Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503819817861664773

 

[Beny Karachun]

The post war order is coming to an end. Yesterday's sureties doesn't look so solid any more.
Pray that Russians don't get pissed enough with your shenanigans in Ukraine that they give a green light to the Iranians.

Lol with their performance in Ukraine we might as well conquer Moscow lmfao

 

[CrazyZ]

Is it better than Turkish one ? I learnt only Americans and Israelis has better drones than Turkish.

Turkish drones are much better then American or Israeli ones from a value perspective. One Predator is 25X more expensive then TB2. TB2 is battle proven up against far better AD then anything Israeli or American drones have faced.

 

[oberschlesier]

Putin expects the West to blink in the face of his threats - 6th letter from the Wind of Change inside the FSB​

My translation of the 6th #FSBletters in the series from #WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin. Written March 13th. Highly time-sensitive information of what to expect from Putin in the coming days. The text is over 1500 words.
As always, my comments for clarification are in parenthesis. So, let's roll:

“It appears World War III has begun; our guys are opening champagne - the war between Iran and the United States disrupts the nuclear deal and blocks the ability to replace Russian oil with Iranian oil. The inevitable shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz will cause oil to skyrocket in price. I have no idea why Iran chose to shoot itself in the foot. I’m could even believe in the existence of some kind of generally incomprehensible agreements (between Russia & Iran), but I don’t have a single fact that supports this.

Today I just want to convey information about the impending "exit" for Russia through our eyes (FSB as an organization, not #WindofChange individually) and the "courtiers" at the Kremlin. (Reference to a royal court under a King)

This is not a “copy,” (of the actual brief) but an extremely accurate retelling, so you can do with this as you wish, including full publication without any redactions.

Currently there is only an outline, and a final report will be much more voluminous, detailed, and more concrete as the work has only just begun. Afterward I will try to provide my own input (on this new plan) as I am currently pre-occupied with the situation of the Iranian-American conflict. The “Gordian Knot” will definitely be seriously revised/adapted (because of Iran launching a missile at the US base in Iraq).

Operation “Gordian Knot”

1st Stage: Most likely, Konashenkov (Major General, chief spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Defence) will officially declare at a briefing that Europe and the “collective West” have declared war on Russia by intervening in the Ukrainian conflict with their weapons and mercenaries, while simultaneously attacking Russia in the economic plane (sanctions). There will be an extended lecture that war is not contained to military operations on the battlefield, but it includes an array of aggressive actions aimed at causing direct damage to the opponent. That the West’s action de-facto unleashed a world war. That this war has not yet moved into the “hot stage” with missiles and tanks only because Putin, as the supreme commander in chief, did not give such an order. Nevertheless, Konashenkov will declare that the third world war has begun.

2nd Stage: Assessment of the reaction (by the West) – 1-2 days.

3rd Stage: Putin will make a speech. In this long lecture he will declare that the modern world is not as it was before, that war now includes cyber attacks, preparation of biological attacks, direct attacks, training of terrorist & saboteurs, and imposing of sanctions devastating to the economy. He [allegedly] does not want war, but the West has already started it (against Russia). As a result, (Russian) response need not be symmetrical and can respond to any act of aggression with any means available in a military confrontation. “I warned with Ukraine – but nobody listened” (Putin’s message). Russia has shown that its words (threats) are not empty. Putin will declare that he is ready to come to terms (forgive) with what the West has already done, but only if sanctions are lifted within 24 hours, all assistance to Ukraine is stopped, and that NATO will guarantee not to expand. (Still Putin’s upcoming speech) Otherwise, Russia will have no choice but to accept the war and respond with all available means.

4th Stage: A fierce negotiation process (between Russia and the West) – in the initial hours Putin will be conspicuously unavailable for communication (with the West). Other countries’ presidents will be obliged to discuss issues with Putin’s aides – “or not at all.”

Putin's demonstrative private phone calls will begin with the leaders of countries that Russia is betting on: Serbia, Hungary, China, the Arab world, African countries and Asian countries.

Assessing the situation of the West’s readiness to respond to the challenge, agents of political influence will be activated. They will call to “immediately fulfill Russia’s just demands, and not drag the world into a new war” - here the task is to quickly propagate the message that “the war was unleashed by the West, but Russia cannot not to answer.”

Stage 5: Based on the assessment of the situation over the following 24 hours, the following options are possible:

1) West blinks and is prepared to make local concessions. In this instance the following position will be voiced: “we have been heard, there are positive signals and we consider this a factor that allows us to delay making a final decision." (Whether to start military operations against the West) Putin will set aside several days for the negotiation process, after which he will “make a decision.” In this scenario the West is given time to go through stages from denial to acceptance – practically all that will remain is to extract maximal concessions (from the West), which will turn out to be the most significant. The maximal objective is to sign a new international treaty of a global nature (total appeasement of Russia)

• 2) The West does not comply, but openly does not want war. In this instance “military targets” will be demonstrably identified: Poland and the Baltic countries. Moreover, identification of “limited targets” in these countries is possible, with a public appeal to civilians not to be near these objects. Immediately after this, a super-intensive format of negotiations will start, with a key goal of forcing the West to reject all support for Ukraine and a possible “compelling of Ukraine to peace” by the West. Strategic aviation and nuclear triad will be activated, and a No Fly Zone may be declared over these countries (by Russia). Chances of success (for desired concessions from the West) are considered to be highly realistic (if it gets to this point). Otherwise, localized missile strikes (against Poland and Baltics) will be almost inevitable.
• 3. 3) The West does not comply and demonstrates readiness for war in response. This scenario is considered to be extremely unlikely. In this instance cyber attacks will be launched on key infrastructure facilities of Western countries. Russia will not take direct responsibility, while actively "moving" its forces of the (nuclear) triad. With this development of events, the risks of the West using military methods to respond are assessed as negligible, which gives Russia room to maneuver to conduct an indirect war to create unacceptable conditions for the West with the risk of total economic collapse. After this, negotiations are considered inevitable and will result in the scenario #2 above. And –
• 4. 4) In the case of an absence of clear coordinated signals (from the West), which is assessed as unlikely but acceptable, the (Russian) behavior will be similar to scenario #2 above (as well).
• 5. 5) A fundamental collapse of the West within the time allotted (by Putin) after the ultimatum was issued. Rejection of “collective security”: Withdrawal of several countries from NATO (and possibly European Union), each with separate appeals to Russia that they are not conducting aggressive actions against Russia and they are not part of the possible war. Then everything will default back to scenario #1 above, but Russia’s strength in position (for negotiations) will be comparable to that of the USSR. In the future, this will allow Russia to take political control of a number of countries that were part of the USSR. NATO as an integral structure will cease to exist.
• 6) A fundamental collapse of the West, but with a clear separation of a number of countries [Poland and the Baltics] from the moderate position of other countries. (Here, #WindofChange means a scenario in which NATO tries to appease Russia but Poland and the Baltics refuse to stand down to Russia) In this case the “pro-Russian wing” of the Western countries will accuse these countries (Poland/Baltics) of fomenting conflict along with a demand “not to drag our governments into someone else’s conflict.” Russia's objective in this scenario is to apply maximum pressure on Western countries with a moderate position, demanding that they “keep the aggressors (Poland/Baltics) from reckless actions." In this situation, within a period of 3 to 7 days, Western countries with a moderate position will be ready to accept local strikes against countries with radically irreconcilable countries (Poland/Baltics), after which missile strikes [on military targets] will be launched on them (Poland/Baltics). Direct infantry invasion is considered acceptable but unlikely.

For all the above (six) scenarios, these assumptions are assessed as extremely probable:

- Arab countries, Iran, China, some African countries, and [presumably] India and Brazil will take neutrality with a general condemnation of "mutual aggression";

- Some European countries are guaranteed not to support military confrontation: Italy, Hungary, Serbia, possibly France;

- Powerful movements will be activated inside Western countries aimed to both support Russia and recognize it as a “defending side.” A number of anti-war movements not necessarily in support of Russia but which will create an impossible environment for their governments to make a pro-war decision;

- Global nuclear war will not happen;

- The Ukraine question will be resolved with finality – by the West.

Igor Sushko - #FSBletters from the Wind of Change inside the FSB (KGB) - Racing & Beyond

Learn about the origins & context of the #FSBletters from the #WindofChange to Vladimir Osechkin, a Russian human-rights activist exiled in France.

www.igorsushko.com

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The Guy is dangerous and probably way way more dangerous then previously assumed

Yeah, I want see it how this done. It again works on the miscalculation, that the West is "weak and decadent". Anyway, in reality the Ukraininas are fighing the Russian, not the "West"

 

[Beny Karachun]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503819817861664773

"Guys, Ukraine shooting down Su-34s and Ka52s and blowing up hundreds of tanks is totally part of the plan! It's all Putin's 4D chess plan, even the logistical catastrophe, trust me guys!"

 

[thetutle]

Im not a big fan of showing face of fallen soldiers. No matter whats going on but imagine his family sees this.

Yes its wrong. But the family can tell others of their tragedy and dissuade others form partaking in this criminal act. Many Russians believe this is a cost free exercise. Things like this will try to convince them that this is not the case.

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503832492956078082

 

[Wood]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503859259435622403

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

The US by way of nature pretty much have no choice but to create an expeditionary military. By 'nature' I mean the two oceans, then not likely Canada and Mexico will be hostiles. Of course, the US can simply exists with state national guards, but if the US is to protect our allies, then the standing army will have to be designed to be expeditionary.


No and no. The implication here is Taiwan, which is the equivalent of Ukraine to Russia, but the critical difference is water vs land. The PLA will have much greater vulnerabilities in strait crossing than the Russian Army running on land to Ukraine, and the PLA knows it. The difference is great enough that the PLA pretty much dismissed using the Russian Army as example of an invasion for Taiwan, instead, the PLA is looking at the occupation parts, particularly the current difficulties the Russians are facing.

Using D-Day for example, the invasion of Taiwan is estimated to be greater than D-Day in terms of resources.

To be truly expeditionary, the PLA would have to successfully (1) invade Taiwan, (2) occupy, and (3) pacify if necessary, of the Taiwanese. Just merely building ships capable of transporting troops will not be enough to create the perception that the PLA is expeditionary capable. The extreme example is Desert Storm. Historically, expeditionary armies lived off the land. The US did not. We shipped everything we needed transhemispherically. No one else done that since. Does the PLA need to replicate that extreme? Not really. But if the PLA cannot militarily defeat Taiwan with those three conditions, the perception that the PLA is expeditionary to US level will not be there.

There is no denying that Taiwan is critical for China in general and to the PLA in particular and I believe that Xi motivated Poutine, compounded by the poor advice from their generals, to invade Ukraine. Xi needed to know what China WILL encounter and to what degrees, and sacrificed Ukraine for that.

Unlike Ukraine, the navy is in play for Taiwan, and the PLAN dominates the ROCN in every category.

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503845924883382274

 

[Beny Karachun]

Turkish drones are much better then American or Israeli ones from a value perspective. One Predator is 25X more expensive then TB2. TB2 is battle proven up against far better AD then anything Israeli or American drones have faced.

No they aren't lol. Predator drones are of different class and different missions and are capable of carrying way more than TB2.
Israeli drone like Hermes 450 is in the same class as TB-2 and can do whatever the TB-2 does. Israel doesn't showcase munitions fired from its drones for its reasons.


Israeli HAROP suicide SEAD drone destroyed S-300 , TOR2M

Unlike Ukraine, the navy is in play for Taiwan, and the PLAN dominates the ROCN in every category.

Navy doesn't win wars

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503833630652706831

 

[gambit]

If he had accepted this in the before this conflict started......he could have avoided so much death and destruction.

How far do YOU want to take that argument? How about Israel admonish the Palestinians the same way, that: If you had accepted this...

What you said is dangerous beyond this situation. It means on every continent, the current great power would make 'might is right' the dominant foreign affairs policy. If you do not like my offer, here are my weapons array. All you have to do is accept my offer of submission to avoid so much death and destruction.

 

[thetutle]

This one is brutal. Direct hit on russian tank.

at 0:22 there is a nan running out of a tank.

 

[Wood]

The Russians are said to have used close to a 1000 missiles of different kinds in this war in Ukraine. Is this some sort of world record? I don't know if Americans used more in Iraq