Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[Wergeland]

Russia uses rocket launchers with more accurate shells than the Grad, perhaps the Aragon:

Looks to me like some kind of guided rockets.

 

[_Nabil_]

Talking about brainwashing
You are from India?
You say so because you profit from cheap oil. Russian oil tankers have no customers in Europe. Instead of unloading in Europe they sell oil for cheap to Asia. Good for you. However bad for Putin. That’s a longer way but less revenues.


View attachment 845353

Bad news for you

 

[Paul2]

And we can make Russian areas with more than a 1ppl per km² areas radioactive just like the Chernobyl's Red Forrest for the next 25,000 years : big arsenals mean that you can do airbursts with very small fallouts, destruction is maximized but you can re-use areas after 2-3 weeks... A medium nuke power like us would be way more nasty :
1. We understate our real arsenal
2. It is optimized to maximize fallouts : a 100 kilotons one is designed to kill as much as a 1 megaton one, no through thermal effect, but through acute radiation syndrome

3. If we have to use it, we won't do airbursts: surface burst may do only half the damages but anything into the fireball is neutron-activated, and at n millions of °C (I've heard about as high as 400M °C), all the crap gets airborne in the shroom, and again, we're speaking about enhanced radiation effect nukes, not your Nukemap's "standard" thermonuclear, and from recoupment of stuff I could learn about in the old days I was "subterranean" in areas you wander in wearing a Hazmat type B and a dosimeter, although not said publicly because of the ecologists, these are very probably "salted" bombs...

You've got it, the worst case scenario may not forcefully being the cretin of the Kremlin with his firecrackers doing big booms at 10,000-20,000 ft altitude, it's small ones used in surface bursts... Or big ones too... In fact, the results would look like the infamous 1956 nuke war plans except that rule out all the areas that pulled out from Russo/Soviet sphere and move the strikes into what's left : the 1st implies less than 200 blasts

The 2nd about 500-550

So, you know, with already 320 MIRVs at sea 24/7/365 in peace time, which are doubled in case of tensions added with the ALCMs getting prepositionned
So, you know, when STATE-OWNED Rossiya-1 TV does Russian "humour" with such nuclear threats when their Waffen-SS orcs are murderind, raping Ukrainians at the same they're destroying and looting their homes and real-estate.
Moreover, Rossiya-1 are liars : the RS-28 "Satan-II" are set to replace the 46 R-36M2 "Satan" in the silos of the 13th Red Banner Rocket Division at Yasny, Orenburg Oblast and of the 62nd Rocket Division at Uzhur, Krasnoyarsk Krai, all with 10x 1Mt MIRVs, all the R-36M2 Mod.6 with a single 20Mt warhead were decommissioned in 2009 and the combustible likely burnt as fuel in NPPs

Well, did you noticed how Bobo is loudmouthed while Macron speaks softly? Meanwhile, the 4 Triomphant-class submarines are at sea, the EC91 Gascogne's Rafales are not on their "home" base and IMHO, into 3 months, there was more time than it is needed to put what's in cocoon storage or maintenance back to active service and replace SCALP or MdCN conventional warheads with something else, then, I can't tell if there are still tactical ones available but there were rumours that the Exocet ASM could receive a tactical-nuke as soon as the early 80's. I didn't verified if the CVN is at sea and if its transponder is on or off
And now the nasty part, the M51.3 has received the 3rd gen stealth ONERA's DEMR boss spoke about in 2009 since Hune 2020, Rafales are being upgraded to the F4 standard for 1 year+ now and the first to receive upgrades are always the EC91 and the Navy's squadrons since they carry the ASMPA-R, so forget about detecting these all even using the 29B6 Konteyner or the Voronezh radars, the fleet of Soviet spy sats are long gone and even if there were SAR radars, these would detect nothing, MdCN, SCALP and ASMPA-R are stealth although neither using 2nd gen like Rafale F3 or French navy vessels nor 3rd gen as M51.3 or Rafale F4, so their presence may be spotted under some conditions you will update the cruise missile's waypoints in order to avoid these.

Now don't ask me what's left in storage/set to be dismantled, I have no idea, but I'm not the only one to estimate that 350-500 would be realistic, this would imply a total arsenal of about 1000-1200 warheads available under a month [any way, even the peace-time "active" arsenal can already hurt very badly) and it's been more than a month since Vladolf Putler said he was Putin ruSSian strategic forces in alert, so make no mistake, France is in "DEFCON2" and if the Kremlin's Gremlin dares to attack an EU country, he perfectly knows about EU's constitution art 42.7, he perfectly knows about the French doctrine which implies that even a conventional war would meet a nuclear response, and he perfectly knows that it has been extended to the EU, and since that his friend Marine Le Pen hasn't been elected, there's no way to see France giving up this doctrine or pull out from NATO, or even pulling out from integrated command again [any way, French strategic forces are NOT part of NATO, moreover, her party is on the razor's edge and her too, they're in a judiciary turmoil, even the EU is suing them]...

So yup, even if not hammered in the MSM, Finland is absolutely under the French nuclear umbrella, so is Cyprus, in case of Ankara's Gollum forgot about it, as well as the Baltic States and you will notice that there is no silo in France, then, since all has switched to optic fiber, forget about breaking the command chain with EMP.
Then yeah, Putler can surely wipeout France and the UK with his firecrackers, but with what would be left of ruSSia, added with an agricultural zone rendered radioactive for thousands of years, well, how long those in the Moscow's or St.Pete's subways dug 100m below the surface will survive? Even he ruSSian army's rations are long pas shelves dates, 20% of its budget is embezzled, ruSSia is corrupted from the top to the bottom, so don't expect civilian defense going better, you can be sure that if there was stockpiles of canned food in subways' storage, these are gone for long, and I don't think there are hydroponics. Expect something like Enki Bilal's "Bunker Palace Hotel" for the elites which will end TARFU in it, and add a good 600-1000 rad/h on the surface...

Now, if you want to wipe out, it's not a few of Putler's firecrackers : with a 1 megaton airburst, you can expect
such damages:

NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein

NUKEMAP is a website for visualizing the effects of nuclear detonations.

nuclearsecrecy.com

(you may have to re-detonate as it will show up as a surface burst, thus minimizing the wipe-out features by about 50%)...
When Rossiya-1 one brags about a single Sarmat wiping out the UK, this is utter BS !!! If the wind helps, the 10x 1 megaton MIRVs may cover about 20,000-30,000 km² at 1 rad/h, but the usual winds are not so fallout-spread friendly.
This is not wiping out, it's making it radioactive with surface blasts If you truly want to wipe out the UK, you need to use cose to 500x 1 Megaton warheads, in other terms, the whole fleet of 46 R-36M2which NATO calls "Satan" or its upcoming successor, the RS-28 Sarmat which NATO calls "Satan-II", or you'd need about 500 Topol-M with a single warhead, thus there are only 60 silo-based Topol-M and 18 TELs...

There are only 36 road mobile older Topols which are being phased out

for the RS-24 Yars which is MIRVed: 136 road-mobile and 14 silo-based missiles are deployed

This implies you're no more in a city-buster strategy.
Frankly, when the Sarmat/Sineva factory did burn a few years ago, I believed Putin had grown a brain and did his McNamara, but ruSSian style...
Since the Sarmat is to finally replace the R-36M2, and according to the fact he's wiping out cities again while proffering nuclear threats, unfortunately, he obviously didn't broke up with the Soviet/Nazi barbarian issues of terrorizing populations...
The bulk of the arsenal is submarine based, with 5 Borei and a Typhoon totally 100 RSM-56 Bulava with 6 MIRVs each (600 warheads), and 7 Delta IV with a total of 112 R-29RMU Sineva and so 448 MIRVs
But considering that the Sinevas as well as the R-36 Tsyklon or the Sarmat are liquid-fuelled, don't bet on a 100% launch success, if some dude didn't managed to sell the fuel When you know that in St.Pete, the best Vodka is sold by the Ru-Air Force dudes and analysis have shown there is kerosene in, I'd definitively avoid vodka sold by the submariners or by the 13th and 62nd rocket divisions: you probably have hydrazine in
They're not even able to put ERA bricks on their tanks, the body armours are so long past shelf-dates that non-AP rounds pierce through, and visibly, if the Arena active protection system works, the 1600+ tanks and 3000+ IFV/APC destroyed by Ukraine didn't received it more than ERA, while, during latest Hezbollah attack into Israel, the two Kornet-E launched against an Israeli MRAP were intercepted by Trophy LV...

Oh, BTW, Turkey complains that S-400 is barely useless... So, you know, I use the word "firecrackers" deliberately about ruZZian nuclear arsenal... Oh, for sure, it may do some damages, but you can be near certain that the French arsenal, and maybe even the Israeli arsenal if Colin Powell and Jimmy Carter didn't lied, can hurt freaking bad, much badly than many are willing to think...

As we are, the fully loaded 100Mt Tsar Bomba in a surface burst would have spread fallouts over about 500,000km² with about 1.1km³ of ground vaporized and made radioactive with a mushroom cloud between 40 and 53km altitude... Imagine that, since the location is classified, and likely in some bunker, some wise ruSSian general targets this bunker with a Topol-M in a surface burst... 30t of mil-grade Pu239 at 20 kt/kg=> 600 megatons, add 1 NPP for less than 10,000km² with, for the most of them, 4x 3.8GWth reactors and it's impossible to estimate the quantity of antimatter in storage, the only thing is that with 10µg, it's said having enough energy to go to Mars and back, and 1g = 43 kilotons => 2150x more powerful than Pu239...

I'd be very careful if I was into using nuclear weapons against France which is the most denuclearized country on the planet: there might be some unwanted side effects like a nuclear winter, a nuclear disaster of apocalyptical proportions, who knows, maybe a gigantic hole in the Earth's crust of the level of the Oruanui VEI-8 eruption if not worse, some dude at the Large Hadron Collider may even decide to lift all securities and unleash a small blackhole which will grow and grow at the point after some time it will eat the solar system or more...

So, as you see, I definitively do not fear Putler's arsenal, he's a nuclear clown, ruSSia is a paper tiger

and I'm positive with a direct NATO intervention in Ukraine to kick his orcs out, period!
He can always use one of his firecrackers as a dildo, he'll surely enjoy it more than Hermann Goering enjoyed what his great dane dog had to offer...

Only silo based missiles are really first strike grade - only they can be fired within minutes. Everything else is 2nd strike, or follow up to 1st strike, to finish an enemy.

If they fire everything they can physically fire, Russia gets 1500 warheads. Realistically, even a preplanned attack will see 800 warheads launched at most, if they really want to committ to all in attack on both EU, and USA.

Given that Russia will reserve something for China, and the fact we observed that they pick missiles from Siberian bases, and move them to the West for drills across the whole country, rather than firing missiles already there, they will only have missiles in European part of Russia firing.

300-600 warheads instant launch, 200 more within 30 minutes. Nowhere near to even blunt NATO's conventional forces. There are more than 1000 military sites in France only.

 

[Nuclear Clown]

why would Russia need to "compensate" the loss of Europpean markets when European markets will never stop buying from Russia? This is a fake hypothetical you just slipped in here will never exist in reality.

The new generation of Siemens nuclear turbines has a 60% efficiency vs. 35% for the previous one. Putin knows it well, he used shell companies in order to buy 3 of these so he could supply electricity to Crimea, Donbass and Luhansk without having to build a new NPP...
Take the typical 3.817GWth EPR reactor, the production jumps from 1.362GWe (max) to 2.29GWe...
Thanks to Putler, all those antinuclear useful-idiots and other ecologists and pacifists who once were Soviet-funded have a brutal back-to-reality shock... These idiots managed to have the Superphénix fast-breeder closed which was absolutely dumb since it was burning nuclear wastes!!! Yup, nuclear is a renewable energy: fast breeders create more fuel than they burn too

Superphénix - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Time to mass build the new EPR-2 and many Superphénix too
Now guess why Putin backs far-right Marine Le Pen in France and backed Brexit? It's not just to have no nuclear powers in the EU: France is a jaw-dropping nuclear powerhouse, most of these NPPs have 4x 3.8GWth reactors:

But this is without counting the shale gas basins!

And there's still a lot to do with hydroelectric, geothermal, wind turbines, solar panels...
BTW, for the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 winters, I ended with high gas bills, despite I had already done some serious isolation works... I went much further during the last summer... As during fall, it was announced that gas would go up +57%, I told to myself "they can go to hell!", I decided to wear warm clothes in the house, and just used an electric heater when it became unbearable or warmed the kitchen with the gas at full power while cooking... As a result? Energy bills divided by 12!!! BTW, there were no issues with sub zero temperatures, the problem is when it rains : it makes the large balcony a true heat-pump, draining the house warmth to the outside... I'll have to improve this in the coming months.
So... Putler.
The EU is pulling out and we won't come back! And ruSSia is on an absolutely great path to be with the sanctions until it opts for civilization or breaks apart.
Actually, Putler's nuclear threats as well as threats on global food supply are just reinforcing the resolve and show we have a bully as a neighbour. It's not because we closed our eyes on some of his abuses that we are blind, and we're not into letting anyone bullying us, it's even why De Gaulle and Adenauer created the EU!!!

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527739179995648000

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527736290006994944

I believe that the last of the defenders have surrendered.

It is definitely over.

Yup.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527721528518901762

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527644452642332679

Some twitters claim that they learned from the video what kind of missile Russian militants fired at Lozova in the Kharkiv region.

They say it's X-22 aka Kh-22MP

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527718115265728516

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527661712219979781

 

[Paul2]

War is not sports game, it's all about big money!
Putin's goal in Ukraine seems to take over the control on global food supply and use it as a global blackmail tool, it's becoming really obvious : ruSSian forces have already stolen millions of tons of wheat!

Fully on the same page as you. It's very evident now, Putin is bombing out Ukrainian industry, and these are not military factories.

Really, there is no politics to this conflict, only profit, and I mean personal profit of these 200 men who run Russian Federation.

Few know, but Ukraine was basically closest economic peer competitor to Russia.

I wrote on it few months ago: he invaded Ukraine for oil, and gas in the black sea.

Explanation being simple, Russia being Russia, and wanting their land, as it did over centuries?

Russia been in the state of a mafia state for the last 20 years. If it isn't 20 years of mafia state influencing the national decision making, then what else really can?

To me it looks very obvious: Putin & Co. look at Ukraine and see a very weak state with

1. Huge wheat, and other grain exports
2. Military equipment exports
3. Machinery
4. Metallurgy
5. Gateway for drug shipment to Europe
6. 40 million people to tax
7. Rail access
8. Conscripts (slaves)

You can continue. Ukraine was basically an ideal victim.

He is not Genghis Khan, or Alexander. To me he reminds of a petty corporate takeover artist — types you see in abundance in the West, except they don't have armies, and nukes, and of course they flee the moment things stop going according to the plain.

I remember a cadre called Loudon Owen, who tried to seize Hanfeng Evergreen, and whom I had misfortune to cross in Canada.

He was a small time racketeer lawyer doing corporate shakedowns for activist investors.

And in one of his racketeering attacks, he bit more than he can chew.

Naive Chinese businessmen who were too lazy to Google his name, and read basics of Canadian corporate law appointed him as a silent chairman of Hanfeng Evergreen. Few years later it was found that he likely gave kickbacks to people who recommended, and voted him.

He dug up few minor accounting, and corporate governance inconsistencies, and went to Chinese owners threatening to "nuke them, and make them a second Enron" if they don't give him more stock. So, they gave him it. With few percents of the company, he had now a legal right, and more clout with other investors to go after the business.

He broke his promise, and disclosed these inconsistencies, and made a big drama about them. Then he positioned himself as a protector of small investors against "scary Chinese mafia," and took moneys of a number of naive investors to mount legal assault on the company... They never seen their investments, nor legal fund money again.

Chinese owners panicked, and fled to China, further legitimising Owen's claim that there is something fishy happening. At that time, it it was really nothing serious by Canadian legal standards.

The company was not able to pay its tiny debts simply because there been nobody to sign on their cheques, as the board was defunct. It was then when Chinese banks started investigating what was going on, and Owen happened to be in China at the moment, trying to arrest, and seize the fertilizes factory for himself. ICBC quickly figured out what was his trick, and turned the tables by successfully proving in court that the guy who is preventing the debt repayment is Owen himself.

I don't know what has happened next, but I read that guy returned to Canada, and been completely broke for few years, running from Hanfeng minority investors himself.

He didn't get a single dollar from a company, but out of spite, he went and f**ked up all other investors. He sued the shell of the company in Canada, of which he himself was a chairman, and naturally he got a default judgement, making the shell defunct, eliminating any chance for other minority investors to recover their money. It was a complete "If I can't have it, you can't either" move.

Just now I googled him, and it appears he spins himself as a "Crypto Venture Capitalist," trying to scam somebody again.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

Incorrect, and ironically the ICRC itself, whose website you referenced, confirms this:

https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/resources/documents/interview/weapons-interview-170109.htm

In the words of Peter Herby, head of the ICRC's Arms Unit in a 2009 interview:

View attachment 845699

White phosphorous can be an incendiary weapon indeed as explicitly stated by the ICRC, and when it is, it will be regulated by legal provisions governing the use of such weapons. Meaning that lobbing white phosphorous over areas with a concentration of civilians = war crime, unless there is a very clear and ostensible physical separation between said civilians and the military assets targeted by the white phosphorous.

End of story.

No, the article describes limitations on incendiary weapons.

Smoke Shells generate smoke, and then this part is applicable.

not the treaty on incendiary weapons.

 

[Wergeland]

This war shows that Europe has been sleepwalking under US protection.

It is clear that without the US, Europe neither has political cohesion or millitary coordination to stand against a Russian game in its own backyard.

Europe should have created a combined Armed Forces long time ago. While its economic and market power is Tier 1 together with USA and China, its hard power (millitary) and political side is very shaky. Without strong armed forces under single political rule, Europe will never achieve its goal of being a equal to the likes of US and China.

Sad but unfortunately also true

 

[RescueRanger]

2 months 3 weeks and 6 days later - Russia’s “special operation” has proved one thing - Russia is kaput!

 

[Nuclear Clown]

Only silo based missiles are really first strike grade - only they can be fired within minutes. Everything else is 2nd strike, or follow up to 1st strike, to finish an enemy.

If they fire everything they can physically fire, Russia gets 1500 warheads. Realistically, even a preplanned attack will see 800 warheads launched at most, if they really want to committ to all in attack on both EU, and USA.

Given that Russia will reserve something for China, and the fact we observed that they pick missiles from Siberian bases, and move them to the West for drills across the whole country, rather than firing missiles already there, they will only have missiles in European part of Russia firing.

300-600 warheads instant launch, 200 more within 30 minutes. Nowhere near to even blunt NATO's conventional forces. There are more than 1000 military sites in France only.

We can launch from submarines into 2 minutes...
And remember, the M51.3 SLBMs absorb any form of radar waves since June 2020...
Silo missiles may react fast but only with solid fuel missiles... If you keep liquid fuel permanently into a R-36M2, Sarmat or Sineva, you're insane... How long to fill the tanks of a 200 tons missile?
Yeah, Putler can nuke, but ruSSian ABMs are nowhere near SM-3, Aster-NT bloc.2, THAAD, GMD, etc...
Moreover, it won't make any difference if 1st or 2nd strike or if it took 10-12 minutes to some ASMPA-R to fly from the Baltic states to Moscow when, in the ruins of the city, there will be about 500-600 rad/h...
I just can tell you that there is no way to achieve a lock on the M51.3 before the MIRVs are released, M51 comes from Ariane-IV which has 113 successful launches on 116 and how long between a MIRV release and the blast? 20s? Even if their ABM aren't of the same crap unable to shoot down a 185km/h IAI Harop, you need to know the missile trajectory a while before the MIRVs are released to intend an interception with launches preferably before these are released, then if the Arrow-3 may discriminate between the real stuff and hundreds of inflatable decoys, then, IDK if the M51.3 has received some Rafale's SPECTRA subsystem that allows to project about 200 false-positive radar echoes...

No matter what Putler does, I can guarantee you that if he plays with his firecrackers and sleeps in his bunker, he'll end just like his rolemodel:

 

[The SC]

Urgent Russian Defense Minister Shoigu: American planes are flying over our borders more than before, and we are studying the possibility of targeting them with cruise missiles.
@soldier2017kg

Russian Defense Minister Shoigu: 12 military bases will be established on the western borders of Russia, against the backdrop of efforts to join Finland and Sweden in NATO
@soldier2017kg


Director of the Russian Space Agency: One missile of the "Sarmat" type can completely destroy countries.
@thingsfromtunis


We've come to the end of the adventure game with Biden's kid at the Azovstal factory.
The treasure is in the hands of our forces and we have the right to dispose of it.
Glory to Great Russia and President Putin
@RamzanKiadyrov

What happened at the Azovstal factory is only the first surprise, and there are many more surprises in the coming days.. We are playing with the United States and the West our way, not as they want.
@RamzanKiadyrov


We are ready to volunteer in defense of Russia
100 000 fighters from Iraq are readying to volunteer for Russia..
@YxLmV5


Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council: The West imposes crazy penalties on us and then asks us to provide them with food, because they are without brains and thinking
@soldier2017kg


China is negotiating with Russia a deal that may be historic in the oil world
@Cassan_Kozlov

 

[Constantin84]

2 months 3 weeks and 6 days later - Russia’s “special operation” has proved one thing - Russia is kaput!

View attachment 845927

No!
The initial goal was to capture Azovstal and destroy the Azov battalion! 3 months,28000 dead Russians,1000 destroyed tanks,one flagship sunked later....it is done! Russia is a superpower and the world knows it!
And if you don't know it, they will use their one of a kind laser to saw continents in half...

 

[oberschlesier]

This war shows that Europe has been sleepwalking under US protection.

It is clear that without the US, Europe neither has political cohesion or millitary coordination to stand against a Russian game in its own backyard.

Western Europe yes. Central Eastern Europe - not really. Europe has the Power, it simply needs to understands, it has it and the Russia is not really strong. It`s more psychology, Europe is super strong comparing to Russia.