You probably right on all the things you mentioned on the above post. But calling Russian nukes as fire cracker??? A few of them could wipe whole western Europe, and Russia doesn't posses a few but bunch.
And we can make Russian areas with more than a 1ppl per km² areas radioactive just like the Chernobyl's Red Forrest for the next 25,000 years : big arsenals mean that you can do airbursts with very small fallouts, destruction is maximized but you can re-use areas after 2-3 weeks... A medium nuke power like us would be way more nasty :
1. We understate our real arsenal
2. It is optimized to maximize fallouts : a 100 kilotons one is designed to kill as much as a 1 megaton one, no through thermal effect, but through acute radiation syndrome
3. If we have to use it, we won't do airbursts: surface burst may do only half the damages but anything into the fireball is neutron-activated, and at n millions of °C (I've heard about as high as 400M °C), all the crap gets airborne in the shroom, and again, we're speaking about enhanced radiation effect nukes, not your Nukemap's "standard" thermonuclear, and from recoupment of stuff I could learn about in the old days I was "subterranean" in areas you wander in wearing a Hazmat type B and a dosimeter, although not said publicly because of the ecologists, these are very probably "salted" bombs...
You've got it, the worst case scenario may not forcefully being the cretin of the Kremlin with his firecrackers doing big booms at 10,000-20,000 ft altitude, it's small ones used in surface bursts... Or big ones too... In fact, the results would look like the infamous 1956 nuke war plans except that rule out all the areas that pulled out from Russo/Soviet sphere and move the strikes into what's left : the 1st implies less than 200 blasts
The 2nd about 500-550
So, you know, with already 320 MIRVs at sea 24/7/365 in peace time, which are doubled in case of tensions added with the ALCMs getting prepositionned
So, you know, when STATE-OWNED Rossiya-1 TV does Russian "humour" with such nuclear threats when their Waffen-SS orcs are murderind, raping Ukrainians at the same they're destroying and looting their homes and real-estate.
Moreover, Rossiya-1 are liars : the RS-28 "Satan-II" are set to replace the 46 R-36M2 "Satan" in the silos of the 13th Red Banner Rocket Division at Yasny, Orenburg Oblast and of the 62nd Rocket Division at Uzhur, Krasnoyarsk Krai, all with 10x 1Mt MIRVs, all the R-36M2 Mod.6 with a single 20Mt warhead were decommissioned in 2009 and the combustible likely burnt as fuel in NPPs
Well, did you noticed how Bobo is loudmouthed while Macron speaks softly? Meanwhile, the 4 Triomphant-class submarines are at sea, the EC91 Gascogne's Rafales are not on their "home" base and IMHO, into 3 months, there was more time than it is needed to put what's in cocoon storage or maintenance back to active service and replace SCALP or MdCN conventional warheads with something else, then, I can't tell if there are still tactical ones available but there were rumours that the Exocet ASM could receive a tactical-nuke as soon as the early 80's. I didn't verified if the CVN is at sea and if its transponder is on or off
And now the nasty part, the M51.3 has received the 3rd gen stealth ONERA's DEMR boss spoke about in 2009 since Hune 2020, Rafales are being upgraded to the F4 standard for 1 year+ now and the first to receive upgrades are always the EC91 and the Navy's squadrons since they carry the ASMPA-R, so forget about detecting these all even using the 29B6 Konteyner or the Voronezh radars, the fleet of Soviet spy sats are long gone and even if there were SAR radars, these would detect nothing, MdCN, SCALP and ASMPA-R are stealth although neither using 2nd gen like Rafale F3 or French navy vessels nor 3rd gen as M51.3 or Rafale F4, so their presence may be spotted under some conditions you will update the cruise missile's waypoints in order to avoid these.
Now don't ask me what's left in storage/set to be dismantled, I have no idea, but I'm not the only one to estimate that 350-500 would be realistic, this would imply a total arsenal of about 1000-1200 warheads available under a month [any way, even the peace-time "active" arsenal can already hurt very badly) and it's been more than a month since Vladolf Putler said he was Putin ruSSian strategic forces in alert, so make no mistake, France is in "DEFCON2" and if the Kremlin's Gremlin dares to attack an EU country, he perfectly knows about EU's constitution art 42.7, he perfectly knows about the French doctrine which implies that even a conventional war would meet a nuclear response, and he perfectly knows that it has been extended to the EU, and since that his friend Marine Le Pen hasn't been elected, there's no way to see France giving up this doctrine or pull out from NATO, or even pulling out from integrated command again [any way, French strategic forces are NOT part of NATO, moreover, her party is on the razor's edge and her too, they're in a judiciary turmoil, even the EU is suing them]...
So yup, even if not hammered in the MSM, Finland is absolutely under the French nuclear umbrella, so is Cyprus, in case of Ankara's Gollum forgot about it, as well as the Baltic States and you will notice that there is no silo in France, then, since all has switched to optic fiber, forget about breaking the command chain with EMP.
Then yeah, Putler can surely wipeout France and the UK with his firecrackers, but with what would be left of ruSSia, added with an agricultural zone rendered radioactive for thousands of years, well, how long those in the Moscow's or St.Pete's subways dug 100m below the surface will survive? Even he ruSSian army's rations are long pas shelves dates, 20% of its budget is embezzled, ruSSia is corrupted from the top to the bottom, so don't expect civilian defense going better, you can be sure that if there was stockpiles of canned food in subways' storage, these are gone for long, and I don't think there are hydroponics. Expect something like Enki Bilal's
"Bunker Palace Hotel" for the elites which will end TARFU in it, and add a good 600-1000 rad/h on the surface...
Now, if you want to wipe out, it's not a few of Putler's firecrackers : with a 1 megaton airburst, you can expect
such damages:
NUKEMAP is a website for visualizing the effects of nuclear detonations.
nuclearsecrecy.com
(you may have to re-detonate as it will show up as a surface burst, thus minimizing the wipe-out features by about 50%)...
When Rossiya-1 one brags about a single Sarmat wiping out the UK, this is utter BS !!! If the wind helps, the 10x 1 megaton MIRVs may cover about 20,000-30,000 km² at 1 rad/h, but the usual winds are not so fallout-spread friendly.
This is not wiping out, it's making it radioactive with surface blasts
If you truly want to wipe out the UK, you need to use cose to 500x 1 Megaton warheads, in other terms, the whole fleet of 46 R-36M2which NATO calls "Satan" or its upcoming successor, the RS-28 Sarmat which NATO calls "Satan-II", or you'd need about 500 Topol-M with a single warhead, thus there are only 60 silo-based Topol-M and 18 TELs...
There are only 36 road mobile older Topols which are being phased out
for the RS-24 Yars which is MIRVed: 136 road-mobile and 14 silo-based missiles are deployed
This implies you're no more in a city-buster strategy.
Frankly, when the Sarmat/Sineva factory did burn a few years ago, I believed Putin had grown a brain and did his McNamara, but ruSSian style...
Since the Sarmat is to finally replace the R-36M2, and according to the fact he's wiping out cities again while proffering nuclear threats, unfortunately, he obviously didn't broke up with the Soviet/Nazi barbarian issues of terrorizing populations...
The bulk of the arsenal is submarine based, with 5 Borei and a Typhoon totally 100
RSM-56 Bulava with 6 MIRVs each (600 warheads), and 7 Delta IV with a total of 112 R-29RMU Sineva and so 448 MIRVs
But considering that the Sinevas as well as the R-36 Tsyklon or the Sarmat are liquid-fuelled, don't bet on a 100% launch success, if some dude didn't managed to sell the fuel
When you know that in St.Pete, the best Vodka is sold by the Ru-Air Force dudes and analysis have shown there is kerosene in, I'd definitively avoid vodka sold by the submariners or by the 13th and 62nd rocket divisions: you probably have hydrazine in
They're not even able to put ERA bricks on their tanks, the body armours are so long past shelf-dates that non-AP rounds pierce through, and visibly, if the Arena active protection system works, the 1600+ tanks and 3000+ IFV/APC destroyed by Ukraine didn't received it more than ERA, while, during latest Hezbollah attack into Israel, the two Kornet-E launched against an Israeli MRAP were intercepted by Trophy LV...
Oh, BTW, Turkey complains that S-400 is barely useless... So, you know, I use the word "firecrackers" deliberately about ruZZian nuclear arsenal... Oh, for sure, it may do some damages, but you can be near certain that the French arsenal, and maybe even the Israeli arsenal if Colin Powell and Jimmy Carter didn't lied, can hurt freaking bad, much badly than many are willing to think...
As we are, the fully loaded 100Mt Tsar Bomba in a surface burst would have spread fallouts over about 500,000km² with about 1.1km³ of ground vaporized and made radioactive with a mushroom cloud between 40 and 53km altitude... Imagine that, since the location is classified, and likely in some bunker, some wise ruSSian general targets this bunker with a Topol-M in a surface burst... 30t of mil-grade Pu239 at 20 kt/kg=> 600 megatons, add 1 NPP for less than 10,000km² with, for the most of them, 4x 3.8GWth reactors and it's impossible to estimate the quantity of antimatter in storage, the only thing is that with 10µg, it's said having enough energy to go to Mars and back, and 1g = 43 kilotons => 2150x more powerful than Pu239...
I'd be very careful if I was into using nuclear weapons against France which is the most denuclearized country on the planet: there might be some unwanted side effects like a nuclear winter, a nuclear disaster of apocalyptical proportions, who knows, maybe a gigantic hole in the Earth's crust of the level of the Oruanui VEI-8 eruption if not worse, some dude at the Large Hadron Collider may even decide to lift all securities and unleash a small blackhole which will grow and grow at the point after some time it will eat the solar system or more...
So, as you see, I definitively do not fear Putler's arsenal, he's a nuclear clown, ruSSia is a paper tiger
and I'm positive with a direct NATO intervention in Ukraine to kick his orcs out, period!
He can always use one of his firecrackers as a dildo, he'll surely enjoy it more than Hermann Goering enjoyed what his great dane dog had to offer...
