Day 90 - Russo-Ukrainian War
This is the actual 3 months mark for this war (February only have 28 days, March and May have 31 days in its month. So let see what is different now then before, and what do I think is going to happen on both side. Also I will be talking about my trip to Ukraine (Made between April/May) and the outlook of the entire Ukrainian defence.
Situation in Ukraine
Most of Western Ukraine are secure, and south have also been stabilised, there southern front stopped around Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblast is now a see-saw battle. Kyiv and most Western Ukraine city have started to come back to business as usual mode, and rocket attack/Airstrike are few and far between, it's logically because without troop in the area to take advantage of the attack, any attack lob against Kyiv and any civilian area is just going to be waste of missile.
When I was in Ukraine, I have visited Kharkiv (While it was still active, but since have been counterattacked and cleared) and also Zaporizhzhia, Zaporizhzhia is like most city in the West, seldom attacked and damage was limited, Kharkiv, on the other hand, is a different issue, most of the civilian settlement were destroyed. And the city has been battered.
However, most fighting is now on Eastern and Southern side of Kharkiv now. And that was a no-go area except Ukrainian Military, civilian traffic is one way out of the area, as far as I understand, the area is evacuated.
My Job overthere is to train a cadre of Territorial Defence Force, which will be used to compensate the combat loss and the defence duty, freeing up regular troop and join the fight to the East. The TDF is now at 4th Rotation (I was teaching part of their 3rd) each "Tranche" have a specific objective, while I cannot tell you what Tranche 3 is for due to OPSEC reason, all I can say it is a reflection of the phase of War the Ukrainian is currently in.
Russian Advance
Reliable intel suggested Russian have deployed over 60BTG (about 60,000 men) in Donbas. The deployment are on 3 fronts, Lyman, Popansa and Rubizhne. The attack on Lyman would suggest either Izyum Axis have taken the backseat or has been abandoned altogether seeing they are on the same axis of advance. I would think Russian Troop in Izyum have had pulled back to defend the vital supplyline from Northern Kharkiv/Belgorod down Kupiansk. Hence a second line, a more modest line around Lyman was opened in the last few weeks.
Southern Advance has more or less stalled, with Russian troop dig in near Kherson, at this point, activities level would be low except some local offensive/counter-offensive to probe the line or disrupt the defence. I would not see both side gaining large ground in the coming weeks, for the Russian, they don't have enough troop to push. For the Ukrainian, they need to focus on the Eastern Offensive.
Donbas Offensive are seemingly focus on Luhansk region now, specifically to capture the city of Sieverodonetsk, Force south of Bakhmut did not cross into North, nor break out for Donetsk region, suggesting that Donetsk force are now seconded to Luhansk. This could mean either Russian do not have enough troop to take both at the same time and gave up on Donetsk, or they are trying to do it one at a time, but the latter is unlikely, as that grinding fight (First to Luchansk then Donetsk) would grind away the bulk of Russian force, even if they can take both region and taking the entire Donbas, the Russian would not have enough manpower and resource to hold it. As expected, situation didn't change much since Russia took Mariupol, which I will assume Russia also lost a great deal of manpower and equipment taking the city, thus making the South-North advance a moot point.
On the other hand, Ukrainian have 4 Brigade in the Area (roughly 20,000 men) facing the 60 BTG from Russia. The Ukrainian Brigade are positioned around Lysychansk and Sieverodonetsk, which is directly supporting the defence of Sieverodonetsk. Furthermore, Ukraine have another 5 or 6 Brigade (depends on whether or not they have raised a new one since I am gone) positioned between Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which formed bulk of Eastern Ukraine defence, with Popasna and Lyman fallen, Ukrainian in the region are running a risk of being cut off and surrounded on both side, the gap between Lyman and Popansa is around 50km, Russian advance are judged at making around 1 or 2 km a day, which mean it would be weeks before a Russian Cordon can be realistically materialize, if at all possible. The key is to take Bakhmut-Lysychansk Highway (T-1302) with this highway open, Ukrainian have the option to continue to move supply into Sieverodonetsk, or pull back and join the force in Kramatorsk or Sloviansk. This highway is still in Ukrainian hand as of May 29.
So what to expect next?
Kherson - Not much, Ukrainian will not make major push unless Eastern Offensive has been stabilised. Russian on the other hand, would not have enough manpower (estimate 20BTG in the area) to push, the Russian can't really reinforce the force in Kherson unless Donbas is conquered. And that could take a while, if at all possible.
Odessa - Low Intensity fight meant to keep Odessa on the back of its heel, but no real danger post to Odessa unless either Mykolaiv is fallen, or Russian Reinforce the Transnistria garrison.
Sieverodonetsk - Russia is piling EVERYTHING on Sieverodonetsk at this point, whether or not they can take the city is another issue, my best estimation is the Russian would be able to do it, but with a heavy cost. That really depends on how Ukraine want to use the 4 Brigade currently in the area. There are 3 possible way this can go
1.) Ukrainian leave the 4 Brigade in place, grinding it off with the 60 or so Russian BTG. That way Russia will win by sheer number, but it will blunt the attack, estimate the decimation of the 4 Brigade (similar to what happened to Mariupol) but it will also make up to 60% of those BTG combat ineffective.
2.) Ukrainian pull a rear guard delay action. Let the city fall, but bit out chunk of Russian attacker with limited fighting and pull a what we in the Military called "Trading Ground with Pace" This way the bulk of Ukrainian force can be withdraw, but it will take time of Russia and more or less dent their offensive here and there.
3.) A complete Pull out of Sieverodonetsk, leave the city for the Russia, preserve all their force.
Looking at the topography in the area. The sensible thing to do is to do a Rear Guard Delay action, Seversky Donets river is a BUND line, which mean it will favor the defender and with more troop coming in from the ground, it will slow the attacker and maximize the defence effort however, this also work the other way when the Ukrainian launch their own counter offensive, if they do.
Elsewhere in Ukraine - I don't see much Russian advance in anywhere but Sieverodonetsk at the moment. The line (again, other than Sieverodonetsk) is Stretched very thin at the moment, any thinner I would have to say it will open to insurgency attack in the occupied area. Bear in mind this war is still on its active phase. I am not too sure if there are anything Russia can do in this current situation if Ukrainian started insurgency behind enemy line. The Russian then have to balance between the frontline soldier and the number of Occupational Force. Again, short of mobilising another group of Russian Troop, I don't see how they can rebalance the number.
For the Russian, their goal is to take the entire Donbas, plus a land corridor between Russia and Transnistria, and we are still at the first part of Donbas campaign, meaning this would be months, if not years until Donbas operation is completed. That would seriously grind down Russian combat capability.
On the other hand, Ukrainian probably have low to no chance to recover majority of their loss in a short run, the only logical way for them to move forward is to limit their loss, and then try to raise an active insurgency to force the Russian to give up those gain. Which is seems to be what the Ukrainian trying to do, they are playing the long game, grinding down Russian will to fight by a combine conventional effort and insurgency effort. How successful of this combine campaign is remain to be seen. I will probably report back when I am doing the 190 days in report in 3 months.
