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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

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It has often been said that the West wants Russia divided into several states, like Libya or the fractured Iraq. Especially an independent Siberia. This will make the plundering of Russian resources much easier.

The world need to have a hard look at itself ... any country involved in a war commits atrocities ... where was the outrage for My-Lai, for Iraq, for Syria or Yemen ? We have to look at all wars with the same critical eye, this is disgusting and vile. Giant nations like Russia, USA and China are always meddling in the background. ENOUGH
 
The world need to have a hard look at itself ... any country involved in a war commits atrocities ... where was the outrage for My-Lai, for Iraq, for Syria or Yemen ? We have to look at all wars with the same critical eye, this is disgusting and vile. Giant nations like Russia, USA and China are always meddling in the background. ENOUGH

Bhai the narrative is always controlled by the few and they make the rules.
 
My comments about the VKS are here...



If my suspicion is true that the VKS essentially used the old Soviet concept of airpower and employment of the same in Ukraine, then the VKS cannot achieve air superiority over a country as large as Ukraine, and that it is only the smaller size of the Ukrainian Air Force that the VKS have that de facto control of Ukrainian airspace.


Boyd and Warden represent a major transition in the evolution of air power theory. Early air power theorists argued that one could defeat the enemy by paralyzing his war-making and war-sustaining capabilities—a form of economic warfare based upon industrial targeting. In contrast, Boyd and Warden contend that one should target enemy command and control—that is, control warfare based upon command targeting.​
Boyd and Warden represent a shift from this economic warfare to what some term control warfare. Boyd’s version of control warfare is more process-oriented in terms of operating inside enemy OODA loops. On the other hand, Warden’s version is more form-oriented in terms of parallel, inside-out attack against the enemy’s Five Rings. That said, both espouse control warfare based upon command targeting.

We can see the progression of early airpower up to where John Boyd and John Warden advocated. Back in WW II, the US Army Air Corps bombed Germany's war-making and war-sustaining capabilities such as the Ploesti oil refineries and the Schweinfurt ball bearing factories. In Desert Storm, we attacked Iraq's command and control and associated information gathering capabilities such as early warning radars. Radars are intelligence.

Under the Soviet concept and employment of airpower as 'airborne artillery', ground commanders dictate the direction and intensity of LOCAL airpower, and by 'local', it mean targeting enemy forces 24-48 hrs ahead. Oil refineries and ball bearing factories are weeks ahead, meaning it takes weeks to turn oil into fuel and ball bearings to install into vehicles. But if you target enemy forces that are 24-28 hrs ahead, you will be shooting at enemy ground forces that are either on the way to you or entrenched waiting for you. In this, airpower is limited to local combat, not regional or national economic and/or command and control capabilities. We never met during the Cold War and now in Ukraine we finally found out that seemingly the current VKS have not made any philosophical and conceptual progress since WW II. If you look at Figure 3 on page 25 of the above doc, the VKS pretty stopped at ring 3 'infrastructure' but concentrated at rings 4 (population) and 5 (fielded forces). The employment of the VKS in Ukraine correlates too much to the old Soviet 'airborne artillery' concept of airpower.

There is a parallel cause on why the VKS performed so poorly over Ukraine: economics. Poutine may have given the Russian military some budgetary boost from improved economy overall, but it was not enough. In Desert Storm, we hit all of the Warden Five Rings in one day. We did it because we could. The US had enough air assets to do it alone but we ended up with allies to help. The VKS did not because it could not. So the VKS had no choice but subordinate itself to ground commanders. In the end, since the VKS could not perform like Desert Storm, might as well do the most good by working for the Russian Army. Many will not like this but US/NATO air forces would have erased the VKS from the air.

For the long term, it now falls to China, specifically Chinese concept of airpower, to lead the non-West aligned air forces. Would the PLAAF adopt the Boyd-Warden ways of airpower? Maybe, but that would require a re-conceptualization of the entire PLA itself to be an expeditionary military like how the US military is. How expeditionary? Again, back to Desert Storm. Historically, expeditionary armies lived off the land. They took food and make their arms from local sources. But with DS, the US shipped everything we need from one hemisphere to the other. This is how much the PLA must change. Could is one thing, but 'can do' is another. Can the PLA become as expeditionary? China shares borders with 11 countries and not all of them friendlies. That mean a good portion of the PLA must be constantly on the alert on the home front whereas the US do not worry about Canada and Mexico.

Very interesting
Thanks for taking time to write this long and informative post.

No doubt the Russian Airforce is not as competitive vis a vis NATO as it was during Soviet days when Research and Design Bureaus were given plenty of funding. In fact there is not a single aircraft in VKS that has been designed completely after the fall of CCCP. Su-27 series are all based on projects that began in the 80’s.

Russia has designed new aircrafts like Su-57 and the Checkmate recently but never been mass produced.

A big big reason is of course funding. Russia was on the brink of collapse when Putin took over. It is only the last 10 years its economy has been somewhat stable, mostly driven by good oil and gas prices.

I am not gonna try to pretend i am a aviation expert, because i am not. But to me it seems VKS and the Armed forces in general, lack the integration that US Army has had. Where every machine talks to eachother and therefore have superior situational awareness. Russia seems to lack the strong electronics, digital and AI element that characterize US.

OTOH if what you suggest, is correct, Its mysterious why Russian Army leadership has not tried to learn from USA. Laziness? Lack of money or simply the tech is not there?
 
The world need to have a hard look at itself ... any country involved in a war commits atrocities ... where was the outrage for My-Lai, for Iraq, for Syria or Yemen ? We have to look at all wars with the same critical eye, this is disgusting and vile. Giant nations like Russia, USA and China are always meddling in the background. ENOUGH
It always amazes me that the guardians of global virtue seem to have a blind spot to their own , infinitely greater crimes.
 

"Kyiv reclaims more towns" - empty town the Russians have withdrawn from.

Russia has probably lost. Putin has lost. Everything they do now is futile to what he was trying to achieve. Either he accepts that and withdraws or he is removed from within. That is when it ends. Hopefully sooner rather than later for the good of everyone.

That is a wishful thinking...Russians are securing the Russian-speaking Eastern Ukraine.
 
Many good points but…
Is there anything that suggest Russia really tried to take full control of Ukraine airspace? I mean like going all inn and taking out every Ukrainian air wing and SAM systems.

There is something really fishy about Russian intentions and actions in this war. To me it looks like Russia simply is afraid to go in with full force. I think the main goal maybe actually to teach Ukraine (and others) a lesson. Demilitarize and make it less anti-Russian.

edit: Although Russia has not enforced a de jure NO Fly Zone still Ukraine airspace is more or less de facto in Russian control. Also Russia might have drawn its conclusions from full blown US invasions in Afg and Iraq, that a full scale take over is very risky.

Russian forces attempted to achieve Air Superiority over Ukraine.


"Kyiv reclaims more towns" - empty town the Russians have withdrawn from.

Russia has probably lost. Putin has lost. Everything they do now is futile to what he was trying to achieve. Either he accepts that and withdraws or he is removed from within. That is when it ends. Hopefully sooner rather than later for the good of everyone.

Ukranian forces defeated Russian forces in the North:

"Zelensky's trip to these areas is highly symbolic for a number of reasons, not least of which is that Russian forces have been driven back so thoroughly that it is considered safe enough for him to travel there personally. Russian units have been withdrawing from locations around Kyiv, as well as elsewhere in northeastern Ukraine, for more than a week now in the face of Ukrainian counterattacks, continuing logistics problems, and other issues. Zelensky's visits reinforce the 'lead from the front' image he has cultivated since Russia's invasion kicked off in February, which has helped boost morale domestically and galvanize support internationally."


Focus is shifting to the East now.

My assessment:

Post in thread 'Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments' https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/russia-ukraine-war-news-and-developments.706984/post-13677319
 



That is a wishful thinking...Russians are securing the Russian-speaking Eastern Ukraine.

Looks like Russia went out to destroy no matter what, rather than 'liberate a country' as they put it. Russian Ukrainian speakers ? you think they wanted this total carnage of there Ukrainian state!

russia have played a bad game here they are doomed its just a matter of time, his conscript army has done more harm to Russia that nato ever could do.
 
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