Hassan Al-Somal
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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments
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It's the same country. You cant really invade your own country can you?
I am hoping they can negotiate a away. They probably can. I am hoping china is not an imperialist power. They haven't shown themselves to be so far. But Russia has in the last 200 years.
I am definitely less concerned about china. Or maybe I just dont understand them like I understand Russians.
Hassan Al-Somal
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lightning F57
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Dont need to be an intelligence director to work that one out.
Hassan Al-Somal
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Wergeland 2.0
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Not my fault if dear leader want to be the new Hitler. hence the Putler.
Weapons of the war in Ukraine
From ballistic missiles to armed drones, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is proving the devastating power of modern weaponry.
graphics.reuters.com
Hassan Al-Somal
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With each 24 hrs passed, this argument (highlighted) become increasingly less tenable. Am going to look at this from an airpower perspective.
Ukraine is a sophisticated country. More than Iraq and definitely more than Afghanistan. Why does this matter? Because the more sophisticated a country, the greater its wealth are concentrated in the cities, and Russia is slowly destroying the cities via first encirclement then artillery to reduce the cities to rubble. Essentially, destroying the country's wealth.
The longer the absence of Russian airpower over Ukraine per the relative power levels chart above, the greater the intensity and destruction of ground Ukraine if Russia is going to commit their 1st tier combat forces LATER as you posited.
Airpower requires the best of everything a country has just to create a basic air force. It is only when an air force meet against another air force in combat is when that sophistication manifest in a binary win or lose outcome, and because airpower operate at higher speed of operations than other powers, airpower have a greater affect on time than other powers. In simpler language, the sooner you take control of an airspace, the more time you give to ground forces, especially if they are directly below the contested airspace. Because airpower operate at speed greater than other forces, when an air force attack a ground force, time is compressed for the enemy ground force. Each attack is faster than the ground forces can response. The only respite the ground force have is when the attacker reorient himself to attack again. But if there are multiple air attackers, the ground forces will have no respite at all. Ask the Iraqi Army for this experience.
In the air, there is no negotiated settlement possible. Either you win or you lose, and if you lose, you die. Am not saying the pilot die, even though he often does, but that you lose a valuable asset: the pilot-aircraft asset. Without one, the other is useless. An aircraft is not like a rifle where anyone can learn how to become lethal in one day. An aircraft require complex and sophisticated training methodologies and time in order for that pilot-aircraft combination to become valuable, so instead of one day it is more like one yr.
Currently, air forces all over the world are seeing 'Air parity' in Ukraine when it should be 'Air supremacy' in Russia's favor. Each air asset that Russia lose, whether fixed or rotary wing, in this slow march that you are saying for Russia in order to conserve forces, it will be tougher for Russia to subjugate Ukraine and greater destruction on Ukrainian wealth which equals to destroying Ukraine. What am saying is that to give your argument validity, that Russia is not seeking to destroy Ukraine but only capitulation thru ground pressure, Russian airpower should have been at the 'Air superiority - Air denial' on the first day and escalated to 'Air supremacy - Air incapability' on the second day.
Does this mean Russia cannot win? Russia will win even at this pace. But the longer this 'Air parity - Air parity' status exists, Ukraine will suffer greater destruction as time go by as Russian ground forces struggles against Ukrainian ground forces because Russian airpower is not putting enough pressure on Ukrainian ground forces. The longer this 'Air parity - Air parity' status exists, the less impressive the VKS will be. The negative impression maybe unwarranted, but it will occur even if Russia eventually raised that status in its favor. The airpower lesson here is this: achieve Air Superiority ASAP no matter what may happen on the ground.
Few adjustment to your assumptions:
1. Ukrainian air defence is simply huge, and fully complete
2. Current SAMs on both sides are generation 4+ SAMs, which should be resistant to Soviet era anti-radiation weapons of both sides.
3. Ukrainian planes were road/field basing for weeks already. Their airforce cannot be killed in one big decisive swoop now.
No side can hope to gain air superiority in a red on red conflict. The air defence always beats air offence for as long as both sides use Soviet hardware.
Even if Russia will wear down Ukrainians to near nothing, they will still have some minimal form of air defence, and air cover to the last day.
IMHO, they are not following the Soviet military doctrine for as long as the order of battle goes.
I would say what we see now is a crystallisation of what we can call a modern Russian doctrine instead. We are still figuring out what it is, but it is what Russian military been sticking to consistently in all its post-Soviet conflicts.
Nearly all Russian wars after 1991 were wars in between Ex-USSR states, and their satellites.
Russian ministry of foreign affairs says that advanced weapons deliveries to Ukraine risk the safety of civilian air traffic.
It sounds like a threat to shoot down civilian airliners by Russia.
I think This is a certainty, because the stingers and javelins are really starting to hurt them.
It sounds like a threat to shoot down civilian airliners by Russia.
I think This is a certainty, because the stingers and javelins are really starting to hurt them.
Ukraine has 9k33 m2, but no m3
If it's Ukrainian, why it is in the middle of the road, and not under a camo net somewhere in the forest, far from commotion?
Gripen9
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And the great game keeps playing out.
Biggest winner is the US. Russia after this misadventure will be significantly weakened. US only has to worry about China
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