Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536785109881331713

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536781851733393408

Same same, western weapons flow into Ukraine almost unhindered thru Poland and Romania.

Much less compared to the amount pouring into Vietnam from China during Vietnam war.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536792604775424007

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536791850648051713

I think HIMARS cannot survive very long in Donbas because Su-57 hunting it down.

 

[MeFishToo]

I think HIMARS cannot survive very long in Donbas because Su-57 hunting it down.

Those 3 operational Su-57 are not leaving Russia. If anything is hunting long range missile systems inside Ukraine, its going to be drones.
But then again, you belive Russia is able to monitor the entire Ukraine 24-7 eventhough they hardly have any optical surveillance satelites. FYI Russia is practically blind in orbit. Russia has no idea where those HIMARS are located, unless someone on the ground is telling them.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Those 3 operational Su-57 are not leaving Russia. If anything is hunting long range missile systems inside Ukraine, its going to be drones.
But then again, you belive Russia is able to monitor the entire Ukraine 24-7 eventhough they hardly have any optical surveillance satelites. FYI Russia is practically blind in orbit. Russia has no idea where those HIMARS are located, unless someone on the ground is telling them.

China provides Russia with intel from China's recon satellites. Ukrainian HIMARS aren't given long range missiles, only 34 km range basic rockets. It's pretty much the same as Uragan in terms of range. And we saw what happened to Ukraine's Uragans.

Not to mention Russia's attack choppers like Havoc and Alligator which fly low can prowl around and hunt down Ukrainian HIMARS after detecting and tracking them with radar.

 

[Paul2]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536358292708110339

It's so obvious. The only way somebody agrees to close oil when it passes $120, is when he doesn't get any money from that. That Khaftrar is likely to be even less autonomous than was thought before.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536832558595448832

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536833795390951425

 

[Paul2]

Well, tell me what Afghanistan can be used for then, and if so, as I said at the end, if we were to use it as a springboard to attack someone, would it be better off if we just annex the thing, I mean we have taken complete control of the country. There aren't really anyone or anything to stop us from stationing troop in Afghanistan permanently and start calling Afghan "American"

As for natural resource, again, we have 20 years in that place literally controlling anything and everything. So tell me why of the 5 big mine in Afghan, 4 belong to China and 1 belong to India??

And finally, it's not about Afghan going to Harvard or Oxford. It's about letting Afghan be what they want to be.

Do you know Taliban's troops numbers? ANA outnumbered them ∞ to 1. I would say even Kabul government staff outnumbered them alone. It's just nobody picked up the gun.

A famous cartoon where a mullah asks: "Who likes Taliban?" and then "Who wants to live under Taliban?"

ANA were in their majority very poor rural Afghans, and minorities. Rich, and educated Kabuli kids went to live abroad, especially ones whose parents got friends with Americans.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536834324460347394

 

[Paul2]

Are you for real? On day 1 of this conflict, NATO cable Zelenskyy to cede Donbas to Russia in order to avoid a full blown war because NATO didn't see anyway Ukrainian can fight this off, then when Mariupol is surrounded NATO talking about letting Russia have Mariupol and the Land Corridor. Now, 110 days has pass, we are still talking about this war.

In fact, Biden allegedly said that even before the war begin

MSN

www.msn.com

Problem is not whether I believe 1000 soldier has been killed, what I see is Russia have a high turn over issue, otherwise they will not raise the age to serve now to 50 and will not try to raise Battalion out of nothing. Unless you can tell me why these measure is in place that's logical, that point to the Russia have force generation problem. Which usually mean they are upping the tempo or have had a lot of casualty they need to replace. If this is the first one, we would see an expanding of battlefield and more equipment roll into the war, and we don't see either of them.

I don't know how many soldier Russian killed in this war, I can take an educated guess from Open Source resource to have a ball park figure, but I wouldn't say the war is going smoothly toward the Russian, judging from the stuff that they do and reading it between the line.

Lets return to the ballpark estimates. Russia has 7 million military age men, with now middle aged men being added to that in desperation.

Russian military + police + national guard + kgb is already 2m.

2m have rich parents, and they will evade draft, leave Russia for overseas. These people are irrelevant to the real economy. Few people with university education good enough to score a white collar job will go work as truck drivers, factory workers, or dockers.

So, you are left with 3m people on whom Russian economy hangs on by a thread. Many of them are university students under 24-25, so again deferrals, and a concern for hurting the labour force.

That's why I gave 2m people as a maximum mobilisation reserve Russia can provide without catastrophic economic consequences.

Out of 2m people in uniform, 5% already been "spent," and they absolutely cannot reduce the police numbers, on the opposite, they are increasing the police staff as quickly as the military.

A combat force of 300k-400k is the maximum what we can expect with Russia unless they are really suicidal. Realistically, there will be under 300k troops who ever stepped into Ukraine I believe.

A massive force nevertheless.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536839662957895680

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536843248764854272

Lets return to the ballpark estimates. Russia has 7 million military age men, with now middle aged men being added to that in desperation.

Russian military + police + national guard + kgb is already 2m.

2m have rich parents, and they will evade draft, leave Russia for overseas. These people are irrelevant to the real economy. Few people with university education good enough to score a white collar job will go work as truck drivers, factory workers, or dockers.

So, you are left with 3m people on whom Russian economy hangs on by a thread. Many of them are university students under 24-25, so again deferrals, and a concern for hurting the labour force.

That's why I gave 2m people as a maximum mobilisation reserve Russia can provide without catastrophic economic consequences.

Out of 2m people in uniform, 5% already been "spent," and they absolutely cannot reduce the police numbers, on the opposite, they are increasing the police staff as quickly as the military.

A combat force of 300k-400k is the maximum what we can expect with Russia unless they are really suicidal. Realistically, there will be under 300k troops who ever stepped into Ukraine I believe.

A massive force nevertheless.

Russia has million of unemployed men lying around drinking vodka with nothing better to do. Send them to Donbas to take land and snatch women.

 

[The SC]

@The SC
Do you agree with Russia that what Russia is doing is "liberation??????"

Well there are many appellations.. but I agree in the sense that its defending Russian speaking Ukrainians in Eastern Ukraine that have been massacred by the rest of Ukrainians since 2014.. that is a well documented fact.. Russia was patient and did not invent it..

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536835815480905729

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536836801293336584

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536837140675534849

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536837685763092488

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536838922189283328

 

[ckf]

Yes many US servicemen would still alive. Most wars are worthless. sometimes people realize late why a war starts at all.
About weapons unbalance between Ukraine and Russia, it says 1:15. However it’s not certain at all Putin will win. The US lost the Vietnam war, despite 1:150 in US favor.

Ukraine will win this war, I have no doubt. I am willing to bet my car on this.

You own a car? How are u going to prove that and who's going to bet you. Anyways stop the childish nonsense posts.

Here's a article from dailybeat.com, which Chelsea clinton runs, and practically Democrat's mouthpiece. It wasn't a coincidence when Biden publicly complained that Zelensky did not listen to US intelligence. Kissenger publicly endorsed ceasefire and now NATO chief publicly suggesting the need to pay the price for peace. Zelensky eventually will be like the poor Afghans cling on to the globemasters. War fatigue is setting in. When people of Ukraine find out that billions are stolen from public funds tinted with Ukrainian blood stashed in offshore accounts for Zelensky and his cronies, judgement day will come .

Judgment Day Is Coming for Zelensky

The most grueling decision of the war in Ukraine could spell the end of the president’s political career.

www.thedailybeast.com

 

[_Nabil_]

It's so obvious. The only way somebody agrees to close oil when it passes $120, is when he doesn't get any money from that. That Khaftrar is likely to be even less autonomous than was thought before.

Haftar never been autonomous, he's been bitching to Egypt, UAE, Russia, Qatar, USA,.....

 

[MultaniGuy]

Haha fvcking rednecks.

Let the Europeans go back to killing themselves again like in World War 1 and World War 2.

 

[jhungary]

Lets return to the ballpark estimates. Russia has 7 million military age men, with now middle aged men being added to that in desperation.

Russian military + police + national guard + kgb is already 2m.

2m have rich parents, and they will evade draft, leave Russia for overseas. These people are irrelevant to the real economy. Few people with university education good enough to score a white collar job will go work as truck drivers, factory workers, or dockers.

So, you are left with 3m people on whom Russian economy hangs on by a thread. Many of them are university students under 24-25, so again deferrals, and a concern for hurting the labour force.

That's why I gave 2m people as a maximum mobilisation reserve Russia can provide without catastrophic economic consequences.

Out of 2m people in uniform, 5% already been "spent," and they absolutely cannot reduce the police numbers, on the opposite, they are increasing the police staff as quickly as the military.

A combat force of 300k-400k is the maximum what we can expect with Russia unless they are really suicidal. Realistically, there will be under 300k troops who ever stepped into Ukraine I believe.

A massive force nevertheless.

I don't do it like this.

I look at their command and logistic element, because I know how much food and ammunition you need to support how many people and how many commander to command troop on a given sector.

Talking about how many people you can put in uniform does not really matter, because you will have to put them under effective control and have way to resupply them to make them an organised force, otherwise you may as well just release the prisoner from Russian Prison system and give them weapon and have them do another Nazino in Ukraine...

And from my assessment of the command and control element, couple with logistic, I can see Russia at max can support 120,000-150,000 combat troop, if we put tooth to tail on 50/50 (Highly doubt they can) you are talking about 240000-300,000 in Ukraine, but I would say it is not at all impossible to have over 400,000 Russian troop in Ukraine at the moment.