I think the consequences of a nuclear war is a bit exaggerated. The US and Russia could probably destroy the major cities and military industrial complexes in each country, but its not the end of humanity and planet earth as such. It sure would be the end of life as we know it, but it will not lead to some nuclear winter leaving the earth uninhabitable.
Indeed, and at least in the Red countries, political elites are well informed about what the result will look like.
NATO is 1 billion people, and at least 10 strong states with very robust institute of statehood which will not collapse from a loss of a capital.
Russia+China can at most kill 5% of NATO population if they will agree on a simultaneous first strike, and focus solely on casualty count.
The Communist China, and Russia, despite being the most NBC prepared nations on the planet, will cease to function once the political leadership will go down.
While an unprovoked Western strike will certainly lead to some counterstrike, and at least an attempt to rebuilding the CoC, things will go muddier the moment the ruling party decides to strike during a time of crisis.
You understand that people who are chosen to hold the real nuclear button in a missile silo are the closest things to robots. The indoctrination to follow the instruction to the letter is real, but this also means that they will not do shit if there is any contest of authority.
If strike is unprovoked, sure thing — even if years of indoctrination will fail to work, that 1 star general, or a colonel in the silo will get shot by soldiers, or junior officers who will then press the button.
But if people in the bunker will sense any wavering from the political leadership, the outcome is far less clear. Junior officers will know the risk of being shot by their own knocking on the bunker's door if they will follow party zealots to the end. Remember the 2nd missile corps general who ran away to US during Sino-Vietnam war, losing his shit on the fear that Deng will use the nuke.
If they knew they could win against the West just by pressing the nuclear button, and overwaiting the inferno in a deep bunker, while they lose 10%-15% of the country, they would've done so immediately without any hesitation.
