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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

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Major general of Russian army 'liquidated', says Ukraine​

A senior Russian army commander has been killed in fighting near Kharkiv, according to Ukraine's ministry of defence.
It says in a statement that Major General Vitaly Gerasimov died alongside a number of other army officers, with others wounded.
He is said to have taken part in previous Russian operations in Chechnya and Syria.
The claims come after Western officials said on Friday that three Russian commanders had so far been killed; including another major general, Andrei Sukhovetsky, apparently shot by a sniper.
Ukraine also claimed on Monday that more than 11,000 Russian personnel had so far died in the war - with 110 aircraft destroyed.
 
The grime reality is the Russian army is still composed in vast majority of soviet era junk albeit a small part of them are modernized.

Actually I think it might be junk vs junk as I'm sure that's pretty much what the Ukrainians have
 
I see them having a lot of territorials now, but no armour, or heavy armaments to arm them now.

The best use of them is to send them to southwest to take cities.

Russians show follow pattern: they capture a city, extinguish resistance by regular forces, and then jump to the next one, while leaving only a token force begin to protect supply lines, and control the population.

I only seen very light forces on APCs intimidating the population there.

I bet they immediately wrapped their heavier force, and sent it eastward to Marioupol.

100k men with Kalashnikovs can probably do something about few APCs.
I’m more concerned about young men from the US and UK mainly coming to Ukraine with false expectations and having no idea an active war zone is like.

A few things to digest here really since we are on the subject:

1. Ukraine should focus on arming and. Developing it’s national volunteers into reserves and whilst they lack any real resemblance of a military that’s not to say you can’t branch people out based on previous life skills ie mechanics, electricians and plumbers (make good sappers), drivers, anyone with comms experience slap them on radios and BTS maintainance - Russians have been taking our repeater towers and BTS and shot themselves in the foot since they are using short range Moto’s and Baofengs.

2. Foreign volunteers should only be accepted if they are ex military with add on skills such as sappers, medics, SF types - the rest of the Call of Duty types should be thanked and advised to go back home( and I’ll explain why I feel this way).

I’ve already made my position on foreign fighters very clear in a previous post but I strongly feel that the mixed messages from politicians in the west and the soft cuddly messages from the Ukrainians are misleading.

Here is why, judging by some of the videos of volunteers on telegram and elsewhere there are two categories of volunteers joining the Ukrainian foreign legion:

1. Ex military with plenty of experience and seasoned vets

2. Complete greenhorns who don’t have a clue what they are doing.

Whilst I have explained my concern for combat chasers and disgruntled vets in my previous post and the need to risk manage them post their return - for now I am more concerned about those who’s only introduction to combat are movies and video games.

To those people who fall into the second category I would like to say the following:

Firstly ask yourself why you are going? Is it for the right reasons?

Pre travel:

  • Research where you are going: medical issues there and other associated risks such as the fact that Ukraine is dealing with Multiple Drug Resistant Tuberculosis.
  • Have you had your teeth checked (dentists won’t be available)
  • Checked you have all your shots (heb b etc)
  • Had a full once over from a doctor to ensure you are fit and well and your sciatica or asthma isn’t going to flare up in the middle of nowhere.
Documents:
  • have you got all your docs (Poland requires all non Schengen country travellers to have a passport no older than 10 years with a minimum of 6 months validity remaining from the point of entry to the day of your return)
  • Have you applied for the correct visa(s) - polish visas are incredibly confusing (I should know I’ve been there).
  • Flights: Open return/one way or flex?
  • Flash money??
  • PCR tests = Poland still needs them.
  • Are you vaccinated - if you’re not fully vaccinated (2 shots and a booster) you will be refused entry or required to undergo a 10 day quarantine at your own expense?
  • Have you made a will ( yes because there is a high chance you will die)
  • Have you taken photographs of your face and profile and any tattoos and shared these wit your family or trusted contact
  • Have you discussed proof of life safe word with trusted contact or family member back home
  • Have you kept your medical history and immunisation record with you on a usb/phone/paper?
  • Have you considered a big out plan and how you will extract yourself should things go wrong (and they will).
  • Insurance? People ignore this.
  • Research where you are going- route and mode of transport- have a travel plan of some sort
  • Write down your blood type and any allergies on the rear of your helmet or on your body armour
Equipment:

Comms:
do you have a phone - did you wipe it or get a burner phone
  • Will your sim work in that part of the world?
  • Satcoms or SPOT terminal? do you have or can you afford a sat phone or similar terminal?
  • Radios: Ukrainians are asking volunteers to bring their own FRS or UHF radio - can you travel from your country of origin with one and so you know how to use it?
PPE & Clothing:
  • The Ukrainians have expressly stressed that all foreign volunteers are to bring their own PPE (helmet- body armour/ PC etc) so with that in mind:
  • Do you have the right Clothing for inclement weather including decent thermal layers ?
  • How about Weather resistant outers?
  • High quality boots: did you break them in?
  • Socks & underwear (never leave for a remote place with most enough socks and underwear)
  • ear muffs
  • Cover/lid (hat) a good quality thinsulate beanie hat is a minimum.
  • Stockings (yes this works)
  • Woollen or insulated gloves
  • Neoprene or shooting gloves
PPE:
  • Once again can you afford body armour - do you know what level of protection you need or the cut of the inserts/plates? I’ve seen a lot of folks on Twitter with steel plate in their carriers - if volunteers are going out and they try to save money do they know the difference between anti spall armour and steel plates that can spall?
Image attached:

C923F3B5-C81F-49C4-ABA7-1A985C4CE3B1.png


  • Helmets: do you go for a ASB style helmet to protect your noggin from bumps or are you going to invest in a ballistic helmet?

*Transport: does your country permit the carriage of such equipment in hold luggage?

  • Eye and Ear Protection: this is basic stuff but again do you have it?
  • Leather gloves / riggers gloves - at least 2 pairs
  • Respirators: do you carry one or do you not? Do you know how to use it and take care of it?
  • If not the minimum should be a few n95 and partical masks in case you need to help in search and rescue after an explosion or building collapse - also useful when helping in human remain retrieval.
Food:

if all you are taking with your is that plate carrier and helmet from eBay and a positive smile you are in for a rude awakening.

These people are at war and food & water among other things will be scarce - the last thing they need is some well intentioned lemon to turn up and become another mouth to feed - be self sufficient.

With that in mind it is important to remember the survival rules of threes:
  • 3 minutes without air
  • 3 hours without shelter (in harsh climate)
  • 3 days without water
  • 3 weeks without food
For food the minimum emergency food supply you should take is 72 hours in your grab bag and another 2 weeks supply in your tab/ruck. This sounds like a lot but in reality it isn’t and you can just buy dried food or expensive MREs it’s up to your choice and budget.

Water: waterborne diseases can really do a number on your system - so either consider a filter straw system or get a few boxes of coffee filters - a decent rugged canteen and a shit ton of aqua tabs - know how to use them.

(In an emergency you can also take water from the cistern of a toilet flush- although you will want to purify and filter the water first).

a few sachets of instant coffee/tea/chock milk and juice mix
Tools:
  • E-Tool (Shovel) for digging - if you don’t know how valuable this is - you really shouldn’t be going in the first place.
  • Knife: any full tang knife is your best friend/ failing that get a decent leather man.
  • Glow sticks? Need them? Get a set including IR
  • Fire starter kit or similar kit (poor man’s version is to get a waterproof container and store two or three lighters and matchboxes inside)
  • Paracord 50 meters
  • Flagging table /survey tape (orange)- can be used to mark our UXO /Hazard (but unless people know what they are looking for may be useless).
  • Compass & map (topographic)
  • Handheld GPS terminal
  • Sharpie pens
  • Chalk
  • Notepad and pens(pencils)
  • Spare batteries
  • Flashlight or headlamp
  • Elephant tape (duct tape)
  • Signal mirror and whistle
Shelter:
  • Sleeping bag
  • Ground mat
  • Bivvy sheet
  • Extra paracord 50m
Hygiene:
  • Paper roll or wet wipes (obvious)
  • Wash kit and tooth brush
  • Talcum powder - perf non perfumed
  • Roll on deodorant
  • Nail clippers
Medical(self):
  • IFAK: Individual first aid kit with NP airway
  • Chetosan or similar hemostatic dressing
  • Tourniquet x 2
  • Sterile syringes /w needles (multiple gauges)
  • Spare combat dressing or gauze and rolls
  • Blunt tip scissors or EMT shares
  • Forceps
  • Chest seal (if trained)
  • Decompression kit (if trained)
  • SAM split or similar portable split
  • Salt sachets or hydration tabs
  • ORS sachets 2 weeks supply
  • Laxatives
  • Calcium Tablets
  • Broad spectrum antibiotic
  • Oral pain relief : Paracetamol
  • Anti inflammatory : Ibuprofen
  • lidocaine cream or spray
  • A small packet of cloves or clove oil (excellent temporary pain relief for damaged teeth or cavities and also is an excellent field antibiotic)
  • Anti Septic cream or powder
  • Anti fungal powder
  • Insect repellant
  • Anti bite kit
  • Personal medication min x 2 months supply with prescription included
  • Spare spectacles in case with prescription written inside case
Good to have;
  • Wind up or battery radio: world band ones are good to keep up with the news
  • Book: pack a book with you - it can be anything that helps keep you sane and during the periods where it is “HURRY UP AND WAIT”.
  • Cigarettes - get local ones even if you don’t smoke as you can use these to barter with especially at checkpoints or with locals
  • Chocolate- great morale booster and also can use to barter with
——

As you can see this is a lot of kit and this is just personal stuff you would be expected to have on you to be moderately self reliant for a short period of time.

Now add to this skill at arms training, map and compass, field craft, being able to identify potential UXOs and basic principles of soldiering - all the basic bread and butter stuff and you can quickly see why letting these young and old well intentioned volunteers join an active war zone is a very bad idea.

Add to this the language barrier - only 18% of Ukrainians can speak English- this can prose a serious problem during combat where comms is key.

It’s not just turn up in some eBay tactical gear, grab a gun and yell up yours putin. I seriously worry about them.

Sorry if digressed but this is a very sore subject for me.
 
Have you noticed something about refugees in Ukraine and refugees in Syria?

Ukrainians: "My family leave,I go back to fight"

Syrians: "I come here first,my family come later ok"

View attachment 821807


Syrians didn't have the whole world arming them and supporting them. Stop comparing two situations that aren't comparable. It was a planned stalemate to make sure neither side wins the civil war. While both Russia and the West care about the Ukrainian cities and civilians, both powers were flattening Syrian towns and massacring Syrian civilians.
 
Stop comparing two situations

Never feed the troll... Just wait 20m+ will flee Ukraine and today is only 12th day of war.. It has not even barely started let it fester for years and see where things stand then.. We will then have serious talk..

I wanna see consistency, persistance, steadfastness and patience.. Years of grind not a month of engagements or months in that matter that is for pussies.. Show me years or decades of grind
 
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Russian side of the story.

Major military and political developments and major risks next (Excerpts)

Conclusions:

From the point of view of Russian combat operations, today has been most successful and tomorrow promises an even quicker domino effect on the Ukrainian defenses pretty much everywhere except the far west (what I now call the mini-Banderastan).

Politically, the only important news is that Lavrov and Kuleba are supposed to meet soon.

And yet, I will end with an area of great concern to me.

Here is how I see it and PLEASE tell me I am wrong!

  • The Ukraine has lost the war, she will be disarmed and denazified
  • The West is waging total informational and economic war against Russia and believing much of its own propaganda (which is fantastically dangerous!)
  • The western public has been sold nonsense about the Ukies being at the gates of Moscow and Russia being ready to surrender. Which means that when the reality will become undeniable there will be A LOT of VERY butthurt folks out there pointing fingers.
  • Economically speaking, Zerohedge put it best: “Carnage everywhere“!
  • Even much worse will be the folks who will try to still overturn this outcome. I am talking about the true nutcases in NATO (and in some sections of the USA ruling elites) which simply cannot even *imagine* that Russia holds all the cards, including the military one.
  • I can easily imagine, say, a Polish column with weapons and mercenaries crossing into the Ukraine and being wiped out by Russian missiles. I ask you this: what will NATO do next?
In fact, let me rephrase my question this way: is it at all possible that this war can end without a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia, keeping in mind that NATO cannot win and NATO cannot accept defeat?

Sadly, I don’t think so anymore, that kind of folly is a direct consequence of the Western PSYOPs which have convinced the folks in the West of two crucial things: 1) Russia cannot win and 2) Putin is bluffing.

I think that the folks in the Pentagon are smart enough to know that this is all bull, but the Eurorodents inside NATO and the EU?

Wouldn’t a military/political defeat of NATO in Banderastan not risk bringing down NATO as an organization?

Again, please tell me that I am wrong, but I don’t see how this war can stop before Russia shows NATO that nobody in Russia is bluffing and that any NATO country dumb enough to test that will be the target of missile strikes.

So, militarily, this war is pretty much over.

The future of a min-Banderastan is impossible for me to guess.

But I am seriously concerned that this war might expand and directly involve NATO/EU countries.

And it might involve nuclear strikes by either/both sides.

So, please tell me I am wrong and that the West does still have enough brains to step back from this abyss?

Does it?

Andrei

UPDATE: for the first time Russian TV has shown the Donbass operational cauldron. I added the contours of this cauldron in the making with the think black line:

(That blue area is where the Nazi types are surrounded)

Donbass-operational-cauldron-on-Russian-TV-1536x1072.jpg


 
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