies are not investing as they see no future for oil beyond another 5 years. All car companies are phasing out IC engine cars and moving to all electric cars in the next 5 years.

Keystone XL is processing pipeline, this is not the main transport pipeline.

Russia exports about 5 million bbl/day of crude oil and another ~4 million bbl/day of refined products. OPEC produces about 40 million bbl/day. OPEC has decided to increase production by 0.4 million bbl/day but appears unable to increase production by that amount without massive further investment.

Middle Eastern oil producers simply do not have the capacity to make up for foregone Russian exports.

If sanctions against Russian oil were completely effective, the price of oil would skyrocket, the world economy would collapse and political instability would ensue. However, sanctions are unlikely to have more than a 10–20% effect on Russian exports. China and India will be happy to purchase Russian oil at a discount and many third parties will emerge who will re-label Russian products as their own. When there is money to be made, Russian oil will find its buyers.

Look at it this way, whatever China and Indian is buying from before the war is going to be switching to supply EU which was left void by the Russian gas, at the same time, Russia would supply China and India for cheap gas.

Problem is, you don't have the infrastructure to switch, and that's for both side, and eventually, as I said, oil price is going to come down, either the switch is successfully made, or US increase their oil production, and once that happen, Russia would be in worse shape because they need to sell that cheap to China and India.

It is not going to be effective in 4 months, this is going to be a long term thing.

 

[_Nabil_]

Actually, if US wanted to lower oil price, they could by taxing the Oil Company and force them to drill into reserve and increase production. Which they are probably 1 or 2 months away from doing them. US oil production jumped about 1 million bbl per day, that's not remotely enough to go over the gap

The problem is, why Exxon, BP and Shell want to do it when they can sell oil now for $120-$130 per barrel, I mean, doing so will just shoot themselves in their own foot. And Biden is too weak to push these oil giant (at least for now), Biden administration would most likely need to do those measure closer to Mid-Term because they can't afford high gas price during Mid-Term. But right now, there are nothing they can do.

On the other hand, once the US did that. then Russia will suffer, it's not logical to have oil price persisted at $120 a barrel. That would inflate a lot of basic infrastructure. Which mean the US is going to move to produce more, and most likely force OPEC to do the same, once that is done, Oil price would come back down to around 80 or 90 per barrel. When that happen, it would be game over for Russia, see, right now Russia is discounting their oil to sell to India and China, you can do that when oil price is high, but once it get back down to below 100 a barrel, then discount will not make sense because you can't earn money if the oil price is low. On the other hand, once EU decouple Russia oil (2023-2024ish) there are going to be surplus that even India and China cannot handle (you are talking about 4 to 5 millions barrel a day) India and China will only buy what they need plus what they can stash, any more than that is just wastage.

Oil price in December 2021 was $74, Russians most optimistic predictions where on that basis, so even if the Oil prices go down to $80-90 it's still good for them.

China and India won't stop buying rebated Oil, they are eager to boost their economy and be more competitive than US/ UE.

Russian won't give back any conquered land, don't be delusional, the West should settle for peace and look forward.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541038844623175685

 

[MH.Yang]

The bad news is that the temperature is high.

The good news is that coal can be used to generate electricity again.

The bad news is that many coal mines have been closed, and many enterprises producing coal machinery and equipment have been patented by the Chinese, even the company itself.

The good news is that the mechanical equipment made in China is no worse than that made in Germany.

The bad news is that even with the equipment in place, there are not enough skilled workers to dig coal.

The good news is that Ukraine has enough skilled coal workers.

The bad news is that Ukrainian coal workers are mainly concentrated in Donbas, the Russian speaking region in the East.

The good news is that the introduction of modern and intelligent coal mines in China does not require many workers at all.

The bad news is that modern and intelligent mines need Huawei 5G.

 

[Apollon]

Oil price in December 2021 was $74, Russians most optimistic predictions where on that basis, so even if the Oil prices go down to $80-90 it's still good for them.

China and India won't stop buying rebated Oil, they are eager to boost their economy and be more competitive than US/ UE.

Russian won't give back any conquered land, don't be delusional, the West should settle for peace and look forward.

Why should we settle for peace? We currently demilitarize russia. Kill high numbers of their command staff and destroy their equipment. Russia is broken for decades to replace those losses