Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577758214317346819

 

[ziaulislam]

For Ukraine, gaining territory was relatively easy after they exhausted RUAF offensive potential.

I would argue, their overall strategic priority after March until Kharkiv offensive was to deny RU easy attack, and manoeuvre opportunities, rather than counterattack above all.

Now russians have spread themselves wide, because they themselves wanted to go on the defensive.... and here UA turned the table by throwing 10 brigades at a time enfilading thin defensive lines.

Answering your question now, the battle now will go for the next 10% of the territory, and after that, I bet, Kremlin will lose interest fighting for puny 5%, since Kremlin can't brag with a square face about wasting the entirety of world's №2 military for puny 30000 square kilometres of land.

The entirety of Khesanh province will almost certainly be going back to UA until the end of this month. AFU will also almost certainly be able to push past Krasna river, and reach Bila before the winter. That will be around another ~5%.

If UA will be able to herd RUAF into around 12% of remaining occupied territory, their advantage in long range fires will start to snowball.

Just 100-200 thousand untrained troops without tanks, and artillery would have zero chances to change the situation. It will be a slaughterhouse, especially if they will try to push conscripts into open fields in the south.

The best Russia can do is to stuff urban parts of Donetsk, and Luhansk with those new conscripts, and bid for time. Any other attempt at "Zerg Rush" is already doomed since AFU have already cleared the only remaining major area in the country where vehicles are at disadvantage. After UA will retake Starobilsk, RU will have close to none opportunities to employ infantry in the field.

Dumbest analysis I have seen.

Russia has two options

Accept defeat and give up Russia territory like at collapse USSR.
Or.

Escalate with carpet bombing and tactical nukes.

 

[The SC]

For Ukraine, gaining territory was relatively easy after they exhausted RUAF offensive potential.

I would argue, their overall strategic priority after March until Kharkiv offensive was to deny RU easy attack, and manoeuvre opportunities, rather than counterattack above all.

Now russians have spread themselves wide, because they themselves wanted to go on the defensive.... and here UA turned the table by throwing 10 brigades at a time enfilading thin defensive lines.

Answering your question now, the battle now will go for the next 10% of the territory, and after that, I bet, Kremlin will lose interest fighting for puny 5%, since Kremlin can't brag with a square face about wasting the entirety of world's №2 military for puny 30000 square kilometres of land.

The entirety of Khesanh province will almost certainly be going back to UA until the end of this month. AFU will also almost certainly be able to push past Krasna river, and reach Bila before the winter. That will be around another ~5%.

If UA will be able to herd RUAF into around 12% of remaining occupied territory, their advantage in long range fires will start to snowball.

Just 100-200 thousand untrained troops without tanks, and artillery would have zero chances to change the situation. It will be a slaughterhouse, especially if they will try to push conscripts into open fields in the south.

Wrong assumptions..

There are 200 thousand Russian troops already fighting + 300 thousand volunteers being prepared to join them in about a week.. + the Wagner trying to recruit another 50 thousand..

But that is not all..the tricky part comes from these four regions officially joining the Russian federation; That means they are part of Russia now..and as we all know or some don't know..the Russian armed forces conscripts are not allowed to fight outside Russia.. but now they will fight on the new Russian territories..So at least 200 thousand of them from the 2 million Russian armed forces will join in to protect the rear of the fighting troops as well as guard important roads, ports, airports and other important facilities of the infrastructures ..That is already 750 thousand Russian troops that will be present on the war front..It is very dangerous for the Ukrainians..

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577724104765050887

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577723829237026831

 

[ziaulislam]

Wrong assumptions..

There are 200 thousand Russian troops already fighting + 300 thousand volunteers being prepared to join them in about a week.. + the Wagner trying to recruit another 50 thousand..

But that is not all..the tricky part comes from these four regions officially joining the Russian federation; That means they are part of Russia now..and as we all know or some don't know..the Russian armed forces conscripts are not allowed to fight outside Russia.. but now they will fight on the new Russian territories..So at least 200 thousand of them from the 2 million Russian armed forces will join in to protect the rear of the fighting troops as well as guard important roads, ports, airports and other important facilities of the infrastructures..That is already 750 thousand Russian troops that will be present on the war front..This is very dangerous for the Ukrainians..

The end game has been defined for the first time.

Russia has clarified what it wants to do.

The war would have been less messy of Russia has defined those objectives earlier.


Objectives are to liberate Russian speaking areas of donbass. Russia has almost taken 70% of that area already

If it fails to take more it will escalate to carpet bombing or tactical nukes and noone will be able to do anything about it

On top of that gas is just going to get more expensive with Opec Russia cut

 

[Paul2]

Escalate with carpet bombing and tactical nukes.

Carpet bombing, and nuking what? The biggest blob of forces UA uses in the field is less than a batalion.

From the very start, I believe they were very cognizant of russian area fires advantage.

They will have to expend nukes on individual companies, staying kilometres from each other. Even after they spend half of their known arsenal, I don't see how they can secure a concrete advantage.

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577748803666563072

Strimosov, deputy head of the military administration of the Kherson region and one of the contributors to the annexation of Crimea to Russia:
All villages in the Kherson region will be liberated soon, and we will reach the Mykolaiv and Odessa regions. Believe me, it is only a matter of time.
@id7p_

 

[925boy]

so question is what will Russia do ?

With the mobilization of hte full 300K soldiers and some more weeks, probably 10-30, Russia will disable the low self esteem fake state of Ukraine.

Btw, i dont dislike Ukraine, i have met and know Ukranians who married Nigerians in NIgeria, and they are really nice people. i hate Ukraine's national weakness to NATO and US's pressure, because now, Ukraine is irreversibly deformed and destroyed, but no apologies for that, because Ukraine knew that would happen if it didnt negotiate seriously with Russia, which it didnt do.

 

[ziaulislam]

Carpet bombing, and nuking what? The biggest blob of forces UA uses in the field is less than a batalion.

From the very start, I believe they were very cognizant of russian area fires advantage.

They will have to expend nukes on individual companies, staying kilometres from each other. Even after they spend half of their known arsenal, I don't see how they can secure a concrete advantage.

I know ukraine has no population
Yeah sure 10,000 nukes are nothing

Seems you get dumber and dumber.

 

[Paul2]

The other very interesting opportunity few people seem to notice, is that UA can well venture into russia, and mess up Millerovo, and Kaminsk-Shakhtinsky — two vital logistic bases which Russians have built well before the war.

If they can deny Russia the M-4 road just for a month, that will already be a knockout blow.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

The longer the war, the better for Russia. With Ukrainian men drafted and serving on the front, Ukrainian women cannot get pregnant and have kids. 10 years from now, due to very low birth rate, Ukraine's population fall to less than 20 million. By then Russia's population grows to 160 million. 8 times man power advantage. The worse the man power disparity, the more Ukrainian men get drafted. The more Ukrainian men get drafted, the worse the man power disparity. Ergo, a vicious cycle.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577760071353831439

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577761849088610312

 

[jhungary]

For Ukraine, gaining territory was relatively easy after they exhausted RUAF offensive potential.

I would argue, their overall strategic priority after March until Kharkiv offensive was to deny RU easy attack, and manoeuvre opportunities, rather than counterattack above all.

Now russians have spread themselves wide, because they themselves wanted to go on the defensive.... and here UA turned the table by throwing 10 brigades at a time enfilading thin defensive lines.

Answering your question now, the battle now will go for the next 10% of the territory, and after that, I bet, Kremlin will lose interest fighting for puny 5%, since Kremlin can't brag with a square face about wasting the entirety of world's №2 military for puny 30000 square kilometres of land.

The entirety of Khesanh province will almost certainly be going back to UA until the end of this month. AFU will also almost certainly be able to push past Krasna river, and reach Bila before the winter. That will be around another ~5%.

If UA will be able to herd RUAF into around 12% of remaining occupied territory, their advantage in long range fires will start to snowball.

Just 100-200 thousand untrained troops without tanks, and artillery would have zero chances to change the situation. It will be a slaughterhouse, especially if they will try to push conscripts into open fields in the south.

The best Russia can do is to stuff urban parts of Donetsk, and Luhansk with those new conscripts, and bid for time. Any other attempt at "Zerg Rush" is already doomed since AFU have already cleared the only remaining major area in the country where vehicles are at disadvantage. After UA will retake Starobilsk, RU will have close to none opportunities to employ infantry in the field.

If russian conscripts were ready just 2 months earlier, they could've bid for holding the Severo — Luhansk line, but now UA will have easy times cutting their supply lines in towns long the Siverskyi Donets river.

The single biggest problem for Russia is Ukraine reached local numeric superiority in Kherson and Kharkiv as of now, that's the reason why the Russia press untrained reserve into frontline with minimal training and hoping these recruit will make up the number and save the day.

Problem is, Ukrainian force is highly mobile, as we can see from how they materialise the Kharkiv Counteroffensive. And the lack of manpower will simply not be solved by putting more body in the area and increase their troop density. As I have explained before, the problem Russia facing is not lack of resource, they are, at this point is due to inept leadership and logistic problem.

For example, The Chechen guy said on his Telegram channel and blame the Kharkiv loss on the commander of Western Military District, because he has moved his HQ from Kupiansk to Staroblisk. But the problem is, as we can clearly see from the speed and progress of the Ukrainian maneuver, the number of 1st Guard Tank Army (which was supposed to hold Kharkiv) were just not there, and it would be stupid to post his HQ that close to the frontline and had he done that, his ENTIRE Western Military District will collapse, because he would have been captured and his HQ destroyed.

On the other hand, Russia cannot move 300,000 troop in theatre, according to my source, a lot of these recruit would stuck at regional depot for days and sometime weeks, to be deployed, especially bad in Kherson region, because both line of communication was cut, they can some time ferry 100 men across to Kherson a day, sometime none.

The only way Russia can turn this around conventionally is for them to pull enough troop and attack on a new axis, that's would have the most concentration of force they can logistically give to make any meaningful push, but then the problem is, there are only one flank they can go, which is north thru Belarus again, and that place now have 10 Brigade waiting (as i said before there were 6 line up in the border between Lutsk to Chernihiv + 2 in Kyiv now they also have reconstituted 24 Air Assault and 106 TDF) I don't like the odds of any attempt Russia try to breach the Belarussian border again. Because even the UKrainian are preparing for it. This will make it time a lot harder than back in February this year

 

[Paul2]

The single biggest problem for Russia is Ukraine reached local numeric superiority in Kherson and Kharkiv as of now, that's the reason why the Russia press untrained reserve into frontline with minimal training and hoping these recruit will make up the number and save the day.

Problem is, Ukrainian force is highly mobile, as we can see from how they materialise the Kharkiv Counteroffensive. And the lack of manpower will simply not be solved by putting more body in the area and increase their troop density. As I have explained before, the problem Russia facing is not lack of resource, they are, at this point is due to inept leadership and logistic problem.

For example, The Chechen guy said on his Telegram channel and blame the Kharkiv loss on the commander of Western Military District, because he has moved his HQ from Kupiansk to Staroblisk. But the problem is, as we can clearly see from the speed and progress of the Ukrainian maneuver, the number of 1st Guard Tank Army (which was supposed to hold Kharkiv) were just not there, and it would be stupid to post his HQ that close to the frontline and had he done that, his ENTIRE Western Military District will collapse, because he would have been captured and his HQ destroyed.

On the other hand, Russia cannot move 300,000 troop in theatre, according to my source, a lot of these recruit would stuck at regional depot for days and sometime weeks, to be deployed, especially bad in Kherson region, because both line of communication was cut, they can some time ferry 100 men across to Kherson a day, sometime none.

The only way Russia can turn this around conventionally is for them to pull enough troop and attack on a new axis, that's would have the most concentration of force they can logistically give to make any meaningful push, but then the problem is, there are only one flank they can go, which is north thru Belarus again, and that place now have 10 Brigade waiting (as i said before there were 6 line up in the border between Lutsk to Chernihiv + 2 in Kyiv now they also have reconstituted 24 Air Assault and 106 TDF) I don't like the odds of any attempt Russia try to breach the Belarussian border again. Because even the UKrainian are preparing for it. This will make it time a lot harder than back in February this year

If Russia is denied access to already overloaded M-4 road, and rail, they will have no choice, but to move supplies from as far away as Volgograd over rural roads, and too will be endangered by a single blown up bridge. USSR did intentionally not build too many bridges across Don river, fearing Barbarossa repeat.

They are hanging by a logistic shoestring.

 

[kingQamaR]

With the mobilization of hte full 300K soldiers and some more weeks, probably 10-30, Russia will disable the low self esteem fake state of Ukraine.

Btw, i dont like Ukraine, i have met and know Ukranians who married Nigerians in NIgeria, i hate Ukraine's weakness in NATO and US's pressure, because now, Ukraine is irreversibly disformed and destroyed, but no apologies for that, because Ukraine knew that would happen if it didnt negotiate serious with Russia, which it didnt do.

Using 40 - 50 year old Russian kit against modern weapons , not surprised and A conscripted army will never beat a free army

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577654976255590400

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577672383678320645