Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[That Guy]

Ok I stand corrected, I mixed, should have been 10$ and not 1$ against 50K or so Rubles. But it was still pretty bad. There were even bank notes in 500,000 Ruble denomination lol.


"Survival is not the point - countries like Somalia also exist."

Ok where do you want to start:

1) Russia produces everything which she needs - Food, Raw Materials, Oil, Gas in abundance
2) China can fill the gap for technology related imports
3) Russia even now, under the worst sanctions, getting 1 billion $ dollars a day (!) from those very same countries which have put sanctions on her
4) Russia and China have a massive Gas export deal
5) German car industry is completely dependent on Russian raw material
6) Russia sits on some of the largest reserves of gold
7) Russia is a major military power
8) Russia has stuff which world needs and she will find customers with innovative ways of payment

It is not mere survival, it is living like a middle income country. Do you expect given all the above factors Russia will collapse? Well my friend you are in for a big surprise. Stay tuned. I will ask you after a year or 2 when Russian Oligarch boats again start sailing to forbidden ports.

If anything, by cutting off Russia from SWIFT, US has shoot herself in the foot. Even for a non economist like me it is obvious that it will put US Dollar as a reserve currency of the world under huge pressure.

1) Not really. The Russians rely on raw material from foreign forces as well.

2) Sure, but considering what happened with the tires, not only would the Russians be nervous about it, but they'd consider it humiliating to rely on foreign tech, when they've for decades said they have superior tech to the Chinese.

3) $1 billion, yes. However, they're losing $10 billion a day on this war, so they're $9 billion in the red.

4) and the Chinese are gonna absolutely blackmail them. The Chinese are businessmen, before they're allies. This is a golden opportunity to turn Russia into an economic puppet.

5) they'll survive and find other sources.

6) good luck.

7) ha...haha...HAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHA..

8)..HAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAAHHA! Man that's funny. Other than wheat, no one really cares much about Russian tech, at least not after this war, which has been humiliating for the Russians.

 

[coffee_cup]

For general knowledge:

Manipulation. A group of telegram channels administered by Russian intelligence services claim that Zelensky is using civilians as a weapon against the Russian military.

Manipulators involve the fact that Ukrainians are not evacuated from cities that are regularly under attack. Detector Media recorded such rhetoric on the fourth day of the war, but it is very dangerous to evacuate civilians in large numbers, both then and now, without green corridors.

The propagandists explain that Zelensky is deliberately making sacrifices among the civilians in order to maintain the image for the media and foreign partners. As if, that's how Ukraine is asking for weapons.

#DisinfoChronicle. Kremlin disinformation about the military offensive in Ukraine

Detector Media collects and documents real-time chronicles of the Kremlin disinformation about the Russian invasion. Ukraine for decades has been suffering from Kremlin disinformation. Here we document all narratives, messages, and tactics, which Russia is using from February 17th, 2022...

detector.media

@Hassan Al-Somal
@coffee_cup

Ok fine.

What do you make of those African students video few pages back who are protesting that Ukranian people are not letting them go and asking them to stay or even fight instead?

Propaganda?



PS: I just want to make it clear, I am not pro Russia or anti Ukraine, I like them both.
Just too tired of one sided Western propaganda and brainwashing of general public ... and all those non-stop revolutions and Western ignited wars everywhere.

 

[sammuel]

~

" Russia will stop 'in a moment' if Ukraine meets terms "​

Sounds optimistic does it not ?

So here are the terms :


1. "They should make amendments to the constitution according to which Ukraine would reject any aims to enter any bloc." ( in other words no NATO )


2. they should recognize that Crimea is Russian territory and that they need to recognize that Donetsk and Lugansk are independent states.


3. Russia "will finish" demilitarization of the country . . .


I think that this third term reveals clearly what Putin is all about , and hope I would not have to read on this forum those who try to understand Putin's side .

No , it is not about NATO , No it is not like the Cuba missile crises like some here tried to argue. It is about a cruel dictator that invaded a country and wishes to leave it helpless , at his mercy and under his control.

Russia will stop 'in a moment' if Ukraine meets terms - Kremlin

Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.

www.reuters.com

 

[That Guy]

Ok, you dont like 100s of thousands and consider 1000s as massive, fine.

Lets fine tune then: Do you see BLM sorta riots in Russia then? Because though anything less than that could be significant for Western media consumption but has no real value on ground.


Heck, in London alone more than million people marched to stop the war in Iraq and it didnt do a shyt.

Whatever form they take, there will be people on the streets.

Also, the war protests were not meant to topple the government, if it was, they would have done a lot more.

 

[Wood]

 

[Elias MC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1500914661545451525

 

[coffee_cup]

1) Not really. The Russians rely on raw material from foreign forces as well.

Can you list which raw material is Russia dependent on and who provides it?

2) Sure, but considering what happened with the tires, not only would the Russians be nervous about it, but they'd consider it humiliating to rely on foreign tech, when they've for decades said they have superior tech to the Chinese.

This is not an argument, it is rhetoric.

3) $1 billion, yes. However, they're losing $10 billion a day on this war, so they're $9 billion in the red.

Can you back up your claim with some authentic sources? That right now Russia is losing $10 billion a day? And with authentic sources I mean neutral and not that usual Western propaganda mouth pieces.

4) and the Chinese are gonna absolutely blackmail them. The Chinese are businessmen, before they're allies. This is a golden opportunity to turn Russia into an economic puppet.

The argument is about Russia surviving and living as a middle income country and not about whose political camp she will end up.

5) they'll survive and find other sources.

And until then, they will have to do business with Russia, ;-)

6) good luck.

So Russian gold reserves are not disputed. Good that we agree on some point.

7) ha...haha...HAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHA..

Hysteria? Out of arguments? Rhetoric?

8)..HAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAAHHA! Man that's funny. Other than wheat, no one really cares much about Russian tech, at least not after this war, which has been humiliating for the Russians.

More rhetoric.

 

[Elias MC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1500916476726984708

https://twitter.com/x/status/1500915669168267264

https://twitter.com/x/status/1500916771091533830

 

[thetutle]

Did west help any country in former Yugoslavia rebuild?

Of course it did. Croatia, Bosnia and Serbian. Especially Bosnia. Whole cities and villages were rebuilt. Just have a look at pictures of Mostar and Sarajevo, before and after.

How come every one is still poor after 20 years?

Poor is a relative term. When you have a country like Austria 140km away, yes you are poor. But on a world or even eastern European level, its not that poor. The average wage in Bosnia is over 500 Euro per month and things are pretty cheap. Few have a mortgage and they all live in properties they own without any debt. Bosnia has abut 1.1 million registered cars in a population of about 3 milion.

Seems like everyone that can has left. why stay in a war torn and impoverished country when you can leave by walking across a border?

People dont leave because they are poor necessarily, most leave because they want a bit if an adventure and try something new. Some want to live in a country with cleaner streets. Where things are better organised. Some hear about the tremendous wealth of the EU and go to Austria and work as cleaners for 1,200 Euro per month even though they had a job in Bosnia working in shop for 400 Euro per month. After having to pay rent in Austria they aren't any better off and return to Bosnia. Some go to Sweden and get paid pretty good but realise noone wants to be their friend and and up being depressed and come back to Bosnia. And some just stay depressed and live in Sweden all their life. So no migration is permanent.

But if everyone capable leaves how do you rebuild?

Bosnias industrial output is increasing by over 10% per year, so the people left behind seem to be more productive the less of them there are. In the last 10 years Bosnias exports increased form 4 billion Euro to almost 8 billion Euro this year. InshaAllah.

Ukraine is going to be even worse. Their GDP per capita was already not so good. At this rate it is going to be like Afghanistan. Everyone with even 0.1% capability to leave will leave even if they have to scrub dishes. They're used to modern amenities and it's much easier to move to Germany or UK than to struggle in Ukraine, they aren't a traditional society like Afghanistan.

Ukraine was quite poor, maybe the poorest in Europe, but even after it has been levelled to the gound, it will be richer than places like afganstan, and once EU starts investing into a free and democratic Ukraine it will quickly Cath up like other eastern EU countries.

Ukranians are a capable and clever people.

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1500694924412563456

 

[LeGenD]

Ok I stand corrected, I mixed, should have been 10$ and not 1$ against 50K or so Rubles. But it was still pretty bad. There were even bank notes in 500,000 Ruble denomination lol.


"Survival is not the point - countries like Somalia also exist."

Ok where do you want to start:

1) Russia produces everything which she needs - Food, Raw Materials, Oil, Gas in abundance
2) China can fill the gap for technology related imports
3) Russia even now, under the worst sanctions, getting 1 billion $ dollars a day (!) from those very same countries which have put sanctions on her
4) Russia and China have a massive Gas export deal
5) German car industry is completely dependent on Russian raw material
6) Russia sits on some of the largest reserves of gold
7) Russia is a major military power
8) Russia has stuff which world needs and she will find customers with innovative ways of payment

It is not mere survival, it is living like a middle income country. Do you expect given all the above factors Russia will collapse? Well my friend you are in for a big surprise. Stay tuned. I will ask you after a year or 2 when Russian Oligarch boats again start sailing to forbidden ports.

If anything, by cutting off Russia from SWIFT, US has shoot herself in the foot. Even for a non economist like me it is obvious that it will put US Dollar as a reserve currency of the world under huge pressure.

Venezuela has largest reserves of oil in the world:

The World's Largest Oil Reserves by Country In 2024

Read how Venezuela dominates the world in Oil Reserves according to the most recent data from OPEC, and compare with the next highest ranked countries.

www.worldatlas.com

In Venezuela, a Single Oil Rig Works World’s Biggest Reserves

Venezuela’s fall from oil superpower to failing producer can be illustrated in one image: a single drilling rig working the world’s largest oil reserves.

www.bloomberg.com

Yet Venezuelan economy is in shambles. Why?

China could not rescue Venezuela either:

China (CHN) and Venezuela (VEN) Trade | The Observatory of Economic Complexity

Find the latest trade data and tariffs between China and Venezuela.

oec.world

Venezuela’s Oil Industry: Challenges and Illusions - Venezuelanalysis

The oil industry continues to be by far the most important sector of the Venezuelan economy. Though it seems unlikely the production levels obtained prior to 2014 can be reached, stabilizing and raising oil output is key to any prospect of economic recovery in the short and medium-term...

venezuelanalysis.com

Venezuela's oil industry faces serious obstacles on all levels. The most important hindrance is US sanctions (we will return to the theme later). These unilateral coercive measures reinforce and aggravate other problems.

A country can be blessed with natural resources but it needs customers (EXPORTS), political stability, anti-corruption measures, and a sound economic policy to be prosperous. Conflicts are not helpful.

Now let us have a look at Russian EXPORTS for perspective:

Russia Exports By Country

Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. Russia Exports By Country - was last updated on Sunday, July 7, 2024.

tradingeconomics.com

Russia's 2021 Exports By Sector And Country - Russia Briefing News

Russia is diversifying, widening and increasing its export base The Russian Federal Customs Service (FCS) has released data that shows for the first ten months of 2021, Russia’s total exports reached $388.4 billion, an increase of 42.8% over 2020. This has been due to a number of factors, not...

www.russia-briefing.com

Russia's Top Five Trading Partners were responsible for 86.9% of all trade between January-October last year and were as follows;

China (US$112.4 billion)
Germany (US$46.1 billion)
Netherlands (US$37 billion)
US (US$28.8 billion)
Turkey (US$25.7 billion)

When you consider Europe as a collective - it is the largest EXPORT destination for Russian goods.

How can Russia substitute much of Europe with other countries? China can only do so much for Russia.

Does China even need to buy numerous Russian goods when it produces so much by itself?

Russia is a major military power? No shit sherlock. This military power will erode through time as crippling sanctions will take full effect and bite very hard. A country needs handsome budget to afford a large and advanced military force.

J.P. Morgan: War Spells Doom for Russian Economy - TheStreet

Western sanctions are making their mark on Russia's economy, with supposed advantages turning into problems.

www.thestreet.com

Morgan Stanley Says Russia’s Set for Venezuela-Style Default

(Bloomberg) -- The odds of Russia making its foreign debt payments are diminishing as bond prices fall, recession in the nation looms and various payment restrictions pile up after the invasion of Ukraine, according to Morgan Stanley & Co.Most Read from BloombergStakes Rise as Putin Says His War...

ca.finance.yahoo.com

If Putin is sensible, he will come to terms with impending Russian economic meltdown and consider political solution for Ukraine.

 

[coffee_cup]

Whatever form they take, there will be people on the streets.

Also, the war protests were not meant to topple the government, if it was, they would have done a lot more.

So you see George Soros funding and Victoria Nuland kinda people finding their way into Russia and starting Maidan type of "revolution" to topple the president? ;-)

 

[mmr]

1) Not really. The Russians rely on raw material from foreign forces as well.

2) Sure, but considering what happened with the tires, not only would the Russians be nervous about it, but they'd consider it humiliating to rely on foreign tech, when they've for decades said they have superior tech to the Chinese.

3) $1 billion, yes. However, they're losing $10 billion a day on this war, so they're $9 billion in the red.

4) and the Chinese are gonna absolutely blackmail them. The Chinese are businessmen, before they're allies. This is a golden opportunity to turn Russia into an economic puppet.

5) they'll survive and find other sources.

6) good luck.

7) ha...haha...HAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHA..

8)..HAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAAHHA! Man that's funny. Other than wheat, no one really cares much about Russian tech, at least not after this war, which has been humiliating for the Russians.

seems ppl dont understand basic economic fundamentals how west will make Russia a bankrupt country which will soon default and will be the like of Venezuela or north Koreans.

they really need to understand why london and ny handle trillions daily. how bond market work...how corporate world works...and importance of access to liquidity and foreign currency. its just waste of time lecturing these ppl

 

[That Guy]

Can you list which raw material is Russia dependent on and who provides it?



This is not an argument, it is rhetoric.


Can you back up your claim with some authentic sources? That right now Russia is losing $10 billion a day? And with authentic sources I mean neutral and not that usual Western propaganda mouth pieces.


The argument is about Russia surviving and living as a middle income country and not about whose political camp she will end up.


And until then, they will have to do business with Russia, ;-)

So Russian gold reserves are not disputed. Good that we agree on some point.

Hysteria? Out of arguments? Rhetoric?

More rhetoric.

Be back tomorrow, gonna go to bed. I'll answer you tomorrow. What you wrote is funny.

 

[gambit]

It's a world leader, not a religious figure. I assume it's fine. I do it all the time.

He said: it would be nice to have clarity

As if it truly strained his mental faculties to associate Putin <=> Poutine.

This is not about 'clarity' but about idol worshipping. He is just ticked off that an American DARED to insult his idol.

I had poutine before. It is a good Canadian comfort food dish. So am not sure what he is complaining about.