Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[Hassan Al-Somal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1532871000731312129

 

[F-22Raptor]

Ukraine now controls 80% of Severodonetsk

 

[TruthSeeker]

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JUNE 5​

Jun 5, 2022 - Press ISW

Download the PDF

Karolina Hird, Mason Clark, and George Barros
June 5, 5:15 pm ET​

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukrainian forces continued to conduct limited and localized but successful counterattacks against Russian positions throughout Ukraine on June 5, including retaking large areas of Severodonetsk—the city in Luhansk Oblast the Kremlin has concentrated the majority of its forces on capturing. A Russian Telegram channel claimed that Ukrainian troops launched a counterattack north of Kharkiv City, indicating that Ukrainian forces continue to pressure Russian defensive lines near the Russian border.[1] Ukrainian forces are likely seeking to leverage the continued Russian focus on Severodonetsk to conduct counterattacks on other axes of advance. Even as Russian forces continue to pour equipment and troops into the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, Ukrainian forces have conducted a successful counterattack in Severodonetsk in the last 48 hours and pushed Russian troops back to the eastern outskirts of the city and out of southern settlements.[2] Ukrainian counteroffensive pressure will likely continue to draw the attention of Russian forces to Luhansk Oblast and therefore leave vulnerabilities in Russian defensive efforts in Kharkiv Oblast and along the Southern Axis. The ability of Ukrainian forces to successfully counterattack in Severodonetsk, the Kremlin’s current priority area of operations, further indicates the declining combat power of Russian forces in Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces reportedly killed Russian Major General Roman Kutuzov on June 5. Russian Telegram channels reported that Kutuzov was killed near Mykolaivka, Luhansk Oblast (near Popasna) on June 5.[3] Kutuzov likely commanded the Donetsk People’s Republic’s 1st Army Corps at the time of his death, though ISW cannot confirm his exact position.[4] Some sources reported that Kutuzov commanded the 5th Combined Arms Army (CAA) at the time of his death, but we assess this is likely incorrect—Kutuzov served as acting commander of the 5th CAA from 2017 to 2019, and Major General Alexei Vladimirovich Podilov currently commands the 5th CAA.[5] High-level Russian commanders have taken remarkably high losses during combat in Ukraine, and will likely continue to do so as the Russian command continues to deploy military leadership directly to the frontline. Kutuzov’s death has not yet been confirmed but would be at least the seventh death of a general in Ukraine since the beginning of the war.[6]
Russian forces conducted their first missile strike against Kyiv in over a month on June 5. Advisor to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Vadym Denysenko stated that Russian forces fired five X-22 cruise missiles from a Tu-95 aircraft at Kyiv from the direction of the Caspian Sea that hit the Darnytsia Rail Car Repair Plant on the outskirts of Kyiv.[7] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that this strike targeted T-72 tanks supplied to Ukraine by other Eastern European countries, but images of the target area confirm that the missiles hit the Darnytsia plant.[8] It is unclear if Russian forces intended to strike foreign-provided Ukrainian tanks and missed, or if the Kremlin is attempting to obfuscate its intended target. This attack on Kyiv likely indicates that Russian forces are continuing to target Ukrainian infrastructure in non-critical areas of Ukraine in order to disrupt Ukrainian logistics as Russian forces take considerable losses in Donbas.
Russian military bloggers continued to reckon with overarching struggles in Russian force generation on June 5. Russian milblogger Alexander Khodakovsky accused “screamers in the guise of patriots” of hypocritically calling for general mobilization while at the same time discrediting the Russian military leadership and driving away those who would voluntarily take up arms for Russia.[9] Khodakovsky blamed the pervasive public discourse on general mobilization for making people overthink and subsequently become less willing to enter military service, thereby forcing Russian military command closer to actually needing to announce general mobilization. Khodakovsky suggested that this discourse is setting Russia up for a long war in Ukraine and that Russian authorities have been positioned to take the blame for losses. Russian war journalist Alexander Sladkov claimed that the Russian grouping in Ukraine is an ”exclusively professional army” not staffed by conscripts, while simultaneously calling for the removal of health requirements for rear and combat specialties in order to mobilize those who should be medically disqualified.[10] These and other comments by Russian military specialists indicate the Russian military community is increasingly aware of issues in sustaining mobilization efforts and different actors are seeking to apportion blame as Russian operations continue to stall.
Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian counterattacks in Severodonetsk recaptured large parts of the city and forced Russian troops out of the southern suburbs of the city.
• Russian forces continued efforts to converge on Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman but remain unlikely to make notable advances around Slovyansk due to their continued prioritization of Severodonetsk.
• Ukrainian troops reportedly conducted limited and localized counterattacks north of Kharkiv City.
• Russian forces continued to hold their defensive lines and fire at Ukrainian positions along the Southern Axis.
• Ukrainian forces likely killed Russian Major General Roman Kutuzov near Popasna.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
ISW has updated its assessment of the four primary efforts Russian forces are engaged in at this time. We have stopped coverage of Mariupol as a separate effort since the city’s fall. We had added a new section on activities in Russian-occupied areas:

• Main effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and three supporting efforts);
• Subordinate main effort- Encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
• Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv City;
• Supporting effort 2—Southern Axis;
• Activities in Russian-occupied Areas

Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued efforts to advance toward Slovyansk from Izyum and made limited, unsuccessful attacks on June 5. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground assaults on Bohorodychne and Dovhenke, 35 and 25 km southeast of Izyum, respectively.[11] Russian forces are additionally making incremental advances to the northwest of Lyman around Svyatohirsk, about 30 kilometers directly north of Slovyansk, and reportedly advanced to within 15 km of Slovyansk.[12] The Russian effort in this area is likely intended to link advances southeast of Izyum with Russian operations to the north and west of Lyman, with both axes converging on Slovyansk. However, Russian forces remain unlikely to make notable advances on this front as Russian troops continue to prioritize Severodonetsk at the expense of other lines of effort.

Ukrainian forces conducted further counterattacks in Severodonetsk on June 5, halting Russian advances and recapturing large areas of the city. Head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration Serhiy Haidai stated that Ukrainian forces have recaptured 70% of Severodonetsk from Russian forces in the last two days and that Russian forces now only control the eastern outskirts of the city.[13] A Russian Telegram channel additionally stated that a limited Ukrainian counterattack pushed Russian troops out of Syrotne and Lisna Dacha, villages on the southern outskirts of Severodonetsk.[14] Russian forces continued to carry out artillery, mortar, and MLRS strikes to support operations in Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Toshkivka, and Ustynivka.[15] Ukrainian counterattacks in Severodonetsk will likely force Russian commanders to commit additional degraded units and equipment to the area to halt successful Ukrainian efforts to roll back gains Russian forces took over a week to secure.[16]
Russian forces continued air, artillery, and ground attacks to the east of Bakhmut but did not make any confirmed advances on June 5.[17] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces transferred 20 units of unspecified weapons and military equipment to replenish losses in the Bakhmut area, indicating that Russian forces are sustaining casualties in their continued efforts to gain control of ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to the northeast of Bakhmut.[18] Russian forces continued ground assaults on the eastern arc of Bakhmut in Bilohorivka, Mykailivka, and Dolomitne.[19] The Russian grouping in the Donetsk City-Avdiivka area did not engage in any confirmed advances on June 5.[20]

Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Withdraw forces to the north and defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum)
Russian forces are reportedly fighting to hold their occupied positions north of Kharkiv City following limited Ukrainian counterattacks on June 5. A Russian Telegram channel claimed that Ukrainian forces launched a counterattack against Russian positions in northern Kharkiv Oblast and that Ukrainian forces are attempting to advance in Tsupivka, Turove, Velyki Prokhody, Ternova, Rubizhne (the Rubizhne in Kharkiv Oblast, not in Luhansk) and Staryi Saltiv.[21] ISW cannot independently confirm if Ukrainian forces recaptured these locations or are currently contesting them. However, Ukrainian forces likely seek to take advantage of the Russian focus on Severodonetsk to make prudent counterattacks in other sectors. Russian forces continued artillery strikes against Kharkiv City and its environs and fired on Tsyrkuny, Derhachi, Ruski and Cherkasy Tyshky, Staryi Saltiv, and Kozacha Lopan.[22]

Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces continued to hold their defensive lines and fire on Ukrainian positions along the Southern Axis on June 5.[23] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces mined the bank of the Inhulets River in anticipation of Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kherson Oblast, indicating that Russian troops are feeling the pressure of recent localized Ukrainian counterattacks along the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.[24] Russian troops continued unsuccessful ground assaults in northern Kherson around Vysokopillya and Kochubeivka and intensively fired on the line of contact in Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv Oblasts.[25]

Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing)
Russian occupation authorities continued efforts to strengthen bureaucratic, societal, and economic control of occupied areas but did not make any major changes on June 5. Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko claimed that the occupation administration in Mariupol continues to fail to provide basic social services for citizens and that the city is still facing widespread restrictions on water access.[26]

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533571305756413953

In case anyone wants to see a real Air Force

 

[Wood]

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533105755943227393

Russia has made few gains in the last month

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533340772371660800

 

[jhungary]

Russia is now at a strategic underhand position.

Once HIMARS or MLRS are in Ukraine inventory, I have no doubt in my mind that they are going to use them on the edge of Kharkiv and target Kupiansk, the all important railway junction that not only flow material and men from Belgorod but also Valuysky. If Kupiansk is disrupted, it disrupt the entire Northern Line of Communication. Ukrainian force are confirmed to be either at the West or East Bank of Pechenihy Reservoir, both side is within MLRS range on Kupiansk (West bank is 70km away East bank is 63km)

Doing so will limit supply and men flow from Russia from North, and any supporting effort would have to conduct from South (near Crimea)

Also, it make sense why Ukrainian risk the push now (Ukrianian gambled on the fact that Russia was unprepared for a counter attack) , because if they didn't push Sievierodonetsk now, and wait for Russian to occupy the city, you will need those HIMARS to dislodge them from the city, with them doing it now and holding the city for as long as possible, they can use those HIMARS to target supply hubs in Kupiansk. And if Sievierdonetsk eventually fall, they can move those HIMARS back to Kramatorsk or Sloviansk and use them on Sievierdonetsk.

That would be my prediction.

 

[jhungary]

@Oldman1 What did I say about British M270??

MSN

 

[Apollon]

For the sake of geopolitical BALANCE I hope Russia wins overwhelmingly! I do not know if this goes against the rules, but I watch videos of the war update that are posted almost daily or every other day on Southfront.org Tactical maps and everything!

What an idiotic thing to say. People like you would have applauded Hitler in 1939 as well. If Russia wins, civilisation ends. Europe would fall under Russias facist regime. Freedom and democracy would collapse. If you believe Europe would go silent into the night you are mistaken. We would use nuclear weapons as last resort.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533114725403328513

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533115279974313985

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533116406245511169

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533118847192117253

 

[Apollon]

@Oldman1 What did I say about British M270??

MSN

The UK...shows absolute Margret Thatcher vibes

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533443024038019072

Is Washington looking for an exit of the conflict and pressuring the Ukrainians? It seems the high oil prices, the food crisis in the world as a result of the sanctions, the petroleum trade that is happening outside of the US Dollar, the European leaders who are facing local pressures, and the upcoming mid-term elections seem to be forcing Biden administration's hands.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533671268108623872

 

[jhungary]

God you really have to love how Russian intentionally misquote people on Twitter, but then afterall, it's twitter

How the Ukraine war must end

Putin will never accept defeat

unherd.com

BY EDWARD LUTTWAK​

That leaves the disposition of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, substantial territories that Zelensky does not have the authority to give up, and without which Putin cannot leave the table where he has gambled and lost so much. While Putin cannot be given the two regions he demanded before starting the war, he can be provided with something that he can portray as a victory: plebiscites in both regions where properly certified residents, including returning refugees, would be allowed to vote on whether their oblast should remain Ukrainian or join Russia.

Upon acceptance of the plebiscites in principle, a cease-fire would come into immediate effect, with Russia’s respect of their terms guaranteed by the ease of reimposing sanctions just lifted.

 

[DF41]

Russia’s Lethal New Howitzer to be a Game Changer for its Ground Forces; How Capable is the 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV Mobile Artillery Piece

Making its first appearance during Russia’s 2015 military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the country's victory in the Great Patriotic War against Nazi Germany

militarywatchmagazine.com

Russia’s Lethal New Howitzer to be a Game Changer for its Ground Forces; How Capable is the 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV Mobile Artillery Piece​