Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569918812660862979

another level of cope cage

 

[ZeGerman]

Regarding kerch bridge. What would be needed to bring that down? (Or make it impassible). Can himars/artillery do the job over time?

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569957813379600384

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569961594787856385

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569962205218488324

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569962727392813057

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569966644675354625

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569968902079238145

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569986829113520128

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569986829113520128

Can you recall the last time Putler went to the front to support his troops ?

 

[jhungary]

Interesting - early days - but Ukraine will be keen to break the landbridge for Crimea to undermine the strategic objectives and logic of the war for Russia. It is also possible that Russia is regrouping to launch an offensive with the resources it has left and therefore there maybe one more move left of the chessboard for Russia before winter sets in and the war will go into some kind of standstill..

The reason why I said it's interesting is because Melitopol is closer to Crimea than to the Frontline, it was never in danger from being overrun by the Ukrainian. There are serious Partisan activities in the area but it was around 70km from the frontline give or take.

The troop withdraw toward Crimea, not moving ahead to the frontline in Zaporizhzhya, I just can't think of why. Hollowing out Melitopol does not really make sense, as there are no more than 1000 troop station in Melitopol, It does not really make sense as regrouping for an counter offensive, or does it work to use that force to reinforce Kherson or Donbas.

Not sure why the reason Melitopol is being evacuated.

Regarding kerch bridge. What would be needed to bring that down? (Or make it impassible). Can himars/artillery do the job over time?

HIMARS can damage the bridge but cannot bring it down, you can bomb the bridge with fighter jet and it may be down from the airstrike, or you can use cruise missile to bring down the bridge.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Can you recall the last time Putler went to the front to support his troops ?

Remember according to Putin they’ve “lost nothing.” Those soldiers lives mean nothing to him.

 

[ZeGerman]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569986829113520128

Winston Churchill vibes how he stayed and kept leading the country during the dark days of invasion.

The reason why I said it's interesting is because Melitopol is closer to Crimea than to the Frontline, it was never in danger from being overrun by the Ukrainian. There are serious Partisan activities in the area but it was around 70km from the frontline give or take.

The troop withdraw toward Crimea, not moving ahead to the frontline in Zaporizhzhya, I just can't think of why. Hollowing out Melitopol does not really make sense, as there are no more than 1000 troop station in Melitopol, It does not really make sense as regrouping for an counter offensive, or does it work to use that force to reinforce Kherson or Donbas.

Not sure why the reason Melitopol is being evacuated.


HIMARS can damage the bridge but cannot bring it down, you can bomb the bridge with fighter jet and it may be down from the airstrike, or you can use cruise missile to bring down the bridge.

Does ukraine have the fighter jet bomb/cruise missiles needed in inventory?

 

[SalarHaqq]

If Russia only loss 5700 and Ukrainian loss in Hundreds of thousand, then how or why Russia loss those territories?? How they mount an counter offensive to begin with? Well, actually, they had mounted two......

There's no necessary logical correlation between these propositions. Expanse of land controlled and extent of casualties incurred can be very disproportionate to each other.

Dude, I mean, if you really, like REALLY believe in those number, which very clearly did not match the battle result. Then all I can say is that you simply believe everything you are told. If so, I have a bridge to sell you.

So the Ukrainian general is lying and the BBC is making numbers up? What for?

I tend to believe credible research findings based upon sound methodology, as well as credible sources. These tick the boxes.

 

[thetutle]

That's just the voyage. You still have to transport all the Humvee to Savannah, then load them onto the ship and then you have to account for the union break and so on. And then you have to unload and have them transport all the way across Poland north to Southeast. It will take months.....

Fort benning is 4 hours drive. Ship is roll on roll off. so no unions. Soldiers can do it. 6 hour drive across Poland.

 

[jhungary]

Fort benning is 4 hours drive. Ship is roll on roll off. so no unions. Soldiers can do it. 6 hour drive across Poland.

Man, I wish loading on/off a military ship is as smooth as you think.

I still remember I was sitting for 8 hours on dockside shipping out to Kuwait with my Bradley......

There's no necessary logical equivalence between these propositions. The expanse of land controlled can be very disproportional to the extent of casualties incurred.



So the Ukrainian general is lying and the BBC is making numbers up? What for?

I tend to believe credible research findings based upon sound methodology, as well as credible sources. These two tick the boxes.

Well, first of all, that's not research......I mean how can you tell from how many troop Russian loss by gravesite dug in Russia? Condolence Message?? What about Russian troop that was buried in Ukraine?? What about people don't go online? That is not even a valid measure on how many troop was killed. You look at how many new guy being brought in to replace the loss occurred, that's a way more accurate estimation.

As for the general comment, I watched that original interview, first of all, he is giving a ballpark figure, and he also said it was casualty. Not killed. (Casualty means Killed, Wounded and Missing) It was taken out of context judging from what you said (I don't speak French so I don't know what your video are saying).

Again, if you believe in this war Russia loss 5700 soldier because someone did a very quick search on how many new gravesites and how many online condolences, well, then. Again, I have a bridge to sell you...

And finally, land lose and gain and holding said land have to do with proportional to the casualty received. You cannot expel the enemy if your combat strength is not effective, nor would enemy gave up ground if their combat power is effective. And if Ukraine really do loss hundreds of thousands of soldiers, lost, not just wounded, then who is stopping the Russian advance? And who is launching the 2-counteroffensive??

Does ukraine have the fighter jet bomb/cruise missiles needed in inventory?

Ukraine have cruise missile, but I doubt they can go that far and bomb that bridge.

 

[SalarHaqq]

Well, first of all, that's not research......I mean how can you tell from how many troop Russian loss by gravesite dug in Russia? Condolence Message??

This is what social scientists refer to as empirical field research.

What about Russian troop that was buried in Ukraine??

Their relatives don't receive condolences from friends and comrades?

What about people don't go online?

The BBC's team of investigative journalists didn't confine themselves to online content.

That is not even a valid measure on how many troop was killed. You look at how many new guy being brought in to replace the loss occurred, that's a way more accurate estimation.

It's a measure of publicly confirmed troop deaths.

As for the general comment, I watched that original interview, first of all, he is giving a ballpark figure, and he also said it was casualty. Not killed. (Casualty means Killed, Wounded and Missing) It was taken out of context judging from what you said (I don't speak French so I don't know what your video are saying).

After verification the video I linked to is also saying losses, but assuming a wounded to killed ratio of 10 to 1 which is a relatively high one, several hundreds of thousands of casualties would imply at least 20.000 Ukrainian lost their lives.

Again, if you believe in this war Russia loss 5700 soldier because someone did a very quick search on how many new gravesites and how many online condolences, well, then. Again, I have a bridge to sell you...

Who says it was a very quick search rather than a series of extensive long-term surveys? Also it appears these weren't the only two criteria they looked into. They tracked any indication they could find. It's a valid estimate that offers a good approximation.

 

[jhungary]

This is what social scientists refer to as empirical field research.

That was a probe. Not a Research.

Their relatives don't receive condolences from friends and comrades?

Yes, but is there are rules that you have to do it over the internet?

How about going to the person's home and offer it yourselves? Or write a letter? Or you simply don't know your friend's relative was killed?

The BBC's team of investigative journalists didn't confine themselves to online content.

But did he ask the entirety of the Russian population??

Because you are claiming Entirety of the Russian death, so they MUST BE talking with everyone in Russia to find out how many of them offered condolence on dead relative?? Otherwise that's a representation, not an entirety.

It's a measure of publicly confirmed troop deaths.

Umm......no.

After verification the video I linked to is also saying losses, but assuming a wounded to killed ratio of 10 to 1 which is a relatively high one, several hundreds of thousands of casualties would imply at least 20.000 Ukrainian lost their lives.

First of all, there are no "several hundred thousand" seeing the entire Ukrainian Military themselves only in "Several Hundred Thousand" if that is true, then either half or all the entire Ukrainian military are casualty. Depends on how you interpret the term "Several Hundred Thousand" If so, who's doing the fighting now? Russian should have won and the war is over. You can't fight a war with half your army being casualty.

Second of all, as I said, you need to factor in response in operation, you cannot have underman unit attacking a full unit, or you have suffer immerse casualty during an attack and still succeed. Sure, outlining event does exist, but if Ukraine really do suffer that kind of casualty (Those are small by the way) then it would be the Ukrainian in retreat, not Russian.

And finally, there is already a thread on Russian and Ukrainian casualty, and you can look up more "Resonable" number by a certain degree than this.

Who says it was a very quick search rather than a series of extensive long-term surveys? Also it appears these weren't the only two criteria they looked into. They tracked any indication they could find. It's a valid estimate that offers a good approximation.

A good approximation would need a large amount of data set, and a consistency of data, this have neither. I used to process data for a living as my job is to interpret Military Intelligence. First of all. you cannot get a good approximation by trying to local new gravesite as that really don't represent anything, also you will need to have coverage large enough to have enough possible data to be factor in, given the size of Russia, if that BBC team really did that in 6 months, then I will say they are probably god of data, either that or they are the most efficient and hardworking worker I have ever knows.

And finally, if I track a specific indication, that mean I am focus on that, again, you are arguing the entirety, ie the Russian loss for the ENTIRE war. How are you going to do that if you are imply tracking any indication, as by nature, all indication is passive.

 

[RoadAmerica]

Russia has 4 times the population of Ukraine, with millions of unemployed. They don't need a full mobilization to have sufficient man power. The new 3rd corps is a good example. With incentive of cash or even reward of plots of land in Ukraine, as well as a chance to be a hero which ups your chance of getting a nice lady, plenty of poor and unemployed folks sign up to join.

More fake news

Not yet. The Russian dog has a lot of fight in it. Refer to WW2 Germany vs USSR war.

Not the same army or haven’t you figured that out yet.
Russias military has proven to be hollow

 

[kingQamaR]

A brilliant feint by Ukraine. Get the Russians beefing up one part of the front, then attack the area weakened by troop withdrawals. Yet more huge failings by Russian intelligence services.