Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[Foinikas]

i have seen first hand what russians do.... HAVE YOU?

Where?

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1511061258233122824

This is just NATO looking to impose a no-fly-zone over Ukraine and also in your comrade, @Apollon's fantasy, extend the no-fly-zone 250 kms inside Russia's border with Ukraine but if that does not come about then try to do regime change in Russia using fake feminists like Pussy Riot and CIA agents among the emigres like Garry Kasparov who can be in the White-House-arranged "Russian government in exile" like the White House fronts 2011-era-and-onwards Libyan Transitional Council and Syrian National Council and of course the "Tibetan government in exile" :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510689485549359109

Good riddance !

https://twitter.com/x/status/1511061258233122824

 

[Oldman1]

@Oldman1

West sends Ukraine long-range artillery to counter-attack Putin

THE WEST will send Ukraine long-range artillery to counter-attack Russian forces "digging in" to pound cities, Ben Wallace revealed. The Defence Secretary yesterday revealed more lethal aid will be given to Kyiv to fight the Kremlin's killers. Russia's plans to storm into Kyiv have "fallen...

www.express.co.uk

Looks like UK is either sending M270 MLRS or AS90 to Ukraine. It could also be BAe System HiMAR - even tho UK did not use them.

I was expecting something more Russian design. I mean Russians are known for making artillery and missiles and rockets as their primary usage in their wars. Can't be HIMARS since the U.S. has it and the only other country in Europe I checked in is Romania. Don't know if they are giving those up. In any case, hope they send them in soon as well as provide more serious SAMs systems to help provide air cover. I just read on the twitter that the Russians have transferred dozens of helos as well as dozens of ground attack aircraft the SU-25s from Bulgaria for the offensive soon. Probably more from Russia itself. Putin is putting all his chips on this to get a victory of some kind and get it by May 9 with territorial concessions from Ukraine which is to me IMO unacceptable. It will hurt Ukraine's security and economically in the future when Russia invades again where Ukraine is more exposed. Also need to remind them that they need those Switchblade 600 in massive quantities as well. Need to jumpstart that production quicker.

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1511063915907665938

Spoiler: Graphic

https://twitter.com/unrepentanteast/status/1511045611302359042

https://twitter.com/x/status/1511023945386020873

https://twitter.com/x/status/1511014978341548038

Spoiler: Graphic

https://twitter.com/unrepentanteast/status/1511015234231746561

 

[Oldman1]

In my view, TB-2 is enough. Why would they provide more drone if the Ukrainian is just as happy to use the TB2 and take on the Russian?

ON the other hand, Loitering munition is going to be a game changer to Ukraine, it's not what they can do that scare the Russian (Well, that too), it's simply the fact that Russian know Ukrainian having them and don't know if one is circling above your head is the part that scare you.

Hopefully they keep sending in more of them, we don't know how long this war will actually be, probably not even end by May 9. So need to open more production facilities. The longer the war is, the more suffering for everybody around the world. Even a Great Depression.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1511061258233122824

https://twitter.com/x/status/1511061258233122824

LOL, they resort to the movement of the arm of one of the dead as fake for a raindrop on the windshield. Same for another body that was moving even though it was the mirror movement. Can't fake them anyways considering the foreign journalists and photographers were there and took pictures of those same dead bodies.

 

[thetutle]

My Pakistani friend showed this to me:

View attachment 830576

Let me fix that for her. She forgot to add. "neighbours that fight back".

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1511003556408709122

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510970625136943118

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510944329765896208

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510904250624323587

 

[Oldman1]

Day 40

Well, I never thought I would still be writing this in Day 40. But here we are, at Day 40 (About to go to Day 41) of the War in Ukraine. Fighting continue.

Here are the situation as of Day 40

View attachment 830541

So, what's happening?

Russia is Culminated

We hear this a thousand time, but what does that mean?

In war, a force is culminated means they are at the high tide mark and can no longer progress forward, usually at the end of their logistic capability. Further gain is unlikely at this point unless a serious reshape and re-contribution to the combat operation at hand.

Russia at this point reached the high tide mark for the entire operation, The Northern arm has been beaten back, and Ukrainian is counter attacking North East Ukraine. Russia pull off all the force in North and try to reinsert it somewhere either in the East (Near Kharkiv) or South East (Near Donbas)

Localised Battle

Kyiv - Russian Retrograde

Russian announced a draw back on the North, on the other hand, we have not seen any retrograde operation launched by Russia to preserve its North Force, what we can see is a general withdraw with their force abandoning defensive position around Kyiv and its suburb.

According to Chapter 7 FM 100-15 A retrograde operation defined as the following.

1.) A delay operation to withdraw frontline troop in parts to preserve the frontline, so you don't pull everyone at once and collapse the frontline.
2.) A volunteer withdrawal of rear troop, with defensive position destroyed or sabotaged so to denied the enemy for using the defensive structure you have built.
3.) Redeploy and/or retired the troop that are not engage in combat.

We didn't see any of that.......

Conventional Wisdom suggest for every unit you pull off the front line, you leave 2 unit behind to act as a "Fighting Withdrawal" that way you will always have some troop holding the line and not going to vacate the frontline all at once, this is obviously did not do, because Ukraine took back almost the entire Kyiv Oblast in 2 days, and leave behind carnage suggested that the Russian withdraw is unorganised and sudden.

On the other hand, defensive position around the line were not destroyed. Noted in Hostomel Airport, this Satellite Image suggested the defensive position remain intact

View attachment 830563

From this, we can deduce Russian Operation in Kyiv is not a Retrograde, but a general rout.

Odesa

Odesa is on the far side of the Western Coast, it being the biggest and only port left with Ukraine, this is a big target for the Russian, so what's happening to it?

Apart from a missile strike and an artillery strike, nothing.

Even tho snake island felt on day 1, Odesa was largely untouched. Russian ship is on stand by, however, they cannot launch an amphibious assault until the Russian took Mykolaiv, you need a supply route over land in order to sustain an amphibious operation.

I would have to say Odesa is safe for now, pending on whether or not Ukrainian can take Kherson during the counter offensive.

Kherson

I have no doubt in my mind Kherson is the next Counter Offensive Point for Ukrainian. Taking Kherson would pressure Russian troop back to Crimea as you can made a clear dash toward Crimea thru Kherson, and taking Kherson would have weaken the Russian ability to conduct Military Operation in the South and South East.

During the last few days we have seen limited activities in Kherson area after Ukrainian counter attacked toward Kherson Airfield, this is in my opinion probing work, Ukraine is waiting on heavy equipment (Tanks and Artillery) for a major push, once those equipment is in Ukrainian hand, we would expect to see a General Push toward Kherson and Melitopol Direction.

Mariupol

Anybody who studied warfare would probably tell you Mariupol would have fall in the first few days of the war. The Proximity (10km toward Donbas frontline) would mean this is more or less a sure things to the Russia. Taking Mariupol would free up a bunch of troop from the South and East so they can have the freedom to move North and encircle the Ukrainian Defender in Donbas.

40 days in, Mariupol is still hanging on by a thread. At this stage, I would have to say even if Mariupol felt, the Russian force, with 40 days of hard fighting would have been spent or near spent, which mean the original objective may be already in doubt. On the other hand, if the Ukrainian manage to break thru from Kherson, that will render the advance toward Mariupol pointless, because the Russia would have to pull troop back to defend Crimea. And even if Mariupol did fall, I seriously doubt Russia have enough troop to defend the city from a upcoming counter attack.

Kharkiv

Kharkiv is probably one of the wild card at the early onset of the war, due to it proximity toward Russian border and it's large ethnic Russian resident, we don't know if Kharkiv would have just fold or people in Kharkiv is going to cooperate with the Russian.

Kharkiv turns out to be one of the fiercest place of the entire war. Kharkiv have been back and forth, and latest intelligence suggested that Russia is no longer trying to take Kharkiv, and were unable to encircle it. Russian strategy with Kharkiv is by-passing it and going south toward Izyum and trying to encircle the Donbas defender.

Kharkiv is currently also one of the major point of Ukrainian counter offensive, with supply corridor being pushed back across the border.

Overall Situation

As of April 4. the situation is probably a stauts quo between the Russian force and Ukrainian Force. Russia have been withdrew from the Northern ends, Kyiv is relief as of now.

Depending on how Russian rearm and regroup, they may try to invade thru Belarus and into Ukraine again, however, unlike the first time they have the element of surprise, this time, Ukrainian is fully or nearly fully mobilised with time to make defensive position, any further advance is going to be tougher than it was before, which make another push toward Kyiv unlikely.

On the other hand, Russian is expected to rotate the force and redeploy them toward the south, a logical destination is in Donbas instead of Kharkiv, on the other hand, these force is freshly pull off the field from Kyiv and reinsert them into Donbas for a grinder warfare, I seriously doubt the combat effectiveness of these force without giving them enough time to R&R.

While the Russian is doing that, Ukrainian have been able to raise another 200,000 TDF troop, and is currently opening another round of mobilisation, basically awaiting armament and equipment to fully kit out the first batch of TDF troop. As this war drag on, the more investment coming from EU and US, Ukrainian Force is going to grow in number which mean they can pursuit more objective than they can now. On the other hand, can the Russian keep up with the number game and the equipment game is unknown. Bear in mind, US and EU is underwriting the war in Ukraine for Ukraine. Russia is paying for its own war, with heavy economic sanction, the capability of whether or not they can persecute such a war during these economic circumstance is doubtful at best.

In the next week or 2, as more equipment and formation of new Brigade, Ukrainian is expect to conduct a country-wide counter offensive. I would say the next counter offensive focus is going to be in the Southern Region.

Russian/Ukrainian end game?

I don't think this war would be decided on the field, I still think this war is going to be decided with the peace talk, the position on the ground will dictate the progress peace talk. I don't think Russia can take anything more than Donbas, I do think the southern corridor is in jeapody from Ukrainian counter attack.

So I would suggest the next Ukrainian counter attack would see who have the bigger carrot in the peace talk. If Russian failed to resist the counter attack, then donbas would not have a favourable outcome. On the other hand, if Ukrainian are not able to dislodge the Russian, then outlook of the Ukrainian defence in Donbas will be grim. They will then be more willing to deal, other than keep fighting.

@Wood @RescueRanger @SQ8 @Paul2 @mmr @LeGenD

Definitely need to start taking Kherson soon before the big event with those tanks and other armor vehicles being delivered by the west, also need to be helping and reinforcing Kharkiv as well as hitting or flanking Russian forces trying to encircle next to Kharkiv at the same time because the Russians want to deal with that city, either encircle it completely or try to take it, because they don't want that city behind their backs while trying to encircle tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops in Donbas region. Odessa should be fine with anti ship missiles and no supply line provided by the Russians and got pushed back at the city of Mykolaiv. Still need to take Melitopol as well.

 

[Wood]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1511023549129101324

 

[Wergeland]

Absolutely Poutine is not stupid. Intelligent people make miscalculations, errors in judgement, or just stupid mistakes all the time. All of us have one time or another and for the rest of our lives. So this is not about IQ but more about making decisions based on info/intel, and in this case, seemingly really really bad intel. The Russia-China alliance have always been there with the expectation that Russia will make all the major decisions. But nothing is more impressionable than a war and unexpectedly, this Russia-Ukraine war upset that expectation. Now everyone, especially in the UN Security Council, will see this as the new China-Russia alliance with China making all the major decisions.

Am USAF and my main interest was the Russian Air Force (VKS) in this war. At the 3 weeks mark, I was at the 50/50 threshold of calling the VKS a failure. Now, it is pointless. Field Marshall Bernard Montgomery said "If we lose the war in the air we lose the war and we lose it quickly." The corollary is that if you do not have control of the air, it will take you longer to win the war, if you can win it at all. The VKS IS a failure. I am willing to go out on a limb and posit that from now on, non-Western aligned militaries will look to China even more for war doctrines as well as importing their defense hardware, and as an Air Force guy, I see the PLAAF as preeminent in that bloc.

Many good points but…
Is there anything that suggest Russia really tried to take full control of Ukraine airspace? I mean like going all inn and taking out every Ukrainian air wing and SAM systems.

There is something really fishy about Russian intentions and actions in this war. To me it looks like Russia simply is afraid to go in with full force. I think the main goal maybe actually to teach Ukraine (and others) a lesson. Demilitarize and make it less anti-Russian.

edit: Although Russia has not enforced a de jure NO Fly Zone still Ukraine airspace is more or less de facto in Russian control. Also Russia might have drawn its conclusions from full blown US invasions in Afg and Iraq, that a full scale take over is very risky.

 

[The SC]

Russian delegate to the United Nations: Britain's rejection of Russia's invitation to hold a Security Council meeting on Ukraine's Bucha is an unprecedented decision in the history of the United Nations..

@sputnik_ar

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510942535396605952

https://twitter.com/x/status/1511074260088930310

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1511028060140810248

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510919740612612097

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509137655421968385

https://twitter.com/x/status/1511054165128142851

 

[Tornado23]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510982990385623046

 

[thetutle]

@LeGenD @gambit @dbc @jhungary

Any reason USA and NATO have not provided any lethal drones to Ukraine?
All I see is anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons

Is this due to fears of American weapons falling into Russian hands similar to how Taliban obtained USA weapons used by former Afghan army?

You obviously dont consider Turkey a NATO member.

 

[Cthulhu]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1511044781253832704

The Russian Nazis have never changed

This is a clip from a 2014 French movie called "The Search", Not sure why this clip keeps popping up.