Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments
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RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 26
May 26, 2022 - Press ISW
Karolina Hird, Mason Clark, and George Barros
May 26, 6:30pm ET
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance southeast of Izyum near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border.
- Russian forces continued steady advances around Severodonetsk and likely seek to completely encircle the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area in the coming days.
- Russian forces continued to make persistent advances south and west of Popasna toward Bakhmut, but the Russian pace of advance will likely slow as they approach the town itself.
- Russian forces in occupied areas of the Southern Axis are reportedly preparing a “third line of defense” to consolidate long-term control over the region and in preparation to repel likely future Ukrainian counteroffensives.
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
ISW has updated its assessment of the four primary efforts Russian forces are engaged in at this time. We have stopped coverage of Mariupol as a separate effort since the city’s fall. We have added a new section on activities in Russian-occupied areas:
- Main effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and three supporting efforts);
- Subordinate main effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
- Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv City
- Supporting effort 2—Southern axis
- Activities in Russian-occupied areas
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued to attempt advances southeast of Izyum toward Slovyansk on May 26. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attempted to attack Bohorodychne, about 30 km southeast of Izyum.[4] Russian forces additionally conducted artillery, rocket, mortar, and tank attacks against Chepil, Dovehenke, Kurulka, and Studenok, all settlements to the southeast of Izyum in the direction of Slovyansk.[5] Such offensive actions indicate that Russian troops hope to continue their advance toward the borders of Donetsk Oblast and merge with operations around Lyman, which Russian forces fully captured on May 26.[6]
Russian forces continued efforts to encircle Severodonetsk on May 26. Russian forces reportedly attempted to take control of Ustynivka, about 15 km southeast of Severodonetsk.[7] Russian sources additionally reported that Russian troops are approaching Severodonetsk from Vojevodivka and Schedryshcheve (northeast of Severodonetsk) and that the northeast portion of the city is under Russian control.[8] A Russian military reporter claimed that as many as 10,000 people may be trapped in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk cauldron.[9] Ukrainian troops have reportedly fortified their positions in the Zolote-Orikhiv area, where Russian troops have encircled them.[10]
Russian forces continued persistent advances in Donetsk Oblast south and west of Popasna on May 26. Troops from the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) claimed to have taken full control of Svitlodarsk and Midna Ruda, settlements off the M03 highway and within 30 km southeast of Bakhmut.[11] Russian troops are reportedly fighting around Komyshuvakha, Nirkove, Berestove, Belohorivka, Pokrovske, Klynove, Lypove, and Nahirne and using these areas to advance toward Bakhmut.[12] Russian forces conducted unsuccessful operations around Donetsk City in the vicinity of Avdiivka and continued to shell north and northwest of Avdiivka.[13]
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Withdraw forces to the north and defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum)
Russian forces focused on maintaining their positions around Kharkiv City on May 26. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian troops north of Kharkiv City reconnoitered and fired on Ukrainian positions to prevent any further Ukrainian advances in this area.[14] Russian forces shelled the center of Kharkiv City and surrounding settlements.[15]
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces focused on improving their tactical positions and strengthening defensive lines on the southern axis on May 26.[16] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that Russian forces are creating a “third line of defense” in occupied Kherson Oblast, indicating they are preparing for protracted conflict in this area and digging in to repel likely anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensives.[17] This assessment is consistent with statements made by the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) that Russian forces are strengthening their defenses in occupied areas in order to hold those territories over the long term.[18]
Russian forces are reportedly attempting to advance to the Mykolaiv-Kherson administrative border and conducted unsuccessful assault operations around Tavriyske and Mykolaivka on May 26.[19] Russian forces heavily shelled areas of Zaporizhia Oblast and strengthened their grouping of forces around Vasylivka and Polohy to renew offensives in the directions of Kamyanske, Orikhiv, and Huliapole.[20] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the Russian grouping in Zaporizhia, specifically around Melitopol, has been reinforced by a battalion using outdated T-62 tanks, confirming earlier Ukrainian reports that Russian forces are cobbling together battalions with obsolete T-62 tanks to compensate for equipment losses.[21]
Activity in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing)
Russian occupation authorities continued actions to strengthen their administrative control of occupied areas on May 26. Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations deployed three broadcast trucks to Mariupol to transmit state-controlled programming to residents of the city.[22] Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko claimed that occupation elements are taking control of schools in Mariupol and have extended the school year through September in order to ensure children spend the summer learning according to strictly Russian curricula.[23] Russian-backed occupation authorities in Kherson stated that Russian mobile phone operators will be available in occupied areas and that pensions will be paid in rubles starting in June.[24] Residents of Kherson and Zaporizhia will additionally be able to obtain Russian passports at newly established passport points in accordance with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s May 25 decree simplifying the process to obtain Russian passports in these occupied areas.[25]
Immediate items to watch
- Russian forces are likely reinforcing their grouping north of Kharkiv City to prevent further advances of the Ukrainian counteroffensive toward the Russian border. Russan forces may commit elements of the 1st Tank Army to Northern Kharkiv in the near future.
- Russian forces are prioritizing cutting off two major highways to Severodonetsk but may start to storm the city before they successfully cut GLOCs.
- Occupation forces in Mariupol will continue to strengthen administrative control of the city but are likely unsure of what the ultimate annexation policy will be.
- Russian forces are likely preparing for Ukrainian counteroffensives and settling in for protracted operations in Southern Ukraine.
Civilians and these sensational journalists fail to realize that German has been pacifist for so long they have little to no spare equipment laying around to give away without putting themselves at risk.
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Hassan Al-Somal
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Hassan Al-Somal
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jamahir
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Yes yes, as the very humanitarian NATO declared through the UNSC, Gaddafi and Assad were "killing civilians including women and children".
However, this Libyan girl was brave and defiant against Obomba, Camoron, Sarkozy and co. in a huge public protest in mid 2011 in Tripoli during the NATO bombings. Watch her and understand that you have been fed lies and disinfo :
Ah, the UN Security Council or as Gaddafi called it in his 2009 UN General Assembly address, the UN Terrorist Council. The UNSC should have been long abolished because not only it is anti-democratic not having participation of the rest of the UNO member delegations it also is just a proxy for the three permanent Western members who have used to wage wars of Capitalist imperialism from Korea War to Libya and Syria to now against Russia.
China is a selfish country that doesn't care for international oppression so it doesn't count. But Russia was active in preventing NATO action against Libyan Jamahiriya including by presenting satellite imagery of the times over places in Libya where NATO was claiming that Libyan defense forces were "killing civilians including women and children". Russia proved it wasn't true. This NATO action was just another regime-change action against yet another progressive Socialist or Communist country especially if it was Muslim-majority. This is the same about Syria which though didn't had mass bombardment by NATO and deep entry by NATO special forces unlike in Libya, still had the NATO proxies Al Qaeda and "Muslim" Brotherhood enter Syria in 2011 in thousands and now 11 years ago there are tens of thousands of these NATO proxies slaughtering Syrians and trying to establish a mullah state on behalf of NATO.
But I say to you,
Allah, Muammar, Libya bas
Allah, Suriya, Bashar wa bas.
If this really is a Ukranian "Ghost of Kiev" bomber and not a photoshop it is certainly not bombing Russia.
This is a strange world. Muammar Gaddafi and Bashar al Assad are called villains by you instead of the heroes they are, the former being a philosopher and revolutionary, and now Russia is the Waffen-SS by fighting against the Nazis of Azov Battalion and its enabling larger Ukrainian military. What next, Zio-Nazi Zelensky the secretary general of the UNO ?
Well, that would be appropriate really because the UNO is of no use anyway and the UN Security Council aka NATO's New York office is the UN Terrorist Council.
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The main purpose of Uav is not anti-tank role. Either anti-air should be low or the uav should be more stealthy if it is used for that purpuse. If it is used that way ofcourse from close ranges Russia possibly has improved its shorad systems like Tor with stronger radars after continious losses and possibly gained more hit ratio. However TB-2 and similar uavs can still use elint pods to detect Russian ew or radar which are strong radio broadcasting equipment from far away or sar pods to take picture of the area to detect enemy positions like artillery-ew vehicles from sufficient distance without getting shot down. Then they can que mlrs and artillery to target those positions. If they are used accordingly they can still be effective.Nonsense. You are confusing few propaganda videos with the real impact.
How many TB-2 would be enough? 1000? One million? They were scoring their most hits at the beginning of the war, when russia had the wrong strategy to advance as fast as possible. So they neglected the defence, including air def. But now with the change in strategy the TB-2 can maybe score here and there some hits, but as soon as they enter the zone with serious air defence, they get shot down.
The math is simple: How many TB-2 were delivered to Ukraine? How many videos we have from the whole war? Each TB-2 can strike 4 targets per sortie, the war is nearly 100 days old. If the TB-2 were that effective, we would have today thousands of vids with succesfull strikes. But instead we have how many? 20? Maybe 50? Their real effectiveness in this war is on par with suicide drones, at best. Look only at the ridiculous snake island propaganda. They have done their strikes and after that they got downed. This is the best they can achieve against a competent air def. But in most cases they get shot down way before ...
Btw:
In Ukraine, the war of Dronov-Kamikadze began between the Russian and Ukrainian armies. Both sides published a video of their use. Personents of the use of American Switchblade drones 300 by the Ukrainian army appeared, in the video you can see the launch of one of these drones, it is worth noting that the batch of these drones is captured by the Russian army, but so far only photos have been published. At the same time, the Russian army also began to actively use Kamikadze drones, then in the video you can see the frames of attacks by the Russian drone of Kamikadze Kub-Bla on a group of Ukrainian soldiers. The use of kamikadze drones in Ukraine will seriously complicate the fighting of both sides, the only salvation from them is the active use of electronic warfare and air defense systems.
One of the soldiers of the Armed Forces recorded on the video star rain of missiles in Ukraine
One of the soldiers of the Armed Forces recorded on the video star rain of missiles in Ukraine
Viet
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Putin is not soft. He is a war criminal.
Just his ambition is greater than the Russian army can do. USSR under Statin is greater in size, greater in economics, greater in allies. Statin was a brutal. Putin will let millions be killed without a blink. They are all in the sane. Putin’s russian economy is just oil and gas. End of the days there will be only India, China because you buy fossil fuels you finance the wars of Russia.
jamahir
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So you think those genocial and war-criming NATO leaders strolling into Kiev and meeting our favorite thief and Nazi, Zelensky, have been able to do so because Russia is too incompetent to bomb out Kiev's electricity infrastructure using bombers or missiles ?
What makes you think that ?
Russia also sells weapons. But India currently is ruled by a fascist, right-wing, NATO-oriented party and Indian establishment was never a moral entity. It participated in the NATO invasion of North Korea that killed a million North Koreans and destroyed so many of its cities. That was in the 1950s and that trend continues now. The latest news was in a thread on PDF about USA government about to give money to Indian government for it to buy so much more weapons from the Western bloc that India won't need to buy weapons from Russia.
Right in the initial days of the Ukraine operation the State Bank of India ( a government entity ) stopped dealings with most Russian individuals and organizations, those whom NATO put sanctions against.
Then some days ago the big Indian IT services company Infosys ( which is totally a useless company anyway composed of code monkeys ) pulled out of Russia. One of Infosys' co-founders is NR Narayana Murthy and though not active in the company he is the one to come to mind of everyone in India when speaking of Infosys. Now his daughter is married to the British finance minister, Rishi Sunak. So it was the British government which through Sunak, his wife and his wife's father which got Infosys to pull out of Russia. But Russia won't lose anything becuase Russians are fantastic at computing and Infosys is just a bunch of code monkey idiots.
And then if you see Indian TV media it is full of anti-Russian sentiment so all this "Traditional phrend Russia" thing put out by some Indian officials is lies. Indian government is generally in the Western bloc, against Russia.
Himars could hit key positions but they would be low in numbers. Especially in eastern warzone they dont have air cover and after they are detected by counter battery radar systems air strikes can take them out if they are in low numbers and not used in shoot and scoot mode they would be very vulnurable there. Their current howitzer artillery is also getting targeted continiously. In kherson region Russia does not have air superiority and the air is defended better these can still be used there.
They need artillery in numbers and the cheapest artillery is home made rockets. Ukranians instead of demanding weapons from abroad can imrpove their home production capability of rockets that is making underground production centers for 15-20km range rockets with fertilizer based explosives , rpgs, grenades even quad drones to deploy those grenades. These are not high tech equipment and can be produced pretty easily.
Hassan Al-Somal
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Grain export blockade issue can be solved to a considerable degree if the Zatoka bridge in Odessa is repaired and used to transfer grain trucks into Romania in my opinion. It is bombed continiously by Russia because of weapons transfer issues but if there is a guarantee of no weapons shipments from that bridge grain trucks can pass into Romania and exported abroad by ships from Romanian ports. Both sides of the bridge can be video recorded with all vehicles being checked realtime and videos can be shared realtime from internet so no weapons transfer is proven. In that case no reason would be left for Russia to attack the bridge by cruise missiles or similar.
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